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USDJPY: Don't Sell...YetThe Yen continues to underperform all major pairs, including the Dollar. Yen weakness rather than Dollar strength is currently responsible for the gains that the Dollar has made, retracing some 700 pips off of the March lows. and, more recently, 230 pips off the August low. Technically we're looking at a potential alternative cypher pattern, though I make almost no trade decisions off of harmonic patterns. Currently the USDJPY -0.06% is up against resistance at the 112.00 handle, which is also the 68.1% fib retracement off the July 19th high. I've been on a short bias since I first posted about the pair after getting a short entry signal using my trading methodology, which you can read here. After briefly penetrating my entry zone, the Dollar rallied but has yet to invalidate the trade setup. I'll be watching the next week or so, monitoring what appears to be increasing Dollar weakness. My prediction is that we'll see a low-conviction rally up towards the supply zone (red rectangle ) with little to no momentum. If risk-off returns and investors begin purchasing the YEN than we'll likely see a USDJPY -0.06% sell-off. For now I'm holding.
by thetradeWELL
Bitcoin impact on altcoins on Ethereum exampleDear friends, I continue my series of forecasts. Anyone, who has trades in in the crypto market, faces hard times; many are just tired of waiting when this crypto nightmare will end and altcoins will at last start growing in price. Today, I’d like analyze Ethereum, and see how Bitcoin affects ETH price. Taking into account the recent extreme price jumps, featured by all altcoins, I’ll try to study ETHBTC pair not just as a trading instrument, but also as an indicator of altcoin market state. From the fundamental point of view, all cryptocurrencies are pressed now by Bitcoin that serves a transit window for many unsuccessful investors, who are disappointed in the cryptocurrency market and want to withdraw what is still left. You are likely to have seen this chart of cryptocurrency market cap, but I’ll present it once again. (chart here) As you see, since early 2018, the market cap is down from 800 billion USD to 200 billion at the moment; it means, first of all, lower prices for cryptocurrency assets themselves, and second, less amount of money in crypto economy. Amid the ongoing crypto collapse, there was a very typical news bit that Tether issued another $50 million. For those, who are not that good at economic sciences, I’ll explain that a cryptocurrency price is formed according to demand/supply ratio. In the current crisis, many are escaping to the cryptocurrency that is backed by fiat money. Growing demand for USDT results in deficit of these coins. Therefore, Tether has two options now: either set USDT rate free and let grow, following the demand, or cover the deficit by means of issuing more assets. As you understand, in the first case, the USDT close link to to real USD will be broken, and so, Tether, in fact, just can nothing else, as it doesn’t have anything to cover the deficit. Increased demand for USDT amid the reduction of cryptocurrencies market cap is a sure sign of panic in the market and escaping from risks. That is why altcoins look so weak, compared to BTC. Bitcoin serves as a passage between the cryptocurrency world and the Fiat, and many exchange altcoins for BTC only in order to withdraw their money. Ethereum situation is worsened by big proportion of coins, held by ICO owners. You shouldn’t forget that companies, conducted initial coin offering, are startups or operating businesses, which were raising funds for big expensive projects. Having acquired large Ethereum stacks, it would be reckless to dump everything at once in the market. However, general negative cryptocurrency context and fueled pessimism make investors go away from risks and exchange the budget, completely or partially, for USD and other fiat assets. I think this factor to be one of the main fundamental reasons for Ethereum weakness. On the other hand, Ethereum one of the top coins for mining. And now, when ETH price is breaking through all support levels and goes down directly, without any rebounds, even the advanced miners can give in to panic. (chart here) In the chart above, there is alternative.me Crypto Fear index. It is a rather complicated tool that takes into account volatility and trading volume in the market and the sentiment from social networks and other media. In the chart above, you see a line chart for BTCUSD. If you compare it to the Fear Index line, you can see an amazing regularity, when each new Bitcoin low wasn’t followed by new lows of Fear Index. How this signal can be interpreted? In common technical analysis, this phenomenon is considered to be a bullish convergence and is a pivot signal. In our case, this situation can be explained by that people are getting more confident in the idea that the last BTCUSD low is local, and that there won’t be second bottom. Unfortunately for Ethereum and other altcoins, even if Bitcoin price is growing, there still risks that the downtrend extends, instead of a reversal and a bullish rally. It explained by Bitcoin dominance in the crypto market and the general trend for accumulation BTC positions. (chart here) In the chart above, you see the capital is flowing from altcoins into Bitcoin at full power. The last local peak of Bitcoin dominance was as early as in December, 2017. Everybody, who remembers that time, knows how the market was going mad, as the common following bitcoin by altcoins was replaced by completely