Bitcoin Onchain Volume and Trading volumeHello guys.today i want to explain how we can find important Resistance and Support levels in BTC
according to onchain transaction volumes and trading or off chain volumes.
when we talk about onchain volume means Vol of transactions recorded in blockchain.
and when we talk about Trading Vol or offchain Vol means transactions recorded in exchanges.
Comparing on-chain and off-chain transaction volume can help us verify that data on exchange trading volume is accurate.
Off-chain volume should behave in the same way as on-chain volume.
We need this metrics in Tradingview
1)BCHAIN/TRVOU - QUANDL ----> this metric shows trading volume in Exchanges daily(Blue chart)
2)BTC_TXVOLUME - INTOTHEBLOCK ----> this metric shows BTC onchain volume daily(Purple chart)
and the price chart attached between this two metrics in my charts above.(Orange chart)
so when the trading volume and onchain volume grows together , we can see bounce or fall in price.
i show the trading volume and onchain volume Highs with colorful vertical lines
and illustrate important support and resistance levels this highs show on my chart with colorful horizontal lines.
according to this method , below we have important levels in BTC price that volume grows strong so
a lot of coins move from hand to hand.
this levels are : 19700 - 20500 - 32500 - 37200 - 43200 - 48000 - 56000 - 61500
Hope you like my opinion and if you have notices about it please share me in comments.
thank you all.
Onchain
Bitcoin ready to rebound?After the pushback from the MA50Weekly and the breaking of the bearish flag, Bitcoin has screwed into a bearish trend slowed only by the 61.8% Fibonacci level, after a few days broken.
After the breakdown of the MA200Weekly there was the maximum moment of correction.
The #OnChain data indicates a massive build-up for most likely Retail users.
A rebound is more than likely (would follow SPX500 and classic markets,you can watch my analysis on SPX from a few days ago).
Next resistances among the most important in the short term, $22,300 - MA200 Weekly moving average and subsequently onchain volumes area at $23,500, then we have fibo level and onchain volumes area at 28/30 and then further resistances in the 36/40 area with the MA50Weekly.
The long-term trend remains bearish until further confirmation, but a rebound from this area is likely.
Halving time: The Next ATH in 2025 120,000based on halving time, the next bull run we'll occur on April 1, 2024.
The new ATH will happen 43- 74 weeks after Halving Time (2025). With this estimate, bitcoin will be around 110 to 135 thousand dollars on the next ATH
P.S. I used to New onchain Metric:
1- BTC New Supply: Onchain - you can find it in the below link:
2- Supply weighted moving average:
I will publish it soon
SOPR: Bitcoin still has a downtrand biasI recently published BTC-leading SOPR. You can find it at the following link:
According to this chain metric, bitcoin still has a downward bias. This metric has also never descended overlow area in this cycle. This means that the bottom has not yet occurred.
Descending triangle despite pos Onchaindespite the positive Onchain metrics such as a Decrease of bitcoin inflows to exchanges in the last 24 hours, a decrease in exchanges reserve, reduce in CDD, and Dominant long sentiment in the Funding Rate metric, Bitcoin seems to be forming a descending triangle, which is usually associated with a breakdown
Where is the bottom of the market?In this post, I want to examine the market bottom area based on technical indicators and onchain metrics.
Technical indicators:
1- RSI:
In the last two cycles, the RSI value in the market bottoms has been between 43.6 and 44.8 in the monthly timeframe.
RSI Value is 46.94 now. this is not far from the previous two values, but they were slightly less than this value.
If we find the same value (46.9) in the previous two cycles on the chart, Bitcoin has dropped in price by 18% to 30% at the bottom of the market. If we consider 18% the market bottom will be about $ 24,300.
2- Pi cycle Bottom:
The P-Cycle Oscillator is an efficient way to determine the top and bottom of the market. I used the bottom Pi cycle here. As you can see, this oscillator has performed well in previous cycles. Although the price is above the last trendline, it does not signal a market bottom. based on this oscillator, it seems that the downtrend continues.
3- 200 weeks moving average:
The 200-week moving average has always been good support for Bitcoin in previous cycles and indicates the market bottom (If we do not consider candlewick). Although Bitcoin is close to this moving average, it has not yet crossed it. The value of this moving average is currently $ 22,100.
4- 300 weeks moving average:
Although the 200-week moving average has shown good support for the bitcoin price, in the last cycle, candlewick fell to the 300-week moving average. This moving average value is currently around $ 16,600
The bottom of the market based on onchain Metrics:
1- Realized Price:
One of the most important metrics for determining the bottom price of bitcoin is the realized price. In the previous bottoms, Bitcoin has fallen below this price. Bitcoin has dropped in the historical chart to the 730-day moving average of this metric. the realized price is 23760$ now and its 730d MA is 16300$.
2-CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) has historically picked the bottom of the market. When coins pass from an old investor to a new investor, the transaction carries a USD value and also destroys an amount of HODL time by the previous holder. CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as a ratio to the age of the market and divided by 6 million as a calibration factor. CVDD value is 15240$ now
Nvt ratioWe We technically examined the fall of bitcoin from 34,000 to 23,000, which you can see in the history below, and we also showed the recent declines correctly.
And we still believe that this compression is for another fall
It is interesting to see this Anchin index.
Onchain V/T Ratio: Bitcoin is still overvalued V/T ratio is a new Onchain metric that I published recently in Tradingview. To check this Onchain Metric Please check the link below:
this indicator is based on THE TOTAL VOLUME OF BITCOIN TRANSFERRED ONCHAIN IN USD and THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF TRANSACTIONS. I have explained the phases of the market based on this metric in the link above.
When it is high, it means that the ratio of trading volume to USD per transaction is high, and vice versa.
It is a good Metric to determine the Overvalue and undervalue read of BTC
Based on this metric, It seems Bitcoin is still overvalued.
Bitcoin whales buying bottomsThis is an idea published by Benjamin Cowen on his youtube channel called "whale games". I have published it here in order to see how it progresses over time.
Essentially, whales 103 through 114 (at least that is where they stand at the current time of writing, and are likely one person seeing as all wallets have the exact same amount in them and buy at the exact same time) have been buying bitcoin at macro low points over the past 4 years. They do not DCA, they simply scoop up large amounts of bitcoin when the market is down, they purchased the 2018 bottom, the 2021 bottom and have made a third purchase yesterday at around 30k. Has this whale bought the bottom once again? Time will tell.
You can view these wallets on the bitinfocharts website.
the situation is different with July 2021The price is at the support level of July 2021, but the situation is different from that time
The situation is different from July 2021, when Bitcoin was in the same range of $ 30,000.
The US dollar index, which has a negative correlation with bitcoin, is increasing
The US stock market has lost support levels and is in a downtrend
The buyer to seller ratio is in favor of the sellers
And we have seen significant negative NetFlow in the market.
Miners have sold their bitcoins based on the MPI index
Banks' bitcoin reserves are declining, and the slight increase in recent days is not enough to reverse the trend.
In the technical chart, Bitcoin has lost the support level of MA 2Y
These are not good signs for Bitcoin
High Volume and Transaction Volume on Support levelwe can see High Volume on Support level .
On the other based on Onchain data: Bitcoin Transaction Volume (7d MA) just reached a 4-year high of 169,842.206 BTC
will these be able to stop the downtrend?
Onchain is not in good positionThe summary of onchain indicators:
Miners position index (MPI): + 129% 24h%
Binary CDD: +257% 24h%
Active Sending Addresses: + 24% 24H%
Bank reserve: -60% 24h%
Exchanges netflow: +228% 24h%
these onchain indicators show the sales pressure in the market
Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC has increased by 8%The number of wallets with more than 1,000 bitcoins has grown by about 8% since February this year, but that will not be enough to reverse the bitcoin trend. We are witnessing a decline in the reserves of banks and miners. This is a sign of their bitcoin sales in recent months, and despite the relative decline in exchange reserves, it is still very high. More accumulation seems to be needed to start the uptrend cycle.
An impulse wave in the big correction Celer can form an ABC pattern wich we are at the end of b so we can Experience an uptrend
ALSO onchain data shows that this area is a good support zone
Banks' bitcoin reserves are declining Banks can be considered as one of the market whales. We are witnessing an increase in banks' reserves from December 2019. Reserve of banks increased about 10 times from November 2020 to February 2021. After that, the price of bitcoin started to rise and in March 2021 it reached ATH, Then, with the decline of the reserve of the banks (sales by banks), the price of bitcoin began to fall. Banks' reserves continue to decline and it reached its lowest level since 2020 now. The increase in banks' reserves in the future can be considered a signal about the possibility of an increase in the price of bitcoin
Onchain: Increase the number of spent transaction outputsthe number of spent transaction outputs is increasing. This could be due to increased sales last week, which led to lower prices. Simultaneously with this event, we see an increase in the sales ratio in the indicator of Taker Buy Sell Ratio chain, which indicates an increase in the number of sellers compared to buyers.
Onchain: Increase the number of spent transaction outputsthe number of spent transaction outputs is increasing. This could be due to increased sales last week, which led to lower prices. Simultaneously with this event, we see an increase in the sales ratio in the indicator of Taker Buy Sell Ratio chain, which indicates an increase in the number of sellers compared to buyers.
Bitcoin AnalysisHi, I'm going to get to the point very quickly
Today's analysis is a combination of Price Action and Ichimoku and on-chain data
Bitcoin reacted to the price of $ 42,500
The volume of the market is gradually increasing
The number of wallets with 1000 bitcoins is increasing rapidly
And every time we crossed the Ichimoku cloud price in the 4-hour candle, we saw a price increase
Possible scenario drawn
BTC:Divergence between the count of transactions and the volume The oscillator shows the number of successful trades in the weekly time frame. However, contrary to what is expected, we are seeing a decrease in volume This could be due to the involvement of small and short-term traders. This may be a reason to create a local top in the coming weeks.
use the count of new addresses to identify distributionThis indicator is the number of unique addresses that appeared for the first time in the bitcoin transactions.
We can use it to identify distribution areas. According to Wyckoff in distribution areas, long-term holders sell their stocks (coins) to newcomer investors. Accordingly, in the distribution area, we should see a peak increase in the number of new addresses. As marked in the chart, by suddenly increasing the new addresses and identifying the peaks in the chart, we can identify potential distribution areas.
Onchain: BTC Hashrate is decreasingThe hash rate drop oscillator shows the hash rate decrease. Although the drop is not large enough for the oscillator to enter the over-low zone, it indicates that some miners have stopped mining. If this decline continues, a reduction in supply could push up prices.
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days:
1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased
2- there was significant outflow from exchanges
3- drop the exchange's reserve
These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days:
1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased
2- there was significant outflow from exchanges
3- drop the exchange's reserve
These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
