BTC is in its long term channelBTC is in its long term channel, and if we lose that level we might see the giant double top and path to 12k which is less possible against bullish case.
Onchain_analysis
the situation is different with July 2021The price is at the support level of July 2021, but the situation is different from that time
The situation is different from July 2021, when Bitcoin was in the same range of $ 30,000.
The US dollar index, which has a negative correlation with bitcoin, is increasing
The US stock market has lost support levels and is in a downtrend
The buyer to seller ratio is in favor of the sellers
And we have seen significant negative NetFlow in the market.
Miners have sold their bitcoins based on the MPI index
Banks' bitcoin reserves are declining, and the slight increase in recent days is not enough to reverse the trend.
In the technical chart, Bitcoin has lost the support level of MA 2Y
These are not good signs for Bitcoin
Onchain is not in good positionThe summary of onchain indicators:
Miners position index (MPI): + 129% 24h%
Binary CDD: +257% 24h%
Active Sending Addresses: + 24% 24H%
Bank reserve: -60% 24h%
Exchanges netflow: +228% 24h%
these onchain indicators show the sales pressure in the market
Bitcoin Wallet Sizes: > 1,000 BTC has increased by 8%The number of wallets with more than 1,000 bitcoins has grown by about 8% since February this year, but that will not be enough to reverse the bitcoin trend. We are witnessing a decline in the reserves of banks and miners. This is a sign of their bitcoin sales in recent months, and despite the relative decline in exchange reserves, it is still very high. More accumulation seems to be needed to start the uptrend cycle.
Banks' bitcoin reserves are declining Banks can be considered as one of the market whales. We are witnessing an increase in banks' reserves from December 2019. Reserve of banks increased about 10 times from November 2020 to February 2021. After that, the price of bitcoin started to rise and in March 2021 it reached ATH, Then, with the decline of the reserve of the banks (sales by banks), the price of bitcoin began to fall. Banks' reserves continue to decline and it reached its lowest level since 2020 now. The increase in banks' reserves in the future can be considered a signal about the possibility of an increase in the price of bitcoin
Onchain: Increase the number of spent transaction outputsthe number of spent transaction outputs is increasing. This could be due to increased sales last week, which led to lower prices. Simultaneously with this event, we see an increase in the sales ratio in the indicator of Taker Buy Sell Ratio chain, which indicates an increase in the number of sellers compared to buyers.
Onchain: Increase the number of spent transaction outputsthe number of spent transaction outputs is increasing. This could be due to increased sales last week, which led to lower prices. Simultaneously with this event, we see an increase in the sales ratio in the indicator of Taker Buy Sell Ratio chain, which indicates an increase in the number of sellers compared to buyers.
BTC:Divergence between the count of transactions and the volume The oscillator shows the number of successful trades in the weekly time frame. However, contrary to what is expected, we are seeing a decrease in volume This could be due to the involvement of small and short-term traders. This may be a reason to create a local top in the coming weeks.
use the count of new addresses to identify distributionThis indicator is the number of unique addresses that appeared for the first time in the bitcoin transactions.
We can use it to identify distribution areas. According to Wyckoff in distribution areas, long-term holders sell their stocks (coins) to newcomer investors. Accordingly, in the distribution area, we should see a peak increase in the number of new addresses. As marked in the chart, by suddenly increasing the new addresses and identifying the peaks in the chart, we can identify potential distribution areas.
Onchain: BTC Hashrate is decreasingThe hash rate drop oscillator shows the hash rate decrease. Although the drop is not large enough for the oscillator to enter the over-low zone, it indicates that some miners have stopped mining. If this decline continues, a reduction in supply could push up prices.
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days:
1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased
2- there was significant outflow from exchanges
3- drop the exchange's reserve
These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days:
1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased
2- there was significant outflow from exchanges
3- drop the exchange's reserve
These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
Some funds flowed from BTC market into ETH market2022/4/12
Some funds flowed from BTC market into ETH market.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
COINBASE:ETHUSD
COINBASE:ETHBTC
Stablecoins Exchange Reserve did not increase or decrease significantly as BTCÐ prices gradually fell, this could represent a transfer of funds between different currencies like BTCÐ&Others.
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I discover some funds flowed from BTC market into ETH market, and ETH Exchange Reserve also hit recent lows.
On the other hand, ETH/BTC chart shows that ETH market has been stronger than BTC market since 3/15.
Moreover, we also can discover that ETH Dominance gradually increases, while the BTC Dominance gradually decreases since 3/15 (Analysis of correlation is negative).
Pic.2:
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Btw, market data like Exchange Reserve and ETH 2.0 Staked is still very good in the long run.
Pic.3:
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Based on the above data, I think ETH market will perform better than BTC market in the future.
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Enjoy the volatility ^_*
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Analyst of cryptocurrency Yu-Shiuan Chen (CryptoQuant & Tradingview Taiwan)
Active addresses are decreasingThe oscillators show smoothed moving average of active addresses and the RSI of it
Active bitcoin addresses are decreasing. This indicates a decrease in investor participation in the market and the continuation of the downtrend.
