AVAX MVRV Detailed Analysis AVAX 1W MVRV and Price Analysis
Hi folks,
Let's take a look at some on-chain data.
What is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)?
MVRV is an on-chain indicator used to analyze the valuation of cryptocurrencies. It is a simple but powerful tool that shows investors how overvalued or undervalued a cryptocurrency is at the moment.
Simply 👇🏻
MVRV is below 1: This means that most investors are at a loss and can be interpreted as a potential buying opportunity.
MVRV is above 1: This means that investors are in profit and the price may be overheating.
However, when performing cyclical analysis of each instrument, we can see that different MVRV levels are critical. In instrument X, 1.15 may indicate that the price is overheating, while in instrument Y, 2.00 may indicate that the price is overheating.
Now let's examine AVAX with MVRV Data
In the bull rally we experienced in 2021, AVAX had risen from $5 to $150.
When we examined the MVRV, we witnessed that it had risen from 0.64 to 1.27 points.
When we examine AVAX historically, we can observe that the price overheats when the MVRV score exceeds 1.11 points. However, it should not be forgotten that we are making this examination on weekly data. Therefore, selling everything you have when the MVRV score exceeds 1.11 points will NOT help you maximize your profit in a bull run.
Instead, strategies can be created for gradual selling along with the MVRV score exceeding 1.11 in AVAX. It may be beneficial to do this in 5 or 10 steps. From now on, it is up to you.
Conclusion
In conclusion, by examining the MVRV score of an instrument, we can deduce that investors are at a loss if the price is below 1 (relatively cheap), and relatively profitable if it is above 1.
Historical examinations made specifically for the instrument help us to understand where the price of an instrument heats up based on the MVRV score. In this way, we can create a gradual selling strategy specific to the instrument.
When we look at AVAX, we can see that it offered selling opportunities after 1.11 points in the previous bull run. Following the 1.11 points closely can be beneficial for investors in this bull run.
Thank you for reading.
On-chain
AGLD On-Chain ThoughtThis may be a esoteric thought and/ or conclusion
There tends to be a divergence between the price of AGLD and Whale assets
Now there is something of note in this that is super important.
I am unsure on the quality of these on-chain metrics and for that matter the coin itself
Now with that being said it does have high beta and massive surges in price, but for one only investing with spot it is hard to manage.
Now lets get out the crystal ball and say if it were to be a parabolic run and it was highly correlated to BTC we could see it break ATH levels
Looks like a bad coin but doesn't mean there is no money to be made
I also doubt that these metrics inherently hold ANY alpha since they don't appear to front run, etc, etc.
That's why quant exists, going to have to look a lot further and even see if its worth buying in the medium and long-term.
Halving time: The Next ATH in 2025 120,000based on halving time, the next bull run we'll occur on April 1, 2024.
The new ATH will happen 43- 74 weeks after Halving Time (2025). With this estimate, bitcoin will be around 110 to 135 thousand dollars on the next ATH
P.S. I used to New onchain Metric:
1- BTC New Supply: Onchain - you can find it in the below link:
2- Supply weighted moving average:
I will publish it soon
Ethereum ETH 40-50% In-Loss-TrendlineEthereum ETH 40-50% In-Loss-Trendline
Interesting to see which chart picture we see if you connect all price levels of the whole ETH past where 40-50% of HODLer and Trader were out of the money (positions in loss).
And more interesting where we are today - will we bounce dear Crypto Nation?
Source of data from intotheblock.
Drop me a nice comment if you'd like me to analyze any other cryptocurrency.
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
New BTC Hasrhate ATHHashrate recorded a new ATH, although this is not clear on TV chart for some reason other sources I use for on-chain data like cryptoquant confirm yesterday we had a spike above previous high on 13th of Feb (you can see my trade idea linked below). As per my previous analysis this is a highly likely indication a further drop in Bitcoin's price is imminent, adding FED's meeting on interest rates next week to the mix it is a very probable scenario to play out with equities continuing their march downwards.
BTC Options expiry is on the cards on Friday morning with 40k as max pain price, hence if anyone is planning to play this short I would set my limit orders between 40-41k. Target range for this move down is 32-35k, but watch the price action once we get closer to 36k.
AAVE at next sell-off ??AAVE at next sell-off ??
December 27th 2021 we had 30.08% in profit - that was the last local high.
Today 31.88% are in profit - will we see profit taking soon?
What do you think?
