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RISK TO REWARD 📚 An Educational Write-up on How to Find ThisIntroduction: This illustration explains the minimum Risk-To-Reward ratio needed based on your average win-rate while using a fixed % risk amount. "Risk-To-Reward ratio": The ratio of what you stand to lose compared to win. "Fixed % Risk": A static % amount of your total account balance at risk per trade. "Fixed Dollar Risk": A static $ amount at risk per trade. Regardless of account size fluctuations. "Win-rate": The % out of all trades that are winners. Steps: 1. Before being able to determine what Risk-To-Reward is acceptable to use, you will need to create a baseline measurement of your strategy's performance. 2. To create this baseline, you will need to backtest your strategy and obtain its current average win-rate. 3. This can be done using your pre-determined entry logic with a fixed stop-loss/take-profit offset amount. (Adjusting your entry logic prior to finishing a round of backtesting may produce skewed results. Do not "cherry-pick" trades as that will lead to false results.) 4. Based on the resulting average win-rate you can then find the minimum Risk-To-Reward ratio you should be using. 5. Backtest again using the more optimal Risk-To-Reward ratio and repeat this step until the most optimal backtest results are obtained. Here is the formula for determining your Average win-rate after you have tallied the wins/losses of your backtest: #W = Number of winning trades #L = Number of losing trades (#W / (#W + #L)) * 100 = your average win rate % ----- Introduction to Fixed Dollar Risk: We have found it common for people to use the logic of fixed dollar risk amounts when calculating win-rates needed to break even, but then to use a fixed % risk in practice. This simple-to-make mistake can lead to account erosion over time due to the way compounding works. The fixed dollar approach uses relatively simple math for breaking even as shown below. Example: 3 losing trades followed by 1 winning trade using 1:3 risk-to-reward achieves breakeven (ignoring trading fees and slippage) This risk-to-reward ratio itself implies the win-rate needed (lose $100 three times, win $300 once, you break even). The fixed dollar amount risk doesn't deal with compounding. As such, its logic cannot be used for fixed %. ----- Using Fixed Percentage Risk: Fixed % uses a more complicated and less apparent method for calculating how to break even. As shown in our illustration, if you take three losses in a row you won’t break even after your next win. Fixed % is always dealing with the same % of your current balance. So as your balance decreases, the total dollar amount risked is less, and the total dollar amount gained with each win is reduced. Thus, strings of losses require additional wins compared to the fixed dollar approach. The fixed % method ensures against account erosion by showing the minimum win-rate needed to use each risk-to-reward ratio. MATH NOTE: We used a simplified method for finding the minimum win-rate to make this useful and generally applicable. Our method is based on a given risk-to-reward ratio and assumes the max number of losses in a row to produce a minimum win-rate, it does not factor in all different possible loss strings and their probability. ----- WHY USE FIXED % !?: The question one will have at this point is, "Why to use fixed % if it is so F'ing complicated!?" The answer to that is simple. Despite being more complicated, fixed % is actually objectively better by almost every other measure. With fixed % you generally perform better than fixed dollar during strings of losses and wins. As with fixed %, you lose less as you go down (because you only ever lose 1% of your balance), and you gain more as you go up (because of your winnings compounding). Not only that, but you also perform better even when losses and wins are more scattered, as you can see on the chart below. ----- Conclusion: Fixed % is more complicated than fixed dollar... to say the least. However , it is none-the-less superior in most instances. Use the logic above while using fixed % risk, since if you use fixed dollar logic but use fixed % in practice you will underperform your theoretical results. If there are any major flaws in our logic/approach please let us know in the comments as of course, we are looking to provide as accurate instructional writeups as possible!
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by AlphaBotSystem
65
Harmony ONE x5 to x12 - target's for 2020: 200 - 400 -600satBinance to Reportedly Launch its Stablecoin BUSD on Harmony Protocol’s Blockchain Network Tse confirmed that BUSD is regulated by the New York Department of Financial Services, and has reportedly been fully audited, meaning Binance should have enough assets to back the amount of its stablecoin in circulation. BUSD has a market cap of around $170 million, which is well below market leader Tether’s (USDT) at $9 billion. short -ONE is next RIPPLE + TETHER + BNB BUSD will also be accessible via the KyberSwap exchange and other decentralized applications (dApps) and platforms that are based on the Kyber Network, a widely-used on-chain liquidity protocol in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. The BUSD token listing on KyberSwap will allow users of the exchange to take advantage of the liquidity offered by the stablecoin. BUSD is now accessible to Kyber’s ecosystem of nearly 100 dApps. Binance has been aggressively expanding its operations into major markets like the US. Last month, Binance.US, the leading cryptocurrency exchange company’s US-based division, introduced an over-the-counter (OTC) digital asset trading desk, however, it’s only for trades valued at $10,000 or more. In a recent interview with CI, Binance.US CEO Catherine Coley said: “All USD deposits made at Binance.US are held in pooled custodial accounts at multiple banks, which are insured by the FDIC. We maintain them in a manner that provides access to pass-through FDIC insurance coverage up to the current depositor coverage limit, which is $250,000. FDIC insurance coverage protects depositors against the risk of loss in the event that an FDIC-insured bank fails.