To start the uptrend, we need to increase investor participation in the market, which will be accompanied by an increase in active addresses
We have a strong downtrendBy Combining technical analysis, price action, and onchain analysis, it seems BTC is facing a strong downtrend
Consider the following:
After the 200-day moving average break-down, Bitcoin retested it, but failed to break it up and finally respected it.
At the bottom of the short-term channel, a pin bar has formed, indicating a reduction in higher prices
In the onchain analysis, the evidence shows the strength of the sellers:
-The composite man oscillator shows that the power of the sellers is still strong
- Exchange Reserve is increasing relatively
- Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates the dominance of sellers in the market
- Exchanges Netflow: is increasing
KCS Medium term review and analysis . Why buy?The best price ranges to buy KCS tokens
The best buying strategy is in 3 steps, which are offered in the order of prices below
$ 14,652
$ 9,110
$ 4,746
And the best range for save profit in 3 steps
$ 28.75
$ 37.89
$ 52.94
Let's go and find out why we should buy this token?
Introducing #fundamental ciphers #KCS
Project Name: Kucoin Token
Token symbol: KCS
Historical ceiling (ATH): December 28, 2021 equals $ 28.83
Activity:
Centralized Exchange Tokens
Maximum number of tokens: 166,128,123
Working inventory: 76,128,123 (45.8%)
Fundamental KCS
KCS is currently ranked 58th in the market and belongs to the exclusive token of Cocaine Exchange and the KCS network.
China Blockchain's own Kokin token, the KCS token is the main fuel for all transactions in this network, which means that every transaction made in this network is paid for through this KCS token. Just like Bainance Exchange.
Onchain -
Active Address Index:
Since December 2, we have witnessed a decrease in the level of activity of this network, and from February 16 onwards, we have witnessed an increase in the activity of the network. Consider support and we can expect price growth.
New Addrese Index:
This momentum index has taken a very good rise, which shows us the status of the acceptance of this cryptocurrency. If this bullish momentum can be strengthened and bullish, it can help price growth.
Balance Exchange Index:
Despite the price corrections, we saw a decrease in inventory in exchange offices, and in addition, the amount of net inflows and outflows of exchange offices shows that the amount of output is dominated by price declines, and despite this price correction, investors are willing to offer these codes in exchange offices. They did not say that if this behavior continues and we can expect price growth in the medium term by maintaining price support to reduce supply.
Unrealized profit index:
This index is showing us that 90% of the holders of these cryptocurrencies are in profit and what can be deducted from it, despite being in profit, do not save profit, which can give us traders optimism in this currency. Show.
The summary of Onchain dataThe chart shows the summary of Onchain data:
Based on MPI and Miner Outflow, miners are still in the selling position
Based on Exchange Whale Ratio, The top 10 inflows to the total inflows are in a high position.
Exchange Reserve has increased slightly
Funding Rate indicates that we are in the local high position
BTC 1Y CDD increased and shows that some holders have been holding for more than a year, moving their bitcoins
Adjusted SOPR has a general downward trend
Taker Buy Sell Ratio and Composite Man show the dominance and power of sellers in the market.
In short, these cases indicate the possibility of a further decline in the price of coins. We are probably in a local high
Divergence between price and Taker Buy Sell RatioIn recent days, we are witnessing an increase in Open Interest (one of the Onchain indicators).
Open Interest is defined as the number of open positions (including both long and short positions) currently on a derivative exchange's trading pairs.
As Open Interest (OI) increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility , and attention are coming into the derivative market.
At the same time, At the same time, after an increase (which led to the current local top), a downward trend began Taker Buy Sell Ratio" (another Onchain indicator). (The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.)
"Taker Buy Sell Ratio" indicates a divergence between the price and its 30-day moving average. Despite the price increase in recent days, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio is declining. This divergence could be a signal that prices may fall in the coming days
Divergence between price and Taker Buy Sell RatioIn recent days, we are witnessing an increase in Open Interest (one of the Onchain indicators).
Open Interest is defined as the number of open positions (including both long and short positions) currently on a derivative exchange's trading pairs.
As Open Interest (OI) increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility, and attention are coming into the derivative market.
At the same time, At the same time, after an increase (which led to the current local top), a downward trend began Taker Buy Sell Ratio" (another Onchain indicator). (The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.)
"Taker Buy Sell Ratio" indicates a divergence between the price and its 30-day moving average. Despite the price increase in recent days, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio is declining. This divergence could be a signal that prices may fall in the coming days
Onchain Indicators: Miners soldOnchain Indicators show an increase in bitcoin sales by miners and short-term investors
A summary of the onchain indicators is written on the chart.
These indicators confirm what the technical indicators show. This sale will reduce the price of Bitcoin and create a local bottom. The value of this local baton will determine the next trend of BTC (see the idea below)
Will Bitcoin Go Up?Hello traders.
Lately I've been doing my technical analysis alone, due to lack of time to clearly write ideas.
But this time I managed to share. I hope it helps.
Any suggestion or idea, just say the word.
Some things I say very briefly to save space.
Here I will analyze some aspects that I think relevant.
1. Stochastic
On the weekly chart, looking at the Stochastic Momentum Index Ergodic (SMI), we see important momentum.