opposite situation; and when BTCUSD price was flying up, altcoins not only didn’t grow in price, but, on the contrary, their prices were corrected downwards, or staid still, at best. The chart above quite well shows this situation. In the first half of the chart, you see that up to its dominance peak, Bitcoin price was rising, Ethereum was staying almost the same or even falling down; after the that, the things were going on in the opposite way; Bitcoin downward correction was followed by Ethereum price rise. It was the same for almost all altcoins at that time, and was explained, first of all, by the fact that Bitcoin has lost logical link with the rest of cryptocurrencies, and continued increasing in price without any corrections. An internal driver, pushing Bitcoin price up, was obvious. AS it became known later, it was Tether that was issuing more and more USDTs, which, at first, were pushing BTC up, and then, we re-distributed among all altcoins. It was a paradox. Now, the situation is the same, only the trend is bearish. Bitcoin dominance is increasing, market is moving without any redounds, and new USDTs are being issued. All of these suggest that the situation may repeat, when the capital inflow to Bitcoin and issuing more and more new USDTs due to the panic demand will result in BTCUSD going up or, at least trading flat; and all altcoins will be falling down or breaking through lows. In ETHBTC monthly chart this situation is quite clear. You see, Ethereum price to Bitcoin has broken out the key level at 0.054. The next support level for Ethereum will be 0.029. Oscillators in ETHBTC one-week chart don’t suggest any support to the ticker. According to these signals, Ethereum is likely to continue falling down against Bitcoin. In Ethereum daily chart, there also no strong support levels. The ticker broke through 0.232 Fibo and went down; lower, there is only Keltner channel’s bottom border at 0.0297 December, 2017 low at 0.0239 BTC. Summary: ETHBTC price is flying down. According to technical analysis, there are no supports, that is, ETHBTC is likely to continue falling down after a short consolidation. The scenario can be changed only by a sudden buyout of Ethereum, if its price goes higher than 0.0543 BTC. But, taking into account the angle of drop and its strength, I don’t think it is likely. That is my trading scenario for ETHBTC In general, the situation for other altcoins is similar; but some certain assets have their special features, which can be crucial in the future. Which assets and what features? You’ll learn from next posts. Good luck and good profits! Best regards, Mikhail @Hyipov PS. If you agree with the forecast write “+” in the comments, if you don’t agree, put “-”. If you liked the post, just write thank you, and don’t forget to share the post with your friends. It is easy for you and I will be very pleased :) Stay informed on the latest cryptocurrency news, follow my posts in the blog.
by Hypov
4
Trading Major Markets on Margin Part 2 Trading Major Markets on Margin: Part 2 ...You need a game plan. You need a system. You need stops. You need to understand true risk management and try to keep it as simple as possible at the same time . You need discipline. You need courage to buy when others are selling and to sell when others buying - if the correct signals are present to do so. You need patience. You need belief proven by evidence. You need to test this by paper trading - or at least only trading the Dow for say $3 per point at outset. If so and you were to decide on risking this amount per point and the stop you used on the Dow was 50 points away then the loss is $150 in this instance if wrong. Look for trades that have risk/rewards of 3 to 10 times upside to 1 of downside whenever possible. The upside on the Dow trade from Friday was from 24860 back to the highs and in near term it was back to 25000 - maybe 140 upside and 20 points of risk with a stop 20 lower. Or at 50 points of risk it just about qualifies as a 3 to 1 shot. The low was 24852 on the futures. Sometimes it works and sometimes not. It really hurts to get stopped out and then the trade goes the way you originally thought it would. Really hurts. More than being plain wrong usually. But it will happen nevertheless. On the other hand you could have got long around 24641 on Thursday and have closed out at 25000 yesterday for 360 points profit = $1080 profit before 2 points in costs. The risk was between 20 to 50 points on the stop, so between $60 and $150 at $3 per point - so you know what you you stand to lose before the trade is initiated. When you test it 20 times with small small numbers and see it works - or it doesn't - you can decide on whether you have a system of trading bigger numbers or not. When you do, you can start to compound wins and losses and keep dividing total risk on ANY single trade to 5% of the total bank, 1/20th of the total bank. If you did this with the Dow as above, (when tested to satisfaction first!) and you staked $1k with 50 points of stop it means $1000 divided by 50 points = $20 per point x 360 = $7200 profit. For $1000 of risk. The 20k is now worth $27,200. Now you compound it and trade 5% of this on the next trade. It takes less than a year to turn 10k into 1m if you can be bothered and disciplined enough. You only need to be right half the time if the risk reward is right to begin with. Go do the math... There is no right way to trade. Just the one that suits your own profile and time considerations best. This is just one way. It does work though, most of the time : ) Be lucky, whichever way you choose.
