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Why BTC Remains Profitable: SOPR > 1, but Caution is AdvisedGiven the current stability of BTC prices, I wanted to shed some light on an important metric that indicates Bitcoin's profitability and discuss the significance of HODLing for the long term. As many of you know, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is a widely recognized on-chain indicator used to determine the profitability of Bitcoin transactions. When the SOPR is greater than 1, it suggests that the average investor is selling their BTC at a profit. This metric has proven to be a reliable tool for assessing market sentiment and predicting potential price movements. Recent data indicates that the SOPR for Bitcoin has consistently remained above 1, indicating that investors are making profits from their BTC holdings. This finding serves as a testament to the resilience and profitability of Bitcoin as a long-term investment. However, it is crucial to approach this information with a cautious mindset. While the SOPR > 1 is undoubtedly a positive sign, it is essential to consider the broader context of the market. The stability of the BTC price plays a pivotal role in ensuring the sustained profitability of Bitcoin investments. Therefore, I urge you to exercise prudence and carefully monitor the market conditions before making investment decisions. In light of this, I strongly encourage you to consider the long-term HODLing strategy for your BTC holdings as long as the price remains stable. The inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market often tempts traders to capitalize on short-term gains. However, we can reap substantial future rewards by embracing a patient and strategic approach. By maintaining a long-term perspective, we can navigate through market fluctuations and capitalize on the potential growth of Bitcoin. Remember, the true power of BTC lies in its ability to act as a store of value and a hedge against traditional financial systems. In conclusion, while the SOPR > 1 indicates the profitability of Bitcoin transactions, it is crucial to exercise caution and consider the stability of BTC prices. Embracing a long-term HODLing strategy and diligent market analysis can help us make informed decisions and maximize our returns. Let us move forward with a sense of responsibility and awareness, ensuring that we make the most of the cryptocurrency market's opportunities. Together, we can navigate these uncertain times and emerge as successful traders and investors. As a fellow trader, I encourage you to adopt a long-term BTC HODLing strategy, provided the price remains stable. Let's stay vigilant, monitor market conditions, and make informed decisions to secure our financial future.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Bitcoin Short Term Fall / PULLBACKHello Traders and analysts As you can see in the chart above, bitcoin price has a bearish movement, but the question will be, will it continue its trend or not? I took a screenshot from Glassnode from a metric called the number of addresses> 1K, and this metric shows precisely what the name says. These wallets are ingenious and can lead the market movement. As you can see, these wallets are also declining; this shows that they are probably not finding this price (in this timeframe) an accumulation price, so when there are no buyers, what would happen? Yes, it will continue to correct itself. That's my thoughts, and I think the price can have a pullback to the trendline that has been broken (Upper Yellow Trendline in the chart) by the buyers. Note that this is a short-term analysis and only valid for a couple of days (I mean, look at the timeframe. It's 4H). ------------------------------------------------------------------------ What is your opinion? Comment below. If you like the idea, please hit the boost button and follow me so you won't miss the updates. The information given is never financial advice. Always do your research too. Good luck.
