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On Balance Volume (OBV)

Short ATT? With Pleasure!AT&T is a terrible, clandestine company and they deserve to fail. This is not the reason I am shorting them, however. Since the downgrade on 10/09 the stock seems to have trouble achieving and maintaining new levels. Furthermore, the Ichimoku cloud indicates some resistance from above at 35.63 or so, there is a lot of room to spare before we reach that level. The OBV indicator tells us that there is decreased buying pressure, and the MACD has recently crossed over. Finally the RSI confirms that this is a 'sweet spot' to make a trade. For intermediary profit targets consider the two levels drawn from the lows going back to early October at 33.18 and 33.00, but note that after that, its smooth sailing through the vacuum area to the high of 10/02 at around 32.61. Stop losses may be set analogously using the relative high at 33.73, the Ichimoku cloud at 33.63, or if it crosses over the line segment forming the upper bound of the wedge.
NYSE:TShort
by quantguy
Worsening macro and technical divergence sreams for a short(THIS IS THE RIGHT ONE - THE OTHER ONE DOESN'T HAVE OBV OR SPY TARGETS. SORRY!) Sticking with the bearish case for US Equities I've made for most of 2015, I'm currently selling short a pretty significant position in SPY versus a long basket of Equities and bonds from the rest of the world. My rationale: 1. US Equities are still rich versus rest-of-world stocks in P/E ratios, even after the steep outperformance of DAX and NKY (among others) over SPX. 2. Real Money keeps adding big time to European and Asian mutual funds whilst withdrawing from US on the margin. The trend so far is evident on the divergence in stock prices and I expect it to continue. 3. Macro data in US keeps surprising on the downside over and over again... it made sense to 'buy the bad data' as a Fed put (specially on support zones), but aside from the macro impact, there's a significant impact of worsening economic conditions on corporate earnings that hasn't been priced into this market, IMHO. 4. Big divergences in RSI and On Balance Volume have been developing since late 2014; the market keeps climbing higher with diminishing momentum and buying volume. 4. Signs of strong resistance above 211 on SPY / 2110 on ES/SPX; since early March, the market hasn't closed decisively over this area. Initial targets of 207.50 and 206.60 as signals of money supporting the market. If broken, next targets will be 205 (lower Boll-band on the daily frame); 202.32 (200-day MA); and whatever price SPY will be trading at when it hits 30 on the daily RSI. Will use trailing stops accordingly if the position moves in my favour. Good luck trading.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Daniel_Urdaneta
3
BTCUSD setting up bullish, waiting for price to confirm.The key word of the last week has been whipsaw. This term is applied in trading circles when the price head’s in one direction, and then is quickly followed by a movement in the opposite direction. The price of bitcoin has entered a period of high volatility and is whipsawing all over the place. A few simple words here: traders beware. It is time to be vigilant and wait for the price to resolve it itself one way or the other and form a trend before putting money to work. The chart below shows how hard it has been to predict the price movement as we have moved from bearish to bullish back to bearish and are now back in the cloud. Right now price is bumping up against the top of resistance and a break through would be a bullish signal. The Lagging Line which is the slowest of the Lines has yet to pierce into the cloud and confirm a bullish move, if it does, that should mean we are seeing a bullish transition forming. Based on recent trading it would be prudent to look at other indicators to confirm the move. The chart below shows some indicators we will use to get confirmations in the event that price breaks resistance. The RSI is in bullish zone despite the recent downturn and is has plenty of room to run if the price confirms to the upside. Money Flow has been very bullish and continues to be so, as money has continued to come into bitcoin despite all the volatility in price. MACD is close to crossing over which would trigger a buy signal. What’s even more significant is that MACD is now in positive territory when making the cross over, so this is another potential bullish signal. On Balance Volume (OBV) is trending at a low level, an upside move in price should be confirmed with a rising OBV. Using other indicators to confirm is essential when analyzing charts particularly when we are a period of uncertainty and waiting for signals to trade. Conclusion We don’t have any definite trading signals as price has created a false breakout followed by a false breakdown. Price is now back in the cloud and rubbing against resistance. The weight of the evidence leans bullish and if price confirms a buy signal will be triggered. In the meantime, there is no need to rush into a trade. Price will tell us what we need to know soon enough.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sammantic
2
Priceline.Com -PCLN-Daily: On Balance Volume Saying Goodbye...Very strong selling is going on under the surface of PCLN. Although the price appears to be healthy and range-bound, it appears as if long term holders have liquidated their positions and now are waiting for prices to fall dramatically. I know it looks like I'm kicking PCLN when it's down, but it is still just "rolling over" on the long term chart. The uptrend has been thousands of percent and this is only less than 20% off the highest highs. Airline stocks rolled over and are very weak, so that bodes ill for all the stocks involved in the travel industry for the near term. The ATR is 23 points. If you use 1 ATR as a measuring stick, your stop can be about 3 ATR's away and your target might be about the same. The probability of hitting 3 ATR's profit versus the 3 ATR stop is the key in the long run: I'd presume about 75% chance of a win from this setup. That makes a good system in the long run if you can find enough trades to take. 1:24PM EST Wednesday, October 1, 2014
PEducation
by timwest
5
DAL Long - Bull Flag ConsolidationThe idea here isn't very difficult to understand. DAL has made a run up from $35.51 on August 8th, where we saw a bounce off the 150EMA, a personal favorite area to get long for me, especially looking at the weekly chart for this. Anyways, from the top down: 1) Bullish RSI Holding 60 Support 2) Established Uptrend - Long Term 3) Bounce off 150 EMA 4) Long $4.46 move straight up through all EMA(8/21/50), through resistance, and consolidating above. 5) Broken Downtrend 6)Weekly Uptrend Is Beautiful - Right At EMAs (8/21) (My Screen Is Too Small To Pull Up Both Simultaneously) Cons: 1) MACD Is Positive 2) Momentum Tapering As We Consolidate I like the chart, and like what I see. I'm getting long here. Possibly with a covered call, but maybe something else. Not sure what other plays are available with such low volatility, but the verticals and diagonals are getting old.
