@nzdchf bears?after such impulse i believe that we can go lower; at least to the level marked on the chart
ON
$PLTR: Have we finally found our inflection point? (Do or Die)ARKK making a strong name for itself after the Jackson Hole meeting. Are we nearing the breakout point or will we continue to see more waiting and what will ultimately happen with the ARKK index at this juncture? We will see! Good luck traders :)
$PAGS: to make you BAGS?Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS is located) to pin point entries. On the technical side of things, keep an eye on entries in between the two trend lines in which the current candle stick is located between and stops outside of the bottom two trendlines. I'd look to scale in over the next couple of weeks and see how strong the dips in $IWM, $HYG and $EEM are to see how much continuation is possible to the upside. Good luck traders!
SUPPORT & RESISTENCE in one... What is it with the SemiConductor industry...?
This is support and resistance all in one... let's see what happens... I have no position...
TARGET HIT $ON @ 43.61 for 20..01% Profit in 47 daysTARGET HIT $ON @ 43.61 for 20..01% Profit in 47 days
Woooot!! I'll take it 💃🏻
🟢 ADDED to $ON NEW Target 43.61 for 20.1% (Risk Level - Med)🟢 $ON Target 43.61 for 20.1% (Risk Level - Med)
Additional add level @
Or double position at 29.74
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On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
Numbers with an A are places that are a good idea to add if you can.
Numbers with a D are places where you should double your position.
I start every position with .5 - 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
BITCOIN 😱 Grayscale BTC Unlocking 💣Unfortunately, the Bitcoin Dominance reversing higher in my previous update means that investors are moving into safety... due to bearish conditions.
Be mentally prepared if Bitcoin were to drop farther down to the $25,000 range. 😨
The Grayscale unlocking on July 17 has everyone spooked. Lots of Bitcoin will be released ($530M worth) to investors who are in massive profits. 🚨 I have a sense that traders are front-running supply hitting the market and are selling on any thrust upwards, which is why Bitcoin may be having a difficult time moving higher.
www.bybt.com
NEW POSITION $ON Target 44.34 for 19.71% $ON Target 44.34 for 19.71%
Or double position at 29.74
—
On the far right of the chart is my Average (Grey) Current Target (Green), and Next Level to add (Red) Percentage to target is from my average.
I start every position with 1% of my account and build from there as needed and as possible.
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
AMD will not disappoint, 93.75 TGTAs I previously mentioned on my SQ analysis, Semis have been hit hard regardless of great earnings. With semis currently oversold, I see semis run up for the next two weeks along with the likes of AMAT, TSM, QCOM, NVDA, ON, and IIVI. AMD beat earnings and has been taking INTC customers for the past 2 years. INTC is in panic mode trying to regain back their market share. AMD server/pc chips are faster and much reliable and cheaper. Semi shortages is an issue but with current earnings handily beat expectations, I don't see this as an issue moving forward as demand outweighs shortages. See EBAY, StockX, and FB markets for GPUs and CPUs. People still buy them at over 200% retail. China, Taiwan, US coming out of Covid pandemic, ramps up chip production in Q2. A bullish Doji on Friday with good volume. Shorts will get squeezed out at 83.52.
$ON Back to the trading range?ON bounced off the daily 8 EMA last week, but it's in a bull-flag formation at the moment. I would like to see a stronger decline in volume in the next few days, for ON to go back down to the range it had been trading for a month, in order to cool off indicators before ER and get ready for a move higher. This bull flag could be breaking out any day, but so far indicators show a little bit of cooling off before that happens. Anything below the trading range on the chart, should be a change of trend to the downside.
$ON Breakout Retest Bounce PT $50-$52$ON ON Semiconductor Corp
Broke through ~$42.30 resistance last week...appears to have successfully retested that level as support today (combined with 9d ema line support).
Beautiful setup with a high probability of a bounce from here. Note: a close back below ~$42.30 would negate this setup.
Near term target: $50-$52 range possible by end of April (16%-21% return)
Note: This is NOT investment advice. Educational only.
Investment tips/lessons on bitcoinThis tips/lesson applies to every stock or crypto or any other financial instrument, that you truly belive in and have done your own research on.
Imagine you are a late #bitcoin investor and on the 28th of May you decide to invest in bitcoin, first you should set yourself a long term target. I have shown on the graph an example of $33000 per bitcoin and here is my tips, how you should had invested to succeed and how much your investment will give you! Lets say you have a salary of $1000 per month and your investment is 10% of your income, so that should be $100, each month.
On 1st of June 2019 you purchase your first bitcoin at a price of $12000 that's 0,00833333, 2nd purchase 0,00914746, 3rd - 0,00960799, 4th - 0,01256281, 5th - 0,01136364, 6th - 0,01342282, 7th - 0,01333333, 8th - 0,00968992, 9th - 0,01219512, 10th - 0,01449275, 11th - 0,01136364, 12th - 0,01052632, 13th - 0,01111111, 14th - 0,00862069, 15th - 0,00862069, 16th - 0,00943396, 17th - 0,00649351, 18th - 0,00510204. So that's 1,5 year of investment and it equals to 0,18542112 btc which was $1800. 28th of December you reach your target and yor income will equal to $6118 ($33000*0,18542112). So you have gained *3 of your investment, after only one year and a half, it's not bad! What do you think?
