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CADJPY Reversal Chart Pattern For Sure?!Risk appetite appears to have improved somewhat during the Asian session, and the Loonie has been the strongest among the comdoll bunch. This is likely because the commodity currency is having some strength after Canadian data and a pickup in crude oil as well. After all, there are speculations that the OPEC could consider an increase in output cuts or at least an extension of their agreement in order to prop prices up. On the flip side, the LYSH yen is losing ground to risk-on flows while also facing the possibility of a Q4 GDP contraction. With that, I’m looking at this inverted head and shoulders breakout on CAD/JPY, especially since the pair appears to be making a retest of the broken neckline. If you think that this reversal is about to gain friction from here, shorting in at market with a stop that’s enough to weather the pair’s average daily volatility 50.3 pips could be a good play.
by Anatta0
WTI: Oil traders store crude on tankers at sea. Again!Hi Guys, what happens when some of the world’s biggest oil traders seek to store crude on tankers at sea? The play is to seek to take advantage of the crash in crude prices and make a profit down the line. It happened in 2009 and in 2015 as reported by Reuters back then in this article: www.reuters.com Today Bloomberg reported that the same play is happening again. How will price unfold this time? If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
7
Oil and world are in danger, a pound in anticipationTraditionally, we start the review with news about the coronavirus epidemic. Once again, we note that the matter is even on its scale - thousands of times more people die from ordinary flu, and hundreds of thousands of times more get sick each year. The point is the problems that this epidemic has on the global economy. A number of key industrial centers in China have been completely or partially idle for the third week. Each such day is further destruction of the global supply chain, and if there are still enough stocks in warehouses, then every day the risk of a shortage of materials to continue the activities of companies becomes higher, as well as the scale of losses. One of the main victims this week maybe oil. We wrote that last week OPEC+ was able to tentatively agree to reduce oil production by another 600K b/d. But yesterday information appeared that Russia could refuse this. And here, even in Libya, the warring parties are close to signing a peace treaty, which is fraught with the return of several hundred thousand barrels per day to the oil market. And all this is happening against the backdrop of a sharp drop in oil demand from China. Not surprisingly, some experts predict an oil drop of at least 10% in the foreseeable future. In general, oil sales this week remain our basic trading idea. Returning to the current figures on the scale of the epidemic, we note that the number of deaths is approaching 1,000, and the number of cases is close to 50,000. Once again, we recall that these are official statistics. The main mass of experts converges in opinion, that the figures are underestimated by several times to several tens of times. In connection with such a development of events, we cannot but recall our recommendation to sell the Russian ruble. The conditions for this are almost ideal, especially when you consider that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the rate again last week and plans to do this further in 2020. Today, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it will be interesting primarily for the British pound. Data on GDP and industrial production can trigger a surge in volatility in pound pairs. Given that in recent days, the pound was already under strong downward pressure, weak data will almost certainly trigger a new wave of sales. But at the same time, good numbers can give a start for strengthening the pound - points for its purchases are very attractive. In general, today you can try news trading, with pending orders or enter after the news, playing back a fundamental positive or negative.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USOIL: closely monitoring..which direction going to go?Global uncertainty around coronavirus still present and oil price is pretty much under selling pressure.. ..according to the trend it seems logical to join bears if the price closes below the triangle chart pattern formed on 4h time-frame. However, if there will be any sign of positiveness regarding vaccine or OPEC members decide to cut the supply of oil the price should go up, so it's better to be prepared for joining bulls from a certain point. Enter/exit levels are on the chart, decent R:R in both cases. // Disclaimer: The published idea is my opinion, not investment advice. // Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated + hit like button to support my work.)