Short
by Crypto_MD
Where is the bottom of the market?In this post, I want to examine the market bottom area based on technical indicators and onchain metrics. Technical indicators: 1- RSI: In the last two cycles, the RSI value in the market bottoms has been between 43.6 and 44.8 in the monthly timeframe. RSI Value is 46.94 now. this is not far from the previous two values, but they were slightly less than this value. If we find the same value (46.9) in the previous two cycles on the chart, Bitcoin has dropped in price by 18% to 30% at the bottom of the market. If we consider 18% the market bottom will be about $ 24,300. 2- Pi cycle Bottom: The P-Cycle Oscillator is an efficient way to determine the top and bottom of the market. I used the bottom Pi cycle here. As you can see, this oscillator has performed well in previous cycles. Although the price is above the last trendline, it does not signal a market bottom. based on this oscillator, it seems that the downtrend continues. 3- 200 weeks moving average: The 200-week moving average has always been good support for Bitcoin in previous cycles and indicates the market bottom (If we do not consider candlewick). Although Bitcoin is close to this moving average, it has not yet crossed it. The value of this moving average is currently $ 22,100. 4- 300 weeks moving average: Although the 200-week moving average has shown good support for the bitcoin price, in the last cycle, candlewick fell to the 300-week moving average. This moving average value is currently around $ 16,600 The bottom of the market based on onchain Metrics: 1- Realized Price: One of the most important metrics for determining the bottom price of bitcoin is the realized price. In the previous bottoms, Bitcoin has fallen below this price. Bitcoin has dropped in the historical chart to the 730-day moving average of this metric. the realized price is 23760$ now and its 730d MA is 16300$. 2-CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed) has historically picked the bottom of the market. When coins pass from an old investor to a new investor, the transaction carries a USD value and also destroys an amount of HODL time by the previous holder. CVDD is the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as a ratio to the age of the market and divided by 6 million as a calibration factor. CVDD value is 15240$ now
by cryptoonchain
5
Onchain V/T Ratio: Bitcoin is still overvalued V/T ratio is a new Onchain metric that I published recently in Tradingview. To check this Onchain Metric Please check the link below: this indicator is based on THE TOTAL VOLUME OF BITCOIN TRANSFERRED ONCHAIN IN USD and THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF TRANSACTIONS. I have explained the phases of the market based on this metric in the link above. When it is high, it means that the ratio of trading volume to USD per transaction is high, and vice versa. It is a good Metric to determine the Overvalue and undervalue read of BTC Based on this metric, It seems Bitcoin is still overvalued.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
use the count of new addresses to identify distributionThis indicator is the number of unique addresses that appeared for the first time in the bitcoin transactions. We can use it to identify distribution areas. According to Wyckoff in distribution areas, long-term holders sell their stocks (coins) to newcomer investors. Accordingly, in the distribution area, we should see a peak increase in the number of new addresses. As marked in the chart, by suddenly increasing the new addresses and identifying the peaks in the chart, we can identify potential distribution areas.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
Possibility of creating a new local top in the coming daysConsider the following. These can indicate the possibility of creating a new local top in the coming days: 1- Taker buy to sell ratio increased 2- there was significant outflow from exchanges 3- drop the exchange's reserve These could indicate the purchase and exit of bitcoins from the exchange by short-term investors. There is also the possibility of a local top according to the technical chart, and the target is a 200-day moving average.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
4
We have a strong downtrendBy Combining technical analysis, price action, and onchain analysis, it seems BTC is facing a strong downtrend Consider the following: After the 200-day moving average break-down, Bitcoin retested it, but failed to break it up and finally respected it. At the bottom of the short-term channel, a pin bar has formed, indicating a reduction in higher prices In the onchain analysis, the evidence shows the strength of the sellers: -The composite man oscillator shows that the power of the sellers is still strong - Exchange Reserve is increasing relatively - Taker Buy Sell Ratio indicates the dominance of sellers in the market - Exchanges Netflow: is increasing
by cryptoonchain
