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We have a strong downtrendBy Combining technical analysis, price action, and onchain analysis, it seems BTC is facing a strong downtrend Consider the following: After the 200-day moving average break-down, Bitcoin retested it, but failed to break it up and finally respected it. At the bottom of the short-term channel, a pin bar has formed, indicating a reduction in higher prices In the onchain analysis, the evidence shows the strength of the sellers: -The composite man oscillator shows that the power of the sellers is still strong - Exchange Reserve is increasing relatively - Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates the dominance of sellers in the market - Exchanges Netflow: is increasing
by cryptoonchain
The summary of Onchain dataThe chart shows the summary of Onchain data: Based on MPI and Miner Outflow, miners are still in the selling position Based on Exchange Whale Ratio, The top 10 inflows to the total inflows are in a high position. Exchange Reserve has increased slightly Funding Rate indicates that we are in the local high position BTC 1Y CDD increased and shows that some holders have been holding for more than a year, moving their bitcoins Adjusted SOPR has a general downward trend Taker Buy Sell Ratio and Composite Man show the dominance and power of sellers in the market. In short, these cases indicate the possibility of a further decline in the price of coins. We are probably in a local high
by cryptoonchain
1
Divergence between price and Taker Buy Sell RatioIn recent days, we are witnessing an increase in Open Interest (one of the Onchain indicators). Open Interest is defined as the number of open positions (including both long and short positions) currently on a derivative exchange's trading pairs. As Open Interest (OI) increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market. At the same time, At the same time, after an increase (which led to the current local top), a downward trend began Taker Buy Sell Ratio" (another Onchain indicator). (The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.) "Taker Buy Sell Ratio" indicates a divergence between the price and its 30-day moving average. Despite the price increase in recent days, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio is declining. This divergence could be a signal that prices may fall in the coming days
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
Divergence between price and Taker Buy Sell RatioIn recent days, we are witnessing an increase in Open Interest (one of the Onchain indicators). Open Interest is defined as the number of open positions (including both long and short positions) currently on a derivative exchange's trading pairs. As Open Interest (OI) increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility, and attention are coming into the derivative market. At the same time, At the same time, after an increase (which led to the current local top), a downward trend began Taker Buy Sell Ratio" (another Onchain indicator). (The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.) "Taker Buy Sell Ratio" indicates a divergence between the price and its 30-day moving average. Despite the price increase in recent days, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio is declining. This divergence could be a signal that prices may fall in the coming days
by cryptoonchain
10
BTC Onchain indicators: Btc needs another large negative netflowMPI: Miners' Position Index (MPI) is the ratio of total miner outflow (USD) to its one-year moving average of total miner outflow (USD): the value of this indicator is in its highest value Since March 2021 MPI= 4.22 Higher value shows that miners are sending more coins than usual which indicates possible selling. USDT reserve is climbing: in general, when the usdt reserves reach their peak, and the price of Bitcoin is in high level, it means that the smart money is in sell position. SOPR RATIOS: Short Term Holder SOPR (SMA 7): increasing: Long Term Holder SOPR (SMA 7): decreasing SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR): decreasing These show that long-term holders did not play a role in the recent price increase, but it is the short-term holders that caused this price increase. Based on this, what is created is probably a local top. NET Flow: On March 22, the Netflow balance was significantly negative. This means that a significant amount of bitcoins were withdrawn from exchanges on March 22. This is almost equal to the amount that was withdrawn from the exchanges on March 21, 2021, and then the ATH happened on November 8. Now the netflow is positive again, and I think the continuation of the uptrend will require another large negative netflow to buy the sales that occur at this level by miners and short-term holders. Coin Days Destroyed (CDD):It has four top values from January 22, when Bitcoin is in the range area. This index had its highest value on February 22 , 2022, since 2019 / This shows that some long-term investors have started selling their bitcoins. Summary: Bitcoin needs another large negative netflow to continue the uptrend , Otherwise we are faced with a local top
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
BTC is not at the bottom of the market the chart shows the NVM ratio. This oscillator works to compare the current value of the Bitcoin with its true value based on the Metcalfe Ratio Necessary explanations about this oscillator are given in the following link. In the analysis that has been observed in recent days in Trading View, some analysts consider the current situation as a range of accumulation at the bottom of the market. According to this oscillator, we are not yet at the bottom of the market. Although there is a possibility of the local top in the market, it seems that we will experience lower prices. (Use this oscillator at the weekly timeframe. This oscillator is for bitcoin and uses onchain data)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
