Could Crude at $100 per Barrel Be a Reality?The question of the U.S. Debt limit is off the agenda at least for two months after President Joe Biden signed a funding bill to prevent government shutdown and allow funding through to December 3. Investors held their breath last week to see where stock indexes would land, and the answer is they rebounded by 0.82-1.43%.
The new week starts with the OPEC+ meeting amid expectations that the oil cartel and its allies would rise crude production above the scheduled 400,000 barrels per day limit. OPEC+ may revise quotas for November as the demand for crude rose unexpectedly high. Western countries are the most worried about rising crude prices and consider that the additional volumes of crude production may bring prices down sharply. Brent crude benchmark prices recently spiked to $80.75 per barrel.
However, some believe that the gas crisis and soaring gas prices may instigate crude prices to jump to $100 per barrel, and this may spur a global economic crisis, according to the Bank of America cited by Bloomberg.
The price for gas in Europe is already an equivalent to the price of crude at $190 per barrel. Several European gas-consuming companies have filed for bankruptcy. Crude prices have only 10% left from the peaks of 2018. If Brent crude prices would hold above $86-87 per barrel technically such targets could be achieved, and may move Brent crude prices even above $115-117 per barrel.
However, it is too early to dive into wishful thinking as we have the situation now, and now we are at the important crossroads as the resistance line that started in 2008 and is crossing peaks in 2012 and 2014 is crossing the level of $79-80 per barrel, where the current Brent crude price is located. So, price is testing this resistance for the fourth time now, while the last time was in 2014, which makes a huge gap of 7 years. So, we may not consider as certain that this time this test would finally lead to a breakthrough. So, we may not also exclude the possibility that the price would fail to hold above $80 per barrel and would follow the 13-year downward trend. In this case Brent crude prices may plunge to $70 per barrel, at the support line of the trend that started in March 2020.
Opec
XAU/USD weekly analysisIn this post, we will analyze the weekly Forex gold with the symbol XAU/USD.
Fundamental analysis
According to a previous analysis of the EUR/USD , fundamental news will be released next week, which could cause strong volatility.
At the beginning of the week, when the OPEC meeting takes place and US banks are closed, we expect investors to pay attention to gold. They probably prefer to buy gold over dollars and oil, which creates an uptrend to near the previous floor.
Crossing the previous floor
If the previous floor, the 1790 range, is broken, this analysis will be incorrect and the gold trend will be bullish, otherwise it is still in a bearish trend.
Also, if it goes according to the analysis, the gold will fall close to the trend line and react to this range.
Signal
Within 1 hour, we see a cup and handle pattern. Of course, I agree that these patterns are old and unreliable, but they can be identified as a signal for the growth of gold near the site.
Education excerpt: OPECThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent intergovernmental organization with main goal to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries. This pertains mainly to securing fair and stable pricing in the oil market; efficient and regular supply of petroleum to consuming nations and fair return on capital to the producing countries.
The OPEC was established in Baghdad, Iraq in 1960 by five countries. Founding countries were: Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. One year later the organization was joined by Qatar in 1961. After that Indonesia and Libya followed in 1962. United Arab Emirates joined the cartel in 1967 and Algeria in 1969. Then Nigeria became member of the OPEC in 1971, Ecuador in 1973 and Gabon in 1975. Few decades later, Angola joined the OPEC in 2007, Equatorial Guinea in 2017 and Congo in 2018.
Ecuador suspended its membership in 1962. However, it rejoined the cartel in 2007. But then again in 2009 Ecuador withdrew its membership from OPEC. Similarly, Indonesia suspended its membership in 2009 and rejoined the cartel in 2016 only to leave it again in 2016. Gabon also suspended its membership in 1995. Although, Gabon reactivated its membership in 2016. Qatar was the last country to terminate its membership in 2019.
Current members:
1. Iraq
2. Iran
3. Kuwait
4. Saudi Arabia
5. Venezuela
6. Libya
7. United Arab Emirates
8. Algeria
9. Nigeria
10. Gabon
11. Angola
12. Equatorial Guinea
13. Congo
The OPEC's executive organ is called the Secretariat and it is run by the Secretary General. Secretariat was originally established in 1961. It also functions as headquarters for the organization. In the beginning, OPEC had its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland for five years. However, OPEC's headquarters were moved to Vienna, Austria in 1965. Executive organ is responsible for implementation of all resolutions passed by the Conference. Secretariat also conducts research and fullfills all decisions made by the Board of Governeros.