Long
by hypercraft
3
Harmony ONE/BTC coming up nicely... 13% profits guaranteedONE/BTC doing very well. It has bounced off the EMA50 line and is about crosing the EMA200. This already shows confirmation of a bullish uptrend. Using fib extension to map out take profit targets... two TPs are easily confirmed First take profit target at 0.00000056 2nd take profit target at 0.00000060 Entry at 0.00000052 (another late entry, but eh! We can always do a 2nd entry on the pullback right?) Stop loss at 0.00000045 (am wondering... am i using a proper stop loss point?) your comments and feedback are much appreciated Follow me if you like to see more of my trading ideas... Be sure to like my post if you like my idea... See you around. Cheers!
Long
by abasinkanga
1
Harmony (ONE) Long-Term Targets (845%+ Mapped)About Harmony Harmony aims to offer a high-throughput, low-latency, and low-fee consensus platform designed to power decentralized economies of the future. Sharding and Staking on Mainnet Harmony is a fast and secure blockchain for decentralized applications. Our production mainnet supports 4 shards of 1000 nodes, producing blocks in 8 seconds with finality. ‍ Our Effective Proof-of-Stake (EPoS) reduces centralization while supporting stake delegation, reward compounding and double-sign slashing. Website: www.harmony.one ---------- Here we have the long-term chart for Harmony (ONEBTC) with future targets mapped. From the current price to ATH, 845%+ is possible. When Harmony (ONEBTC) goes on its bull run, it will hit a new All-Time High... Thanks a lot for your support. Namaste.
by AlanSantana
5
ONE/USDT - trendy dynamic support#ONE /USDT - the narrowing of the price inside the local bull wedge; - descended to the trendy dynamic support, the yellow line; - bullish divergence. (blue lines) Who is without a position: Enter after the breakout/resistance test of the wedge. Stop-loss, depending on your RM: $0.00375 or $0.00364. Profits are marked by green zones on the chart. Push ❤️ if you think this is a useful idea! Before to trade my ideas make your own analysis. Thanks for your support!
Long
by Valeriia_Top
1
High Risk Trade, but the rewards could be worth itHello there, I am eyeing this one purely based on a good entry. I'm afraid I'm not that confident with this one, but I took an entry at 29 sats. Aiming for : T1 - 38 sats T2 - 45 sats If this coin follows ERD, 58 sat is also on the table. Th thing is, outside of this falling wedge, the chart is extremely bearish. We just went into ATL around 27 sats, and we got rejected at the eMA, signaling a bearish trend. This is why I dim this as a high risk trade. My stop loss will be tight as well.
Long
by Zebre_Trader
One descending triangule or uptrend?Hello Traders, Here is a quicly and simple analyses for ONE/BTC we still at the resistance zone, the best thing is to wait the daily candle close and see if closed above or bellow the resistance, but seens to be broken on uptrend moviment. Parabolic Saar, is indicating a bullish trend. If we break we can go easily to 0.00393 region. The volume has increase is a good indication that we may have broken this Resistance. Please hit the like button and follow us on our social media.
Long
by MarketMinds
HARMONEY (ONE) ANALYSIS: BREAKDOWN OF THE WEDGE!HARMONY (ONE) ANALYSIS: HARMONY has been falling inside of a strong falling wedge but recently confirmed a third touch to the bottom trend line. The bounce off this line does not seem to be fake out as it is backed by a strong volume of buyers which stepped in. RSI became neutral and ATR is trending at low rates. I expect a favorable breakout of the wedge on the next attempt here coming up. The target profit 1 is 62 sats, followed by T2 at 69, and T3 at 78 sats. The large order blocks of resistance come right near T3 and above as harmony enters 80+ sats. Looks to exit trade fully by T3, take profit along the way! Possible Entries: 54-57 sats
Long
by altchicasignals