OBV divergence on ZILBTCThe rapid price increase is not supported by the on-balance volume. Expect reversal soon.
On Balance Volume (OBV)
DCR Decred huge divergence : Trading setup huge divergence in price/obv. step in after breakout. dont FOMO.
1ST Firstblood is bleeding hardohh man what a dead investment we see here? Not much to chart. OBV is confirming ongoing downtrend. But who is the one who is buying all the cheap coins? "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." Now ?
$CBKLooks like it could break out very soon. Close to crossing on the MACD, with an uptrend, and finally the OBV is higher then the previous high which could indicate a breakout coming.
Opening QQQ Sep 15 Bear Call Spreadwww.tradingview.com
Although QQQ tends to go its own way at times, it feels like a pause with the broader market. On the Chart The price has broken a long term rally and the same on On Balance Volume w ema. Both price and OBV are spending more time below shorter averages. Note the divergence OBV down when price up and now price looking to follow the volume down. I outlined the pennant on OBV it could be indicative of a change. Guess we will see which way :-).
The bottom indicator is just a histogram of OBV - weighted moving average of OBV. I find it useful to help read possible volume related triggers. The histogram crosses zero when the OBV crosses the wma.
This is neutral short as there is room for the price to go up and still profit.
Position:
short Sep 15 144 Call long sep 15 147 Call. This is a short (sold for net credit) vertical call aka bear call spread.
Theta 1.85 - all else being equal this says the position will gain $1.85 per session through net decay in premium. (Premium drops, I buy it back for less = profit)
max profit loss 113 / 187. Profit target is 50-55 approx 50%. The probability of making 50% is 74% so exiting there increases the win rate, reduces exposure and frees capital for other trades.
BTC Gameplan for Coming WeeksJudging on volatility pattern, blow-off top in running volume pattern and possible liquidity shortage due to regulation issues in China, market conditions on bitcoin are changing. Knowing bitcoin history one can easily deduct that such conditions are going to be very attractive for acccumulating BTC as it is going to get a relatively cheap and even riskless asset.
Looking at the chart one can see an obvious pattern that has already appeared a few times at this market and is likely to be forming right now as long as BTC is not fundamentally changing itself.
IVZ LongOn Balace Volume (OBV) shows that interest may be back in this great asset manager, which saw positive capital inflow as of the latest quarterly report despite an overall negative trend in the sector.
When volume rises, price generally tends to follow.
Noteworthy is also MACD which just crossover its signal hinting at a possible change of long-term trend.
Furthremore, the possible volatily ahead could also play as a positive catalyst on the active managed funds positioning Invesco to benefit further.
Should you want to discuss your ideas with me or give me any feedback, feel free to leave a comment!
Silver accumulationSilver price action has been quite flat for a few days now but there is an interesting fact to observe: it seems clear to be some accumulation in this area creating a solid support. You can see three different volume indicators all pointing upwards. OBV has been going up way faster than price and money flow index is coming back to bull territory.
This same feature is visible in XAUUSD
Wyckoff Accumulation Phases of Credit SuisseSome remarks on the price evolution of CS
Credit Suisse stock was in a downtrend which ended with a selling climax (SCLX) on February 11 this year. After that CS showed signs of being accumulated. The Brexit vote initiated a huge shake out. During this shake out it broke below its trading range, after which it trended back up into the trading range. Here it tested the 12.56 support twice; once on the Deutsche Bank fine news and also today after CEO Tidjane Thiam said he expects a challenging third quarter. Currently it is in Phase D, or alternatively it might still be in phase B.
Notice the volume peaks on down swings. This is a sign of buying pressure caused by the Composite Operator (or Insiders as Anna Coulling calls them) which buy in the lower end of the trading range, as discussed in the book "A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis " by Anna Coulling.
I posted this idea before (linked below).
On that chart you see the On Balance Volume indicator. Notice the explosion of the on balance volume for CS, right after the Brexit. And you know what they say: "volume precedes price".
I also labeled the chart of CSGNZ. Notice the differences in volume, particularly during the selling climax:
Some facts that support the hypothesis suggested by the technical analysis:
STRONG HANDS HOLDING CS
A very large part of CS shares is held by a few very large long-term investors that don't sell on weakness but use it to add to their core position (smart money). In fact they've added just recently. These kinds of buyers and shareholders explain the pattern we see in the CS and CSGNZ charts.
In the last couple of weeks more than 20 percent of Credit Suisse shares is owned by three shareholders:
Harris Associates (with David Herro as fund manager) owns more than 10 percent of shares ( August 22 , 2016).