The Secretary General is the representative of the OPEC who simultaneously acts as Executive of the Secretariat. The Secretary General is electable role and its term last three years. Although, there is possibility to renew this term once. The Secretary General is assisted by the Office of the Secretary general and several other officers and staff members of the OPEC. The Office of the Secretary general helps the executive chief of the Secretariat to maintain efficient relations with relevant international organizations and governments. Another important organ of the organization is the Legal Office which supervises legal matters of the Secretariat and provides legal advice to the Secretary General. In addition to that, there is also the Research Division that consists of three departments: Data Services, Energy Studies and Petroleum Studies. The Research Division is responsible for conducting research with regards to the energy and related matters. Infrastructure and services are provided by the Support Services Division.
OPEC Fund
The OPEC Fund for International Development is international finance development institution that was established in 1976. It consists of 12 members: Algeria, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesia, IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. Its purpose is to provide financial help to the developing countries and support advancement in these low-income and middle-income countries.
Disclaimer: This content serves solely educational purpose.
UKOIL monthly technical analysis !TVC:UKOIL
Hi everyone , I hope you're all fine .
- UKOIL has recently broke downtrend and also the price had a pullback to the broken trendline
- Also the price is is moving in a ascending channel
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the next resistances would be :
1- 86.70 (which is the top of channel and also last resistance
2- 116.00 (which is a nice resistance with 4 touches since 2012 and 2016 until now
now let's see some fundamental info about OIL :
- US crude inventories fell more than expected last week, hitting a three-year low, according to the US Petroleum Institute and the US Energy Information Administration. The upward trend in natural gas is likely to lead to increased demand for black gold.
This year, crude oil has grown by more than 80 percent since the beginning of the year, as the global economic recovery from the Corona outbreak significantly boosted demand. On the supply side, OPEC Plus members are also gradually reducing their production restrictions.
In addition, Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas affected production in the United States. The Gulf of Mexico was hit hard in late August (early September) and September (early October), respectively.
Given the imminence of the fourth quarter and the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere, some investors predict a continued upward trend in prices.
The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) said the market deficit was higher than expected, raising Brent oil forecast from $ 10 to $ 90 a barrel at the end of the year .
Source : Investing.com
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so what's your opinion guys ??
we'd be glad to see your idea in comments .
Pure Technical WTI TradeIn this analysis I do NOT consider fundamental factors that significantly influence the oil price. Thus I only focus on time period as short as can possibly be on technical basis.
There is some convincing technical setup arising on WTI H4 timeframe with good signals each of which is worth taking into consideration, at least to me.
1) Broken short term descending trend line on attempt #4.
2) The price has returned exactly to the 50% fibo area and has not closed below the local support area so far.
3) RSI shows gained momentum on highlighted support area with open space up.
4) Latest candle rejected the selling pressure and printed the "Hammer" formation on significant confluence level (look at #2).
5) (ok just a little bit of fundamentals) There is no sight of significant price changes since OPEC has no reason to change its plan of production revival and covid seems to be under control (hopefully).
To me RRR of 2 with highlighted limit orders makes sense in short term. Let me know what you think about that!
The next 3 weeks should be fun.We plowed through new highs last week as I anticipated in a bull case last week.
The green levels in this weeks chart are last weeks major daily support / resistance levels from a couple order flow experts on fintwit.
First thing I learned in stocks was that when the Normies (normal people) know, it's time to go.
The 19th* dip trend I've been following since last week has started hitting MSM.
With that in mind, I find myself second guessing the 19th dip prediction this coming September and instead planning the extremes that could occur instead.
1. We could start unwinding OPEX/VIX early as big money tries to get ahead of the normies buying the 19th dip.
2. More explosive events and FUD fill the market and we actually run above the 1.5Y median like we did last end of September.
3. We stay in tight, low volume trading ranges, accumulate at the 1.5y median followed by a spring event, distribution/bull trap and a sell off into VIX / OPEX and Buy the Dip 19th*.
I love this game.
On OPEC & OILSince May 2021, S&P 500 has gained almost 10%, while Copper/Oil ratio has lost 52%; which means oil prices are relatively higher than the Global economic growth capacities.
IEA reported the same idea on Global OIL demand this week, which is totally in contrast with OPEC's demand assessments noted in it's August report.