Divergence between price and Taker Buy Sell RatioIn recent days, we are witnessing an increase in Open Interest (one of the Onchain indicators). Open Interest is defined as the number of open positions (including both long and short positions) currently on a derivative exchange's trading pairs. As Open Interest (OI) increases, it indicates more liquidity, volatility, and attention are coming into the derivative market. At the same time, At the same time, after an increase (which led to the current local top), a downward trend began Taker Buy Sell Ratio" (another Onchain indicator). (The ratio of buy volume divided by sell volume of takers in perpetual swap trades.) "Taker Buy Sell Ratio" indicates a divergence between the price and its 30-day moving average. Despite the price increase in recent days, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio is declining. This divergence could be a signal that prices may fall in the coming days
by cryptoonchain
10
BTC Onchain indicators: Btc needs another large negative netflowMPI: Miners' Position Index (MPI) is the ratio of total miner outflow (USD) to its one-year moving average of total miner outflow (USD): the value of this indicator is in its highest value Since March 2021 MPI= 4.22 Higher value shows that miners are sending more coins than usual which indicates possible selling. USDT reserve is climbing: in general, when the usdt reserves reach their peak, and the price of Bitcoin is in high level, it means that the smart money is in sell position. SOPR RATIOS: Short Term Holder SOPR (SMA 7): increasing: Long Term Holder SOPR (SMA 7): decreasing SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR): decreasing These show that long-term holders did not play a role in the recent price increase, but it is the short-term holders that caused this price increase. Based on this, what is created is probably a local top. NET Flow: On March 22, the Netflow balance was significantly negative. This means that a significant amount of bitcoins were withdrawn from exchanges on March 22. This is almost equal to the amount that was withdrawn from the exchanges on March 21, 2021, and then the ATH happened on November 8. Now the netflow is positive again, and I think the continuation of the uptrend will require another large negative netflow to buy the sales that occur at this level by miners and short-term holders. Coin Days Destroyed (CDD):It has four top values from January 22, when Bitcoin is in the range area. This index had its highest value on February 22 , 2022, since 2019 / This shows that some long-term investors have started selling their bitcoins. Summary: Bitcoin needs another large negative netflow to continue the uptrend , Otherwise we are faced with a local top
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
BTC is not at the bottom of the market the chart shows the NVM ratio. This oscillator works to compare the current value of the Bitcoin with its true value based on the Metcalfe Ratio Necessary explanations about this oscillator are given in the following link. In the analysis that has been observed in recent days in Trading View, some analysts consider the current situation as a range of accumulation at the bottom of the market. According to this oscillator, we are not yet at the bottom of the market. Although there is a possibility of the local top in the market, it seems that we will experience lower prices. (Use this oscillator at the weekly timeframe. This oscillator is for bitcoin and uses onchain data)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
9
Is the current price the market bottom?Is the current price the market bottom of bitcoin? We examine the answer to this question based on 3 on-chain ratios. The NUPL value has been lower than 0.25 and 0 in the previous market bottoms. The NUPL is 0.37 now and is in a downtrend. Therefore bitcoin is likely to experience lower values ​​before the start of the next uptrend. The MVRV ratio Says "No" to this question. The MVRV value at the bottom of the market is historically less than 1. The current price (MVRV = 1.6) is probably not the market bottom The chart shows the SOPR for Bitcoin. Historically, values less than 0.98 have determined the bottom of the market. SOPR is now "1" and has a downtrend, Which can signal further price reduction.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by cryptoonchain
4
the percent of circulating supply that has not moved 1 yearThis chart shows the percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 1 year. This data shows what percentage of long-term holders have kept their bitcoins. This index has a negative correlation with price. When prices fall, holders are reluctant to sell and the index starts to rise. Once the price has risen enough, some of these holders will start selling their bitcoins, which causes supply to increase and prices to start falling. The linear correlation in the correlation oscillator indicates the negative correlation with R = - 0.9. For a better understanding, a bitcoin chart is drawn next to it and the peak and trough points are marked.
