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Oil Long - Post OPEC Groin KickIn a previous chart 'OIl Rangebound - 45.62-50.37' I targeted a 50.4 upside and assumed that prices may stay ranged in that overall zone; but prices broke above; so my next 'Kitchen Sink' chart looked at 50.4 as a buy level; but prices broke hard back down below. So... I do not think that the upside was a false upthrust, I believe that prices are pivoting the 50.4 level until a larger breakout occurs, which I believe will be to the upside. After much excitement of my last buy level at 50.4 being reached it was soon thwarted by a swift kick in the groin by OPEC and I saw my long entries stopped out. Never makes for a fun day... Based on weekly levels (discussed in the 'Oil - Rangebound' chart, I believe oil was in a 45.6-52.40 range; however during the past 2 weeks prices have seen significant bounces on a weekly level at 45.6 and 48.21 (both major weekly inflections from 2008 and 2015) - I will repost the weekly chart discussing those long term weekly inflections later this weekend. Following yesterday's drop, if prices had remained near the 48.21 level, I would likely have been short minded still looking possibly for the 46-47 level; however, as we saw a significant bounce at the 48.21 level on high volume; I believe that yesterday's ugly drop was just a correction and that weekly markup will continue to the upside. As we have FOMC likely raising interest rates mid-June, I am guessing that prices will remain in sideways consolidation potentially between 49.01-51.60, potentially 52.80 level. The next few week's EIA reports and DX sentiment heading into FOMC will of course have a large impact on these coming swings. Trade Setup: Buy/LongL 49.01-49.65 TP1: 51.25 TP2: 52.40 SL: Still working on this; please reference the Potential Spring zone and lower demand zone I would expect that prices continue up to test the 8/9 MA level and possibly 50.4 level prior to heading back down to the entry zone, we'll see next week. I'm still shaking of last weeks bumps and bruises; and patiently waiting for the next opportunity. Again, I will update this later with the weekly levels used from 2008 and 2015, it is quite interesting to me how significant they still are. Have a great weekend and happy trading next week all!
NYMEX:CLN2017Long
by smitheric1970
6
Possible Short opportunity - riskyThe UK Brent seem to have met some resistance from both a horizontal resistance and resistance from downward channel. T here is a OPEC meeting 25th May to see if they should extent the production cut 9 more months for its members. You should not trade before this meeting , but rather see the development after the meeting. Bullish sentiments: - The members + Russia are all positive to the cut and I expect little to no resistance on this agreement. This will hopefully result reduction in oilstock and push the price higher. - OPEC have said that they will do whatever it takes to get the oil prices back up. Are these points enough? Bearish points/risk: - US is not part of OPEC and have increased their production. This have resulted in a counter to the OPEC agreement and we have not seen the reduction in oilstocks as many of us expected. - Even with the initial OPEC agreement on this production cut, the oil price have not seen the gain most of us expected. It have still been on the 45-55 range. What is so much different this time? So, if they are able to extend the deal, this might not trigger any big movements to the upside. Might be a little move for a day. But I would expect it to revert and stabalize shortly. If there would be some kind of "hiccup" we could see more risk on the downside. Combined with the technical signals, this might be a good SHORT, but trade with caution on this one!
TVC:UKOILShort
by harveytrades
Oil Long - Kitchen Sink ChartI apologize for the messy chart; I'd prefer to publish a cleaner view but have a busy weekend so you'll get a glimpse inside my crazy charting mind with all of my notes... So, just zoom in to the TP area of the charity you're not interested in the rest! A couple of weeks ago I'd anticipated prices staying contained in the 45.6-50.4 daily trading range but last week pressed just above that level without any hints of selling; so I now anticipate that prices will see buying up to solidify 50.4 support through this weeks OPEC meeting; but... anticipate a cap on prices and likely decline with FOMC only a few weeks away and the USD will likely see strength. I'd imagine the fast few weeks volatility will continue for the next few weeks. Trade Entry: Buy/Long 50.47-49.97 SL: 49.50 TP1: 51.60 TP2: 52.40 As always, I advise taking partial profits at the first TP. Good trading all!
