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Opec

OPEC and Seasonals - SellMarket normally goes into backwardation in FFAs after new years and shipping volumes falls when refineries go into maintenance and cut their crude processing demand. This year, in particular, it should fall even more given the cuts being implemented as per media in the last couple of days. A hot tip to follow the fixtures done is to download VLCC Fixtures (iPhone) from Frontlines own chartering department which provides and overview of cargos/ships/last done. Furthermore, bunker fuel is representative of a large freight cost component which also follows oil upwards and thus is currently putting earnings pressure on all shipping companies. Hence to conclude within jan-feb 2017 this stock should fall to its lows due to OPEC cuts, cost explosion in bunker and seasonal maintenance of refineries, thus the anti-trade of oil short term.
OSL:FROShort
by volsupply
Short OilContinued idea from previous. 1 - The current trendline looks to be tested within the next few days, look for a bounce (long), or a break (add short). 2 - This red horizontal bar is around the $52 area (key transition area), it broke today, and closing below it over the next few days will be a good sign for shorts. 3 - Most big players got out December 30th, which points toward this level being a top for the time being. 4 - Today's drop was based on low volume, therefore we must be careful over the next few days. However, due to the large selling on December 20th, this may be all the volume necessary to truly break $52. Look for a weekly close below this level for a longer-term bear. 5 - RSI broke trend. This points towards an RSI heading towards oversold, with the price following.
FX:USOILShort
by GeorgeJimas
7
Oil - Higher Weekly Low?Amidst the OPEC agreements, Trump's inauguration which will likely increase for oil demand and production and the January typical decline in demand, I am still of mind that prices will find higher prices in the first, maybe second quarter of 2017 but will first seek to secure a higher weekly low support price. I have been looking for a retrace to the 48.36 level, bottom of the upper weekly range; however think it's very possible we also see a retest of the upper .25 of the lower weekly range at approximately 45.9-46.4 level (which has been a strong weekly inflection since April) after which I believe oil prices will continue their rally into mid April at the 56-58 level. I am currently short and if prices do in fact test the 48.4 level I think a quick swing back up to the 52.4-53 level is likely. I am not including a specific strategy here as this is intended to point out potential strong pivot levels. Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!
by smitheric1970
1
Get ready for OPEC Meeting Oil futures jumped on Monday after heavy falls in the previous session, reflecting volatility as OPEC officials try to salvage a deal to cut crude production ahead of a long-anticipated formal meeting of the group’s ministers on Wednesday. The 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced a preliminary deal in September to cut oil output to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day (bpd) from a record 33.64 million bpd now, to bolster perennially low prices. Although doubts existed over whether the organization, including regional foes Saudi Arabia and Iran, could agree on the mechanism of a cut, many market watchers believed last week a deal would be struck if only to save the group’s credibility. But the chances of an agreement declined over the weekend after Saudi Arabia said oil markets would balance next year even without an OPEC deal and a meeting with non-OPEC producers such as Russia was canceled, sparking shuttle diplomacy to smooth differences before Wednesday’s Vienna gathering. Analysts’ forecasts for oil prices now vary widely. With a realistic but significant deal struck, prices could reach $60 a barrel, according to the most optimistic forecast, or barely approach $50, according to the most bearish prediction. Should OPEC fail to strike a deal, prices may briefly fall to the low $40s but return to current levels, according to the most bullish forecast, or slide downwards to $40, opening the door to $30 a barrel, according to other predictions. CURRENTLY NOT HOLDING ANY POSITIONS BUT LOOKING FOR
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by iBrokers
2
