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OPEC+ Boosts output put Oil prices downCrude oil plunged below 40$ on opec output news, Daily chart suggesting more weakness ahead till 35.50 levels with a mild support at 36.55 (sept 8th low) Upside resistance lies at 38.80 or 136ma. Almost all timeframes RSI trading at over sold regions giving some caution for fresh sells. Who ever sold at highs can take profit here and wait for the slight rebound till 38 level and take fresh sell for downside said level. Overall sell on rise is advised.
TVC:USOILShort
by OfficialYaMarkets
USOIL FUTURES TANK BELOW $20 \ SLIPPERY WHEN WETSeemingly in the middle of a tug-o-war exhibition, both bears and bulls are jocking hard for position on USOIL. I always say that this particular instrument is the bloodline of America. Considering the political and socioeconomic status at this time, its only right that the price of USOIl metaphorically also becomes unstable. With COVID-19 continuing to be the elephant in every room, there's plenty of reason to be bearish on not just USOIL but DXY as well. I have no EMA numbers for you, no historical price points either. Just a nice, simple mark-up that points way, way south.Whenever price seems as if it's going sideways, it really wants to go down from my experience. Minus a few dead cat bounces here and there, without momentum no meaningful moves can be executed. Barring an increase and hold in price above, $41.39 - this looks to be slow traveling train in one steady direction.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn5320750
2
Could we see a full oil recovery this year?Some quick numbers – Globally, there are over 15 Million Coronavirus cases and 618,000 deaths due to the pandemic. An estimated 47 million people may lose their jobs in the United States alone. Oil dived into negative, an unprecedented move. However, the NASDAQ is having its best year having made a V shape recovery, Elon Musk is the 13th Richest person in the world surpassing Warren Buffet, and masks are all the rage. However, this optimism hasn’t translated into the oil markets. Although we’ve seen a double in price from its March lows, March lows were around $16-$20 a barrel, which is fiscally and financially unsustainable for all oil-producing companies. This V-shape recovery in equities was caused by investors and traders baking in potential future earnings and using it to value the stock price now. The main problem is that there is no set rule as to how far ahead in the future investors and traders should look forward – enabling essentially an “oh, they’ll be fine after the Coronavirus” mentality. Oil does not have this luxury. Oil needs to be delivered every month. This means speculators and traders (in the physical market) can’t wait for future results. If the equity markets look into the future, the spot market looks at the now. With Gold, a safe haven asset reaching all-time highs and Oil struggling to get back past its boom days, both commodities recognize the current risks the world faces due to the Coronavirus. We can see that in the United States, the recovery in oil is stalling due to a second wave of the Coronavirus, forcing people to travel less and stay at home more. Cushing Crude oil stocks are not coming down from their all-time highs, and Petrol demand is down 100,000 barrels per day (b/d). We may see a spread between the US benchmark WTI and Brent Crude, the global benchmark as travel around the world picks up relative to the United States. However, long term trends with government stimulus for greener alternatives to fossil fuels may prevent oil from ever getting back to its hay days. With Joe Biden putting clean energy at the forefront of his $2 Trillion campaign and the EU 750 Billion Euro recovery fund pledging 1/3 of the fund to fight climate change, oil sees pressure downwards both from the demand and supply side. The fundamental issue with oil is the opportunity cost dynamic relative to other energy sources. With oil prices quite low, renewable resources are expensive in comparison to oil. However, with billions of government stimulus, alongside the supply of oil slowly drying up, exploration for new oil reserves would yield a lower return, increasing the opportunity cost and oil price. While a restriction in supply and an increase in price would be good for oil producers in the short term, with everything else equal, a shift to renewable energy will ensue. Energy Strategist at think-tank Carbon Tracker, Kingsmill Bond, stated that “the world has 50 years of proven oil reserves.” Furthermore, he stated, "the prospect of declining demand as a result of electric vehicle adoption and policy changes means we no longer need a huge oil exploration industry tooled up forever-rising consumption – the talent and resources of the industry can be deployed elsewhere.” However, this has not stopped some producers from making big bets. Chevron acquired Noble energy in an all-stock deal for $13 Billion in amidst of bankruptcies in the oil industry due to the Coronavirus. For now, the Coronavirus is controlling the oil markets. However, we may see a slow shift out of fossil fuels as time goes along.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
