Get started

Opec

GBP/USD: Bearish Momentum Holds Below 1.2500GBP/USD trades around 1.2490, showing weakness for the third consecutive day, with the daily chart indicating a bearish bias within a descending channel. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, projecting a 2025 rate of 3.9% (up from 3.4% in September). Powell emphasized caution and a slower path for future rate cuts, while the BoE kept rates steady at 4.75%. The strengthening of the US Dollar has been supported by rising Treasury yields, although improving global risk sentiment might limit further gains. A break below the 1.2450 support could push the price towards 1.2400, while a move above 1.2530 might open the door to a potential test of 1.2600, though this remains unlikely without favorable catalysts.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Oil Market Analysis - 17/12/2024The oil market is currently under pressure, with WTI down to $69.30 and Brent at $72.66. The main causes are: Pemex Production Recovery: Oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico have returned to full capacity after improved weather conditions and the end of the hurricane season. This has increased available supply, partially offsetting the decline in Russian production. Decline in Russian Crude: Russian maritime oil exports have fallen by 11% since October due to maintenance at a key terminal. This has temporarily limited flows but has not significantly supported prices due to increased production from other sources like Pemex. Strengthening US Dollar: The Dollar Index (DXY) is around 107.00, gaining strength thanks to preliminary US PMI data for December, which signals the fastest economic growth in 33 months, driven by the services sector. A strong dollar negatively impacts oil, making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. API Expectations: Crude inventory data from the API, scheduled for 21:30 GMT, could add volatility. Last week, there was a build of 0.499 million barrels. EU Sanctions: The EU has imposed sanctions on a Dutch trader involved in trading Russian oil above the price cap. The impact on volumes remains limited for now. Oil Technical Analysis Price Range: Oil is trading within a range between $67.00 (support) and $71.50 (upper resistance), with this band likely extending into January 2025. Resistance: The key resistance is located at $71.03 (100-day SMA) and $71.46, where prices encountered selling pressure last week. A breakout above $71.03 could push prices toward $75.27, but caution is needed for quick profit-taking as the year-end approaches. Support: The first solid support is at $67.12, a level that held prices in May-June 2023. A break below could see crude testing the 2024 yearly low at $64.75 and then $64.38, the 2023 low.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Awaiting the Fed for the Christmas Rally!EUR/USD continues to show weakness, hovering near weekly lows at 1.0453, reflecting an unfavorable macroeconomic outlook for the euro. The ECB's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, combined with the removal of the term "restrictive" in its monetary policy stance and the projection of inflation nearing 2% on a sustainable basis, indicates a less aggressive approach by the central bank, with negative implications for the euro. Christine Lagarde also highlighted downside risks to economic growth, amplifying concerns about the Eurozone. On the U.S. front, a higher-than-expected PPI and an increase in initial jobless claims suggest a mix of inflationary pressures and potential signs of labor market softening. The dollar benefits from strong demand driven by these economic dynamics and the perception of U.S. resilience compared to the Eurozone. Technically, the pair remains in a clear downtrend. In the short term, focus shifts to Federal Reserve statements and U.S. inflation data, which could further strengthen the dollar if they confirm a more robust economic context in the U.S. compared to Europe.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD moving towards 1.02!As of December 8, 2024, the EUR/USD exchange rate has shown significant volatility, influenced by mixed economic data and central bank monetary policies. Recently, the exchange rate hit multi-year lows, bottoming out at 1.0332 on November 22, followed by a rebound that brought the pair to fluctuate around 1.0570. The Dollar Index (DXY) declined after initial jobless claims rose to 224,000 in the week ending November 30, compared to 215,000 in the previous week. However, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December showed an improvement, indicating increased consumer confidence in the U.S. economy. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of slowing, with Germany’s manufacturing PMI declining and a contraction in France's services sector activity. This data highlights economic weakness that could influence future decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). The market currently sees a 70% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut by the Fed in its December meeting. Historically, December has been a positive month for EUR/USD, with an average return of 1.23% over the past 50 years. However, current economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties could limit this seasonal trend.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Under Pressure!The EUR/USD exchange rate has recently declined, dropping below the 1.0500 support level. This movement was driven by renewed demand for the US dollar and political concerns in France, where fears of a potential government collapse could hinder efforts to reduce the country's budget deficit. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to 4.75%-5.00%, aiming to bring inflation closer to its 2% target. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a cautious tone, indicating that there is no urgent need for further cuts in the short term. