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Opec

EURUSD: Wait for Draghi's speech and maybe for the daily closeWe should be seeing a turn in the Euro very soon. I'm already long with a wider stop and looking to add to longs. I advise caution today, the market is awaiting Draghi later today. We're overbought in 4h, and RgMov shows bearish sentiment in this timeframe (contrary to daily and weekly bullishness), so a new low could trigger selling in the short term. What I'd like to see would be new lows tripping 'All stops known to man' after the news and a quick reversal, closing the day near the highs. This would give the perfect excuse to enter longs on a new daily high after today's close, and tightening my initial position's stop, reaching a full position, long the Euro. If not, another positive outcome would be a rapid rally causing today's price range from the open to be bigger than Friday's true range, giving us an excuse to buy dips and/or new highs above the previous 3 days' range. Let's keep our eyes on this now. Right now, there's a bullish signal in the daily with new highs, but the news are a huge risk, if we were to trade with tighter stop losses. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
UCO: We bought yesterday's closeThis is potentially a very good trade, for the time being, we can expect it to retest the top of the range. If you didn't buy with me and my clients yesterday at the close, you can buy here, risking a new low under the recent lowest low. Target is at least a retest of the previous rally's top, but it could evolve into resuming the longer term 'Time at mode' uptrend signal in the oil chart. In the case of $UCO, it could rally to 21.19. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:UCOLong
by IvanLabrie
2
Long OIL into OPEC (Nov 30th) (Daily)If OIL trends the way i think it will, it'll be a coincidence in regards to the OPEC meet at the end of November. I just want to get that part cleared. :P Short term speaking we're looking close to a bottom here at these levels. RSI divergence, 3 wave correction, and possible MACD crossover all signal buy right now. It will be interesting to see how Sunday night plays out, but I'll be looking at starting a 1/5 position at around the 42.60-80 area either Monday or Tuesday. If for some reason OIL gaps up or runs before open, I'll look at a close above 44.90 to enter. If OIL falls bellow (and closes bellow) 42, this chart is scrap. GL
TVC:USOILLong
by xsubtownerx
2
Crude Rebounds, But All Is Not WellThe relief rally across risk assets is welcomed. Yes, welcomed. The greatest thing about rallies such as this, is that they help alieviate technically oversold (or overbought - check out our gold call !) conditions. Crude oil is no different. From a technical standpoint, crude fell over 15 percent in short order since we pointed out the strong supply zone on 10/28. Price action z-score was within 1.75 and 2, as well as showing a sell on the stochastic indicator. Fundamentally, we knew that a OPEC resolution for the ongoing production glut was unlikely to occur (as the last several times failed to produce anything material.) It's also important to note that the oil cartel deliberately chooses to float production cut or freeze rumors when crude position is the most short, which creates short-covering and an artificial bounce to the upside. Saudi Arabia has been effectively managing crude prices without actually having to cut. To be frank, OPEC has gotten traders to salivate to cut rumors like Pavlov's dog to a bell all while ramping production near all-time highs. It was insult to injury as U.S. producers managed to hit 34-year highs in weekly production with a print over 14 m/bbl. We expect some upside movement since the commitment of traders report (5-year positioning percentile) showed a swift decline in net-long. Expect traders to pile back in only for the cycle to repeat itself. Resistance can be found at $45.55 and $46.95. Deeper resistance at $47.60. If you want to learn more follow @Macro_View on TWTR and go to macroview.co to get on our waiting list to subscribe!
NYMEX:CL1!
by MacroView_Research
1
December 2017 Oil: Interesting time/price target spottedI'm looking to go long the December 2017 contract if we hit the target specified on chart. I'm not detailing the money management or the trade plan here, I reserve that to my clients, but we could certainly see a bounce very soon, but we need a flush of weak longs to achieve sufficient negative sentiment for a bottom. I was expecting a faster rally, but that thesis changed when we dropped under the short term uptrend speed line, creating a failure in the daily uptrend, which prompts me to think price will go down until we hit the target on chart, then reversing course and resuming the long term uptrend, eventually reaching the targets on chart. Keep an eye on this chart, you will soon get a low risk long opportunity if you're vigilant. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CLZ2017Long
by IvanLabrie
2
Oil hates uncertainty1 month ago today, OPEC unofficially decided that they would cut production by 32.5-33m br/day. That announcement sent oil into gains frenzy skyrocketing it to almost $52/barrel. That unofficial statement was not enough to make oil break the resistance and reach the expected price of $60/barrel. Now during the OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Vienna in Friday and Saturday things took a very different turn than hoped. Starting with the OPEC meeting on Friday, the members failed to come to a conclusion and cut production with the biggest opposer being Iraq. Saturday, leaks hint towards a non-conclusive meeting as well. This leads me to expect further movement south for oil over the next weekend. TP for me is $47. Still, I think no production cut could mean that oil tumbles more and thus I will be trading oil over the next month until their next meeting ONLY if it manages to break below the $47-46.8 area with relatively high volume and if indicators favour a short play.