Energy Stocks Near End of Monster QuarterEnergy is the leading sector this quarter by a wide margin. SPDR Energy ETF was up 38 percent since the end of March through Thursday’s close. That’s 7 percentage points ahead of the No. 2 consumer-discretionary fund . This creates the potential for some positive window dressing with just eight sessions remaining in the second quarter. There are also fundamental and technical catalysts. The fundamentals are fairly clear: The global economy is reopening. Oil demand is rebounding but supplies are tight. OPEC+ is reining in non-compliant countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, domestic drilling has fallen off a cliff. Did you know that the Baker Hughes rig count (a proxy for U.S. production) has hit record lows for the last six weeks? As usual, oil is a boom-and-bust industry. It just went through a major bust, which may create the potential for a boom. Technically, XLE is parked at the top of a bullish ascending triangle that it broke in early June. It’s also been fighting resistance at its 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA has turned higher and is approaching from the downside. This resembles the pattern on the S&P 500 a month ago before it continued upward. (See below.) XLE had a tight consolidation pattern around $54 before the bottom fell out in February. Traders may want to view that as an upside target and use the 50-day moving average for risk management.
AMEX:XLELong
by TradeStation
Week ahead - GDP and FED Decision. It has been a turbulent week for the markets and social stability. The markets extend their risk on rally during protests around the world for the death of George Floyd and a surprising 2.5m jobs that were created for non-farm employment. This is your week ahead. All dates are in NZDT. Japan’s GDP Annualized – Today, 8th June Japan is an example of a nation that has returned to a relativel normal without fully squashing the curve. This is slowly showing the cracks of their method of not officially entering a lockdown, as the daily number of average cases grow. With an aging population and slowing pre-coronavirus GDP rate, a growing Coronavirus case may not bode well for the long-term view of Japan’s GDP. Analysts forecast a drop in the growth rate by -2.3%. Euro GDP Growth Rate Year over Year – Tuesday 9th June With Italy and Spain opening their borders after a brutal Coronavirus period for both countries, citizens are looking forward to a relatively familiar normal. With the EU’s GDP predicted to shrink by 8.7%, Christine Lagarde led a charge for the ECB to inject an extra $1 Trillion into the economy. There have been 6.8M Coronavirus cases confirmed, with just under 400k deaths. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – Thursday 11th June A turbulent week for the United States with protests over George Floyd’s death engulfing the public with rage. However, markets seemed to ignore the unrest, rallying on unexpected news such as the 2.5m Jobs non-farm jobs gained – a far cry from the anticipated 13.3 million job loss. Analysts predict Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to keep rates steady at 0.25%. However, investors may be interested in Jerome Powell’s Economic Projections on the same day for market-moving statements. United Kingdom’s GDP Year over Year – Friday 12th June Suffering one of the highest death rates for the Coronavirus at around 14.17%, the UK government has had many controversies with regards to their response to the pandemic. Finance ministry officials predict that the government deficit could swell to over 337 Billion pounds this year from just 55 Billion in March. GDP YOY Growth is expected to drop by 22.3%. Market recap Protests continue for a 16th straight day over the death of George Floyd by former policeman Derek Chauvin ECB unveils $1T extra stimulus OPEC+ agrees to extend cuts till the end of June, Brent and WTI futures both above $40 US continues its rally after NFP posts 2.5m jobs gained
TVC:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
9
LONG: EXXON MOBIL CORP. (Petroleum, Oil, Gas)• Ref. the effects of COVID-19 and the OPEC (& Russian) trade disputes fuling the fall of Oil prices. • The FIA halting all motorsport events until JUL 2020 (Austrian Grand Prix). • EXXON MOBIL have a sponsorship deal with Aston Martin Red Bull Racing (Formula1 team) ~ Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc. IPO in Feb 2019 • After the effects covid start to leave the spotlight, we may see the price of petroleum rise and companies such as XOM begin to operate at higher capacities. LONG TERM TRADE -- Optimum target: ~ March/April 2021
NYSE:XOMLong
by infinityPLEX