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Opec

Crude target of 52 almost achievedCrude is nearing the target of 52 after the breakout of the triangle after the OPEC meeting a couple weeks ago. RSI and Stochastik are now very much overbought and even generated some sell signals. Also, as of now, there is a divergence in stochastik and RSI indicating the market is due for a correction sideways or lower. Without any fundamental news a correction is imminent. However this correction might well be sideways. Overall physical trading volume has slowed according to my sources after the panic buying spree shortly following the OPEC meeting. Overall we are in an uptrend, and I would expect we ll at least test the highs made earlier this year around 52. Some light call spread selling might be good, but IMHO being conservative is the right play. No buying of downside options as that premium will just decay.
TVC:USOIL
by mjhillpp
USOIL: Short term updateUSOIL has filled our limit buys to take a short term long position, while we hold our weekly buys, and the add on we took recently. We have a validation target that needs to be hit within the next 2 days now. Tomorrow and until Friday, we have very data and news heavy days, so we can expect a sizeable move here, maybe even a make or break moment for this uptrend. If we respect the validation target, we can safely hold longs, if not we'll have to study price action closely, since we might embark in a correction in oil's uptrend. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
Commodities portfolio: USOIL - Buy market, buy dips, buy slowlyOil has a great 'Time at mode' signal, and similarly to Gold, it seems to be operating in the 8-day timeframe. After the OPEC news, we took a long position in the 45.60 region, which we're still holding with my clients. I reccomended closing half of the trade before Friday's session, and we have stops at entry price on it now. After the production cut news, price rallied strongly and confirmed the uptrend you see here, giving us two potential targets, at 60.77 and 81.73. Additionally, we took a buy at the close on Friday. I'll continue to add to the position and also trade around it. I'd like to see price hit the 48.10 level you see here, to add more, but it might not happen, so if you're not long, you may enter at market open with a partial risk position. Use a stop under 46.17 for all entries. We can maneuver this uptrend from the daily chart as well, taking shorter term swing trades on each pullback, while the rally progresses -I give my signals clients trades like these all the time, like in NGAS-. Consider this forecast has time until January 2017, as long as we don't drop back under 46.17. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
USOIL: Weekly uptrend signal pending confirmationIf we see oil hit the 47.99 handle before the close on Friday, we can expect a sizeable rally to take place. If we do break above the monthly resistance above, validating this signal, the targets are, in order of probability: 58.21, 65.63 and 80.67. Right now, this would appear like a mad man's delusion, but, it's what the chart shows as logical, and probable if all trade parameters are followed. The next step, if you took the long when I called it, is to let the trade run, for the next two weeks, examining activity to validate the uptrend, or discard it. Stay tuned for updates, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
Possible price action following surprize oil draw pre OPEC meetThe -6M draw on Wednesday took many by surprise, and sounds like oil is being moved around rather than being used up. The price action following the news was subdued, as if there is no enthusiasm for what would have been very bullish news under normal circumstances, given the Fed didn't hike and DXY took a steep fall. OPEC side meeting in Algiers is on Wed 28th, with further rumors that it could be a full blown meeting. That in itself suggests that there is very little possibility of agreement. If you can't organize a meeting, what chance is there of organizing a freeze, or what they really need, a production cut. Do opec really want higher prices, or are they satisfied to be putting further pressure on small US shale producers. If the oil majors want a piece of the shale pie, lower prices might suit them as well, especially if they are well hedged. On 28th expect big price moves. Move to the upside not guaranteed IMHO.