9
Combining wyckoff's theory with ONCHAIN data"This is a hypothesis that needs more testing to be more precise." Wyckoff's theory t is one of the most influential theories of market expression, and the most important components of which are lateral movement areas and trends. This theory turns the graph into something like Dots and lines (stations and paths). But it is not as easy to use as written in books. After getting acquainted with Wyckoff's theory, I read several books on the subject, hoping that they could help me identify this area of ​​lateral movement, the area of accumulation, or distribution. But there was a fundamental drawback. It is challenging to diagnose this issue. In fact, the rules discussed in these books are highly interpretive and subjective, and two different individual traders may come to exactly opposite conclusions based on their interpretation. But as I became more familiar with the onchain analysis, an idea came to my mind that might be useful for more objectively recognizing charts based on Wyckoff's theory. Composite Man: Wyckoff proposed a theory to help understand price movements in stocks. this is the “Composite Man” theory. (The same concept of whales or strong hands.) he said: “…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2) In fact, composite Man is a hypothetical man who has so much money and stocks that when he wants he can gradually increase the price by buying stocks and creating demand, and when the price goes high enough he selles his stock and lower the price. The composite man is the main player in the market. Wyckoff says that if you want to make a good profit from the market, figure out what a composite man game is. In fact, having a way of showing us where the Composite Man is in the market, can help us understand future trends Who are the strong hands in the cryptocurrency market? (I use the strong hand word here instead of the composite man) There are those who buy or sell more per capita than other market participants (retailers). To understand this in the bitcoin market, I have used 3 charts and concepts: 1- Sending Addresses: The number of coins addresses making inflow transactions to the exchange. Indicates the number of sellers' wallets (number of sellers) 2- buyers Addresses: The number of coins addresses making outflow transactions from the exchange. Indicates the number of buyers' wallets (number of buyers) 3- Pay attention to this issue: the volume of transactions shows both the volume of sales and the buy (Volume of buy and sale is equal in the market) Considering the above 3 issues, it can be concluded: - If the number of Receiving Addresses is higher than the Sending Addresses (the number of people who bought compared to the number of those who sold), it indicates that more people bought and fewer people sold (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) So the sellers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the composite man is on the sales side. - If the number of Sending Addresses is higher than the Receiving Addresses (number of people who have sold more than the number of people who have bought), it indicates that more people have been sellers and fewer people have been buyers (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) so the buyers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the Composite man is on the buying side. To do this, the oscillator at the bottom of the chart divides the Number of Receiving Addresses by the Number of Sending Addresses. Numbers above 1.2 indicate that the Composite man is on the side of the sellers and should expect a price reduction in the future. Values below 1 (or 1.2) indicate that the Composite man is on the buyers side. And we should expect price increases in the future.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by cryptoonchain
NVM Ratio: Bitcoin is is overvalued"Please note that this post is not a recommendation to trade, it is just a review of an ONCHAIN index. " One way to check the intrinsic value of bitcoin is the NVM Ratio, And it can be compared to the P/E index in the stock market This index is based on Metcalfe’s Law. Metcalfe’s law states the effect of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system. In another world: the value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of active users. Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM Ratio) is defined as the ratio of the log of market capitalization divided by the log of the square of daily active addresses. The chart above shows the price of Bitcoin, MarketCap, and the number of active addresses. We have compared these 3 values in the top 2021 compared to 2018. Although the number of active addresses has remained almost constant, the market cap has risen from 378 B to 1.22 T (It has increased almost 3.3 times). In fact, despite the fact that the number of active network addresses remains constant, its price has increased 3.3 times. NVM ratio in the recent top was 1.32 and in the top of 2017 was 0.43. NVM Ratio is now close to its ATH. This could be a sign that the network is overvalued
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by cryptoonchain
5