DJ:DJIEducation
by sumastardon
Trading Major Markets using Stops and Margin: Risk/Reward RatiosTrading Major Markets 1 of 2 You've probably already learned a lot through trading Bitcoin. Those skill-sets are super scalable. Often am in too much of a hurry to cover other markets to have time to lay out stops and risk reward ratios - hoping that you're experienced enough to work them out for yourself when I miss doing them- which will be quite often in fast markets. There just isn't time except at weekends to cover things from a newbie's perspective. This analysis is meant to be for more experienced traders really. But for newer traders this is one way of trading technical signals. It isn't fool-proof. No system is. But it works well across multiple markets if used with discipline, and without emotion. But please don't believe mere words. If it interests you please test it first. 20 times. Calibrate your rifle sights/stops as per the pinned message at top of crypto pages and test tolerance levels of stops given. It will never be perfect though. We don't have to be either. Just close enough... Wave Trading and Wave Counting Don't really see where Elliott 'waves' figure in the great scheme of things or at the micro level either. Would like to. But have little evidence usually. But If Elliott floats your boat and you can trade off it that's great. Please share if so ; ) In the meantime smaller time scale signals are there to be traded. And if we trade them with stops and a system that works more often than not we can make good returns on half and more of the positive trades and yet limit losses on the ones that don't work out as planned. And by trading smaller moves we become part of and merge into the longer term. It's more fun to ride the smaller waves - they too become part of the bigger wave anyway. And if we can see a good Elliott wave amongst the noise all the better. If so, share it dude! Until then, if you can SEE that the stop is very close or ideally that price is right on it (limit down as with FB last week for example) then it's a SPECULATIVE buy with a stop close underneath the level given. It's 'speculative' because we don't know that this will be the bottom. In this respect 'breakouts', though still speculative, are less so than buying lows. We all want to do the latter: the buy low sell high mantra didn't make it to market mantra-hood by coincidence. But lows can be more difficult to spot than breakouts, which no one misses really. For example with the Dow recently it was around 20 to 50 points of stop if you were buying the dips, (see global markets link at top of main page) Some will just leave orders in the market with a decent stop - say if looking to buy the Dow within 10 or 15 points of a given level (cannot expect to be bang on every day, you know that already) - they leave the order to strike or not and then use a stop at least 20 lower on Dow and maybe 50 at most. And some stick in a limit order too at the same time as the stop. Sometimes it works well. Sometimes it never gets struck. And sometimes it's a big fail and we get stopped out for 20-50 points on the Dow. It takles a lot of the emotion out of the equation. Not all of it. But a lot of it. And if you can work out the RISK in points you can then work out potential rewards too. Then it becomes possible to divide your total bank into 20 - so 20k total bank for ease of explanation = 20 trades or bets of $1000 each at a maximum - for this is effectively what we are doing... Betting that our call is better than the market's call at that moment in time compared to some future moment in time. We don't have to be right much more than 50% of the time though we all want to be. If we can be stoical/philosophical about losses and wins and tread the line without thinking either we're too clever or too stupid we stand a better chance of handling the inevitable losses when they come. To think you're Billy-whizz of the markets and then discover you're not is way more disheartening than never thinking that crap in the first place... Part 2next
DJ:DJIEducation
by sumastardon
1
Monero vs USD Descending Triangle PatternIf you are trading cryptos, you know that a lot of cryptocurrencies are bearish but Monero vs USD could be one that turns the tide. The crypto is currently trading at the support level of a Descending Triangle Pattern at 167.750 and also showing a bullish divergence on the On Balance Volume. The current price action shows indecision at the level with a doji the past three days. Price is trading inside of the doji but furthermore the current price is trading an inside candlestick pattern. Coupled together with the other aspects mentioned, we could see a bounce at this level and price move higher. If price closes outside of the current Mother Bar then this could be confirmation that price may bounce and we can enter the trade long.
