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Brent Crude Oil Reaches Yearly HighsBrent Crude broke a critical fundamental level of $57 a barrel, a psychological resistance that may see Brent continue to price pre-Coronavirus levels. This is likely on the news that more Americans have received at least one dose of a Coronavirus vaccine than having tested positive for the virus. The United States has been administering vaccines to citizens faster than any other country, with Bloomberg estimating the administration rate at around 1.34 Million doses a day. Oil Supply Side Providing Headwinds, Complementing Demand Strength With the demand side of Oil improving exponentially, OPEC has started to increase crude supply by 300,000 barrels to the market in January – showing their confidence in oil prices’ stability now and going forward. However, disruptions and African nations Nigeria and Libya have slightly offset the supply hike, with a leak in a fundamental pipeline in Libya alongside a suspension in deliveries in Nigeria pulling away around 110,000 barrels of supply off the market. With Brent Crudes futures month’s spreads trading at the highest backwardation in a year, alongside Royal Dutch Shell Plc purchasing the most benchmark-grade cargoes in a single day in 10 years, the physical and financial markets are showing supply tightness and demand for the Crude Oil. Analysts Are Tentatively Positive on Oil Markets Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank A/S, stated that currently, the oil market is “supported by the combination of tightening fundamentals, as seen through the rising backwardation and the renewed risk appetite in the U.S stock market. Other analysts share this perspective, with Bill O’Grady, Executive Vice President at Confluence Investment Management, stating that “the market is going to see supply contract, assuming OPEC doesn’t immediately move to fill the gap.” Furthermore, Goldman Sachs’ commodity analysts estimate of 500,000 a day restriction on supply has been greatly surpassed, with the average supply deficit ranging at around the 900,000 barrels a day mark. Oil’s financial price comes from physical pressures It is important to note that with commodities and other hard asset such as Silver and Gold – the futures market may say one thing. Ultimately, however, it is what happens in the physical market that sets the final price. And in this case, the physical market for Oil is more robust than it was at the peak of the pandemic. Pair that with positive sentiment regarding the vaccine rollouts around the world and a continuation of a supply restriction by OPEC+, and you have a breeding ground for Oil to move higher.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | Oil for the Yearly Close📌 Oil for the Yearly Close Making the rounds...this time onto Oil and we are going to learn from it by firstly tracking our previous 'before' and 'after' the 2020 fact charts to see how the birth took place. A single glance at the Monthly and Daily is sufficient, from mapping our MT and LT charts, our ancestors, we are able to workout the directional flows in the short-term. This point of view, the crux of which can be proven ultimately by understanding which side occupies the useful pivot. In short, the 63/64 levels which we were essentially tracking as our outpost is the same strong resistance that we are heading back too from the possible thrust. The strong resistance The strength of this slingshot up lies in the fat that supply shortages are coming into play across the commodity side, OPEC will remain at the mercy to the problematic lockdowns which will continue into 2021 and most likely beyond. This is not an easy one to trade if you are not already holding longs, the test of 51 and 65 look guaranteed as only a matter of time. I would like to anticipate another test of 🔑 support at 33.7x (low chances right now) which would be an appropriate level to once again add longs in cheaper levels should we see it. Thanks as usual for keeping the feed back coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILLong
by ridethepig
5
Oil markets seeing a brighter future24th February 2020 was when the last time we saw oil hovering around the $55.80 mark. The Oil markets were hammered in 2020, taking investors and traders back to their economics 101 classes. However, unlike traditional markets, the Oil markets have something traditional markets do not – controlled supply. OPEC+ controlling the supply of Oil OPEC+, a 24- country cartel, took drastic measures as of late to control the drop in oil price by restricting supply. The most recent supply cut by 1 million barrels a day by Saudi Arabia has pushed Oil markets to levels not seen since 24th February last year. Saudi’s unexpected move was on the back of the OPEC+ decision to gradually bring back supply to the market in January. However, the de-facto leader claims the Oil market throne The Energy Minister of the Oil-dependent country, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated that “ are the guardian of the industry”, showing their influence in the Oil markets. Oil markets getting bullish recommendations from institutions Since December, Oil prices have rebounded 18% on the vaccine’s slow rollout, peaking at around $56 a barrel. With the rollout of Vaccinations, analysts at Goldman Sachs are becoming bullish on the Black Gold, stating that they predict Brent could rise to $65 a barrel by the summer of this year, bringing the timeline half a year from their previous prediction. However, they stated that “given the magnitude of the recent rally, however, markets are likely to consolidate near-term,” Given the Coronavirus situation worldwide, the demand situation has not improved to the point where it was on the 24th February, giving the price of oil the characteristic of a forward-looking stock instead of a spot looking commodity. However, if the vaccine continues to make its way around the world and demand truly starts picking up, we may see the Oil markets return back to a relative norm.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