Thats a little secret how to be a success and you don't have to trade
Bitcoin update, Corrective waveIn the next few days, bitcoin will have a correction, by technical analysis, I can admit that bitcoin is hitting a peak of wave 5 in the elliot wave. So coming when bitcoin goes wave B the altcoin market will bullrun. Then the whole market will enter a big correction wave
OIL SELL Resistance is in... WARNING!!! SELLERS INCREASING!!!Here we go... Pop corn ready !?
HAPPY TRADING! MORE TO COME.
BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann
First of all, from an actuarial background (as conservative as it goes in finance), I’ve never thought one day I would be giving a bullish bias on such a strong resistance, hinting a potential breakout. Well, but here it goes. It’s rare for the market to have a prolonged short bias, which (by probability) is much a better signal to reply upon compared to long biases. Furthermore, we broke the triangle, and the twitter news, and the on-chain pickups, and some Chinese information channels we have… So, even with a $300 gap, and bearish divergences that yell a correction in the short-term, I’m going to call bullish here. At times, the short-term gain/loss becomes less significant compared to the mid to long-term potentials (by short-term, I mean within 7 days since that’s how often we publish).
Also, I would highly appreciate it if you can give us some feedbacks below, regarding which portion you would like to see more analysis on, or any parts you have questions on.
Key Fundamentals:
1. Smart money action:
Similar to last week, the on-chain smart money indicator is recently giving out accumulation signals. This indicates smart money has been accumulating during the past few weeks despite the price drop from 12k, and further indicates a strong support at 10k. This is a bullish sign for Q4. Price generally goes into a bullish trend when on-chain smart money accumulation is found. Can we drop in the short-term at all? If so, does that mean smart money made a dumb decision? Yes, then no. In Nov 2018, smart money accumulation is spotted at 6k, and price dropped to 3k in the next 2 months with more accumulation happening. While the BTC accumulated at 6k took an almost 50% loss, price soon rose to 12k+, generating a 2x.
Grayscale: raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). Even though $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. We’ll keep an eye out for Q3 stats, which hasn’t been released yet.
Aside from the Twitter (Square) $50M BTC purchase, Chinese smart money is also on the move.
2. Miner action:
BTC mining difficulty is now 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level (the 11%+ difficulty adjustment was made in September).
3. Market Sentiment:
Overall market sentiment remains neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still in a bull trend. As mentioned, 10.5k was hit in the past week, but the “decr. in supply” alert didn’t show up. With the current development, I wouldn’t wait for the alert for bull entry.
4. Margin & Futures Market Actions:
Daily chart speaking, the margin market has been on the bearish side since the drop to 10k. Even though mentioned often, I’ve never quite covered the significance of this situation. With longing being a much easier strategy compared to shorting, it’s much harder for the market to have a bearish sentiment compared to a bullish one (left alone the constant interest rate component). In other words, prolonged retail bullish sentiment may not turn into a bearish price action and the price may go up higher with the sentiment being more over-heated. However, prolonged retail bearish sentiment often turns into bullish price actions. We are still net bearish, which means more upward momentum. See the resemblance with early May 2019? If you don’t, you should investigate.
Also, believe it or not, at the current moment, BTC is overly bearish. Yes, after an 8%+ rise in the past 72 hours.
5. Global Market Impacts:
Let’s be clear. If the stock market drops 10%+, BTC will go down. For most investors, the hedge for low yield environment or political uncertainty is still gold over crypto. And even though BTC may recover quicker compared to stock indexes, the initial reaction is still likely correlated at this point.
So, the question becomes, “will stock indexes drop significantly in the presence of US presidential election, potential prolonged low interest rate environment due to COVID, and the heightened tensions with China?” I do think the two main factors to watch out for are the further US fiscal stimulus and the earnings season.
6. CME Gap:
Yes, there’s a $300 CME gap below us. However, given other bullish considerations, I’m not going to bet this gap closed in the coming week.
Key Technicals:
1. Similar as last week, short-term resistance at 11.9k. Support now at 11.2-11.3k (past resistance). SL for long could be set around 11k.
2. Elliot wave: see chart above.
3. RSI bullish:
Daily RSI looks bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are finding support above RSI’s MAs. MA up-crossed. If we do drop in price, there’s a strong support at MA & RSI trendline.
4. MACD neutral:
Bearish for the short-term. Bullish for the mid to long term.
Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis!
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BITCOIN 🚀 Above $9,500 is NOT a Bull Trap! 👨🚀On Balance Volume breaks above Resistance to confirm the Symmetrical Triangle breakout was not a Bull Trap! The longer the contraction, the more explosive the expansion...