The Saudi Arabian Olayan Group , through its registered entity Crescent Holding GmbH, holds more than 5 percent of shares and about 5 percent in convertible bonds ( September 12 , 2016) and is/was represented by someone on the board.
The Capital Group holds more than 5 percent of shares ( August 30 , 2016).
www.credit-suisse.com
www.thecountrycaller.com
www.finews.com
Besides these shareholders there is the state fund of Qatar that owns more than 5 percent of shares and about 13 percent in convertible bonds ( June 17 , 2016) and is represented by someone on the board.
Considering the long and intimate relationship of the Qatar state fund and Credit Suisse it is safe to assume they didn't sell in the past 3 months and this would imply no less than 25% of shares being owned by no more than 4 shareholders in the past month.
Another shareholder worth mentioning is the Norwegian Sovereign Fund (Norges Bank), which claimed beneficial ownership the day after the selling climax on February 11 (owning 5 percent of shares on February 12).
These are the shareholders that were required to file a Schedule 13D with the SEC, due to beneficial ownership. But I bet there are a lot of other institutions buying CS without reaching beneficial ownership.
Trading with the Trend, $NYXNyx Gaming Group has just had a 46% price increase in the past two weeks up until its peak. Price is now very overbought and as stated on the chart there are several bearish indications of why this is a good short sale. Also as you can see on the chart, price recently bouced back from the top lin reg line as it did a couple months ago. Price target is middle lin reg line.
CS is being accumulatedAfter a downtrend $CS reached multi-decade lows.
It appears that here Credit Suisse Group stock was, and still is, being accumulated.
Currently it looks to be completing phase C to enter phase D.
Trading with the Trend, $EDRAs you can see by looking at this chart, price action has been following the upwards linear regression channel. It has just bounced from trading at the bottom lin reg line and is showing several bullish indications as stated on the chart. My price target is around the upper lin reg line (green rectangle).
Trade valid until price closes below bottom lin reg line.
Trading with the Trend, $APH$APH, Aphria Inc. has been uptrending for months now. Using the lin reg lines you can see that it has bounced off of the top and has recovered using the mid line as a support. As stated on the chart there are several bullish indications and Im looking for a price target somewhere along the top lin reg line (green rectangle on chart).
Trade valid until price closes below mid lin reg line.
GOM Looking Very BullishGolden Dawn Minerals is showing a lot of bullish signs that it is ready for a potential new high. Support has been found at the 50MA as it has before, and the StochRSI is showing an oversold signal with the MACD about to cross to a bullish signal. Also I like this trade because volume has been continuing to increase and it is showing strength with a large bullish candle.
JCP Bullish TriangleBullish triangle on the JCP chart, watch for a breakout if the price clearly passes and closes above resistance. Chart also has clear indicators of a stong trend with the DMI showing an uptrend and the Aroon showing new uptrend. Would like to see an increase on the OBV along with the others for clarification of a strong trend though.
Horizontal Horizontal movement this stock looks good for swing and position trades. Or as an option trade straddles and strangles. However one interesting aspect is that the OBV is in a trend upward, precluding an long run trend.
Contrast Weekly vs Daily Timeframe OBV and RSI indicate a possible bounce to the upside. Keep eye on intraday for continuation downward or break to the upside. If you wanna play both sides a straddle or strangle option strategy two or three months out might be ideal. For a one sided trade check OTM (out-the-money) contracts and the Vol in the options contracts relative to the strike price before purchase - 220 and 125 or 200 and 140 strike price might be ideal. Also don't wait to long to purchases options contract, because as directional price movement becomes more apparent and as Implied Volatility creeps up the more expensive the options become.
(1D) XAUUSD v US30 - gold rush. There seems to be an inverse correlation between XAUUSD and US30. Interestingly Gold began taking off before the recent mini-crash. OBV on Gold was steadily rising whilst OBV on US30 was falling (even while price was recovering). BREXIT has caused deep uncertainty in a number of markets. GOLD has always been a major safe haven. We saw this at every major world financial crisis. They can't just print the stuff or do quantitative easing on GOLD - can they? LOL. I'm short on US30 and I've been happily long on Gold. My stop losses are in the right places relative to my account size. Cool.
Disclaimer: no liabilities accepted for losses arising by relying on this post.
(1D) US30 - WALL STREET - possible crash comingI'm no expert at Elliott waves, so my waves may be wrongly counted or drawn on this. But I'm watching a number of other things adding up. I see trend strength weakening. I see OBV probably heading down in a struggling bullish market. There is a similar wavy pattern emerging, similar to that around Nov 2015 to Jan 2016.
I'd be delighted if others who know more about Elliot Waves can help out. But do share any other ideas.
This idea is not a prediction .