FX:USOIL
by GIgor_021
Expecting Further WTI Selling PressureWTI and BRENT are taking heavy hits for some time now with the price dropping strongly on both mainly due to the Coronavirus, but more recently (Friday) due to the OPEC members not being ready to cut production. We expect based on basic technical analysis that price should be moving south, our TP and SL can be seen on the daily chart (on the right) while our trading tactic is done on the 4H and 1H ( 1H not seen in the image ) We will look to compound this sell trade at breaks and retests of key trading levels, such as supports which turn resistances or retests of the 13 EMA on 4H. A video follow up will come as a "related post" to this one explaining more details if you wish to see it make sure you give us a follow.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by PrimedGroup
Oil: Divergence with RSIHi Guys, here below a clean snapshot of the 4H structure reporting the divergence with RSI. Has the impact of "nCoV2019" on Oil ended? The following chart was posted on Jan 28 when worries over "coronavirus" were high and was titled "Don't try to catch a falling knife". After almost two weeks, has Oil finally found a bottom at 49.31? iI don't know but if you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
The markets illogicality the and trading anomaliesTuesday was another recovery day in the financial markets. In general, all this is rather strange and illogical. Markets first fall on the news of coronavirus and the epidemic. Logically and explainable, we will not go into details, and once again build logical chains of consequences. We did this in previous reviews. But upon the receipt of news that the epidemic is developing and becoming the largest in the last 20 years (the number of deaths exceeded 400, and the cases of 20,000), markets begin to calm down instead of continuing to work out a fundamental negative. This can be seen from the dynamics of the stock markets (Nasdaq updated new historical highs, and Tesla shares seem to have forgotten what gravity and common sense are), gold is declining, risky assets are recovering, VIX Fear Index is falling by more than 10% in day, and the Chinese stock market is adding 1-2% per day. The main problem in this chaos is not to lose one’s head and not to succumb to general madness. Ultimately, you need to work not with current prices and their dynamics, but with facts. And the facts are that the epidemic has already caused enormous damage and will continue to cause it. Yes, the extent of the damage is unclear and perhaps it will be partially leveled in one way or another. But it is applied and this is a fact. So, starting from the facts, we consider current prices in the financial markets to be abnormal. Based on the concept of “regression to the average,” prices will sooner or later have to return to their moderately adequate state. Accordingly, today we will buy gold with redoubled energy and volumes (for less aggressive traders, we can recommend selling a pair of USDJPY - the points for sales are simply excellent). Stock market sales remain our No.1 trading idea. Oil sales (WTI benchmark) from 51.20 also seem to be a balanced transaction (stops above 51.20 with profits in the region of 45 or even lower make the transaction extremely attractive). At the same time, we are acting with an eye on OPEC activity. If the cartel decides to intervene, and oil goes above 51.20, then a stop coup is quite possible. Speaking of other news and macroeconomic statistics, we note that today will be published US employment data from ADP. Although the focus of the markets is traditionally focused on the official figures, which will be published on Friday, strong deviations in the fact from ADP from forecasts can provoke significant movements in dollar pairs.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2
WTI Oil: Impact of SARS 2002/2003Hi Guys, just some infos: WTI dropped $15 when the World Health Organization issued a Global Alert iro SARS on March 12, 2003. en.wikipedia.org nCoV2019 was first reported from Wuhan, China, on 31 December 2019 What are your thoughts? If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
ridethepig | Oil Breaking Down !There were the usual people who did not wish to engage in the sell-side before understanding what was being said from the WHO. Experts calling this a national emergency and now stronger players entering into the market with direct shocks on the demand side. Moves likes this, which weaken important structures should if possible be played and as a matter of fact, with large sizings. What is important is that the long-term flows have kept us comfortable in the move: The same highs we traded earlier in 2019: Things have continued.... Sellers are better. Clearly the downside is the correct move. In this position, sellers undoubtedly have the control, but since no one knows the full extent of the penetration nor impact that the coronavirus is having on output, we will remain in uncertain waters and only a supply shock can save the buyers. Those on the bid are praying for protection from OPEC, the silence is crippling. Sellers can consider to either play the direct breakdown through the floor (intending to clear some at 46.97 and holding the rest for the home-run). This of course has to be introduced by NY today and the securing of the break with a daily (and weekly) close. The reply from buyers would be muted, there is no contest below the file. This method is how I have characterised the entire activity by Sellers on each swing attached below. As usual thanks so much for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc! Good luck!