FINDING THE BEST ROI BETWEEN SIMILAR ASSETS 📚 With Alpha's PoP💬Introduction :
Today we are comparing the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and the S&P by their annual performance to show how our open source indicator "Alpha Performance of Period" (PoP) can be used and why the results are useful. We will also look at other markets later in the writeup to see how they compare and to get a sense of which markets provide the best risk-to-reward and ROI.
The idea here is to compare highly correlated markets over time to see which of these markets preforms the best overall represented by a period chosen by the user. This will help tell us which of these indexes is the best/worst to trade/invest with on average.
For this article we will assume "best" equates to "best for long positions", but the indicator could be used for other purposes such as best shorting opportunities (largest drawdown amounts).
Comparing these indexes shows that the NASDAQ has historically outperformed, while the DOW underperformed, and the S&P has been somewhere in the middle since the tech bubble on a year-over-year basis.
You can also see this on the chart as represented by the indicator's metrics contained within its label, but we will summarize it below:
NOTE: The figures below are rounded up to the nearest .01%, see charts for exact %'s.
Equity Indices Total Annual performance results: (main chart)
(Jan. 2000 - present)
SPX = +111.79%
NDX = +156.10%
DJI = +117.65%
Now let's look at the quarterly and monthly performance:
Equity Indices Total Quarterly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
SPX = +104.57%
NDX = +160.75%
DJI = +111.65%
Equity Indices Total Monthly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
SPX = +91.22%
NDX = +125.274%
DJI = +101.68%
Equities Summary:
While the NASDAQ has had periods of underperformance (for example the dot com bubble burst), on each of the charts you can see that not only has the NASDAQ outperformed (and the Dow underperformed) over time, the NASDAQ has also generally outperformed during each different period measurement. We won't do the math for each period here as that's the main purpose of this indicator, but you can apply the indicator on your own chart and take a look at it yourself.
The main takeaways for us are this:
1. You are better off trading and/or holding the NASDAQ when compared to the 3 main indexes.
2. You are better off trading the S&P than the DJI.
3. The performance of the NASDAQ during COVID isn't an anomaly, and it doesn't necessarily indicate a tech bubble, outperformance in a specific period and overtime is the norm with this index.
Now that you see how this works on the indexes, let's showcase how it can work for other markets.
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RARE EARTH METALS~
Rare Earth Metals Total Annual performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
GOLD = 193.87%
SILVER = 186.72%
PALLADIUM = 361.27%
Rare Earth Metals Total Quarterly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
GOLD = 201.80%
SILVER = 197.60%
PALLADIUM = 304.04%
Rare Earth Metals Total Monthly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
GOLD = 206.59%
SILVER = 209.60%
PALLADIUM = 283.25%
Rare Earth Metals Summary:
As you can see, despite the general public's love of Gold, Palladium vastly outperforms it. Meanwhile, we can confirm Silver underperforms. Many people wouldn't suspect Palladium was superior, but we now know from the resulting data (Hooray!).
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FOREX~
Main Forex USD pairs Total Annual performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
EURUSD = 19.48%
GBPUSD = -9.03%
AUDUSD = 23.90%
Main Forex USD pairs Total Quarterly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
EURUSD = 20.75%
GBPUSD = -16.53%
AUDUSD = 20.98%
Main Forex USD pairs Total Monthly performance results:
(Jan. 2000 - present)
EURUSD = 19.57%
GBPUSD = -16.70%
AUDUSD = 21.93%
Forex Summary:
As you can see against a USD base-pair, GBP is the worst performing from the 2000's by all periods. One might assume the more popular EUR pair preformed better than for example AUD, but the reality is AUD takes the cake and preformed better than both EUR and USD by each period over time.
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CRYPTOCURRENCY~
Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Annual performance results:
(Jan. 2017 - present)
BLX = 1351.18%
ETHUSDT = 8967.62%
LTCUSD = 5012.80%
Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Quarterly performance results:
(Jan. 2017 - present)
BLX = 504.60%
ETHUSDT = 1124.81%
LTCUSD = 824.44%
Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Monthly performance results:
(Jan. 2017 - present)
BLX = 357.63%
ETHUSDT = 739.39%
LTCUSD = 530.67%
Crypto Summary:
Crypto has the largest period losses, but it also has the largest period gains (by far). Of all the crypto pairs, ETH offers the best ROI. Interestingly, ETH offers the best ROI of all markets mentioned in this article as well (although it also has the biggest losses and highest risk associated with its uptrends). Some might find it odd that Litecoin outperforms Bitcoin (although like with ETH, the drawdown is notably more intense).
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Conclusion:
Use "Alpha Performance of Period" (PoP) to compare markets for what is best suited to your portfolio depending on your individual risk appetite. It is meant to be used on highly correlated markets, but as you can see you can also compare different sets of markets together to get a sense of which offers the best risk-to-reward, ROI, etc. This tool thus has many uses related to figuring out which markets you want to trade based on historical data and offers a simple way to quickly compare past performance. Hope you guys enjoy it! :D
Resources:
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Sell AUDNZDEnter for a sell on AUDNZD when price correct the around the 50% fib level. Then you can be for sure that the sell is coming. If it corrects a little shorter then you can enter for the sell in that area.