WTI Crude - Time for a correction?Oil prices have been on a fantastic run since early November and with reports emerging of a deal between OPEC+ members on production in February, they've been given another bump today, up close to 4% at the time of writing. That leaves WTI trading just shy of $50 once again, after running into resistance around here on Monday. A deal to keep output steady is undoubtedly good news for oil prices but how much is already priced in? Does crude have a breakout above $50 in it? The momentum indicators suggest this will be very challenging. They've already been posting lower highs on the daily chart since mid-December, after which price has made new highs. A lot of positive news is priced into oil prices now and this wave we're going through is looking far more severe than many anticipated due to new strains. The near-term risks may be to the downside in oil, although with OPEC+ monitoring the situation so closely and, importantly, acting when necessary with high compliance, any slip in prices may be limited to just a small correction. The outlook is much improved for oil prices, producers just need to navigate cautiously for a few more months. A break of yesterday's lows may signal the corrective move is underway, with the real test then coming around $46, where the 200 SMA meets support from mid-to-late December.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by OANDA
WTI Crude - Time for a correction?Oil prices have been tearing higher since the start of November, rising more than 40% to return to far healthier levels. The rally has started to slow though and with so much good news - vaccines, OPEC+ deal, US stimulus deal (almost) - now priced in, I wonder whether we're about to see a bit of a corrective move. WTI has trended higher nicely, following the 55/89 period SMAs on the 4-hour chart and a break of this may be the first clue that it's run its course. WTI peaked just above $49 today, entering what has been a major area of support over the last couple of years before becoming resistance in early 2020. While a US stimulus deal would be positive for oil demand in the coming months, I wonder how much it is already priced in. It may give crude a small bump but would profit taking then kick in?
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by OANDA
WTI: formation similar to SPX and NasdaqHi Guys, the pullback from C continues and it's looking more and more like a continuation of the bulls run initiated back in April. From September to October WTI accumulated before rising up again in November. This accumulation period resamble a WM formation with some harmonic patterns inside (XABCD). It is very similar to the harmonic pattern unfolded by Nasdaq and SPX: Please share your views and comments below. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
Oil running out of steam...A difficult call here after clearing OPEC manoeuvre. Of course the supply sacrifice was possible, but the shallow support is now completely cooked in the price. For those tracking the full OPEC moves: Of course buyers won the highs and we made some decent gains from the latest taking of the latent 46 highs. But as this price action is showing, we have to deal with profit taking and further lockdowns coming for California and etc will not help. The theory of a revisit of $41 / $40 will cast light on the extended lockdowns, covid chapter (3) and an eventual flood on supply side one more time. In the long term, we are back to the previous breakdown that we traded last Winter. The macro retrace is almost over and as sellers start to form a high, it appears that late buyers are exposed and are likely to be sent backwards. The highs did not hold, to confirm the break up was rotten we need to get back below $45. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | OPEC, Oil and everything in-betweenA quick chart update here after reaching the 4th wave targets in a retrace; Buyers now have a definite advantage going into OPEC; an extension of the cuts will be enough to open the position towards $50. But the advantage is only tiny, as we are back at the previous breakdown from our long-term macro charts: OPEC now need to play the desperation moves with precision and genuine artistry. In my books, a master-stroke from Saudis with Iran noise there in the background incase a diversion is needed to complete the flow. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILLong
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Natural Gas Breaking Out!A nice swing cooking right on time for December seasonality flows to kick in. This leg higher threatens the sacrifice of resistance and creates freedom to manoeuvre towards $4 and $5 in 2021. We have a similar sized move cooking in energy to the leg we traded in Oil, only this time round the swing we are tracking is to the topside. See for example the following breakdown we traded in Oil; In the ST, play with the flow and continue ride the leg higher towards something like +/- 3.5 and 4.0 as the extension. Sellers are quite paralysed. For the MT and LT as we know, the philosophy of transition towards a 'Green new Deal' or 'Build back better' in such a short period of time constitutes a pipe dream. Already power grids are coughing badly with so much activity from lockdowns and more people at home, the theory that we will all be driving electric cars and etc looks quite far... one cannot rebuild energy without great difficulties is important to understand. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
NLong
by ridethepig
1
WTI: November 2020Hi Guys, November is ending today and it has been a positive month for WTI unless today's meeting by OPEC+ ruins the party. Since OPEC+ mended their differencies back in April and started implementing drastic production cuts, WTI climbed back above the blue horizontal line and was supported above it before running again this month. SMA points down but still well above latest candlestick. Sentiment testing its medium point of equilibrium in conjunction with price testing violet horizontal line which represents previous level of support now became resistence. I'd look for a contact with descending bearish pressure represented by SMA and red trendlines. However NOT now. Maybe in January or February next year. It also depends on how it unfolds the pattern in the circle which will mainly depend on OPEC+ decisions. Let's wait for the outcome of OPEC+ meeting. Please share your views and comments below. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