Is the current price the market bottom?Is the current price the market bottom of bitcoin? We examine the answer to this question based on 3 on-chain ratios. The NUPL value has been lower than 0.25 and 0 in the previous market bottoms. The NUPL is 0.37 now and is in a downtrend. Therefore bitcoin is likely to experience lower values ​​before the start of the next uptrend. The MVRV ratio Says "No" to this question. The MVRV value at the bottom of the market is historically less than 1. The current price (MVRV = 1.6) is probably not the market bottom The chart shows the SOPR for Bitcoin. Historically, values less than 0.98 have determined the bottom of the market. SOPR is now "1" and has a downtrend, Which can signal further price reduction.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
4
Don`t rush to trade, the market is decidingA look at the technical and on-chain analysis on bitcoin shows that the market has not yet decided for the future trend. In the Ranko diagram, we can see a wedge that is neither ascending nor descending In Ichimoku analysis, bitcoin has entered the Kumo cloud. This indicates that the market is making decisions and it is recommended not to trade. OnChain analysis: The on-Chain analysis also shows low levels of transactions The market has had the lowest level of transactions since 2020. The Moving average of inflow and outflow of exchange also has a downtrend and there is no significant inflow or outflow of bitcoins in exchanges. Supply/Demand for BTC reserve for all exchanges reached a 3.5-year low. My idea is that the market is making a decision, and until this decision is made, it is better not to make definite predictions trend. The diagram identifies the levels that must be broken out to confirm the future trend. These levels are $ 45,000 for the uptrend and $ 32,000 for the downtrend in the Renko chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
the percent of circulating supply that has not moved 1 yearThis chart shows the percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 1 year. This data shows what percentage of long-term holders have kept their bitcoins. This index has a negative correlation with price. When prices fall, holders are reluctant to sell and the index starts to rise. Once the price has risen enough, some of these holders will start selling their bitcoins, which causes supply to increase and prices to start falling. The linear correlation in the correlation oscillator indicates the negative correlation with R = - 0.9. For a better understanding, a bitcoin chart is drawn next to it and the peak and trough points are marked.
BEducation
by cryptoonchain
ETH ONCHAIN ANALYSIS: SOPR ANALYSISONCHAIN analysis can be equated with fundamental analysis in the world of cryptocurrency. SOPR is an Abbreviation of The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). it is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. In fact, this index shows whether investors are in profit or in loss? See the link below for more information on SOPR: Here we want to present the SOPR analysis of the ETHEREUM ETH crossed the value 1 down (in the oscillator 0). This means that ETHEREUM investors are no longer profitable. The oscillator, on the other hand, shows a downward trend. Based on this, it is likely that we will see a continuation of the downward trend to the point that the price is considered low enough for investors to enter the market for a long position. COINBASE:ETHUSD BITSTAMP:ETHUSD BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by cryptoonchain
BTC ONCHAIN ANALYSIS: SOPRSOPR is an Abbreviation of The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). it is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. In fact, this index shows whether investors are in profit or in loss? See the link below for more information on SOPR: In this analysis, we want to examine the SOPR index for bitcoin. As can be seen in the chart, the SOPR is on a downtrend. This shows that investors are out of profit mode and now this index shows the number 1, which indicates the lack of average profit and loss of investors. The SOPR does not currently indicate an end to the downtrend and is likely downtrend continue in the future
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
8
BTC ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS: SOPR ON-CHAIN analysis can be equated with fundamental analysis in the world of cryptocurrency. From now, I will try to do some of the analysis available in Trading View. The SOPR index is one of the available on-chain data in Trading View. SOPR is an Abbreviation of The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). it is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. In fact, this index shows whether investors are in profit or in loss? When SOPR> 1, it means that the owners of the BTC are in profit and when SOPR< 1, they are at a loss during a bull market values of SOPR below 1 are rejected: In a bull market, when SOPR falls below 1, people would sell at a loss, and thus be reluctant to do so. This pushes the supply down significantly, which in turn puts upward pressure on the price, which increases. during a bear market values of SOPR above 1 are rejected: In a bear market, everyone is selling or waiting for the break-even point to sell. When SOPR is close/greater than 1, people start to sell even more, as they reach break-even. With a higher supply, the price plunges. This indicator can be used in another way - is the price relatively cheap or relatively expensive? Based on historical data, I have drawn OVERBOUGHT and OVERSOLD areas. At low prices, investors tend to buy, which in turn will increase prices, and at high ratios, investors will tend to sell. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BYBIT:BTCUSDT
BEducation
by cryptoonchain
1