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GOLD: Waiting for the CPI release!After the recent breakdown of the critical $2,600 threshold, Gold (XAU/USD) has regained ground, reclaiming this level despite the persistent strengthening of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, technically, XAU/USD shows bearish potential: on the daily chart, the price has dropped further below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is trending downward. Technical indicators, while slowing their descent, remain deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal or interim support. Fundamentally, Gold is hovering near $2,600, awaiting significant US economic data and pressured by the strong demand for the Dollar, bolstered by political tensions in the US and Europe, including the escalating political crisis in Germany and weakness in Asian and European markets. Investors are closely watching for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which could fuel further speculation on the future of US economic policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Trump's Fiscal PoliciesThe EUR/USD exchange rate is on a three-day decline, trading around 1.0640. Expected fiscal policies under the Trump administration could negatively impact the European economy, adding downward pressure on the Euro. Continued movement in this direction could push the pair toward its November low of 1.0628, and eventually, the yearly low in April around 1.0601. Pressure on EUR/USD has intensified as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently surpassed the 105 mark, supported by expectations of an expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under President Trump. Simultaneously, German 10-year yields have fallen to monthly lows near the 2.30% zone, reflecting a context of Euro weakness. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve recently cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 4.75% and 5.00%. Although inflation is approaching the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of slowing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has taken a cautious stance on December's policy decision, noting that economic uncertainty makes it challenging to provide clear guidance. In Europe, the ECB recently cut the deposit rate to 3.25% but has adopted a cautious approach to future cuts, awaiting upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, the Trump administration may introduce new tariffs on European and Chinese goods and promote expansionary fiscal policies, indirectly supporting inflation and providing the Fed with additional reasons to keep rates steady or pause further cuts. In terms of market positioning, net short positions in the Euro have decreased to 21.6K contracts but remain significant.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDJPY: Will the NFP Halt the Dollar?The USD/JPY moves between sustained bullish momentum and possible technical corrections: the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged temporarily strengthened the Yen, pushing the pair below 153, but post-election political uncertainty limits any lasting appreciation of the Japanese currency. Conversely, the US dollar continues to benefit from a favorable economic backdrop, bolstered by a strong labor market and the potential for a gradual Fed approach in the future. Imminent economic data, such as consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, could confirm the US recovery, further boosting Treasury yields and the dollar. From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at 153.90 and 155.10, while a correction toward supports at 151.95 and 149.50 might indicate a pause or reversal of the trend.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD: Ready for a Correction After NFP?Analyzing XAU/USD's movement, the price recently hit a fresh all-time high around $2,790 but then experienced a slight pullback to $2,780. Despite this minor drop, the underlying trend remains strongly bullish, driven by the weakness of the US dollar due to mixed macroeconomic data limiting its demand. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a clear bullish setup, suggesting the potential for further highs until a significant correction occurs. After a brief corrective dip, technical indicators have resumed their ascent into overbought territory, signaling that buyers are ready to capitalize on minor price dips. The price could break the psychological threshold of $2,800 before the US presidential elections, with the potential to discover new highs beyond the recent record of $2,789.72. In October, the private sector added 233K new jobs, surpassing expectations and temporarily strengthening the dollar. However, Q3 GDP growth at 2.8% fell short of forecasts, adding downward pressure on the dollar. The quarterly Core PCE Price Index was 2.2%, down from the previous quarter’s 2.8% but above the 2.1% expectation. Despite this decline, inflation remains within the Fed’s tolerance range, reducing the likelihood of an impact on the central bank’s policy decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Will NFP Make the Dollar Drop?GBP/USD weakens around 1.3010 during the European session on Wednesday, staying within a descending channel since September, as the market awaits key economic data, including the UK Autumn Budget, October’s ADP Employment Change, and US Q3 GDP. A close above 1.2975 could attract buyers, pushing the price toward 1.3050, while support remains at 1.2895. The pound remains vulnerable to potential negative economic surprises or restrictive fiscal measures announced in the Budget, as indicated by Prime Minister Starmer, which could increase volatility. Positive US economic data, especially on employment and growth, could strengthen the dollar and further push GBP/USD lower. I am currently long on GBP/USD from last week, aiming for a 1:4 RR. Currently, I'm at a 1:2 RR with SL at BE, so risk-free. Have a great day and happy trading, everyone!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: US Elections and Middle East War!USD/JPY fell towards 152.00 after reaching a 12-week high near 153.20, due to a temporary correction in the US Dollar (USD), which saw the Dollar Index (DXY) dip to 104.20. Despite this, the Dollar's outlook remains bullish, supported by positive economic data such as the October US services PMI, which exceeded expectations with an expansion to 55.3. Political uncertainty and the upcoming US presidential elections further enhance the Dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency. In Japan, the cautious statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who indicated a gradual approach to assessing inflation, suggest that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near term. This divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan continues to support a bullish trend for USD/JPY, with the current correction seen as temporary.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL Ready for $75!WTI oil prices have climbed back to $71.60 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly due to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The possibility of disruptions in oil supplies from the region fuels market uncertainty. However, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories, far exceeding expectations, is putting downward pressure on prices, indicating a potential oversupply. Additionally, the strengthening US dollar, which has reached its highest level since July, is reducing oil demand by making it more expensive for foreign buyers. These factors limit the potential for price increases, despite geopolitical concerns.