Since these high prices are weighing on U.S. Trade Balance & causing inflationary pressures, White House has already reached OPEC for lower prices.
While OPEC is counting on strong Global growth to reach it's basket pricing, a failure on that could force the Cartel to cut it's prices; The bad scenario is a continued divergence between OPEC basket pricing & the global growth capacities, which could at last end in a pressure on World Economies which are already in ultra low Interest Rates & looming Tapering stages.
I believe the above divergence scenario has a little chance to happen, But still a possibility since OPEC miscalculation isn't new.
Whether OIL prices lower to match the world growth capacity or world recovery reach the high energy prices according to OPEC's anticipation, is to be judged by the unveiling Fundamental Factors including Delta variant outbreak & vaccines effectiveness.
However any prolonged divergent policy, despite being unlikely, could cause recessionary pressures.
Breaking: The OPEC report is issuedOPEC monthly report was issued a few minutes ago, and the report was not positive for OPEC+ and the oil-producing countries within the group, led by Saudi Arabia. OPEC kept its forecast for oil demand in 2021 unchanged at an increase of 6 million barrels per day, bringing the average to 96.6 million barrels per day, and also kept its forecast for the growth of oil demands in 2022 by 3.3 million barrels per day, bringing the average production to 99.86 million barrels per day.
While OPEC+ raised its expectations for an increase in the production of oil-producing countries outside the group by 840 thousand barrels per day, to reach an increase of 2.9 million barrels per day, with a total average of 66.9 million barrels per day in 2022.
It also raised its forecast for the production growth of oil-producing countries outside the group in 2021 by 270,000 barrels per day to reach 1.1 million barrels per day, with a total average of 64 million barrels per day.
US Oil - Sell Off Equal highs got raided & Price came back to institutional candle. Looking for minor pullback to enter sell.
USDWTI H4 - Long SetupUSDWTI H4
A break short of $70/barrel would be quite significant in my eyes, threatening the break as we speak, but need to ideally see a solid H4 close below. Our H4 support region is trading marginally below that $70 whole number, but the 'zone' is still a decent support region.
Just need to wait for price exhaustion, especially with a volatile pair like WTI. Not personally something I'm looking to trade this early on in the week, but worth updating the watchlist from yesterdays webinar.
Fundamental Updates – OPEC+ United Once Again (19 July 2021)A compromised deal.
After a two-week stalemate in the discussion, the OPEC+ reconvened its meeting over the weekend. As part of a compromise, the oil-producing group has agreed for a raise in the production baseline for five members.
Oil production baseline increment in barrels-per-day (bpd)
Saudi Arabia: 500,000 bpd
Russia: 500,000 bpd
UAE: 332,000 bpd
Iraq: 150,000 bpd
Kuwait: 150,000 bpd
Although the baseline for the UAE has been raised, it falls short from the UAE’s initial request by 300,000 bpd. It was also revealed that Algeria and Nigeria have requested for an increase in their individual baselines.
With the issue of production baseline resolved, the OPEC+ had finalized a deal. Starting from August, there will be a hike in oil production by 400,000 bpd. Furthermore, the group has agreed to phase out the current 5.8 million bpd of oil production cut by September 2022.
Impact on oil prices.
Prior to this deal, the market believed that without a unanimous agreement, the OPEC+ will retain their current oil production quota. And since the OPEC+ is currently running on a supply deficit, the possibility of maintaining the current production quota led to the strengthening of oil prices. Now that the storm is over, a downward pressure has been placed on oil prices due to the increase in supply. This explains why oil prices started declining when the market kickstarted a new week earlier today.
Impact on the Canadian dollar.
As we know, there is a positive correlation between oil prices and the Canadian dollar (as oil prices rise, Canadian dollar tends to rise, vice-versa). In that sense, the Canadian dollar weakened as a result of the increase in oil supply by the OPEC+. This can be seen from the strengthening of USD/CAD and the weakening of CAD/JPY when the market opened earlier today.
USO - bearish double topOPEC + just agreed to increase output until 2022, Gasoline stockpiles build up more than expected EIA report July 13. Look for bear flag to form on 4 hour. PT .618 Fib level or 47.75. August - Usually refiners shutdown and that means build up of inventory. The only bullish case I see, if there are major hurricanes knocking out supply in Gulf of Mexico. I am in 8/20 $48 puts at 1.5, current 4000 OI. Good Luck this week!