BITFINEX:XMRUSDLong
by ChaosTrader63
1
EURUSD: Lower Stop On Any Shorts/Use DXY as Signal ConfirmationEURUSD Update After rallying from the downside target off the 1.1721 line EUR has made it to the near term upside target centred around the 1.1821 line and been met with a barrage of persistant selling from there over the last 6 hours creating a series of rejection spikes above the line. If you shorted from here again lower the stop to 1.1787. It's been sold off in Europe all day - we need to see US follow through to know that downside pressure is still strong from here. Without it there's an increasing chance that it will push higher again from here before coming off again later - the next key area on the upside lies at 1.1831-1.1838 - a break above here needed to signal any further near term strength to 1.1915. The overall picture is still bearish for EUR but with DXY consolidating off 94 and with a little more unwinding there still likely it means that this this whipsaw back higher for a while yet before the downtrend resumes again
Short
by sumastardon
WTI: USOIL Still on Target for 86.33 but overbought near-termWTI USOIL After consolidating off the 66.48 line but never threatening long stops under here WTI has pushed 550 pips and more higher to 72.28 so far. It's a little overbought in the near term and looks like it will consolidate back to 70.69 and then bounce 150 pips or so - and then come back again, doing so 3 or 4 times before it pushes higher still. The overall trend is still positive and will remain so as long as 70.37 holds in the near term and at the worst the 69..48 line holds up on any retests from here. Swing traders can leave long stops below here and let it run for now towards 75.28 and eventually to 86.33 (which is the minimum upside target created by the reverse head and shoulders on last update).
TVC:USOILLong
by sumastardon
ETHUSD Still Beating Bitcoin - Even on a Down DayETHUSD Still Outperforming Bitcoin ETH rallied just under 100% from the resurrection day lows at 360 to high at 713. In that time Bitcoin rallied 50% or so. Today Bitcoin is down 3.7% at moment and Eth is down 2.9%. That's impressive price action by ETH for sure. So far at least. It should be double that decline but it's less than like-for-like. Whatever the current ratio, it still moves with Bitcoin - which has hold up at 8800 for ETH to stay overall positive too. At the moment despite losing the lower parallel and tripping over its edge Eth is holding up off the first support line at 625 - it's ralled from just above the line towards the underside of the parallel and been rejected. But it looks unlikley to break lower still unless Bitcoin in turn breaks below 8800. And if so, Eth would be likely to fall to 576 and the lower parallel of a potential flag in the early stages of formation where it becomes a buy again if tested with stops below by 5 points or so. Returning to the upside any break above the upper parallel of the nascent flag formation at 693 now would be very bullish and signal further nearer term strength to 869- 89. Eth is still outperforming though, as today's price action confirms.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Bad Friday turns Good on break above 7316 Bitcoin Good Friday? Some spectacular price action overnight with a massive counter rally from lows at 6630. No obvious reason for this rally either. No imaginary Fibo, no trend-line, nothing. It looks untrustworthy and has rallied to the spot where it should stop and fall away again at 7316. If still short can stay that way with stops above 7316 for now. The only way this can flip back to positive from here is by breaking above 7316 and holding (if we see this happen later on at any point we have to flip back to long once 7551 is broken to upside using stops at least 50 points lower). Until that happens this is a counter-rally in the downtrend and we can stay short looking for 6000-5879 range on Coinbase feed. Lower stop on short to 7110 to trap in profit now. Be ready on upside in case a FUD free weekend starts a bigger rally from 7316.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
11
AAPL: Buy Opportunity on Further WeaknessApple AAPL It took 18 months for Apple to double from the low at 91.5 to a highs at 180-183 before a 16% decine to 150 (WD Gann would have loved this stock as much as GE, probably;) Like FB, Apple has closed out the week sitting on top of the structure to its left. And in classical fashion, if the 165-164 levels fail to hold from here it's then likely Apple will fall away further, to 160 initially and then, after a bounce there, back to 155 and to 150 at lowest, most likely. Look to use any further weakness here in the early part of the week as a potential near term buying opportunity
NASDAQ:AAPL
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin BTCUSD Still Positive When It Breaks above 10600Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Next Buy Point Bitcoin has spent the last 24 hours or so hammering out a continuation pattern not too far from the recent highs. It hasn't collapsed from here, though, which has to be a positive signal, so far. It's now probing the upper parallel at 10600 and trying to break higher. To stay positive from here it has to make this break. If we see it we can follow with stops under the upper parallel by 50 points or so when broken. Otherwise, in absence of a break higher and Bitcoin spends more time in this consolidation pattern we will look for an entry from lower down later
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
3
Bitcoin BTCUSD On The Brink Next Buy and Sell Points TodayBitcoin BTCUSD Update Next Buy and Sell Points The overall technical picture has not changed for the better as yet. Bitcoin is now on the brink, staring at a large 2000 point abyss. Even at these lower levels where it found willing buyers late last week, today it finds none. Dead cat bounce. It's still a speculative buy at 7700 and close but only with a tight stop just under 7690 for small loss if wrong and ready to reverse this position to short if 7680 gives way looking for 7430 to begin with. Then once this level gives way it becomes an aggressive short back to 5591 whhere it should get a good bounce again. The other potential long entry point will come if 7700 continues to hold out - then need to see it take back 7945 line and hold up there and then break above 7820 annd hold again at 7945 on that next retest...then can look to enter longs with stops below 7900.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon