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Opec

December 2017 Oil: Interesting time/price target spottedI'm looking to go long the December 2017 contract if we hit the target specified on chart. I'm not detailing the money management or the trade plan here, I reserve that to my clients, but we could certainly see a bounce very soon, but we need a flush of weak longs to achieve sufficient negative sentiment for a bottom. I was expecting a faster rally, but that thesis changed when we dropped under the short term uptrend speed line, creating a failure in the daily uptrend, which prompts me to think price will go down until we hit the target on chart, then reversing course and resuming the long term uptrend, eventually reaching the targets on chart. Keep an eye on this chart, you will soon get a low risk long opportunity if you're vigilant. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CLZ2017Long
by IvanLabrie
2
Oil hates uncertainty1 month ago today, OPEC unofficially decided that they would cut production by 32.5-33m br/day. That announcement sent oil into gains frenzy skyrocketing it to almost $52/barrel. That unofficial statement was not enough to make oil break the resistance and reach the expected price of $60/barrel. Now during the OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Vienna in Friday and Saturday things took a very different turn than hoped. Starting with the OPEC meeting on Friday, the members failed to come to a conclusion and cut production with the biggest opposer being Iraq. Saturday, leaks hint towards a non-conclusive meeting as well. This leads me to expect further movement south for oil over the next weekend. TP for me is $47. Still, I think no production cut could mean that oil tumbles more and thus I will be trading oil over the next month until their next meeting ONLY if it manages to break below the $47-46.8 area with relatively high volume and if indicators favour a short play.
TVC:USOILShort
by BigCharts
2
FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT?Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to be welcomed by Iran/ Russia et al. who have recently been able to offer their produce to the market As above It only takes one party out of the 10/20 opec members for the whole agreement to fall through, a cartel does not work unless ALL parties agree since failiure to do so causes economic inequities which void business logic otherwise. - thus this trade is a bet that one or more members will indeed fail to agree and thus void the output cut deal. 3. Fundamentally also being short here makes some sense since it is around 50-60USD that USD shales producers are able to enter the market thus prices above 50 incur a level of natural supply which acts as a price smoother. Furthermore the oil rally from 40-50 was purely based on an OPEC cut. Fair equilibrium for oil is in the region of 40-45USD imo. Not to mention Fed hike risk and the USD topside are all welcomed downside drivers. 4. Technically oil at 50usd is at some good resistance, whilst oil vol is at yearly lows. Vol is likely to pick up as negotiations heat up, this may also see oil trader better on the offer. 5. Lets not also forget that the main reason opec flooded the oil market back in 2014 was in order to maintain their dominant position and prevent US shale. Thus it is even more questionable the legitimacy of this agreement (thus making it even more unlikely imo). Trading strategy - short WTI Oil at 50usd or on rallies above: 1. Short oil above 50 running a 2:1 risk profile. 44TP is advised from a support perspective and stops could be placed at 52 just above cycle highs for 3:1 or more tactical positions at 53 for 2:1. 2. FX players may instead opt to trade $CAD. Entries here should look for above 1.34 with 200pips TP and 100pips of risk. This is perhaps a better way to express a FED hike view and dollar bid sentiment. Coupled with poor Loonie macro.
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
FADE OIL & BUY USDCAD - OPEC TO CUT OR TO NOT? Opec to cut or not to cut? * I trade Oil seldomly however this binary position caught my attention.* 1.This trade derives from my view regarding cartels - a view which follows the logic that they only work when the cartel makes an arrangement that is beneficial to all parties, wholly from a profit perspective. 2. Formal action of Reducing output is unlikely to be welcomed by Iran/ Russia et al. who have recently been able to offer their produce to the market As above It only takes one party out of the 10/20 opec members for the whole agreement to fall through, a cartel does not work unless ALL parties agree since failiure to do so causes economic inequities which void business logic otherwise. - thus this trade is a bet that one or more members will indeed fail to agree and thus void the output cut deal. 3. Fundamentally also being short here makes some sense since it is around 50-60USD that USD shales producers are able to enter the market thus prices above 50 incur a level of natural supply which acts as a price smoother. Furthermore the oil rally from 40-50 was purely based on an OPEC cut. Fair equilibrium for oil is in the region of 40-45USD imo. Not to mention Fed hike risk and the USD topside are all welcomed downside drivers. 4. Technically oil at 50usd is at some good resistance, whilst oil vol is at yearly lows. Vol is likely to pick up as negotiations heat up, this may also see oil trader better on the offer. 5. Lets not also forget that the main reason opec flooded the oil market back in 2014 was in order to maintain their dominant position and prevent US shale. Thus it is even more questionable the legitimacy of this agreement (thus making it even more unlikely imo). Trading strategy - short WTI Oil at 50usd or on rallies above: 1. Short oil above 50 running a 2:1 risk profile. 44TP is advised from a support perspective and stops could be placed at 52 just above cycle highs for 3:1 or more tactical positions at 53 for 2:1. 2. FX players may instead opt to trade $CAD. Entries here should look for above 1.34 with 200pips TP and 100pips of risk. This is perhaps a better way to express a FED hike view and dollar bid sentiment. Coupled with poor Loonie macro.