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAU/USD: Ready for a Pullback!The price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently retreated from an all-time high of around $2,560 and is currently trading slightly below $2,720, complicated by the strength of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Technically, the $2,750 level has shown signs of rejection, making it a key resistance, while immediate support is located at $2,725, near the lower boundary of a two-week ascending channel. A convincing break below this support could trigger technical selling, pushing the price down toward $2,700 and subsequently to $2,680-2,675, where the 100-period simple moving average resides. Despite overbought conditions and pressure from the dollar, political uncertainty and the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for gold as a safe haven. That said, gold seems poised for a correction toward $2,675, and we will see in the coming days if it gives us a signal for a short entry. Good evening and happy trading to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Is the Dollar Weakness Back?After a brief two-day recovery, GBP/USD reversed course on Monday, losing 0.5% and continuing to show signs of weakness on Tuesday morning, trading slightly below the 1.3000 level. Market sentiment was cautious at the beginning of the week due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which bolstered demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven. The US economic calendar features the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October, though it is not expected to significantly impact the market. Additionally, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York, but without expected comments on monetary policy, the event could have a minimal effect on the pound. The next important data releases for GBP/USD will be on Thursday, with the preliminary PMI Manufacturing and Services Index data for the UK and the US, which could provide further direction for the pair. It is also worth noting that on Tuesday, the market closed the day with a doji candle, opening up a potential bullish opportunity. We will see if today, during the London session, the market provides a clear confirmation to go long. Happy trading, and have a great day!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Watch for the Rebound!EUR/USD began the week on a bearish note, hitting 12-week lows near 1.0800 as the US dollar remains strong, supported by solid economic fundamentals and rising US yields. Key support levels are at 1.0811 and 1.0775, while major resistance is seen at 1.0930 and 1.1040. The macroeconomic backdrop favors the dollar, with the Fed remaining cautious on rate cuts, and the ECB, despite a recent rate cut, facing weak growth and declining inflation. A drop below 1.0800 could accelerate losses, while a recovery above 1.0875 would be the first positive signal.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Light Crude Oil Futures: Bulls vs. Bears – Big Moves ComingAlright, trading fam, let me set the scene. We’re sitting at $69.40 right now, and the market is coiling like a wave that’s either going to barrel or wipe out everyone trying to ride it. This is one of those setups that makes you lean in because, whichever way it goes, it’s going to be a ride. You ready? Bearish Path – Things Could Get Real Slippery If the price slips below $62.30, it could open up a steep drop to as low as $17.12. Yeah, that’s a long way down. It’s like paddling into the wrong break and realizing there’s no way out without eating sand. If the bears manage to break that key support, all bets are off. Think demand drops, rising inventories, or a stronger dollar that sends oil spiraling lower. Traders who’ve been short are already eyeing this level—if it breaks, they’ll be riding that wave all the way down. Bullish Path – Eyes on the Double Top But here’s the flip side: if the bulls show up and break through $89.10, we’re talking about a potential double top formation. And if that double top gives way? It’s all gas, no brakes, with $129.25 in sight. It’ll take some momentum to push through—maybe supply cuts or geopolitical tensions—but if the bulls catch that wave, it could be a smooth ride to higher levels. What’s the Move? Right now, it’s all about staying patient and reading the flow. If $62.30 holds, you know the bulls still have some fight in them. But if they lose that level, the bears are going to have a field day. On the other hand, if the bulls break through $89.10, it’s game on to higher highs. This is one of those trades where the chart is giving us clear levels, and now it’s just a matter of who takes the wheel. If this breakdown gave you some clarity, follow, share, and pass it along to anyone else riding these markets. Let’s keep an eye on these levels and catch the right wave when it comes. Mindbloome Trader
NYMEX:CL1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
USD/JPY Towards 160 if the Fed doesn’t cut!USD/JPY is currently trading near the 150.00 level, under pressure due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities and a pullback in the US Dollar. The pair is navigating a cautious environment, as mild risk aversion strengthens the safe-haven Japanese Yen. However, despite this pressure, the pair maintains its broader upward trend after breaking a key resistance level. Fundamentally, USD/JPY continues to find support from strong US retail sales data and a resilient labor market, along with rising US Treasury yields. This has led investors to reduce the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the November meeting, keeping the dollar supported and the pair on a bullish trajectory.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold Nears $2,700 on Election UncertaintyThe price of gold continues its bullish run, nearing $2,700 per ounce due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, despite the strength of the dollar and rising Treasury yields. Political uncertainty is increasing demand for the precious metal, considered a safe haven, as polls show a tight race. Additionally, the recent decision by the ECB to cut interest rates temporarily strengthened the dollar, but this has not prevented gold from maintaining its positive momentum. Better-than-expected economic data in the U.S., such as increased retail sales and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, also supported the dollar, but these factors were not enough to reverse gold’s trend. From a technical standpoint, moving averages, particularly the 20-day SMA around $2,649.50, continue to provide support to the bullish trend, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain far below, confirming persistent buyer interest. Technical indicators suggest further upside, though minor short-term corrections may occur, potentially offering new buying opportunities.