On-chain data by @intotheblock
Drop me a nice comment if you'd like me to analyze any other cryptocurrency.
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Ethereum ETH with room to grow - addresses in profitEthereum ETH with room to grow - addresses in profit
Putting on-chain data by @intotheblock on the daily chart we see enough room to grow for ETH according to the last sell-off situation on November 9th 2021.
Currently 77.26% are in profit - November 92.87% have been in profit as taking profit started.
Tell me if you like these charts - will analyse more Crypto for you.
Drop me a nice comment if you'd like me to analyze any other cryptocurrency.
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Bitcoin BTC with room to grow - addresses in profitBitcoin BTC with room to grow - addresses in profit
Putting on-chain data by @intotheblock on the daily chart we see enough room to grow for BTC according to the last sell-off situation on November 9th 2021.
Currently 71.80% are in profit - November 97.63% have been in profit as taking profit started.
Tell me if you like these charts - will analyse more Crypto for you.
Drop me a nice comment if you'd like me to analyze any other cryptocurrency.
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Loopring LRC with room to grow - addresses in profitLoopring LRC with room to grow - addresses in profit
Putting on-chain data by @intotheblock on the daily chart we see enough room to grow for LRC according to the last sell-off situation end of November 2021.
Currently 67.31% are in profit - end November 85.48% have been in profit as taking profit started.
Tell me if you like these charts - will analyse more Crypto for you.
Drop me a nice comment if you'd like me to analyze any other cryptocurrency.
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Pitchforks and the current Bitcoin MarketI've never been a huge Pitchfork fan, but as the logic say "If it's stupid, but it works....then it ain't stupid!". So same applies here. If you have followed my other ideas, you'd see I am bullish and I called for that 33-34k level to be a strong support.
Legend:
-As long as we are above the midline, we the trend is intact and it's bullish. You can use some of the Pitchfork channels as support/resistance lines.
Analyzing Bitcoin's macro market structure with SOPR Toolkit SOPR stand for Spent Output Profit Ratio. It’s a Bitcoin on-chain metric that shows whether Bitcoin spent outputs (UTXO’s) are being realized in profit or loss. It’s calculated by dividing realized value by the value at creation (price sold / price paid).
SOPR servers as a great short/mid-term indicator.
Using the Glassnode BTC SOPR Toolkit , we can get insight into Bitcoin's macro market structure using a long timeframe (100 day) moving average.
Indicator - Glassnode BTC SOPR Toolkit
SOPR Toolkit Settings:
- Chart: 1 Day
- Moving Average Length: 100
- Moving Average Type: Volume Weighted Exponential Moving Average (VW-EMA)
BTC - On-Chain Bullish but Price Action Weakly BearishFirst lets talk about on-chain: macro on-chain shows continued signs of accumulation. Supply continues to drop at a brisk pace and netflows are predominantly bullish. We are in the third round of strong accumulation since July. This is in contrast with the recent price action which is muted with a bullish sentiment. Key levels are marked.
In the past 24 hours price rallied twice to $59.1k in the past 24 hours, and swiftly rejected both times. This resistance level follows the macro channel that Bitcoin is trading in from the mid-October peak.
For Bulls: they are fighting a confluence of resistance immediately overhead. Bulls need to recover the 12h 20 EMA ($57.1k) for a short term win they can build a base of support from, and they need to close a daily over $59.1k to rally for a bullish reversal that can tackle the major resistance between $59k-$60k. Locally we also have a confluence of support levels between $56k-57k that might support the current price that can also posture bulls for a rally, but below there begins our bearish scenario.
For Bears: Bears need to drive price below $56k, and each level below is more bearish. The bottom of the local value range extends from $53.8k-54.8k and a decisive close under that risks falling into the bull market support of the the 20/21w MAs.
!Important Note! I am also watching the 20w SMA and 21w EMA, with them beginning to constrict, and if they invert thats a very strong macro market indicator that price will post a more significant drop with the possibility of a period of bear market conditions as we look for a floor.
Big Papi Comments: Based on the on-chain data I believe we are macro bullish but short term price action is to shake out greed to posture us for the next leg up. Open Interest finally began to fall off a little after posting a new high (higher than Feb>April) but is still stubbornly high and at levels only seen briefly in April at peak bull mania. I believe if we can't shake off more leveraged moonboys, we'll see more downside. It is a good sign that miners and longeterm holders continue to HODL, indicating that they expect more upside, or at least this isn't a highly profitable range to profit from, which for now removes them from the equation as potential selling pressure.