USOIL OPEC+ 2021'mess, first ceiling of 2021?USOIL - OPEC+
Just one word: GREED! ...
OPEC+ Crisis Propels Oil to Six-Year High as Market Tightens
TVC:USOIL
www.bloomberg.com
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Brent oil buyers remain hopeful inside five-week-old channelAlthough the weekly falling trend line probes Brent oil buyers of late, the commodity prices remain inside an ascending trend channel from May 27, not to forget staying beyond 100-SMA. The same joins an upbeat RSI line to keep buyers directed towards an immediate resistance line of $76.00. However, any further upside will be questioned by the stated channel’s upper line, close to $77.50. In a case where the oil bulls remain dominant past $77.50, the late October peak surrounding $78.00 may test the rally targeting the $80.00 psychological magnet.
Meanwhile, pullback moves become less concerned until staying beyond the 100-SMA level of $74.10, needless to mention the channel support of $74.50. Also acting as a downside filter is the $74.00 mark, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to decline towards the mid-June lows near $72.00. It’s worth noting that Thursday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s US NFP, not to forget Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, become the key events for energy traders.
wti shortHey guys!
Trading should be simple, when you over complicate things you are usually way to attached mentally/emotionally to a setup/trade.
Here's WTI.... OPEC coming up again tomorrow with the first meeting being a solid "nothing", and that "nothing" helped us form a pullback, but that pullback resulted into a lower high... meaning this is now a solid bearish setup.
We are short on WTI and you can see why,
- bearish wedge
- Lower high on RSI
- Lower price action high
- Double top rejection
Good luck trading!
Crude Oil Headed Towards $70 p/bThe price of crude consolidated above $68.00 following yesterday's OPEC conference, which underpinned growing demand driven by robust global recovery.
The price is currently trading at its highest level in over a year (since before the coronavirus crash), which could cause volatile fluctuations nears this historic resistance.
Traders looking to join the rally need to utilise trend continuation strategies under the Wyckoff Cycle method.
Us oil high decrease price pressure Chart looks clean and easy. Make your own decision . Wait for oil to make a clear price action.
15% Move for Brent Oil Brent Oil trading within the Apex we are soon to
get a breakout or breakdown .
As detailed on the chart we can see that the .75 Fib has been
a Strong support for Brent since December 2020 and is still respected .
With that said we have a measured move of around 15 percent for this to extend
its uptrend into the 80 dollar zone or retreat back to the 56 Dollar level where we can expect support to hold .
Like and Follow for Daily Analysis , signals and to see or hear my perspective .
Know your Invalidation and Trade With a Plan .
PLEASE NOTE THIS PERSPECTICE IS BASED UPON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ONLY
I DO NOT FOLLOW ANY GEO POLITICS THAT OF COURSE CAN EFFECT THE OUTCOME
SHOW ME THE CHART AND I WILL TELL YOU THE NEWS IS HOW I WORK
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 18 – Expecting a drop.In our previous forecast, we were expecting WTI to fall and reach the liquidity pool. Instead, the price increased, but our bias hasn’t changed.
For next week, we expect the price to lose some steam and drop towards the support area that we highlighted.
Keep an eye on Wednesday’s weekly EIA stocks report as it may have an impact on this asset.
Trade with care.
Best regards,
Financial Flagship
Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
SCARY DAY ! IF IT'S WEDNESDAY IT'S MAD!
Or
THE BRIDGE OF SighS !!!
The Fed, OPEC, BIDEN, COVID and the outside rain hit the same day. With the slogan roast the pastures, poison the fountains, scare the investors, the Bau Bau group above seems to have brought a total eclipse of daily optimism on the financial markets. From Crypto to metals, they all seem set for declines at today's opening, on the principle "head in the ground, the sword does not cut it", learned from the Service Ostrich. Google alone, the new owner of dream reports, seems to be successfully withstanding this fiery day.
Of course, a lot can change during the day, and especially after each event. But it is important to decrypt Powell and Biden's messages today, faster and better than an SRI did with the Russian spy.
And no matter how hard Powell tries to convince us that the rate is going up, and inflation is transient, the olfactory organ that grows more than Pinocchio is empty. We expect uncertainties until 9.30pm, when Powell's diction can impact indices, metals and of course EUR / USD.