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Key Levels and Market UncertaintyThe analysis of the GBP/USD pair indicates a context of uncertainty, with the British pound (GBP) seeking support from relatively subdued demand for the US dollar (USD) but lacking clear bullish pressure. The GBP/USD pair is influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including expectations of further easing by the Bank of England (BoE) and key economic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom. Following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting, the dollar gained strength. The minutes revealed that most FOMC members supported a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, but with caution regarding the future pace of easing, sending a more "hawkish" signal than expected and dampening the prospects for immediate further easing. The pound remains under pressure, as the market expects the BoE to continue with a more accommodative policy, which limits the potential appreciation of the GBP. However, UK economic data could provide short-term support if it surprises to the upside. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has some key static support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000 (a psychologically important round level), and 1.2940, which could act as deeper support. On the resistance side, 1.3100 corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend and could be a barrier for bulls, with the next resistance at 1.3170, located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, representing the next hurdle in the event of a trend reversal.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Geopolitical Concerns Support Gold PricesGold price remains resilient, with buyers showing persistence as long as the static support at $2,630 holds firm. Gold's recent struggle to capitalize on the US Dollar's pullback, following the Greenback's seven-week highs, is notable. Despite weakening US Treasury bond yields, which typically support Gold prices, other global dynamics are weighing on the precious metal. Market risk sentiment remains elevated, driven by expectations of further stimulus measures from China as markets reopened after a week-long break. This surge in risk appetite has suppressed demand for traditional safe-haven assets like Gold and US bonds. Another factor dampening Gold's outlook is the shifting sentiment regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. Following stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which reported robust job growth of 254,000 in September, expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed have almost disappeared. The probability of a 25 bps cut is now seen at 94%, leaving little room for further dovish moves. This has reduced Gold’s short-term appeal, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold. However, geopolitical concerns continue to support Gold prices. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighted by Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and retaliatory rocket launches by Hezbollah into northern Israel, raises the risk of a broader regional war in the Middle East. This geopolitical uncertainty keeps safe-haven demand for Gold alive, counterbalancing the downward pressure from global risk appetite and Fed expectations.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices? Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply. Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport. At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets. USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel. If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel. On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DCFX-TA
Gold is ready for NFP!Gold (XAU/USD) has shown resilience, bouncing back to around $2,640 per ounce after hitting a daily low of $2,638 on Thursday. This recovery was fueled by growing concerns over a potential conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as a stronger US Dollar. On the fundamental side, gold remains influenced by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Last week, the market predicted with over 60% probability a 50 basis point rate cut by November. However, stronger-than-expected US labor market data have reduced these expectations to 35%, boosting the US Dollar and applying bearish pressure on gold, which tends to lose appeal as the dollar strengthens. Technically, gold is in a phase of uncertainty. A break above $2,673, the weekly high, could signal a resumption of the uptrend, with a potential target of $2,700. Conversely, a break below $2,625 could lead to a test of support at $2,600. In the medium to long term, gold maintains a general bullish trend, supported by its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and the global low-interest rate environment.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
WTI Price Outlook: Key FactorsThe price of WTI is hovering around $69.60 per barrel, remaining at relatively low levels compared to recent peaks. However, several signals suggest a potential reversal towards an upward trajectory. The reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories, reported by the EIA, was significantly larger than expected, with a drop of 4.471 million barrels compared to the forecasted 1.2 million. This signal of shrinking supply could exert upward pressure on crude oil prices. On the other hand, the effectiveness of recent economic stimulus measures adopted by China, the world's largest oil importer, remains uncertain. If these measures fail to stimulate demand, crude prices could face downward pressure. Additionally, rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly after an Israeli airstrike that killed a Hezbollah commander, increase the risk of a potential supply disruption from the region. From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently in a consolidation phase. If prices manage to break through the key resistance level around $70-72 per barrel, a bullish breakout could occur, supported by increased trading volumes.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Is Global Oil Demand the Key to Energy Market Stability?In the intricate landscape of global energy markets, the question of oil demand remains a central enigma. Driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production strategies, and economic dynamics, global oil demand is a complex tapestry that shapes the future of energy markets. Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have historically been a significant driver of oil price volatility. The recent escalation of tensions has once again underscored the delicate balance between geopolitical stability and global oil supply. As geopolitical risks rise, so too does the price of oil, impacting investors in oil-related securities like the United States Oil Fund (USO). However, geopolitical factors are just one piece of the puzzle. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, play a crucial role in regulating global oil supply. Their production decisions, often influenced by economic considerations and geopolitical pressures, can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, global oil demand. Beyond geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics, economic factors also play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. The global economy, with its cyclical nature, influences energy consumption. During periods of economic growth, oil demand tends to increase, while economic downturns can lead to reduced consumption. The interplay between geopolitical risks, OPEC+ strategies, and economic factors creates a complex and dynamic environment for the global oil market. Understanding these intricate relationships is essential for investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the oil sector.