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates unchanged after its last cut in October, which brought the deposit rate to 3.25%. Despite this, inflation concerns persist, with wage growth in the Eurozone accelerating to 5.42% in the third quarter. President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policies add further uncertainty to the market. His recent demand for BRICS nations to refrain from developing or supporting new alternative currencies to the US dollar—under threat of 100% tariffs—has contributed to the dollar's strength. This stance could fuel inflation in the United States, potentially prompting the Fed to adopt a more aggressive approach, resulting in further strengthening of the dollar and additional pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold Awaiting the FOMCGold prices are experiencing a recovery after hitting a six-day low at $2,605, consolidating around $2,625. Market attention is focused on the November Fed meeting minutes, which could provide decisive signals regarding a possible rate cut in December, currently estimated at a 61% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If the intraday support at $2,605 fails, prices could target $2,550. Conversely, a daily close above $2,670 would be necessary to reignite bullish momentum, with targets at $2,700 and $2,750. The fundamental context remains complex: Donald Trump's statements on new tariffs have reignited demand for safe-haven assets, including gold and the US dollar, while rebounding bond yields cap enthusiasm for the precious metal. Decreasing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon represent an additional headwind for gold, as they reduce the need for global risk hedging. Additionally, Trump's appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary has reassured bond markets, strengthening the dollar and limiting gold's gains. Overall, gold prices are balanced between contrasting fundamental and technical forces, as traders await the Fed minutes for clearer direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GOLD: Waiting for the CPI release!After the recent breakdown of the critical $2,600 threshold, Gold (XAU/USD) has regained ground, reclaiming this level despite the persistent strengthening of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, technically, XAU/USD shows bearish potential: on the daily chart, the price has dropped further below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is trending downward. Technical indicators, while slowing their descent, remain deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal or interim support. Fundamentally, Gold is hovering near $2,600, awaiting significant US economic data and pressured by the strong demand for the Dollar, bolstered by political tensions in the US and Europe, including the escalating political crisis in Germany and weakness in Asian and European markets. Investors are closely watching for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which could fuel further speculation on the future of US economic policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Trump's Fiscal PoliciesThe EUR/USD exchange rate is on a three-day decline, trading around 1.0640. Expected fiscal policies under the Trump administration could negatively impact the European economy, adding downward pressure on the Euro. Continued movement in this direction could push the pair toward its November low of 1.0628, and eventually, the yearly low in April around 1.0601. Pressure on EUR/USD has intensified as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently surpassed the 105 mark, supported by expectations of an expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under President Trump. Simultaneously, German 10-year yields have fallen to monthly lows near the 2.30% zone, reflecting a context of Euro weakness. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve recently cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 4.75% and 5.00%. Although inflation is approaching the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of slowing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has taken a cautious stance on December's policy decision, noting that economic uncertainty makes it challenging to provide clear guidance. In Europe, the ECB recently cut the deposit rate to 3.25% but has adopted a cautious approach to future cuts, awaiting upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, the Trump administration may introduce new tariffs on European and Chinese goods and promote expansionary fiscal policies, indirectly supporting inflation and providing the Fed with additional reasons to keep rates steady or pause further cuts. In terms of market positioning, net short positions in the Euro have decreased to 21.6K contracts but remain significant.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDJPY: Will the NFP Halt the Dollar?The USD/JPY moves between sustained bullish momentum and possible technical corrections: the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates unchanged temporarily strengthened the Yen, pushing the pair below 153, but post-election political uncertainty limits any lasting appreciation of the Japanese currency. Conversely, the US dollar continues to benefit from a favorable economic backdrop, bolstered by a strong labor market and the potential for a gradual Fed approach in the future. Imminent economic data, such as consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings, could confirm the US recovery, further boosting Treasury yields and the dollar. From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish, with key resistance levels at 153.90 and 155.10, while a correction toward supports at 151.95 and 149.50 might indicate a pause or reversal of the trend.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD: Ready for a Correction After NFP?Analyzing XAU/USD's movement, the price recently hit a fresh all-time high around $2,790 but then experienced a slight pullback to $2,780. Despite this minor drop, the underlying trend remains strongly bullish, driven by the weakness of the US dollar due to mixed macroeconomic data limiting its demand. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a clear bullish setup, suggesting the potential for further highs until a significant correction occurs. After a brief corrective dip, technical indicators have resumed their ascent into overbought territory, signaling that buyers are ready to capitalize on minor price dips. The price could break the psychological threshold of $2,800 before the US presidential elections, with the potential to discover new highs beyond the recent record of $2,789.72. In October, the private sector added 233K new jobs, surpassing expectations and temporarily strengthening the dollar. However, Q3 GDP growth at 2.8% fell short of forecasts, adding downward pressure on the dollar. The quarterly Core PCE Price Index was 2.2%, down from the previous quarter’s 2.8% but above the 2.1% expectation. Despite this decline, inflation remains within the Fed’s tolerance range, reducing the likelihood of an impact on the central bank’s policy decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Will NFP Make the Dollar Drop?GBP/USD weakens around 1.3010 during the European session on Wednesday, staying within a descending channel since September, as the market awaits key economic data, including the UK Autumn Budget, October’s ADP Employment Change, and US Q3 GDP. A close above 1.2975 could attract buyers, pushing the price toward 1.3050, while support remains at 1.2895. The pound remains vulnerable to potential negative economic surprises or restrictive fiscal measures announced in the Budget, as indicated by Prime Minister Starmer, which could increase volatility. Positive US economic data, especially on employment and growth, could strengthen the dollar and further push GBP/USD lower. I am currently long on GBP/USD from last week, aiming for a 1:4 RR. Currently, I'm at a 1:2 RR with SL at BE, so risk-free. Have a great day and happy trading, everyone!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: US Elections and Middle East War!USD/JPY fell towards 152.00 after reaching a 12-week high near 153.20, due to a temporary correction in the US Dollar (USD), which saw the Dollar Index (DXY) dip to 104.20. Despite this, the Dollar's outlook remains bullish, supported by positive economic data such as the October US services PMI, which exceeded expectations with an expansion to 55.3. Political uncertainty and the upcoming US presidential elections further enhance the Dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency. In Japan, the cautious statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who indicated a gradual approach to assessing inflation, suggest that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near term. This divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan continues to support a bullish trend for USD/JPY, with the current correction seen as temporary.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL Ready for $75!WTI oil prices have climbed back to $71.60 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly due to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The possibility of disruptions in oil supplies from the region fuels market uncertainty. However, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories, far exceeding expectations, is putting downward pressure on prices, indicating a potential oversupply. Additionally, the strengthening US dollar, which has reached its highest level since July, is reducing oil demand by making it more expensive for foreign buyers. These factors limit the potential for price increases, despite geopolitical concerns.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAU/USD: Ready for a Pullback!The price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently retreated from an all-time high of around $2,560 and is currently trading slightly below $2,720, complicated by the strength of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Technically, the $2,750 level has shown signs of rejection, making it a key resistance, while immediate support is located at $2,725, near the lower boundary of a two-week ascending channel. A convincing break below this support could trigger technical selling, pushing the price down toward $2,700 and subsequently to $2,680-2,675, where the 100-period simple moving average resides. Despite overbought conditions and pressure from the dollar, political uncertainty and the risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for gold as a safe haven. That said, gold seems poised for a correction toward $2,675, and we will see in the coming days if it gives us a signal for a short entry. Good evening and happy trading to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Is the Dollar Weakness Back?After a brief two-day recovery, GBP/USD reversed course on Monday, losing 0.5% and continuing to show signs of weakness on Tuesday morning, trading slightly below the 1.3000 level. Market sentiment was cautious at the beginning of the week due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which bolstered demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven. The US economic calendar features the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October, though it is not expected to significantly impact the market. Additionally, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York, but without expected comments on monetary policy, the event could have a minimal effect on the pound. The next important data releases for GBP/USD will be on Thursday, with the preliminary PMI Manufacturing and Services Index data for the UK and the US, which could provide further direction for the pair. It is also worth noting that on Tuesday, the market closed the day with a doji candle, opening up a potential bullish opportunity. We will see if today, during the London session, the market provides a clear confirmation to go long. Happy trading, and have a great day!
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Watch for the Rebound!EUR/USD began the week on a bearish note, hitting 12-week lows near 1.0800 as the US dollar remains strong, supported by solid economic fundamentals and rising US yields. Key support levels are at 1.0811 and 1.0775, while major resistance is seen at 1.0930 and 1.1040. The macroeconomic backdrop favors the dollar, with the Fed remaining cautious on rate cuts, and the ECB, despite a recent rate cut, facing weak growth and declining inflation. A drop below 1.0800 could accelerate losses, while a recovery above 1.0875 would be the first positive signal.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Light Crude Oil Futures: Bulls vs. Bears – Big Moves ComingAlright, trading fam, let me set the scene. We’re sitting at $69.40 right now, and the market is coiling like a wave that’s either going to barrel or wipe out everyone trying to ride it. This is one of those setups that makes you lean in because, whichever way it goes, it’s going to be a ride. You ready? Bearish Path – Things Could Get Real Slippery If the price slips below $62.30, it could open up a steep drop to as low as $17.12. Yeah, that’s a long way down. It’s like paddling into the wrong break and realizing there’s no way out without eating sand. If the bears manage to break that key support, all bets are off. Think demand drops, rising inventories, or a stronger dollar that sends oil spiraling lower. Traders who’ve been short are already eyeing this level—if it breaks, they’ll be riding that wave all the way down. Bullish Path – Eyes on the Double Top But here’s the flip side: if the bulls show up and break through $89.10, we’re talking about a potential double top formation. And if that double top gives way? It’s all gas, no brakes, with $129.25 in sight. It’ll take some momentum to push through—maybe supply cuts or geopolitical tensions—but if the bulls catch that wave, it could be a smooth ride to higher levels. What’s the Move? Right now, it’s all about staying patient and reading the flow. If $62.30 holds, you know the bulls still have some fight in them. But if they lose that level, the bears are going to have a field day. On the other hand, if the bulls break through $89.10, it’s game on to higher highs. This is one of those trades where the chart is giving us clear levels, and now it’s just a matter of who takes the wheel. If this breakdown gave you some clarity, follow, share, and pass it along to anyone else riding these markets. Let’s keep an eye on these levels and catch the right wave when it comes. Mindbloome Trader
NYMEX:CL1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
USD/JPY Towards 160 if the Fed doesn’t cut!USD/JPY is currently trading near the 150.00 level, under pressure due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities and a pullback in the US Dollar. The pair is navigating a cautious environment, as mild risk aversion strengthens the safe-haven Japanese Yen. However, despite this pressure, the pair maintains its broader upward trend after breaking a key resistance level. Fundamentally, USD/JPY continues to find support from strong US retail sales data and a resilient labor market, along with rising US Treasury yields. This has led investors to reduce the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the November meeting, keeping the dollar supported and the pair on a bullish trajectory.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold Nears $2,700 on Election UncertaintyThe price of gold continues its bullish run, nearing $2,700 per ounce due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, despite the strength of the dollar and rising Treasury yields. Political uncertainty is increasing demand for the precious metal, considered a safe haven, as polls show a tight race. Additionally, the recent decision by the ECB to cut interest rates temporarily strengthened the dollar, but this has not prevented gold from maintaining its positive momentum. Better-than-expected economic data in the U.S., such as increased retail sales and the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index, also supported the dollar, but these factors were not enough to reverse gold’s trend. From a technical standpoint, moving averages, particularly the 20-day SMA around $2,649.50, continue to provide support to the bullish trend, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs remain far below, confirming persistent buyer interest. Technical indicators suggest further upside, though minor short-term corrections may occur, potentially offering new buying opportunities.