TVC:USOILShort
by BigCharts
2
FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT?Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to be welcomed by Iran/ Russia et al. who have recently been able to offer their produce to the market As above It only takes one party out of the 10/20 opec members for the whole agreement to fall through, a cartel does not work unless ALL parties agree since failiure to do so causes economic inequities which void business logic otherwise. - thus this trade is a bet that one or more members will indeed fail to agree and thus void the output cut deal. 3. Fundamentally also being short here makes some sense since it is around 50-60USD that USD shales producers are able to enter the market thus prices above 50 incur a level of natural supply which acts as a price smoother. Furthermore the oil rally from 40-50 was purely based on an OPEC cut. Fair equilibrium for oil is in the region of 40-45USD imo. Not to mention Fed hike risk and the USD topside are all welcomed downside drivers. 4. Technically oil at 50usd is at some good resistance, whilst oil vol is at yearly lows. Vol is likely to pick up as negotiations heat up, this may also see oil trader better on the offer. 5. Lets not also forget that the main reason opec flooded the oil market back in 2014 was in order to maintain their dominant position and prevent US shale. Thus it is even more questionable the legitimacy of this agreement (thus making it even more unlikely imo). Trading strategy - short WTI Oil at 50usd or on rallies above: 1. Short oil above 50 running a 2:1 risk profile. 44TP is advised from a support perspective and stops could be placed at 52 just above cycle highs for 3:1 or more tactical positions at 53 for 2:1. 2. FX players may instead opt to trade $CAD. Entries here should look for above 1.34 with 200pips TP and 100pips of risk. This is perhaps a better way to express a FED hike view and dollar bid sentiment. Coupled with poor Loonie macro.
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT? Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to be welcomed by Iran/ Russia et al. who have recently been able to offer their produce to the market As above It only takes one party out of the 10/20 opec members for the whole agreement to fall through, a cartel does not work unless ALL parties agree since failiure to do so causes economic inequities which void business logic otherwise. - thus this trade is a bet that one or more members will indeed fail to agree and thus void the output cut deal. 3. Fundamentally also being short here makes some sense since it is around 50-60USD that USD shales producers are able to enter the market thus prices above 50 incur a level of natural supply which acts as a price smoother. Furthermore the oil rally from 40-50 was purely based on an OPEC cut. Fair equilibrium for oil is in the region of 40-45USD imo. Not to mention Fed hike risk and the USD topside are all welcomed downside drivers. 4. Technically oil at 50usd is at some good resistance, whilst oil vol is at yearly lows. Vol is likely to pick up as negotiations heat up, this may also see oil trader better on the offer. 5. Lets not also forget that the main reason opec flooded the oil market back in 2014 was in order to maintain their dominant position and prevent US shale. Thus it is even more questionable the legitimacy of this agreement (thus making it even more unlikely imo). Trading strategy - short WTI Oil at 50usd or on rallies above: 1. Short oil above 50 running a 2:1 risk profile. 44TP is advised from a support perspective and stops could be placed at 52 just above cycle highs for 3:1 or more tactical positions at 53 for 2:1. 2. FX players may instead opt to trade $CAD. Entries here should look for above 1.34 with 200pips TP and 100pips of risk. This is perhaps a better way to express a FED hike view and dollar bid sentiment. Coupled with poor Loonie macro.
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
Crude target of 52 almost achievedCrude is nearing the target of 52 after the breakout of the triangle after the OPEC meeting a couple weeks ago. RSI and Stochastik are now very much overbought and even generated some sell signals. Also, as of now, there is a divergence in stochastik and RSI indicating the market is due for a correction sideways or lower. Without any fundamental news a correction is imminent. However this correction might well be sideways. Overall physical trading volume has slowed according to my sources after the panic buying spree shortly following the OPEC meeting. Overall we are in an uptrend, and I would expect we ll at least test the highs made earlier this year around 52. Some light call spread selling might be good, but IMHO being conservative is the right play. No buying of downside options as that premium will just decay.
TVC:USOIL
by mjhillpp
USOIL: Short term updateUSOIL has filled our limit buys to take a short term long position, while we hold our weekly buys, and the add on we took recently. We have a validation target that needs to be hit within the next 2 days now. Tomorrow and until Friday, we have very data and news heavy days, so we can expect a sizeable move here, maybe even a make or break moment for this uptrend. If we respect the validation target, we can safely hold longs, if not we'll have to study price action closely, since we might embark in a correction in oil's uptrend. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
Commodities portfolio: USOIL - Buy market, buy dips, buy slowlyOil has a great 'Time at mode' signal, and similarly to Gold, it seems to be operating in the 8-day timeframe. After the OPEC news, we took a long position in the 45.60 region, which we're still holding with my clients. I reccomended closing half of the trade before Friday's session, and we have stops at entry price on it now. After the production cut news, price rallied strongly and confirmed the uptrend you see here, giving us two potential targets, at 60.77 and 81.73. Additionally, we took a buy at the close on Friday. I'll continue to add to the position and also trade around it. I'd like to see price hit the 48.10 level you see here, to add more, but it might not happen, so if you're not long, you may enter at market open with a partial risk position. Use a stop under 46.17 for all entries. We can maneuver this uptrend from the daily chart as well, taking shorter term swing trades on each pullback, while the rally progresses -I give my signals clients trades like these all the time, like in NGAS-. Consider this forecast has time until January 2017, as long as we don't drop back under 46.17. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
USOIL: Weekly uptrend signal pending confirmationIf we see oil hit the 47.99 handle before the close on Friday, we can expect a sizeable rally to take place. If we do break above the monthly resistance above, validating this signal, the targets are, in order of probability: 58.21, 65.63 and 80.67. Right now, this would appear like a mad man's delusion, but, it's what the chart shows as logical, and probable if all trade parameters are followed. The next step, if you took the long when I called it, is to let the trade run, for the next two weeks, examining activity to validate the uptrend, or discard it. Stay tuned for updates, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19