BEducation
by cryptoonchain
2022/1/21 [ETH] Best buy-point will appear!2022/1/21 Best buy-point will appear! COINBASE:ETHUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD The condition of market is still healthy, and the ETH exchange reserve continues to decline, best buy-point will appear. See the CryptoQuant (ETH reserve) chart that I mapped: upload.cc/i1/2022/01/21/SfI7hY.png The market is in the process of long-squeeze, and this long-squeeze is stronger than other cases (2020/3, 2020/9, 2021/5-7), in order to drive out the retail investors. Generally, the order of strong bulls attack (ETH price may up to new high) including 5 steps: 1. KD indicator (1D) <30 more than 3 days, price keep falling down and retail investors are panic. Market makers do the upward crash, that is market makers wash the retail investors who with less confidence will sell out and leave the market. 2. KD 20 -> KD50. Market makers just completed the upward crash and price started to rise. At this time, most retail investors open the short position, that means the fuel of short-squeeze is enough. Hence, short squeeze will start in the short term. 3. KD 50 -> KD70-80, and KD>70 more than 3days. Market makers carry out the strong short-squeeze (bullish), and price rise rapidly. The fuel of short-squeeze decreasing as price rising. 4. KD70-80 -> KD50. Market makers completed the short-squeeze and most retail investors start to open the long position. Therefore, the price correction will happen in the short term because the fuel of short-squeeze is not enough. 5. KD50 -> KD70-80 again. Two line of KD indicator formed golden fork and KD up to 70-80 more than 3 days again (short-squeeze). Volume and price increase simultaneously, and most retail investors start to open the short position. At this moment, the next bull market is coming, time to appreciate the performance of market makers (whales). Wonderful performance may be coming! Good luck! ---------------------------------- As an analyst, I think that I can't predict the direction of market, but I am ready for a strategy of bullish or bearish . Analyst of cryptocurrency Yu-Shiuan Chen
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Analyst_YuShiuanChen
20
Bloody Christmas? [Bitcoin and Altcoins with unusual movement]Hi. Looking at some on-chain data on several blockchains, we have an unusual movement. Price Drawdown from ATH The percent drawdown of the asset's price from the previous all-time high. When the value is equal to zero, we have no drawdown. When it is less than zero we have a drawdown multiplied by 100 (percentage). When the indicator hits the top several times at zero value, it indicates a lot of profit taking. And when it reaches a value less than -0.50, it indicates a lot of loss taking (a huge drawdown). Since nothing lasts forever, either for good or for bad, this indicator serves to demonstrate the exhaustion of both sides, bulls and bears alike. What the graphic indicates: now a maximum drawdown of 100% has been reached since the last all-time high. Surprisingly, this was higher than the historical value of -0.92 in November/2011. What can we interpret from this abrupt drop? Perhaps market players agreed to divest their positions at any cost to avoid further losses. But looking back, the deeper the better the price to buy. Mean Transaction Fees in USD The total amount of fees paid to miners. Issued (minted) coins are not included. High fees mean paying to perform a transaction at any cost! When rates peaked, the price fell shortly thereafter. Will it happen again? I do not know. Mean Transfer Volume in USD The mean value of a transfer. Only successful transfers are counted. Looking at this indicator, when we have an increase in volume, we have a price increase. And when we have a decrease in volume, we have a drop in price. Right now we have a trend towards increasing volume. As with the fees indicator, we had a peak in this volume, and generally after that we have a drop in price. Conclusion Caution is required. The on-chain data is diverging. The Price Drawdown indicates a great time to buy, because when it reaches the maximum drawdown, right after the price goes up. On the other hand, unusual transfers and fees indicate a possible downward movement. However, it should be noted that it is not because an event occurred in the past that it will necessarily be repeated in the future. These indicators are just an auxiliary tool. The best indicator that exists is the price itself, and it will tell us what will happen from now on.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by andre_007
1
