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Oott

#NatGas Update #OOTTThe chart is non-tradable (though I did enter some cheeky shorts). Natgas is tracing out something really intricate, as is its typical behaviour. I suspect (and this is only specualation at this point) that the market is undergoing a compex [ w] [ x] [ y] correction as wave b where [ x] is a flat with an expanding diagonal in wave (C). Then there has to be either another flat or a triangle in wave [ Y] to complete wave b and proceed to a simple impulse c. That is extremely speculative at this moment, and hence not tradable from an ElliottWave perspective. The key points are - I believe the correction within the correction has not yet been completed. - Once wave b is completed, there may be a nice quick short setup followed by medium-term long opportunity This is not advise.
OANDA:NATGASUSD
by Fomenka
The Downward Trajectory: Understanding Weak Oil Market DynamicsOil looks weak. It seems extremely weak, mainly because production hasn't come down. Chinese demand is still low and might never reach its ATHs, but this, along with the US refilling its SPR, can potentially send higher oil prices. However, this is unlikely to happen before the market takes out this quadruple bottom. Until all the lows are swept, and potentially until the market trades at 43-55$, it's unlikely to see oil go up. Only those prices will make OPEC+ cut production and have 80+ as its target. Until many of these member countries feel pain, it's unlikely that oil will trade above 80$ without some other geopolitical shock. Again, oil can trade higher, but for now, the target is 60.6$, and potentially 54.2$ is next. We can look for potential longs toward 85-100$.
TVC:USOILShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
WTI breaks out ahead of US inflation dataWe suspect volatility may be on the quiet side with a US inflation report looming, but this provides the opportunity for markets to consolidate and traders plan trades. Should we see the pace of inflation to continue slowing, it could strengthen oil prices for two basic reasons. 1 - A weaker US dollar, as traders bring forward rate cut bets / solidifies bets of 5.25% peak rate 2 - Reduces the odds of a recession and increases oil demand expectations The softer inflation is, the stronger the bullish reaction for oil could be expected. - WTI futures closed above trend resistance following a bull-flag breakout, which was accompanied by positive-delta volume during the rally to recent highs. - Prices are now consolidating, but we'd welcome a pullback towards $73 to buy dips in anticipation of a breakout above $74. - Initial target is $76 (near the upper daily ADR band) - A move to (and beyond) $77 could be on the cards if we're treated to a weaker-than-expected inflation report - The bias remains bullish above $72.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
Energy Fundamental + Technical Macroeconomic Update | 3.14.23WTI Crude Futures Rebound, Brent Crude Futures Rise On Wednesday, Brent crude futures rose above $78 per barrel, rebounding from three-month lows as OPEC raised its forecast for Chinese oil demand growth in 2023 due to the country's exit from the zero-Covid policy. However, the group left its outlook for global demand unchanged, citing potential downside risks for global growth. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's energy minister confirmed that OPEC+ would continue with production cuts agreed upon in October until the end of the year. Meanwhile, the international oil benchmark remained down by more than 5% this week due to the turmoil in the US banking sector and the prospect of another interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Heating Oil Futures Fall Heating oil futures extended losses and were priced at around $2.7 per gallon, approaching their lowest point since February 2022. This was due to weak domestic demand and concerns about a recession caused by the Fed. The unusually warm winter season significantly reduced demand and increased supply. According to the latest EIA data, distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 0.138 million barrels in the week ending March 3rd, while analysts predicted a decrease of 1.038 million barrels. Gasoline Futures Dip Gasoline futures fell below $2.6 per gallon, slipping further from an over one-month high of $2.8 reached last week. This was due to overall weakness in energy markets and persistent concerns about low domestic demand, exacerbated by the failure of SVB and the closure of Signature Bank. Despite this, the upcoming peak demand season for gasoline and increased demand from China could lead to higher gasoline prices in the medium term. OPEC's reluctance to raise production should also keep a floor under the cost. According to the latest EIA report, US gasoline stocks fell by 1.134 million barrels in the week ending March 3rd, 2023. Gold Prices Unchanged Gold prices remained steady at around $1908 an ounce on Tuesday, near high levels not seen since early February. Investors are digesting the latest US CPI report and adjusting their monetary tightening expectations. Concerns regarding the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank, and news that Credit Suisse found "material weaknesses" in its reporting, continue to raise fears of contagion to other banks, leading to a risk-off mood. The inflation rate in the US slowed as expected, but the core monthly rate accelerated, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated. Most investors now expect a 25bps rate hike from the Fed next week, while the ECB is expected to raise rates by either 25bps or 50bps.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by TayFx