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Key Levels and Market UncertaintyThe analysis of the GBP/USD pair indicates a context of uncertainty, with the British pound (GBP) seeking support from relatively subdued demand for the US dollar (USD) but lacking clear bullish pressure. The GBP/USD pair is influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including expectations of further easing by the Bank of England (BoE) and key economic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom. Following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September meeting, the dollar gained strength. The minutes revealed that most FOMC members supported a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut, but with caution regarding the future pace of easing, sending a more "hawkish" signal than expected and dampening the prospects for immediate further easing. The pound remains under pressure, as the market expects the BoE to continue with a more accommodative policy, which limits the potential appreciation of the GBP. However, UK economic data could provide short-term support if it surprises to the upside. From a technical perspective, GBP/USD has some key static support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000 (a psychologically important round level), and 1.2940, which could act as deeper support. On the resistance side, 1.3100 corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest uptrend and could be a barrier for bulls, with the next resistance at 1.3170, located at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, representing the next hurdle in the event of a trend reversal.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Geopolitical Concerns Support Gold PricesGold price remains resilient, with buyers showing persistence as long as the static support at $2,630 holds firm. Gold's recent struggle to capitalize on the US Dollar's pullback, following the Greenback's seven-week highs, is notable. Despite weakening US Treasury bond yields, which typically support Gold prices, other global dynamics are weighing on the precious metal. Market risk sentiment remains elevated, driven by expectations of further stimulus measures from China as markets reopened after a week-long break. This surge in risk appetite has suppressed demand for traditional safe-haven assets like Gold and US bonds. Another factor dampening Gold's outlook is the shifting sentiment regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. Following stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which reported robust job growth of 254,000 in September, expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed have almost disappeared. The probability of a 25 bps cut is now seen at 94%, leaving little room for further dovish moves. This has reduced Gold’s short-term appeal, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold. However, geopolitical concerns continue to support Gold prices. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighted by Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and retaliatory rocket launches by Hezbollah into northern Israel, raises the risk of a broader regional war in the Middle East. This geopolitical uncertainty keeps safe-haven demand for Gold alive, counterbalancing the downward pressure from global risk appetite and Fed expectations.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Will geopolitical tension support oil prices? Kazakhstan planned to cut its oil output, while Russia reported lower production in Sep, restricting the supply. Meanwhile, the heightened geopolitical tension in the Middle East increases concerns over oil production and transport. At the same time, market participants remain optimistic about the US economy, which could support oil demand. Today's NFP release may provide insights regarding the US job markets. USOIL has significantly recovered from its low last month. The price retested its support at 67.50 USD per barrel before closing above its psychological support at 70.00 USD per barrel. If USOIL sustains its upward momentum, the price may retest the following resistance at 75.00 USD per barrel. On the contrary, USOIL may return to 70.00 USD per barrel if the price retraces before its continuation.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DynamicCapital-FX
Gold is ready for NFP!Gold (XAU/USD) has shown resilience, bouncing back to around $2,640 per ounce after hitting a daily low of $2,638 on Thursday. This recovery was fueled by growing concerns over a potential conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as a stronger US Dollar. On the fundamental side, gold remains influenced by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Last week, the market predicted with over 60% probability a 50 basis point rate cut by November. However, stronger-than-expected US labor market data have reduced these expectations to 35%, boosting the US Dollar and applying bearish pressure on gold, which tends to lose appeal as the dollar strengthens. Technically, gold is in a phase of uncertainty. A break above $2,673, the weekly high, could signal a resumption of the uptrend, with a potential target of $2,700. Conversely, a break below $2,625 could lead to a test of support at $2,600. In the medium to long term, gold maintains a general bullish trend, supported by its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and the global low-interest rate environment.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1