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
6
Oil: “Don’t try to catch a falling knife”Hi Guys, January did not start bad with prices rising and peaking with Operation Martyr Soleimani. Despite this, all gains made in 45 days were lost quickly in 20 days thanks to coronavirus and worries over economic growth and oil demand. Since my last idea on WTI posted on Oct.7, black gold moved from $52 to $65 in approx. 45 days. The peak at $65 was reached when tensions between US and Iran escalated following the killing of the Iranian General Soleimani on Jan.3 and Iran hitting back with "Operation Martyr Soleimani". Tensions between US and Iran de-escalated since and now we are back again at same level of 1-2-3 which provided support at $52 thanks also to spreading of coronavirus. Will this level of previous support at 1-2-3 ($52) hold the pressure of this new virus? We don't know. All we know is that next OPEC meeting is scheduled for March 5 but they are trying already to stop the bleeding as this article from Reuters shows. www.reuters.com “Don’t try to catch a falling knife” is sage advice for investors trying to identify the trough in a market like oil following a sharp selloff. The following idea "The Cone" was posted on May 1 and it was structured on a Monthly chart. For additional infos about WTI please refer to the related ideas linked at the end of this post. If you have any questions or comment to add please do not hesitate to post it. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumtances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
1
Expectations for 2020 Caution is required from the thin market perspective also we expect an increased likelihood of volatility explosions on the market. As we turn to 2020, the year promises to be extremely difficult and eventful. Whether this year will be a year of crisis, we will see, actually we would bet on a crisis. In this regard, we expect massive sales on world stock markets, which will be accompanied by an increase in demand for safe-haven assets. So purchases of gold and the Japanese yen in 2020 will continue to remain relevant. "Deal of the Year" for us will be sales in the US stock market. But on this occasion, we have another review, where we describe in as much detail as possible why 2020 should be the year of the collapse of the US stock market (well, or at least, the time for a full correction on it). As for the foreign exchange market, a lot of trades will depend on the actual development of events: what the Fed will want?, whether a full-fledged crisis or recession will occur in the world?, how the elections in the USA will end?, etc. Therefore, for now, we will not make any guesses, but we will note one deal that has, in our opinion, the maximum chances to get profit. It's about buying the British pound. 2020 should be the year when Brexit “ends”. And according to the “soft” scenario. Accordingly, the growth potential of the pound is measured in hundreds of points, and according to our estimates, pared with the dollar, it may well exceed 1.40. That is, from current prices it is about 1000 pips. Another promising trade in the foreign exchange market, the sale of the Russian ruble. Its current strengthening of the ruble should not be intimidating or perplexing. On the contrary, this is just a great opportunity for sales. Yes, probably you will need to hold the position for more than one week or even a month. But we have practically no doubts about its positive outcome. And a few words about oil. Its growth potential due to the new OPEC + deal is not fully exhausted. But in general, we tend to begin to build a medium-term short position, starting the first round of sales already at current prices. Why? the expectation of serious problems in the global economy. Recession or toward recession will be a serious blow to demand in the oil market, which will invariably provoke a drop in quotations. Also, on the supply side, 2020 could be a watershed. Russia is talking about a possible exit from OPEC + due to the need to fight for market share. If this happens, then sales on the oil market can not be avoided. Therefore, those who are ready to be in a position for several months can join us and start selling oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | Energy OverboughtA good time to update the Oil chart after the OPEC desperation leg. Those following the previously posted long-term macro chart will remember the breakout we have been tracking: On the demand side, manufacturing remains sluggish and we are again outguessing signs of the effects on the demand side. Equities wont be able to hold Oil up for too much longer, this is starting to look clearer by the day with only one direction for Oil in the long-term. For the flows I continue to sell rallies, this works nicely as a hedge versus the USD devaluation / reflationary theme for 1H20. A major breakdown here will cause for a reassessment of the USDCAD macro map for 2020. Remember we traded some of the swing highs previously to the tick: Overall, I see the case for meaningful Oil weakness in 2020, but if we get significant USD devaluation - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger Oil risk lies to the downside. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc. Good luck all those selling rallies in Oil.