AMEX:USOLong
by signalmastermind
GBPUSD: The bullish run continues!The analysis of GBP/USD highlights a strong upward phase, with the pair holding above 1.3300, close to its 31-month high. The pair has extended its positive trend for five consecutive sessions, driven by various technical and economic factors. The current resistance level is around 1.3350, representing the upper boundary of the ascending channel. If this level is breached, the next resistance would be around 1.3400, a significant psychological barrier. Should the pair retreat below 1.3300, it could drop toward 1.3230, the lower limit of the channel. This would signal a possible correction, likely due to overbought conditions. The Bank of England (BoE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with only one policymaker favoring a cut, positively surprised markets. The overall tone was seen as "hawkish," with Governor Bailey expressing optimism that rates could fall but stressing the need for more inflation data. Positive retail sales data (+1% in August vs. a forecast of +0.4%) further supported the British pound, showcasing the UK's economic resilience, a positive factor for the currency. The US dollar, on the other hand, showed signs of weakness, especially following volatility in US equity markets, which could bolster GBP/USD’s rise.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold's Surge on Fed Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions!Fundamental Trend and Macroeconomic Factors: Gold is continuing its bullish trend, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Lower rates make gold, a non-yielding asset, more attractive compared to interest-bearing financial instruments. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon are also boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold, further driving up the precious metal’s price. Technical Data and Trend Indicators: Gold has risen for the third consecutive day, with the price reaching a new record high of $2,634.74 per ounce. Daily technical indicators show signs of stabilization, although they remain in overbought territory, indicating that the bullish momentum might start to slow down. 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Technical indicators have begun to pull back from their recent highs with neutral-to-bearish slopes, signaling a potential retracement. However, gold continues to trade above rising moving averages, with dynamic support around $2,600. Future Outlook: Upcoming economic data, such as the August PCE Index, could influence the Fed’s future direction, determining whether interest rate cuts will become more aggressive. This factor will be crucial in assessing whether gold can continue its upward trajectory, bolstered by an expansive monetary policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD Analysis after the FED, BOE and BOJ!The analysis of EUR/USD suggests a relatively strong position for the pair, currently stable around 1.1160, with a bullish outlook supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Technical Factors: Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart is near 70, indicating the pair is in overbought territory, suggesting that a technical pullback or correction could be imminent in the short term. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact for now. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The first resistance level is at 1.1200, followed by 1.1275, which represents the July 18, 2023 high. Support: The first support level is at 1.1135, followed by 1.1100. Fundamental Factors: US Dollar: The potential weakness of the US Dollar is a key factor. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates in 2024 could contribute to a decline in the Dollar, increasing bullish pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Although the data on initial jobless claims (219,000 vs. 231,000) temporarily supported the Dollar, the prevailing risk sentiment in the markets reintroduced bearish pressure on the Dollar later in the week. European Central Bank (ECB): Comments from ECB members indicate that no significant monetary policy changes are expected until December. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech could have market impacts. If she opens the door to a rate cut as early as October, it could weaken the Euro. However, at this time, such a possibility seems unlikely.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPUSD: After the FED, Awaiting the BOE and BOJ!The GBP/USD pair found support near the 1.3150 area on Thursday, temporarily halting the correction from the recent high of 1.3300, the highest level since March 2022. The 4-hour RSI remains close to 70, suggesting that the pair could enter overbought territory in the short term if it continues to rise. The bullish sentiment for GBP/USD has been supported by expectations of an aggressive rate cut from the Fed, which has weakened the US Dollar. This week, markets are awaiting the rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). In the short term, GBP/USD could consolidate above 1.3200 before potentially resuming its rise toward 1.3260 and 1.3300. On the downside, a break below 1.3150 would open the door for a drop towards 1.3100, especially if US economic data supports a rebound in the dollar.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3