USDCAD: Uptrend in motion, potential targetsUSDCAD might start tracing a continuation of the intermediate term uptrend here. Targets are on chart, both time and price matter here. I estimate to see a strong rally, followed by a correction, until there's enough time chopping around, needed to make the late comers give up, to eventually resume the rally, maybe once or twice before hitting the targets. If you bought gradually with me, or bought before FOMC today, you can hold with break even stop at your average entry price, and simply wait for price to approach the bullish targets on chart. My preferred approach is to monitor the trade, to trail stops and add gradually, and reenter if trailed out, once the eventual pullbacks appear to end. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Crude Oil - Market DirectionWith being sure Oil was going to continue its way down on price, OPEC hit us with a curve and decided to change things up... Announcing the decrease in production by 1.3 million barrels a day, we have seen the price for Crude and Brent Oil skyrocket. Now, we have price hitting a heavy resistance level... Will this recent chance in oil production be enough to break this price level this week? Only time will tell... Please feel free to comment your ideas below. vv
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by cdschultheis15
CLF2017: Oil futures updateWe have closed half higher, near the high of the day, and now stop is at entry price. It might take a while to proceed higher, so there is no rush, simply hold the position for the time being. If you want, you can short calls against it until January but you would defeat any possible upside to come. I did reccomend shorting call options for the $OXY trade though, and here we just close half for now. We need to see how price action evolves from here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CLF2017Long
by IvanLabrie
Texas Tea - A Comedic (2 Week) Oil JourneyOil Analysis with a comedic twist... As OPEC has been flashing 'somewhat' positive tweets regarding a deal to cut/freeze production; we have seen quite the rally in oil prices; Friday marked prices closing on a weekly AND monthly basis higher than the past 14 months of weekly closing/breakdown levels. However, this analysis is based on the possibility of oil falling after's OPEC's meeting on Saturday December 10th - after potentially another positive outcome. Why? Because it is immediately followed by the upcoming FOMC rate hike decision dates Dec 13/14 and after all is said and done, the DX (US Dollar) is the king of WTI. I believe that prices will revisit their July 2015 range briefly prior to testing support near the midpoint of the 45.62-50.37 long term trading range. This is only one possibility of many; but the theme here is oil prices climbing into the 50-50.2 daily range outlined onto chart and then falling into the FOMC meeting finding buying support at the 48.37-49.2 level (details on chart) Oil Manipulation = Prices falling after OPEC finally pretends they're buds; because lets face it... The large money movers think that speculators deserve to be crushed and right after OPEC does the happy dance, the USD will likely kick oil right in the groin and bring it to its knees. My Inspirational Clarity in preparing for the volatile weeks to come: www.youtube.com USD training for post OPEC happy dance: www.youtube.com OPEC smiling and shaking hands: www.youtube.com Hope you enjoyed and found some usefulness in the serious parts; Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!
by smitheric1970
10
Stars allign for an IAG SHORT! Fundamentally, Airlines are having a tough ride & it doesn't look like its going to stop anytime soon. The fragmented industry has failed to provide any consistent returns for the last 10 years (EBIT margins have averaged just over 1.2%!!), Full service airlines specifically have been struggling - not only due to the exogenous demand factors then rely on (Eurozone GDP), but also as they have been forced to cut previously revenue generating activities such as offering on board amenities in order to compete on price with low cost carriers. IAG are currently making a loss on their operations with costs spiralling out of control. Labour disputes have further added to their headache as heavy unionisation prevents them cutting staff! Been looking for a short entry for just over a month, and with the OPEC decision yesterday (Oil accounts for 34% of operating costs!!), aswell as a rejection of the 450 level completing a long term head and shoulders pattern - looking to get short as soon as 420 price is broken to the downside. Entry - 415 SL - 460 First Target - 360 Second Target - 320
LSE:IAGShort
by jakeostrovskis
1
USOIL: Hold longs!USOIL is tracing a daily uptrend, and broke above the recent downtrend's linear regression channel. If we hold the current uptrend pace, we can expect the top key level resistances to be hit in a day or two. I'd assume we'll stall while holding support above the monthly downtrend mode in blue, so, I'll be monitoring the uptrend progress to add to it if viable, and to time our exit. I think it's possible we get an OPEC production cut agreement, which could squeeze most shorts, who don't believe it is possible, and the overall bearish retail traders. Trump could play out as a wild card here as well, so it's worth it to keep some long exposure to energy, oil and gas in particular. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19