BTC-USDT Towards The Moon... 🚀🚀🚀Extraordinary months are waiting for Bitcoin
Take advantage of this opportunity with careful risk management because the fluctuations are very high, have your own plan from now on
Good luck
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
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Always do your analysis before trading, and this analysis does not mean investing.
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann
First of all, from an actuarial background (as conservative as it goes in finance), I’ve never thought one day I would be giving a bullish bias on such a strong resistance, hinting a potential breakout. Well, but here it goes. It’s rare for the market to have a prolonged short bias, which (by probability) is much a better signal to reply upon compared to long biases. Furthermore, we broke the triangle, and the twitter news, and the on-chain pickups, and some Chinese information channels we have… So, even with a $300 gap, and bearish divergences that yell a correction in the short-term, I’m going to call bullish here. At times, the short-term gain/loss becomes less significant compared to the mid to long-term potentials (by short-term, I mean within 7 days since that’s how often we publish).
Also, I would highly appreciate it if you can give us some feedbacks below, regarding which portion you would like to see more analysis on, or any parts you have questions on.
Key Fundamentals:
1. Smart money action:
Similar to last week, the on-chain smart money indicator is recently giving out accumulation signals. This indicates smart money has been accumulating during the past few weeks despite the price drop from 12k, and further indicates a strong support at 10k. This is a bullish sign for Q4. Price generally goes into a bullish trend when on-chain smart money accumulation is found. Can we drop in the short-term at all? If so, does that mean smart money made a dumb decision? Yes, then no. In Nov 2018, smart money accumulation is spotted at 6k, and price dropped to 3k in the next 2 months with more accumulation happening. While the BTC accumulated at 6k took an almost 50% loss, price soon rose to 12k+, generating a 2x.
Grayscale: raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). Even though $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. We’ll keep an eye out for Q3 stats, which hasn’t been released yet.
Aside from the Twitter (Square) $50M BTC purchase, Chinese smart money is also on the move.
2. Miner action:
BTC mining difficulty is now 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level (the 11%+ difficulty adjustment was made in September).
3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment remains neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still in a bull trend. As mentioned, 10.5k was hit in the past week, but the “decr. in supply” alert didn’t show up. With the current development, I wouldn’t wait for the alert for bull entry.
4. Margin & Futures Market Actions:
Daily chart speaking, the margin market has been on the bearish side since the drop to 10k. Even though mentioned often, I’ve never quite covered the significance of this situation. With longing being a much easier strategy compared to shorting, it’s much harder for the market to have a bearish sentiment compared to a bullish one (left alone the constant interest rate component). In other words, prolonged retail bullish sentiment may not turn into a bearish price action and the price may go up higher with the sentiment being more over-heated. However, prolonged retail bearish sentiment often turns into bullish price actions. We are still net bearish, which means more upward momentum. See the resemblance with early May 2019? If you don’t, you should investigate.
Also, believe it or not, at the current moment, BTC is overly bearish. Yes, after an 8%+ rise in the past 72 hours.
5. Global Market Impacts:
Let’s be clear. If the stock market drops 10%+, BTC will go down. For most investors, the hedge for low yield environment or political uncertainty is still gold over crypto. And even though BTC may recover quicker compared to stock indexes, the initial reaction is still likely correlated at this point.
So, the question becomes, “will stock indexes drop significantly in the presence of US presidential election, potential prolonged low interest rate environment due to COVID, and the heightened tensions with China?” I do think the two main factors to watch out for are the further US fiscal stimulus and the earnings season.
6. CME Gap:
Yes, there’s a $300 CME gap below us. However, given other bullish considerations, I’m not going to bet this gap closed in the coming week.
Key Technicals:
1. Similar as last week, short-term resistance at 11.9k. Support now at 11.2-11.3k (past resistance). SL for long could be set around 11k.
2. Elliot wave: see chart above.
3. RSI bullish:
Daily RSI looks bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are finding support above RSI’s MAs. MA up-crossed. If we do drop in price, there’s a strong support at MA & RSI trendline.
4. MACD neutral:
Bearish for the short-term. Bullish for the mid to long term.
Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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Number of unique Bitcoin addresses used dailyThis indicator uses QUANDL data to show the number of unique bitcoin addresses (wallets) used daily. It is an useful way to gauge long-term adoption trends.