Black Friday to buy BitcoinHi. Here's my analysis on Bitcoin\Dollar price. // --------------------------------------------------------------- // Graphical Analysis // --------------------------------------------------------------- On the weekly chart we have a long diagonal support line. Every time the price hit the line, it was a great time to buy. The same is happening now. Looking at the longer diagonal resistance line and the Fibonacci extension, the next top would be at $380k. // --------------------------------------------------------------- // On-Chain Analysis // --------------------------------------------------------------- ***** Price Drawdown from ATH ***** The percent drawdown of the asset's price from the previous all-time high. When the value is in red, we have a loss from the last top. On the other hand, when the value is in blue, we have profit from the last fund. Warning signal on, as there is profit to be taken, which could dump the price down. When this will happen is the heart of the matter. ***** The Puell Multiple ***** Puell Multiple can be interpreted as "If all mined bitcoins were sold immediately in the market, how profitable mining pools are compared to last historical one year?". This metric helps traders gauge the market cycles from the global view. In this indicator, there is still room for an increase in the profit of miners, however an early realization cannot be ruled out. ***** Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) ***** "The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid". Where: Spend Output = Moved Coins Profit Ratio = Price Spent vs Price Created Compares This track the volume of realized PnL...or magnitude of realized on-chain PnL. 1 = Neutral >1 = Profits realized \ Liquid in Bulls <1 = Losses realized \ Liquid in Bears This indicator is good for signaling good buying moments, when the value is equal to or less than 1. Now right now is a good time to buy, as shown in the histogram in red. ***** Total Transaction Fees ***** The total amount of fees paid to miners. Issued (minted) coins are not included. High fees mean a sudden movement in the market, or an escape valve at any price! This is another indicator to keep an eye out for. // --------------------------------------------------------------- // Verdict // --------------------------------------------------------------- The price needs to stay in the bullish channel, not breaking $50,000. If it breaks below $50, the scenario should be reconsidered. So that's it, I hope you enjoyed it. If you found this analysis relevant, consider giving a Like, otherwise you can give a Dislike... Good week!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by andre_007
CRO with great potentialHello. Below is an analysis of Crypto.com, an exchange that is aggressively marketing and that is snapping up the market. F undamentalist analysis Crypto.com has two main products: the centralized exchange and the DeFi wallet. In the DeFi wallet, it is already possible to interact via the Ethereum network and two own blockchains: "Crypto.org Chain" and "Cronos". "Crypto.org Chain is a blockchain application built using Cosmos SDK and Tendermint, intended as a backbone for some of the existing and future Crypto.org ecosystem". It was released about 1 year ago. "Chronos is the compatible EVM chain running in parallel to the Crypto.org Chain (opens new window). It aims to massively scale the DeFi Chain ecosystem, by providing developers with the ability to rapidly port apps from Ethereum and EVM-compatible chains, with funding from Particle B's $100m EVM fund (opens new window) and access to the 10M+ user base of the Crypto.com ecosystem". It was released on 8 Nov 2021. CRO is the native currency of these blockchains to pay gas and make transactions, just as BNB is from the Binance network. Summary In my view, Crypto.com has an undervalued market value compared to larger exchanges like Binance. Also, her marketcap is smaller than worthless projects like DogeCoin and XRP. So, with the portability coming from the Cronos blockchain to Dapps that already run on the Ethereum network, the trend is to grow even more. On-Chain Analysis We consider relevant the Glassnode indicator "Average Value of a Transfer in USD". Every time we hit a peak (red arrow), we usually hit a top. Except for the green arrow this did not happen. Therefore, it is recommended to stay alert when this transfer spike reoccurs. Looking at Fibonaci, the next target I believe is $1.30
CLong
by andre_007
3
Bitcoin price forecast using crystal ballHello. Another analysis of Bitcoin follows, this time using geometric graphical patterns and three blockchain indicators. Price analysis Over the longer term, we can see that we are below a bullish yellow channel. This has been happening since December/2018. Since then, the price has tried to break through 2 times. If we continue with the current trend (which is bullish), the third time the price will reach U$87 thousand, and later on, U$141,000. Looking back, when trying to break the rising wedge the third time, the price plummeted down (in an ascending wedge we have the exhaustion of the buying force). On-Chain Analysis The Puell Multiple Puell Multiple can be interpreted as "If all mined bitcoins were sold immediately in the market, how profitable mining pools are compared to last historical one year?". This metric helps traders gauge the market cycles from the global view. When the value exceeds the orange dotted line, we have a profit taking, and consequently a price drop. Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) "The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. " When we hit the red dotted line or break it, we hit the top and right after that comes the price drop. New addresses "The number of unique addresses that were active in the network either as a sender or receiver. Only addresses that were active in successful transactions are counted". The two times the value reached the historic high, we had a drop in price. Finally So, based on all of this I made a price prediction, with a little black humor. Good winds!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by andre_007