I particularly use two overlapping periods.
With blue and red lines, I use a shorter period, with a loopback of 21 periods and a smoothing of 5.
With green and purple lines, I use a long period, with a loopback of 100 periods and a smoothing of 5.
When both cross upwards, and there is considerable upside up to the 100 limit, we can see in the past that it was an explosive upswing moment.
When that happened, I underlined the circles in red.
2. Moving Averages (Rainbow)
Monthly chart:
I use this rainbow of exponential moving averages ranging from the 5-period average to 85-period.
It's a custom version that I developed myself... I'll publish it soon.
What we can see here is that the last time the price hit the bottom of the rainbow was during the pandemic. If that happens now, the price would be between $20,000 and $18,000.
Weekly chart:
On the weekly chart I circled the times when the price broke the rainbow, just like it did now recently.
If the behavior repeats the past, we would have the following scenarios:
Scene 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4:
Scenario 5:
Scenario 6:
Scenario 7:
It is worth mentioning that there are 7 circles.
Out of the 7 times this happened, 4 times we had a bullish scenario, 2 times we had a bearish scenario, and 1 time we had a tie scenario.
That is, in 57% of the time the price went up, in 0.15% it was undefined and in 28% of the time the price went down.
Now we are in the eighth time... what will happen?
3. Pitchfork Long-term
Looking at the long-term Pitchfork, we see that the price is within the red range.
The last time the price broke below was in the pandemic in March/2020.
The central white line can be a strong resistance.
4. Pitchfork Short-term
Looking at the short-term inverse fork, we see a possible breakout of the diagonal in green.
5. Shoulder-head-shoulder
The chart appears to be forming a head-to-shoulder, which is nothing more than a weakening of the uptrend.
However, this bearish pattern hasn't even happened yet, and it may never happen.
It will only confirm if there is a pullback to the downside and the price fails to break the $52k resistance.
6. Fib Speed Resistance Fan
In this chart pattern we see that the price is in the green range.
Theoretically, the maximum drop would be in the blue range, around $32k
7. Trend-Based Fib Time
Interestingly, tracing the bottom of August/2015 to the top of December/2017, we see that the 1,382 Fibonacci time coincides with the beginning of the war.
Would another important period be in September 2022? I do not know...
8. Projection to next targets
In the first Fibonacci projection we would theoretically have a target of $268,000 at 100% Fibo.
In the second longest projection, it could 100% drop by $480,000.
9. Bullish channel and bar patterns
The price remains within the bullish channel.
I put some scenarios in the figures above.
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
10. Elliott Waves
I'm not an ace in Elliot waves, but I think that we possibly ended the corrective wave C within Elliott wave 2.
11. 4h chart with bearish divergence
We have a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart.
12. Gap in the futures of CME
In the Bitcoin CME Futures, we have a gap.
Will it be filled?
13. Price zones in the futures of CME
There is strong resistance at $52k.
If it drops to $45,500, it would be a great entry price.
It can fall into the vacuum between US$42,000.
14. NVT - Network Value to Transactions
The indicator shows a strong rise.
15. Volumes in on-chain data
In red we have the average movement in stable coins (USDT, USDC, etc.)
In green we have the average movement in BTC (both BTC on the Bitcoin network and WBTC enveloped on the Ethereum network).
In yellow we have the average movement in the main DeFi platforms (Curve, AAVE, etc.).
We can see a progressive drop in volume, with the last peak on 01/28/22 indicating strong support at $40k ~ $38k.
BTC Onchain indicators: Btc needs another large negative netflowMPI: Miners' Position Index (MPI) is the ratio of total miner outflow (USD) to its one-year moving average of total miner outflow (USD): the value of this indicator is in its highest value Since March 2021 MPI= 4.22 Higher value shows that miners are sending more coins than usual which indicates possible selling.
USDT reserve is climbing: in general, when the usdt reserves reach their peak, and the price of Bitcoin is in high level, it means that the smart money is in sell position.
SOPR RATIOS:
Short Term Holder SOPR (SMA 7): increasing:
Long Term Holder SOPR (SMA 7): decreasing
SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR): decreasing
These show that long-term holders did not play a role in the recent price increase, but it is the short-term holders that caused this price increase. Based on this, what is created is probably a local top.
NET Flow: On March 22, the Netflow balance was significantly negative. This means that a significant amount of bitcoins were withdrawn from exchanges on March 22. This is almost equal to the amount that was withdrawn from the exchanges on March 21, 2021, and then the ATH happened on November 8. Now the netflow is positive again, and I think the continuation of the uptrend will require another large negative netflow to buy the sales that occur at this level by miners and short-term holders.
Coin Days Destroyed (CDD):It has four top values from January 22, when Bitcoin is in the range area. This index had its highest value on February 22 , 2022, since 2019 / This shows that some long-term investors have started selling their bitcoins.
Summary:
Bitcoin needs another large negative netflow to continue the uptrend , Otherwise we are faced with a local top
SOPR Short-term traders in profitSOPR has entered the profit zone below the resistance level. This suggests that short-term traders may have made a profit and are likely to sell below the support level. This can lead to bitcoin being respected at the support level
