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Where is the bottom of the market?In this post, I want to examine the market bottom area based on technical indicators and onchain metrics. Technical indicators: 1- RSI: In the last two cycles, the RSI value in the market bottoms has been between 43.6 and 44.8 in the monthly timeframe. RSI Value is 46.94 now. this is not far from the previous two values, but they were slightly less than this value. If we find the same value (46.9) in the previous two cycles on the chart, Bitcoin has dropped in price by 18% to 30% at the bottom of the market. If we consider 18% the market bottom will be about $ 24,300. 2- Pi cycle Bottom: The P-Cycle Oscillator is an efficient way to determine the top and bottom of the market. I used the bottom Pi cycle here. As you can see, this oscillator has performed well in previous cycles. Although the price is above the last trendline, it does not signal a market bottom. based on this oscillator, it seems that the downtrend continues. 3- 200 weeks moving average: The 200-week moving average has always been good support for Bitcoin in previous cycles and indicates the market bottom (If we do not consider candlewick). Although Bitcoin is close to this moving average, it has not yet crossed it. The value of this moving average is currently $ 22,100. 4- 300 weeks moving average: Although the 200-week moving average has shown good support for the bitcoin price, in the last cycle, candlewick fell to the 300-week moving average. This moving average value is currently around $ 16,600 The bottom of the market based on onchain Metrics: 1- Realized Price: One of the most important metrics for determining the bottom price of bitcoin is the realized price. In the previous bottoms, Bitcoin has fallen below this price. Bitcoin has dropped in the historical chart to the 730-day moving average of this metric. the realized price is 23760$ now and its 730d MA is 16300$. 2-CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) has historically picked the bottom of the market. When coins pass from an old investor to a new investor, the transaction carries a USD value and also destroys an amount of HODL time by the previous holder. CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as a ratio to the age of the market and divided by 6 million as a calibration factor. CVDD value is 15240$ now
by cryptoonchain
5
Onchain V/T Ratio: Bitcoin is still overvalued V/T ratio is a new Onchain metric that I published recently in Tradingview. To check this Onchain Metric Please check the link below: this indicator is based on THE TOTAL VOLUME OF BITCOIN TRANSFERRED ONCHAIN IN USD and THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF TRANSACTIONS. I have explained the phases of the market based on this metric in the link above. When it is high, it means that the ratio of trading volume to USD per transaction is high, and vice versa. It is a good Metric to determine the Overvalue and undervalue read of BTC Based on this metric, It seems Bitcoin is still overvalued.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
Bitcoin whales buying bottomsThis is an idea published by Benjamin Cowen on his youtube channel called "whale games". I have published it here in order to see how it progresses over time. Essentially, whales 103 through 114 (at least that is where they stand at the current time of writing, and are likely one person seeing as all wallets have the exact same amount in them and buy at the exact same time) have been buying bitcoin at macro low points over the past 4 years. They do not DCA, they simply scoop up large amounts of bitcoin when the market is down, they purchased the 2018 bottom, the 2021 bottom and have made a third purchase yesterday at around 30k. Has this whale bought the bottom once again? Time will tell. You can view these wallets on the bitinfocharts website.
by SwitchBranch
the situation is different with July 2021The price is at the support level of July 2021, but the situation is different from that time The situation is different from July 2021, when Bitcoin was in the same range of $ 30,000. The US dollar index, which has a negative correlation with bitcoin, is increasing The US stock market has lost support levels and is in a downtrend The buyer to seller ratio is in favor of the sellers And we have seen significant negative NetFlow in the market. Miners have sold their bitcoins based on the MPI index Banks' bitcoin reserves are declining, and the slight increase in recent days is not enough to reverse the trend. In the technical chart, Bitcoin has lost the support level of MA 2Y These are not good signs for Bitcoin
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
3
Banks' bitcoin reserves are declining Banks can be considered as one of the market whales. We are witnessing an increase in banks' reserves from December 2019. Reserve of banks increased about 10 times from November 2020 to February 2021. After that, the price of bitcoin started to rise and in March 2021 it reached ATH, Then, with the decline of the reserve of the banks (sales by banks), the price of bitcoin began to fall. Banks' reserves continue to decline and it reached its lowest level since 2020 now. The increase in banks' reserves in the future can be considered a signal about the possibility of an increase in the price of bitcoin
by cryptoonchain
use the count of new addresses to identify distributionThis indicator is the number of unique addresses that appeared for the first time in the bitcoin transactions. We can use it to identify distribution areas. According to Wyckoff in distribution areas, long-term holders sell their stocks (coins) to newcomer investors. Accordingly, in the distribution area, we should see a peak increase in the number of new addresses. As marked in the chart, by suddenly increasing the new addresses and identifying the peaks in the chart, we can identify potential distribution areas.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days: 1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased 2- there was significant outflow from exchanges 3- drop the exchange's reserve These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
4
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days: 1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased 2- there was significant outflow from exchanges 3- drop the exchange's reserve These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
by cryptoonchain
Rising Wedge!!!Another bearish pattern is in the charts right now which already broken down and currently retesting it so it does make a confluence that we might see some more downside action in the price of Bitcoin, however recently the onchain data shows that 2billion dollars worth of BTC just took off from exchanges, So for that reason it does seems like we might see a relief rally type of scenario, Although if this pattern plays out perfectly the target would be $31,110.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by BeardBoyCrypto
2
We have a strong downtrendBy Combining technical analysis, price action, and onchain analysis, it seems BTC is facing a strong downtrend Consider the following: After the 200-day moving average break-down, Bitcoin retested it, but failed to break it up and finally respected it. At the bottom of the short-term channel, a pin bar has formed, indicating a reduction in higher prices In the onchain analysis, the evidence shows the strength of the sellers: -The composite man oscillator shows that the power of the sellers is still strong - Exchange Reserve is increasing relatively - Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates the dominance of sellers in the market - Exchanges Netflow: is increasing
by cryptoonchain