1
WTI: what's happening in the circle?Hi Guys, watch out for news from OPEC+ The pattern in the circle may be the beginning of a flag or a pennant. Following the divergence with sentiment (RSI) between S2, S3 and S4, price started a pullback above Saudi-Russia Oil Price War levels of 43.830 where it formed the pattern inside the circle. So far the pullback is made of an impulse(1), a correction(2), an impulse(3), a correction(4) and another impulse that took it above 43.830. What is going to be its next move? Please share your views and comments below. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
1
Oil at fresh highs as demand-side brightensThe oil markets have been seeing the light as of late. Oil prices have reached an eight-month high, with WTI and Brent Crude trading around $45 and $48. This is from the recent positive vaccine news, alongside better than expected EIA data and geopolitical supply-side tensions. Oil supply and demand fundamentals are getting brighter Peter McNally, global head of industrials, materials, and energy at Third Bridge, stated that “it has been a really good run. We haven’t seen a run like this since the spring after we went to negative prices.” He also stated that “Sentiment has changed pretty quickly… lately it feels like supply and demand fundamentals are heading in the right direction.” Many markets have been revolving around optimism on a vaccine, and Oil is no exception. The Price of Oil has come a long way, from the price war between Saudi and Russia earlier this year, alongside Oil going negative in late April. With the vaccine in sight, the Oil markets are banking on increasing demand in the following months. Bloomberg also reported that Chinese and Indian refiners had issued a large number of tenders seeking crude Oil for loading in Jan, highlighting the strong demand from parts in Asia. The supply side is also providing pressure for Oil upwards, with the geopolitical tensions rising with recent attacks on a fuel depot in Saudi and an oil tanker in the Red Sea. Oil rally also causing problems for OPEC However, the main governing body for the oil markets, OPEC, is having some troubles with their members. Iraq, which requires an oil fiscal break-even price of $64, is voicing their frustrations at OPEC’s “one size fits all” policy. Iraq’s Finance and Deputy Prime Minister, Ali Alawi, stated that “We have reached the limit of our ability and willingness to accept a policy of one size fits all.” Although they have breached OPEC’s quotas many times this year, Iraq is quite influential within OPEC, as they are the largest producer after Saudi Arabia. OPEC is set to renew its policies regarding supply cuts on December 1st. OPEC is placed in an awkward position, as rising oil prices means it’s harder to come to a consensus for the 13 countries on whether they should continue to cut supply to the market, in turn, giving up the opportunity to lock in revenue for years to come.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.11.25This linkage with Oil is a well known school, which believed only in absolute freeing moves can be a forced to be reckoned with. In 90 cases out of 100 I consider it worth recommending. Even after the defensive breakdown in Oil with Covid chapter I, it should in no way b overestimated that we are suddenly reaching the previous breakdown manoeuvre. Thus in this position, what is in play is a cleansing of USD shorts as the move got out of hand. Some large macro players were caught on the CAD bid yesterday, out of position if you ask me and well into the middle of the range. Asking for a squeeze up towards 1.306x and 1.314x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Oil Entering into Resistance📌 Oil - Election Positioning Map @ridethepig Here we are approaching the strong 41.5x resistance, the same levels we have been tracking since calling an end to the v shapers rebound. OPEC now has the difficult task of provoking price into action, any manoeuvres on the supply side will not be able to offset the demand shock from further restrictions and lockdowns entering back into play. For those who remember the pre-covid chart, we are in a very similar environment: For sellers here and now, the 41.5x represents a certain chance of setting up fresh shorts and attacking both the centre and the low in our map. It should be clear that we are in a dead cat bounce still from the initial knee jerk reaction flow. Expecting a test of the lows and $30 extensions before building a more solid basing formation. An extremely instructive example of how we can find openings in the chaos.
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
5
WTI: just some considerations (4H)Hi Guys, XABC are the moves unfolded since 2 Sept. inside the violet circle in the daily snapshot below: It looks like an Harmonic Pattern/W-Formation supported at 36.(280), the same level it was when WHO declared pandemic emergency status on 11 March. The divergence in RSI between S2 and S3 is not as evident as it is in the daily chart but was enough to boost the pullback from 36.(280)(C). Is the pullback from C exausted itself already? The move from C was stopped at B (previous high made on 18 Sept.) but never reached bullish momentum (not overbought) as it did the move from A (overbought). After C price was pushed down at B right after OPEC published World Oil Outlook 2045 and said "The Worst Is Over" for the Oil Market. Why? Here the monthly view which I hope may help to improve the perspective. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
final time oil i think my first two ideas were not upto scratch. i think looking back on 4h chart we can inverted head and shoulders with a pullback to the neckline, what is confusing right now though is the 4h pinbar and overbought accumulation on that particular timeframe. I personally believe the daily chart is still pretty bullish after making higher highs. so i love price action trading this would be a really nice set up. the short on the pinbar could also work so im taking a smaller risk position.
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn6102956