NYMEX:CLN2017Long
by smitheric1970
23
NGAS : Short Setup towards $2.50 and belowEnergy is very difficult to trade under present OPEC situation. Yet formation of structure is such that it tends to break down after Zigzag consolidation in form of ABC towards 61.8%. Look for bounce towards 3.2 as wave (2) advancing towards below 3$ in form of wave (3). I believe this completes the cycle by approaching $2.5 in five wave structure. Take your entry wisely with perfect money management. energy trades and OPEC can burn your accounts. Trade your own plan Happy Trading
FX:NGASShort
by robus
Oil: Potential bullish scenarioI think there is a fair chance that oil breaks out, maybe due to fears of war in the Middle East? Maybe due to OPEC extending production cuts, or maybe a bit of both, paired with Trump's comments of wanting a weaker dollar. I think energy positions are a good hold, and even a good chance to add to many, like $OXY, $PBR, $MPC, $PBF, to name a few. Keep an eye out for the breakout here, if it's confirmed, $XLE will shine surely. This would play nicely with Saudi Arabia's Aramco IPO as well, which makes a lot of sense to me. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
6
Long term view on Crude OilHere is a simple look at my long term view on oil, which lines up relatively well with my expectation for the S&P. As you can see, on the weekly chart, it had appears that we had broken out, but we kept retesting that breakout level as support without getting any really solid bounce. Finally, we broke down into the previous trading channel again and went straight for the bottom of that channel. My shorter term view is that we may drop some early this week (4/3/2017) but ultimately we retest the top of that channel once more, now as resistance again, which is around the $53 level. Following this touch, oil should head back down to the bottom of the channel but this time with a clear and heavy break, sending oil quickly to $45. We will likely move slowly down/sideways until mid/late October of 2017 when I expect the speed of the drop to pick up significantly, ultimately breaking down below the previous low and making a new 16 year low below $25, maybe as low as the $22's. This drop is also reasonable from a fundemental perspective given the continued oversupply of oil to the market and the U.S. attempting to gain a bigger share of the oil market with 2017 production expected to increase. The most resent rig count of 662 has basically doubled from a year ago when at the end of April 2016 the rig count was just 332. That coupled with lesser regulations under the Trump administration. In addition, another OPEC cut decision is expected to come as early as July of 2017 but if that falls through, it could be yet another catalyst for lower oil. We are looking for this next drop to be slightly lower than the previous low. After this is accomplished, I expect a new uptrend in oil to begin, leading oil to the mid $70's again.
NYMEX:CL1!
by whitecollartrading
Oil - Demandi have been looking for oil prices in the short term to bottom at the 45.6-46.1 level; This chart is meant to provide Target Prices for my 'Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...' chart; please refer to that chart for more information on my overall view as this chart is intended only as a support chart for price targets. I will buy/open long positions at 46.10 and expect that prices may drop down to the 45.6 level. I will take partial profits at each of the Target Prices shown on the chart and will then look for lower levels to re-add the partial long positions in an effort to stagger as prices rally again. Please refer to the chart below for additional details: Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by smitheric1970
Short term target 46, upsloping trend lineBroke out of uptrend with high volume. CFTC showed specs were long, so there is plenty of room to the downside. Spreads have been weak and option volatility was low before breakout. As it broke to the downside, longs scrambled to protect with an downside puts and panic left option vol to increase by over 6 points. On the downside, i am looking into the trendline around 46ish. I would expect a breather there. if it holds, great, but production in the US is up. Only an agreement between Russia and the OPEc on production cuts could truly turn this around.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by mjhillpp
2
USOIL: 9 week downtrend signal, watch for support belowOil has started a weekly downtrend, which we accurately predicted, monitoring the positioning, sentiment and the spreads in oil against other instruments (energy sector, Canadian dollar, etc). I think we can hold our position for some time, we're short from 53.25. Since we already hit the first 'clone' of the weekly mode range, we could stall here. I'm monitoring it, since we have a few fundamental key levels below price. If these levels don't hold as support, the market will test the next levels below, over and over until it is bid, after finding a floor at levels where OPEC might feel compelled to intervene again. I'm watching both the technicals, and the CoT report data, to determine where to exit the shorts. Good luck if already in, if not, better stand aside and wait to either go long at support, or simply do nothing until oil bottoms again. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILShort
by IvanLabrie
8
Oil weekly/daily, short term buy, long term sell (in comments)After US positive data, China possibly lowering demand and inventories with an Oil flood, the 50-55 range was broken, though these prices under 50 do not really benefit shale producers or OPEC (and therefore could not be 100% sustainable if demand doesn't decrease further), we could have a longer dip to $46 (watch weekly chart I will share) and then maybe a recovery. Fundamentals are as volatile as the market so hardly any prediction can be too exact right now.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn620061
2