Recession concerns and a stronger USD sends WTI back below $80WTI suffered its worst day in 30 yesterday, with a combination of a stronger US dollar, recession concerns and weaker natural gas prices all playing their part for a bearish session. A bearish outside day formed which markets a double top around $81.20, daily volume was above average (and its highest in 14 days) which adds weigh to the bearish reversal candle. Also note that previously the market has reversed lower around the 100-day EMA, yet here it is trying to turn lower around the 50-day EMA (which itself is below the 100-day EMA). A bearish divergence also formed on RSI ahead of the double top, therefore the bias is for another dip lower. A break of the September low assumes bearish continuation, and next support resides around 72.50 – 73.40. In light of seeking to ‘remain nimble’, we prefer to stick to intraday timeframes in line with the daily bias. Commitment of traders (managed funds) We can see that net-long exposure has been ticking higher on WTI for managed funds, but this is due to shorts being covered and not new longs being initiated in recent weeks. Given the negative sentiment then it’s plausible to suspect some of those bears will now be returning. But if or when we see gross longs increase and gross shorts decrease, we would be more confident in calling a bottom in oil. We’re just not there yet.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
The reasons why going long oil is the best trade you can take!In my opinion, the global energy crisis isn't over; hence there are many reasons why being bullish on oil makes sense, and in this idea, I will try to analyze most of them one by one. First of all situation between Russia-Ukraine doesn't look any good, and it also heavily affects Europe, which is essentially directly involved in this war. Currently, gas from Russia to Europe is lost and can't be replaced because Russia has cut flows while someone sabotaged the gas pipelines. At the same time, Europe is about to ban Russian oil from being sold to Europe while also trying to apply price caps on oil and natural gas. All these essentially increase the oil demand (to replace natural gas) while also decreasing production in case Russia cannot sell that oil to somebody else. As if these aren't enough, as many foreign oil companies managing the production have left Russia, its oil production could drop even more as they don't have the knowledge and ability to control the oil fields themselves. The oil prices remain under control simply because the US keeps releasing oil from its SPR while China keeps pursuing its zero Covid policies. The US eventually will have to stop releasing oil from its SPR because the SPR was created for an emergency, not to keep prices low to buy votes. Not only will the US have to stop emptying its SPR, but it will also have to refill it. Also, China will eventually realize its futile attempt to contain omicron and stop its lockdowns. Essentially just the combination of the two would be an incredibly bullish development for the price of oil, as a lot of supply would come off the market. At the same time, demand will increase massively as Chinese citizens want to travel and consume more. Unfortunately, the US and the world are pursuing catastrophic policies regarding the energy sector instead of pushing investments into it. The windfall taxes on the energy companies will discourage investors from putting money in while starving companies of cash they could have used to invest in more energy production. At the same time, many rules against the extraction of fossil fuels and nuclear energy production are making things even worse. As if these haven't been enough, the US is also talking about an export ban, which, if implemented, would have catastrophic consequences for the world and the US. It would create a massive imbalance in the oil market, which would already have severe issues due to the European embargo on Russian oil. Recently OPEC+ announced oil production cuts, and the tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia have increased significantly. While the US refuses to increase its oil output, OPEC+ cut production by 2 million barrels daily. However, here is the thing... OPEC+ agreed to reduce output that it was not achieving. The truth is that OPEC+ has reached its production limits, and most countries are failing to meet their quotas. There is no spare capacity, and it is tough for them to increase their output. Essentially the cut so far was mostly an admission that they can't produce more. Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ want to keep the price of oil around 80$ and are ready to cut production to counteract the Fed's actions to reduce demand by hiking interest rates. There is an ongoing war been energy producers and Central banks, and the more central banks hike interest rates, the more energy producers will have to cut. Of course, with all the rate hikes and the global economy in a silent depression, we are slowly moving into a brutal recession in the next 6-12 months, which could knock oil prices much lower for a while. However, as central banks are already being forced to pivot, dumping reserves and resuming QE, we could see them and governments trying to stimulate an energy shortage, which could increase oil prices. Finally, the US has talked about refilling its SPR when prices are below 60-80$, while the Saudis talked about cutting production if the prices are below 80$. This means that the price area between 50$ and 80$ is worth going long, as the US and OPEC+ are creating a price floor by reducing supply and increasing demand. So what's the trade? Accumulate oil in the 50-90 area. No stops. Target 250-300$. Time horizon - 2 years.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BitcoinMacro
24
Oil Regains the $90'sAs we have been predicting for a while, oil has broken out into the $90's. There are only so many reserves that Biden can deplete in a frenetic attempt to improve his tarnished image before midterms. We have smashed through $90.06, which provided strong resistance and was a barrier for some time. We are currently testing $92.03 which was the exact target we predicted last week. Red triangles on the KRI are confirming resistance here. If we see a retracement we will find support at $90.06 again, or $88.74. Our next target is $95.24.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Facing Resistance at $90Oil has edged higher towards the $90's. We still haven't quite been able to break that threshold just yet, with a rejection just now at the time of this writing just below our level at $90.06. We are seeing red triangles on the KRI at this level. The Kovach OBV has picked up, so we will see if momentum can break us into the $90's, but so far $90.06 is a barrier. If we can break through, then the next target is $92.03. If we retrace, then we should have support again from $85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Oil Heads Toward the $90'sOil finally broke out, which was somewhat of an inevitability as the price was consolidating for almost a week. We saw a triangle corrective pattern in the mid/low $80's, with prices stubbornly refusing to move as the rest of the markets have made great strides. Finally, we were able to break out and our analysis was on-point. Sure enough, $88.74 acted as a barrier to $90.06 with resistance kicking in, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Weakness in the US dollar surely had something to do with this. The Kovach OBV has soared suggesting there is genuine momentum behind this move. If so, we can expect to test $90.06 soon. If not, then we should see support at $85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Can Oil Break Out Again?Oil has continued its corrective pattern as we have fallen from the $90's, back deep into the mid $80's. The corrective impulse took us back to $85.55, which dedicated readers will remember is a strong support level. We have seen green triangles on the KRI to confirm support every time this level has been tested. The Kovach OBV has flattened, suggesting we will need another strong burst of momentum before we are able to press higher. If so, $88.74 is the next immediate target which we will need to break before $90.06, the barrier to the $90's. If we retrace further the next target from below is $84.75.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
WTI Crude Oil headed for 96?Following a 3-day pullback from 93.64, WTI produced a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart which closed back above the 20-day EMA. Given the strength of the rally from the 76.30 low, we suspect a corrective low has been found. The 4-hour chart shows that there was a lot of trading activity around 87.60 since the September low (which marks the volume POC / point of control). But also note that yesterday's low held above a previous bullish engulfing candle on the 4-hour chart, rebounded above the 200-bar EMA and a bullish engulfing candle closed firmly above trend resistance. Prices are pulling back in Asia so we're now looking for opportunities to enter long above the 88.0 area / monthly R1 pivot point, and anticipate prices to retest the 94 highs and head for 96 - or even the high around 97.66.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex