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Ongoingdowntrend

US 10 YEARS - W1 - WATCH THE CLOUDS !Last week price action triggered a long black candle which broke on a weekly closis basis, both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen or Base line. Such kind of price action should be seen as a negative (yield ) signal, calling for lower levels. In addition, the former uptrend support line which stated at the beginning of August @ 1.1270 has also been broken which also should be seen as an additionnal warning signal calling for further downside move with the focus on the bottom of the weekly clouds, currently around 1.15% which also roughly coincides with the cluster of former bottom and the primary uptrend support line. Therefore, this 1.15%-1.10% next significant support area, on a weekly closing basis, should be seen as THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL !!! MONTHLY PICTURE : Looking briefly at this long term time frame, we can see that the cluster (Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen is also currently @ 1.1500 which corroborate my weekly view above mentioned. A failure to hold above this point, would open the door for lower level towards 1.0570 (50% Fib ret) ahead of 0.8870 (61.8% Fib ret) CONCLUSION : Watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) which for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in a broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend. Ironman8848
TVC:US10Y
by Ironman8848
BTC - POTENTIAL DOUBLE TOP ON H1 !M1 : Ongoing bearish price action. W1 : Ongoing downtrend... Watch weekly pivot level @ 41230. Only a move above this level on this time frame would neutralise the ongoing downside risk. D1 : Nice recovery seen yesterday which triggered a bullish engulfing pattern, BUT IT DID NOT RECOVER ABOVE TENKAN-SEN...Today's closing level will be very important for further development.Indeed, a failure to hold above the D1 pivot level @ 37'500 would confirm a top in place in this time frame. On the upside a sustainable move above the psychological level of 40'000 would force to a view reassessment of the expected bearish scenario. H4 : The upside breakout of the Mid Bollinger Band (mentioned yesterday !) triggered an upside acceleration towards 40'000, facing a tough resistance to break (thickness of the clouds) and downtrend line resistance (phase 2). Watch MBB (36790) and KS (36702) as first significant support ahead of KS (35553) H1: MBB currently under attack ! A potential double top formation is also in progress with its trigger level @ 38000.target 36000. A failure to hold above 38032) would open the door for 37200, 36600 ahead of 35550 (50% Fib ret and also KS on H4) M30 : Same than M1 watch the clouds as the first support zone M15 : Clouds downside breakout attempt ! M5 : Former clouds support zone becomes new resistance area. Before this, watch MBB and KS as first resistance to break On the downside a failure to hold above 38'000 would confirm further downside as previously mentioned. CONCLUSION : ONLY A CLEAR BREAKOUT AND A SUSTAINABLE MOVE ABOVE 40'000 WITH A D1 CLOSING ABOVE 40'000 WOULD NEUTRALISE THE ONGOING DOWNSIDE RISK. have a nice trading day, All the best. Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - H4 - HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF...H4 : Looking at this 4 hours chart you can note the following : 1) From the breakout of the clouds support level around 55'500 BTC has : A) NEVER BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER AND HOLD ABOVE MBB ! B) NEVER BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER ABOVE THE CLOUDS ! 2) Each recovery attempt, has only been corrective and not as a trend reversal has already mentioned many times in my previous analysis CONCLUSION : AS LONG AS BTC WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SHOW A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY ABOVE THE MID BOLLINGER BAND, THE DOWNSIDE SELLING PRESSURE CONFIRMING THAT WE ARE STILL ON A STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE IN A SELL ON RALLY MODE AND NOT YET IN A BUY ON DIPS MODE. Last but not least, for those who want to play against the primary downtrend, I repeat once again that ANY LONG EXPOSURE SHOULD BE MONITOR VERY CLOSELY IN PLACING TIGHT STOP LOSS (TRAILING) AND IN HAVING CLEARLY IN MIND THE TIME FRAME IN WHICH YOU WANT TO ACT !!! Have a very nice trading week, have fun, all the best and take care Please, if you like my analysis, do not hesitate to like it and for those who did not follow me ye, pls add Ironman8848 in your following list and talk about him around you :-) Many thanks in advance Regard Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTC - MULTI TIME FRAMES - AT A GLANCEM1 : Ongoing downtrend price action W1 : Currently below 40'550 (W1 pivot level) Weekly closing today, will give clues for next week D1 : Ongoing downtrend, below the cluster (MBB, KS and TS) In a kind of broad triangle formation in progress !! Failure to stay and hold, on a daily closing above the current support trend line would be negative for the upcoming session (s) and would open the door for further downside towards the former lows (35'000, 33500 ahead of the psychological support level of 30'000) H4 : Currently in the 3rd phase of downtrend price action, in a triangle formation in progress !, below MBB, but, still, for the time being above KS and TS; a failure to stay and hold above 36'000 on a H4 closing basis would trigger further selling pressure. H1 : Failure to hold above the short term uptrend support line triggered some sideways price action, caught on both sides by the clouds area. Watch for a breakout ! M30 : Same than H1, watch the clouds for clues M15 : Already below the clouds, Watch 38'000 on the upside and 37'000 on the upside as very short term levels indicators. M5 : Breakout of a triangle pattern which may trigger a move of 1586 pts, targeting respectively 35'815 on the downside and 39'350 on the upside. Looking at the ongoing price action it seems that a downside move is likely to happen. Watch carefully price action over the upcoming M5 period (s) Have nice Sunday, have fun, take care and all the best to all of you Best regards Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848