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
9
Trump Impeachment, infernal sanctions, BoE & BoJUS President Donald Trump has been impeached by the Democratic-led House of Representatives for obstruction of Congress and abuse of power related to his dealings with Ukraine. The votes made Trump only the third president in United States history to be impeached and set the stage for a likely trial in the Republican-led Senate in January. This event has already been included in current prices and moods in the financial markets. Note, the fate of Trump is in the hands of the Senate, and there are 2/3 of the Republicans, so, Trump is not in danger. Nevertheless, we cannot but note that our already strong desire to sell the dollar after such news only intensified. After a volatile market on Tuesday, Wednesday became a respite day. But today there is a possibility of the return of strong movements in pound pairs in the foreign exchange market. It is about the announcement of the results of the Bank of England. Experts expect the parameters of monetary policy in the country to remain unchanged. In general, this will be in line with the current mood of the leading Central banks in the world, which have taken a break and are following the development of events. So, surprises should be expected only from Mark Carney’s comments. Our expectations and a trading plan for today. As the pound sales dwindled yesterday. The markets have calmed down. So you can not be afraid of a crazy panic wave, which will be able to absorb our position beneath. Therefore, today we are returning to the idea of buying a pound both on the intraday and in the medium-term positions. The EU and Johnson’s comments could provoke local outbursts of volatility, and the direction of the price dynamics of the pound will be determined by the nature of information injections. But if you sit and wait for this kind of information, then you can freeze trading activity at all. So do not be afraid of opening the trade - the only restriction taking into account current realities is setting up the stops for each of the trade. Recall that we believe that the pound’s real value is 500, or even 1000 pips more expensive, which means buying is a promising trading idea. Among other trading ideas, we note simply excellent points for the sale of the Russian ruble. The fact is that yesterday the relevant committee of the US Senate approved sanctions against Russia for interfering in the elections. We are talking about the so-called "hellish sanctions." Of course, the bill still needs to be voted on and given to Trump for signature, so it is still a long way from implementation. The fact that the process is in progress cannot but put pressure on the ruble. That is why its current price is a gift that is simply a sin to refuse from. But in order to make this position more balanced, we recommend using oil purchases as a hedge. Actually, the ruble is growing because of oil growth. Even after the announcement of the OPEC + decision to increase production cuts, we recommend buying oil. So far, the dynamics of the asset fully justify this recommendation, which testifies in favour of our correct understanding of the situation. The Bank of Japan has already announced its decision. The expected monetary policy parameters remained unchanged. Therefore we purchase the Japanese yen. Low volatility, coupled with the USDJPY near to the top of the medium-term range, makes the deal quite profitable on the other hand with very limited risks. That is, sales of the USDJPY from 109.60 with stops above 109.90 and minimum profits of about 108.50 (or even 107.30) make the deal extremely interesting.
by Trade24Fx
Time "X" is getting closer, Boris may be celebrating his victoryIn yesterday’s review, we already noted that this week may be decisive for several financial assets, and the global economy as a whole. On December 15, the United States may introduce tariffs on goods from China and thus bring trade wars to a new level. It's entirely up to an agreement between the parties. Even though we have heard positive statements for more than a month, the situation looks more and more menacing day by day. Although the probability of the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the United States and China is quite high, we will continue to look for points to buy safe-haven assets today. This recommendation will remain relevant until the actual conclusion of the contract. Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange market, is getting ready for Johnson's victory in parliamentary elections in the UK. According to recent polls, the Conservative Party will be ahead of the Labor Party by at least 10%. Recall, for Brexit, this means the end of the story - Johnson will be able to present his version of the deal Britain will finally leave the EU with the deal. For the pound, this is a powerful fundamental positive background. In this regard, we continue to recommend the purchase of the pound. It may well grow in the foreseeable future by several hundred pips. Since we are talking about the pound, we note that today will be published statistics on the UK. So you need to act with an eye on the data on GDP, trade balance and industrial production. Speaking of our other trading ideas for today, they are unchanged. Oil purchases still seem like a great idea to us in light of the latest OPEC + decision. Dollar sales are also promising.
by Trade24Fx
1