NYSE:DALLong
by TheProfitcy
Goldman Sachs Short - Overbought Momentum LossGoldman Sachs is a short to me here on the daily for a quick short. I'll disclose now that on the Weekly chart I am long based on the giant indented head and shoulders and the smaller head and shoulders that makes up the right shoulder. That is in my IRA however, as I do not purchase stock (writing covered calls) in my trading account simply because it ties up too much capital (usually). The weekly outlook aside, I like what we see for a potential brief pullback here. Working from the top down, RSI is approaching it's previous two time resistance around 74, indicating to me that the stock is overbought. Both of these prior occurrences happened in the current trend. Secondly, we have a shooting star after a two week up move, now followed by what looks like it will be a Harami. GS does not have a historical pattern of breaking out above the BB, even after a slight contraction in volatility. When it has, it's usually a quick retracement. The one thing I do not like here is that OBV usually leads price and it has now crossed above it's 21WMA. Last time this happened it led a leg up. This time, however, over 50% of the move has already happened and it's just crossing positive, so perhaps it's not much to worry about. IV%R is low in GS, at only 12% so that leaves the possibility of selling anything for a credit out of the books. That means I'm looking for a Long Put Spread basically. A diagonal wouldn't do because diagonals usually require some time passage, and this should be quick. Although I may keep an eye on the diagonal just to see how it would pan out. This low volatility market is no fun, and leaves my option strategies severely limited. Hopefully we will find some nice charts with higher volatility sometime tomorrow that we can enter some strangles and naked calls/puts with.
NYSE:GSShort
by TheProfitcy
BBY Earnings Play; Unbalanced Iron Condor W/ $0 Upside RiskBestBuy has been consolidating since the beginning of July. Earnings are due tomorrow before the opening, and our IV% is at 56%, so I am looking for a play here to collect a credit. Historically looking at BBY we can see usually see a slightly bullish move after earnings (EPS, which is usually beating estimates). Because of this, and being at the top of this range with our other indicators showing bullish momentum as indicated on the chart, I want upside protection, while I expect the range in BBY to continue through expiration this Friday. All that being said, and what is shown on the chart, I am selling for a $0.50-$0.55 credit the 25/29.5/34.5/35 Put/Put/Cal/Call. This means if we break out from here, not only will I likely be putting on another bullish trade to take advantage of the breakout, but I will still have a small (VERY small) profit. That however beats a loss. Ideally, we would like volatility to collapse and BBY to stay between $29.00 and $34.50, but anything above $29.00 would be acceptable.
NYSE:BBY
by TheProfitcy
Bitcoin Price Fails: Triangles, Andrews' Pitchfork, OBVBitcoin price has fallen through all the triangles drawn on this chart - including the big green symmetrical triangle based on the $339.79 low. Bitcoin price failed to reach escape velocity after breaking out of Andrews' Pitchfork and could never break above descending blue price trigger line. At this point, there is the possibility that price falls back into the pitchfork, taking price significantly lower. On Balance Volume (OBV) failed to stay above critical black line. That failure, in concert with triangles breakdown, and failure of price to rise above buy trigger line, foreshadowed lower Bitcoin price.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TerryKinder
4
Bitcoin Technical Breakdown ContinuesBitcoin continues its technical breakdown. On the 1-day chart the 50-day EMA has crossed below the 100-day EMA. You'll also notice Bitcoin price has dropped far below the 200-day EMA as well. In addition, Bitcoin has fallen below the Keltner Channels, which is something I had mentioned as a possibility in the past. On Balance Volume (OBV) is at an extremely low level. The last time OBV was at these levels Bitcoin price was closer to $100 than $200. Expect the pain to continue.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TerryKinder
Dow Jones - On-balance volume strategyI have checked and over checked this strategy a few times, so I hope there won't be too many mistakes. As you will see, this is a very simple and effective strategy, which produces signals when used on its own, without adding any other indicator on the chart or using any fundamental factor. All you need is the OBV indicator, candlesticks and support and resistance. This is how it goes : 1 Look for a divergence on OBV. It shouldn't be a divergence when the price goes flat, it should be a divergence formed on two peaks or troughs. Note that only class A and B divergences have been taken into consideration. 2 After spotting a divergence, wait for a bullish or bearish candlestick like : hammer. shooting star, doji, engulfing, piercing line, dark cloud cover, abandoned baby. Candlestick patterns can be considered too : Evening/morning star, island reversal. 3 Look for the first structure support, that is the start of the current rally or the start of the current correction and set a target above or below it by a few points. On that particular target, position should be closed by <=50%, of the entire position. 4 Before getting to the target, after moving in your favor, the stop should be adjusted to breakeven. 5 The remaining of the original position should be closed when the trader sees fit, or till a contrary signal appears. I have not found a proper closing signal yet. In the period this strategy was tested, it produced 39 signals. That means 3 signals each year. 4 signals were whipsaws, the red lines. 5 signals broke even (if the stop would have been adjusted to breakeven after the trade moved in your favor) 11 signals went to structure support, and made a rebound. 19 signals went a lot below structure support, with some of them even predicting long lasting corrections. You can see that I'm using the word support, and not resistance. That is because this strategy doesn't really give long signals, most of them are shorting signals. Out of the 39 signals, 9 were long, 30 were short. Out of the 9 long signals, 6 went through the immediate resistance, 2 made it only to the resistance, and one of them failed. This is a trading strategy that I'm going to use from now on, separately from my usual trading system. I'll be back with more information.
AMEX:DIAEducation
by vlad.adrian
10
Bitcoin Price and On Balance Volume (OBV)While it is well and good to create charts, monitor indicators and attempt to discern the direction of the Bitcoin price, it is easy to get buried in complexity and blinded by bias. That is why the On Balance Volume (OBV) is so valuable. You can read more about it by following the link below: www.investopedia.com Essentially OBV allows you to eliminate a lot of the noise from day to day volume movement and get a clear idea which direction it is headed in. Price and volume are highly correlated as you can see by looking at the chart. On the OBV, I have added a horizontal black line where OBV has clearly pivoted recently. OBV isn't going to help much in determining price so much as price momentum. Prices below the horizontal line tend to be lower (but aren't always) than the prices below the line. This is relative. For instance, you shouldn't apply this months back. You use it to look at more recent price action not to compare today to several months ago. You'll notice that OBV is below the horizontal line and has not moved dramatically lower. This helps explain the recent flat Bitcoin price. The OBV should also help - in conjunction with other patterns and indicators - when to buy or sell Bitcoin. For instance, it may not be a great time to go long Bitcoin since the direction of price isn't clear. Should the volume continue to decline, then price will likely decline with it.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TerryKinder
2
Bitcoin Price and Volume Trend is Still DownAt this point the Bitcoin price has made a decent recovery from past couple of days where price dropped to the mid-$550's. However, looking at the chart the Bitcoin price and volume trends from June are still down. While the price in relation to the Keltner Channels and moving averages did not behave as I thought, I believe they will still exert influence on the price. For example, the price could go to the top, or perhaps even above the Keltner Channels - somewhere just North of $620. But, then, around the $630 level it runs into price resistance represented by the green line. A similar picture is painted by On Balance Volume (OBV) which correlates with price uptrends and downtrends. OBV had a nice little uptick, but it is not that far from the resistance represented by the red line. Not pictured on this chart is the KDJ indicator. Earlier today when the price advanced past $600 the "J" part of the indicator moved above the 100 level. "J" can move above 100 and below 0. This can lead to dramatically higher or lower prices, but it also is a good indication right now of the price becoming overstretched. There is significant price resistance from $620 all the way up to $680. Weekly technical indicators are bearish, and neither price nor volume have broken through overhead resistance. So, for now, I will sit tight and wait to see what happens.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TerryKinder
20
Price & Volume Analysis - using OBV to confirm price action Today's tutorial session was spent examining my volume / money flow tool, the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. In this example, notice how price broke initially yet OBV did not. When price broke the uptrend line with a corresponding double top fail on the OBV the short really worked. If my charts help you, or you use my indicators... please consider a BTC donation to allow me to continue my work : 1EBttA56cWsgtsZn83VGiNT8si7inZV5Z5 & follow me on Twitter @CRInvestor Additionally, if you have questions about my indicators feel free to inquire as to when my next Google hangout tutorial session is scheduled so you can ask me in person... (or go here: www.google.com)
AMEX:SPYEducation
by CRInvestor