TVC:USOILShort
by TreeDoc
SPX: Short term updateWe have to keep in mind that next week we have OPEC's meeting on the 27th, and factor in that by Friday 30th, the weekly uptrend time expires, and we could expect a loss of bullish momentum, and a return to 2052.40. I think this is a lower probability occurrence, and will look to long and reasess as we go forward. Like I explain in my $SPY chart in related ideas, we have longer term signals that might pan out, and a possible short squeeze propelling us higher, so I remain bullish in the short term while we don't dip under 2133.6 here. Buying now, or buying dips to 2149.1 will remain my favored strategy for $SPX. Meanwhile I intend to hold my other longer term positions, in case the October close confirms the 2-month uptrend target of 2516. There's a chance oil breaks out into an uptrend too, but it's a lower probability event, so also factor that in. (See chart in comments) If we do break out and rally, coming back to test the levels on chart would give an actionable level to buy against as well. So, mark these on your charts: 2164.6 2136.3 2108.1 Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
USOIL & UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT HIGHLIGHTSGlobal demand growth revised lower is downside pressure for oil and more bad news for the commodity.. Short cad or oil are firm proxies to play this. 44.7 next target lower before 43.6. Weve seen oil move 2% lower on the day already on the back of the news, more downside today may struggle but I wouldnt be surprised. Fed/ weak dollar may hinder further downside moves so engaging short on rallies is perhaps more prudent that broad shorts.. especially in this very choppy oil market. IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REPORT: -Global Oil Demand Growth Is Slowing At A Faster Pace Than Initially Predicted. For 2016, A Gain Of 1.3 Mb/D Is Expected -World Oil Supplies Fell By 0.3 Mb/D In August, Dragged Lower By Non-OPEC -OPEC Crude Production Edged Up To 33.47 Mb/D In August - Testing Record Rates As Middle East Producers Opened The Taps -Anaemic Outlook For Refining Throughput Extends Further Amid Downward Revisions To Our 2H16 Forecast -OECD Total Inventories Built By 32.5 Mb In July To A Fresh Record Of 3 111 Mb -Expects First Quarterly Crude Stock Draw In More Than Two Years
TVC:USOILShort
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
UWTI headed to $28-30 in a week if dollar doesnt strenghten muchToday's oil stockpiles report is bullish and possibly will have positive effect on the oil price. Not really sure what caused such a draw in the supplies, but looks good. OPEC talks this month also will affect the price positively if we see some good headings. Taking these in consideration $50 oil is not so far away, so is the $UWTI price of $30. Now the bad - USD is looking to strengthen, OPEC may not deliver with talks and we might go back to $43-44 oil.
ULong
by baxds
Summer is over.. But the gas tank is still full. This trade Idea is a transfer of our open short from prior published idea. Summer is over so it's time to track our action on our daily chart. The old charts remain available but get too busy with notes. Our transferred short was entered over the last two months at an average of $47.10. Its clear that this summers consumption has done little to reduce available oil. The US is importing oil at record amounts... Not to use, but to store. Storage and pipeline services are booming. There are massive physical hedges going on oil, this requires longterm capital. Not something to store oil in just out behind the barn. This storage needs utilization for years... Not just a few quarters. Our target still remains WTI @ 38 by the end of the year. We have now seen oil leave the only active up channel.. I had not expected it to drop outside of the latest micro channel (after drop to 45.5). I do not anticipate a newer, steeper micro channel to form... but will watch for it. More likely it will increase in volatility until the (no change) opec meeting is over on 27th. Until then lots of opportunities for day traders as long as they go with Trend & Fundamentals. Out swing-trade timeline lets us go outside .. But we will add to our shorts on spikes when they warrant. For now we are holding short.
FX:USOILShort
by BigEz
Will Putin's Intervention Rally Oil? Watch 46.00 For CluesAccording to a new Bloomberg interview Mr Putin is pushing for OPEC and Iran to halt oil supply in order to rally prices above $50 a barrel. The measure of success will be a close above $46.00 as it was breakout above this level that previously took oil above $50.00. Given the nature of oil any major exporter announcing they want to cut supply should provoke a short term rally and 46.00 is in view given Friday's close failed to break the 61.80% fib level. A sell trade is still on the cards with price failing to close above 44.64 where we have prior structure so now it's a matter of waiting for exhausted candles at this level or if we see a spike upwards from Mr Putin's words.
FX:USOIL
by Elliot_Myers
2
Fund. will channel/squeeze until OPEC. Watching inv/rig countTA memo to myself charting possible contingencies. USOIL to follow fundamentals/EIA/API/Rigs and channel/squeeze until September OPEC meeting. Currently at 46.60ish. EIA report was bearish but less bearish than the API report. I am still tempted for potential break-out buy point is at 46.00ish? But another more realistic possibility for me--if last week was just a sign of major short squeeze and we are now at a neutral zone, then we may go back towards the another major short after a failed OPEC meeting. But, because of looming OPEC meeting and rumors of a supposed cap, we may have a little tug of war between the bulls and bears resulting in a channel. Fundamentals point to bearish: As of today, EIA, API, Baker Hughes are bearish. Technicals: The pullback is week compared to the jump; but again, the last few week jumps have been supposedly a major short covering and this pull back is likely a neutral pullback. Conclusion: sideways movement again until the OPEC meeting as news goes back and forth. Prediction: The week of the OPEC meeting, possible sell-off because OPEC will probably not fall through again.