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
Crude target of 52 almost achievedCrude is nearing the target of 52 after the breakout of the triangle after the OPEC meeting a couple weeks ago. RSI and Stochastik are now very much overbought and even generated some sell signals. Also, as of now, there is a divergence in stochastik and RSI indicating the market is due for a correction sideways or lower. Without any fundamental news a correction is imminent. However this correction might well be sideways. Overall physical trading volume has slowed according to my sources after the panic buying spree shortly following the OPEC meeting. Overall we are in an uptrend, and I would expect we ll at least test the highs made earlier this year around 52. Some light call spread selling might be good, but IMHO being conservative is the right play. No buying of downside options as that premium will just decay.
TVC:USOIL
by mjhillpp
USOIL: Short term updateUSOIL has filled our limit buys to take a short term long position, while we hold our weekly buys, and the add on we took recently. We have a validation target that needs to be hit within the next 2 days now. Tomorrow and until Friday, we have very data and news heavy days, so we can expect a sizeable move here, maybe even a make or break moment for this uptrend. If we respect the validation target, we can safely hold longs, if not we'll have to study price action closely, since we might embark in a correction in oil's uptrend. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
Commodities portfolio: USOIL - Buy market, buy dips, buy slowlyOil has a great 'Time at mode' signal, and similarly to Gold, it seems to be operating in the 8-day timeframe. After the OPEC news, we took a long position in the 45.60 region, which we're still holding with my clients. I reccomended closing half of the trade before Friday's session, and we have stops at entry price on it now. After the production cut news, price rallied strongly and confirmed the uptrend you see here, giving us two potential targets, at 60.77 and 81.73. Additionally, we took a buy at the close on Friday. I'll continue to add to the position and also trade around it. I'd like to see price hit the 48.10 level you see here, to add more, but it might not happen, so if you're not long, you may enter at market open with a partial risk position. Use a stop under 46.17 for all entries. We can maneuver this uptrend from the daily chart as well, taking shorter term swing trades on each pullback, while the rally progresses -I give my signals clients trades like these all the time, like in NGAS-. Consider this forecast has time until January 2017, as long as we don't drop back under 46.17. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
USOIL: Weekly uptrend signal pending confirmationIf we see oil hit the 47.99 handle before the close on Friday, we can expect a sizeable rally to take place. If we do break above the monthly resistance above, validating this signal, the targets are, in order of probability: 58.21, 65.63 and 80.67. Right now, this would appear like a mad man's delusion, but, it's what the chart shows as logical, and probable if all trade parameters are followed. The next step, if you took the long when I called it, is to let the trade run, for the next two weeks, examining activity to validate the uptrend, or discard it. Stay tuned for updates, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
Possible price action following surprize oil draw pre OPEC meetThe -6M draw on Wednesday took many by surprise, and sounds like oil is being moved around rather than being used up. The price action following the news was subdued, as if there is no enthusiasm for what would have been very bullish news under normal circumstances, given the Fed didn't hike and DXY took a steep fall. OPEC side meeting in Algiers is on Wed 28th, with further rumors that it could be a full blown meeting. That in itself suggests that there is very little possibility of agreement. If you can't organize a meeting, what chance is there of organizing a freeze, or what they really need, a production cut. Do opec really want higher prices, or are they satisfied to be putting further pressure on small US shale producers. If the oil majors want a piece of the shale pie, lower prices might suit them as well, especially if they are well hedged. On 28th expect big price moves. Move to the upside not guaranteed IMHO.