Then comes Biden somewhere late at night, who armed with Tony Robbins 'books, and Houdini's will, will try to fool Congress into cutting a healthy slice of the Americans' ready money cake. I don't think it will succeed, at least not at the level mentioned in the press, but Piata is already more cautious than the law stipulates, only according to rumors. After all, if you ask for a block of flats, to get at least a 10-room villa, it seems like a solid strategy. Let's see where the pot closes.
Until another one, do you remember that suspension bridge through China, where, in addition to the infernal balance, the glass was breaking under your feet !? So is the sensation of the markets today. But just like at that bridge, in the end everything was just imagination, and you were safely at the opposite end.
After today's storm, I predict a quiet morning tomorrow. Green because it's spring. And what could be more enjoyable on a spring morning if not a collectible coffee. And a cigar eventually ... And profit in portfolios. So I'm free today. I let others shake their heads ...
We'll be talking tomorrow when I think we'll have .....
EVERYTHING GREEN !!!
Oil: OPEC+ sticking to raise output from MayThe originally scheduled 4/28 (3) OPEC+ ministerial meeting was held ahead of schedule on 4/27. The resolution was held on hold and was in line with market expectations. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained stood at the prices of $63 and $66 per barrel respectively.
MM Analysis
On Tuesday evening, the OPEC JMMC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (providing OPEC policy advice) recommended to maintain the agreement reached at the beginning of April (gradually increase in output by 350k, 350k, and 440k barrels per day from May to July). With the consent of 23 member states, the originally scheduled 4/28 OPEC+ ministerial meeting was also held ahead of schedule, and the resolution was held on hold and was in line with market expectations. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices stood at $63 and $66 per barrel respectively.
Although the world’s important crude oil importing countries-India, Brazil, and Japan are facing a new Covid-19 wave, creating uncertainty for the recovery of crude oil demand, the OPEC JTC (Joint Technical Committee) remains optimistic about the trend of global economic recovery, maintaining the global crude oil demand forecast for 2021 at 96.5 million barrels/day, an increase of 5.95 million barrels/day from last year, and it is estimated that the OECD commercial crude oil inventory level will be digested in July this year to below the past 5-year average.
The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled on June 1, 2021, production quotas for July and August of this year will be discussed.
HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY !! HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY!
10:30 p.m. Warm morning sun, some nature chirping from the birds around, a great time to enjoy a coffee. Start HOLY WEEK!
Financially speaking, after a recovering Friday, it would be natural for the green to flood the Square today. And maybe it will be! But we can't help but glance over the cup of coffee at the situation of the week that seems hectic. First of all, thanks to reports, a number of world giants must be in the works. But this is not necessarily the problem, because they are expected to report well. The problem would be Wednesday, a really explosive day.
Let's see why:
1. Biden's speech.
Nothing can be more worrying than Biden's speech at Wednesday's joint congressional session, where he is expected to reveal the first details of his widely reported tax hike so far, planned for the wealthiest of Americans.
The president of all wants an unlikely 43.4% for the richest Americans, bringing combined state and federal taxes to places like New York and California to over 50% !! No matter how difficult it will be for him to impose in the congress, in the short term the Market will react to rumors.
2. OPEC meeting
Normally this meeting would sanctify the plans established a month ago if no other events happen in the last period. But ... didn't it happen ?! Well, India is the world's third largest consumer of oil, on infusions and fans literally, after a series of days with over 300k infections / 24 hours. Japan, the 4th largest consumer, also has problems with Covid ul. Iran lags behind with progress in talks with US, which may mean it will export oil again sometime in the not too distant future
3. EDF meeting
Originally categorized as a NON Event, it could be an influence in various directions. Of all, I would mention the Precious Metals Market. In a long-awaited recovery, they have already stumbled at the first resistance, diverted by various external factors.
One could be Powell, who enters an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, said the central bank will limit any exceeding of its inflation target.
In any case, metal prices are expected to consolidate, or even decline, until Powell's post-Fed press conference.
As a result, we have 3 events + quarterly reports, which can send almost any sector in almost any direction, affecting virtually the entire market. Normally, near such confluences, investors stand a little aside. Normally I said, but is it a period of normalcy !?
Of course not !!!
So we have 2 interesting days until Wednesday, when we hoped we would have:
EVERYTHING ABNORMALLY GREEN !!!