FX:USOIL
by MichaelHua
COMMODITIES - GOLD & OIL: GS WHAT'S DRIVING THE MARKET TODAYGOLDMAN SACHS - COMMODITIES: WHAT'S DRIVING THE MARKET TODAY The One-Liner Commodities broadly higher with weaker USD. Copper trading higher after failing to break $4750 in recent days. The Fundamental Highlights Energy: Crude marginally higher with spreads and cracks largely unchanged. The Iranian Oil Minister has not yet decided whether he will attend the Algeria IEF15 meeting at the end of Sept, with the country not expecting to hit their pre-sanction production before the meeting (their longstanding condition of joining a production freeze). Elsewhere, Nigeria has said that it sees OPEC cuts as unlikely. Industrial Metals: Base metals trading broader higher over the session, with Nickel (-1.5%) the significant outlier with Philippines expecting to complete environmental audit this month. Copper is trading well with Antofagasta CEO Ivan Arriagada saying the company is focused on profit rather than maximizing production and that output will be at the lower end of its 710,00- to 740,000 mt target. Copper vols are unchanged on the session, although were once again marked lower into the close yesterday with Sep ATM vol now 18v (-0.5v) vs realized at 15.8v. Bulks: Ferrous metals have rallied however with Iron Ore +3.8%, Rebar +4%, Coking Coal +6% as a reiteration by the NDRC that they are less than half way through their steel and coal capacity cuts, and an announcement that they are planning a new 3-year infra stimulus programme for the northeast. China has promised 45mt of steel capacity cuts and 250mt of coal capacity cuts this year, but so far has only reached 47% and 38% of each target respectively. Precious Metals: Gold stronger over the London morning (+1%), moving in tandem with the weaker USD. Gold ATM vols are largely unchanged this morning, although worth noting that Gold 1m realized vol fell to 12m lows yesterday. Participation feels light of late with aggregate OI 15% off the post Brexit highs. The ETF added 220k oz as of Friday’s data point, which doesn’t explain the $20 sell off into the close on Friday.
FX:USOIL
by QuantumLogicTrading
USOIL/ UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REVIEW WTI & BRENTIEA Monthly Oil Market Review: -IEA Keeps World Oil Demand Growth Forecast at 1.4M B/D in 2016 -IEA Downgrades World Oil Demand Growth to 1.2M B/D in 2017 -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Says Global Oil Supply Up 800,000 B/D in July on Higher OPEC, Non-OPEC Output -Non-OPEC Output Seen Falling by 900,000 B/D in 2016--IEA -Non-OPEC Output Will See Growth of 300,000 B/D in 2017--IEA -OPEC July Output Rose 150,000 B/D to 8-Year High of 33.39M B/D on Saudi, Iraq--IEA -Saudi July Output Hit Record 10.62M B/D, Up 120,000 B/D From June-IEA -IEA Says Kuwait and the UAE Pumped at Their Highest Ever Levels -IEA: Non-OPEC Supplies Output Rose by 550,000 B/D in July, to 56.7M B/D -IEA Says Expects More Subdued Growth in Refining Activity -IEA Says Crude Oil Balance Indicates Hefty Draw in Third Quarter -IEA Says Massive Stock Overhang Keeping Lid On Prices -IEA Says OECD Commercial Stocks Stood at 3.093B Barrels by End-June
FX:USOIL
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
Crude oil (WTI) Short to Medium Term Analysis The WTI Crude touched a Low of $40.55 last week after the release of inventory data (Last Wednesday) showing over Supply. The recent release of Chinese PMI data showing signs of Chinese economy slowing down further, which puts additional pressure on Oil going forward. Read More Here : Buyers Buy $41.10-$41.30 for targets of $44-$45 and a Stop below $40.40. Sellers Wait for the Bounce to complete and Short around $46 levels and stops around $48 targeting $35. I hope i have not disappointed anyone because i have something for everyone ;) But i am more biased towards the short side. Happy Trading People Cheers!! FX:USOIL
FX:USOILShort
by robin_bajaj_7