TVC:USOILShort
by TreeDoc
SPX: Short term updateWe have to keep in mind that next week we have OPEC's meeting on the 27th, and factor in that by Friday 30th, the weekly uptrend time expires, and we could expect a loss of bullish momentum, and a return to 2052.40. I think this is a lower probability occurrence, and will look to long and reasess as we go forward. Like I explain in my $SPY chart in related ideas, we have longer term signals that might pan out, and a possible short squeeze propelling us higher, so I remain bullish in the short term while we don't dip under 2133.6 here. Buying now, or buying dips to 2149.1 will remain my favored strategy for $SPX. Meanwhile I intend to hold my other longer term positions, in case the October close confirms the 2-month uptrend target of 2516. There's a chance oil breaks out into an uptrend too, but it's a lower probability event, so also factor that in. (See chart in comments) If we do break out and rally, coming back to test the levels on chart would give an actionable level to buy against as well. So, mark these on your charts: 2164.6 2136.3 2108.1 Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
USOIL & UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTSGlobal demand growth revised lower is downside pressure for oil and more bad news for the commodity.. Short cad or oil are firm proxies to play this. 44.7 next target lower before 43.6. Weve seen oil move 2% lower on the day already on the back of the news, more downside today may struggle but I wouldnt be surprised. Fed/ weak dollar may hinder further downside moves so engaging short on rallies is perhaps more prudent that broad shorts.. especially in this very choppy oil market. IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT: -Global Oil Demand Growth Is Slowing At A Faster Pace Than Initially Predicted. For 2016, A Gain Of 1.3 Mb/D Is Expected -World Oil Supplies Fell By 0.3 Mb/D In August, Dragged Lower By Non-OPEC -OPEC Crude Production Edged Up To 33.47 Mb/D In August - Testing Record Rates As Middle East Producers Opened The Taps -Anaemic Outlook For Refining Throughput Extends Further Amid Downward Revisions To Our 2H16 Forecast -OECD Total Inventories Built By 32.5 Mb In July To A Fresh Record Of 3 111 Mb -Expects First Quarterly Crude Stock Draw In More Than Two Years
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
UWTI headed to $28-30 in a week if dollar doesnt strenghten muchToday's oil stockpiles report is bullish and possibly will have positive effect on the oil price. Not really sure what caused such a draw in the supplies, but looks good. OPEC talks this month also will affect the price positively if we see some good headings. Taking these in consideration $50 oil is not so far away, so is the $UWTI price of $30. Now the bad - USD is looking to strengthen, OPEC may not deliver with talks and we might go back to $43-44 oil.
ULong
by baxds
Summer is over.. But the gas tank is still full. This trade Idea is a transfer of our open short from prior published idea. Summer is over so it's time to track our action on our daily chart. The old charts remain available but get too busy with notes. Our transferred short was entered over the last two months at an average of $47.10. Its clear that this summers consumption has done little to reduce available oil. The US is importing oil at record amounts... Not to use, but to store. Storage and pipeline services are booming. There are massive physical hedges going on oil, this requires longterm capital. Not something to store oil in just out behind the barn. This storage needs utilization for years... Not just a few quarters. Our target still remains WTI @ 38 by the end of the year. We have now seen oil leave the only active up channel.. I had not expected it to drop outside of the latest micro channel (after drop to 45.5). I do not anticipate a newer, steeper micro channel to form... but will watch for it. More likely it will increase in volatility until the (no change) opec meeting is over on 27th. Until then lots of opportunities for day traders as long as they go with Trend & Fundamentals. Out swing-trade timeline lets us go outside .. But we will add to our shorts on spikes when they warrant. For now we are holding short.
FX:USOILShort
by BigEz
Will Putin's Intervention Rally Oil? Watch 46.00 For CluesAccording to a new Bloomberg interview Mr Putin is pushing for OPEC and Iran to halt oil supply in order to rally prices above $50 a barrel. The measure of success will be a close above $46.00 as it was breakout above this level that previously took oil above $50.00. Given the nature of oil any major exporter announcing they want to cut supply should provoke a short term rally and 46.00 is in view given Friday's close failed to break the 61.80% fib level. A sell trade is still on the cards with price failing to close above 44.64 where we have prior structure so now it's a matter of waiting for exhausted candles at this level or if we see a spike upwards from Mr Putin's words.
FX:USOIL
by Elliot_Myers
2