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Opec

OPEC in the news: Hike or hype?OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) shows crude oil production reduced by 49,000 barrels per day (BPD). That put the output down to an average of 28.8 million BPD in January, and this is part of a 156,000 BPD reduction by Saudi Arabia. How will the markets react? Everybody has a quick answer to that question. Oil supply & demand Anyone trading oil will tell you—whenever production is cut, the supply & demand dynamic changes and crude prices go up. And not long after, commuters everywhere feel a pinch at the pump. Is it about to happen again in 2023? In 2017, OPEC and non-OPEC members extended cuts in oil output to the tune of 1.8 million BPD. Supplies dwindled, and nations paid excessive prices throughout 2017. The whole world knew it was coming. Demand was high, and oil prices rocketed from June’s $42 (USD) up to $66. OPEC’s mission to inflate prices succeeded. Fast forward to 2020. Crude prices crash to 1999 prices in Q1. Dropping from $63 per barrel down to a shocking $14.00, OPEC’s stakeholders demanded action. OPEC cut overall crude oil production by a massive 9.7 million BPD between May and June of 2020. The reasoning was said to be an attempt to reduce the global oversupply with hopes of firming up depressed oil prices. What followed was epic. April 2020. The production cuts catapulted crude prices into a 2-year rally, rising to an extortionate $110 per barrel in May of 2022. The massive production cut not only improved OPEC’s revenue, it spiked to a ten-year high. The new prices provoked governments everywhere, and political pressure followed. It’s 2023, and here we go again… or not. All the main media channels made the oil cut announcement, as though it was a major move by OPEC. But there’s nothing major about it, and traders should be cautious. The Oil hike hype When the news was first released that OPEC would cut production, thousands of traders and financial journalists jumped on the story… likely with the expectation of bullish times ahead. Saudi Arabia’s energy and industry oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih said, “We considered various scenarios, from six (months) to nine to 12 and we even considered options for a higher cut... All indications are solid that a nine-month extension is the optimum and should bring us within the five-year average by the end of the year.” Five-year average! The 13 member countries have a near total monopoly on oil prices, and the world always needs more. OPEC has the ability to set the price at almost any level by pinching the supply chain, but there are limits that could provoke intervention or invasion, so OPEC usually tries to be reasonable. OPEC's charter is to keep oil prices at a 5-year average… the current price stabilization agreement. But the average for the last 5 years is $67 per barrel. At the time of writing, crude is at $78 per barrel. Above the average. Hardly a justification for a new production cut. But is it really a production cut, or just a modification blown out of all proportions? Media hype doesn’t match the math Every major financial media outlet is on oil right now. Big brand news sites are even throwing around the number “$100 per barrel” in the coming months. That might be a powerful motivator to get investors and traders to buy in. But before you do, consider the numbers again. A 1.8 million barrel cut added $24 to the price of crude. A 9.7 million barrel cut added $93 to the price of crude. So for every 75,000 - 100,000 BPD cut, the price of crude increased by $1. Now consider that the latest cut was only 49,000 BPD, with a target cut of 156,000 BPD. Mathematically, such a supply cut should have very little impact on today’s volatile prices, if any at all. And don’t forget Nigeria and Angola have increased production by 112,000 BPD, softening the supply flow shortage considerably. Conclusion When it comes to trading, don’t always believe the hype, no matter how legitimate the sources are. All this media hype will affect market sentiment and pump the price, but without any real fuel behind the rally, it will likely be short-lived. Oil prices are pushed and pulled by so many sources of influence. From the economy to politics, and corporate profit, there’s a lot to follow, so stay updated with the coming fundamentals before you consider trading oil.
TVC:USOIL
by Exness_Official
OPEC & The West Battling Over Oil Price. Who Wins?OPEC (and non OPEC members) are battling with the West led by the US over oil price. While the West wants oil price to hover around $60/barrel, OPEC and other oil producing countries led by Russia and Saudi Arabia feel no one should dictate the price of their commodity... With oil price now sitting on important support level, will the price breaks down to go lower OR there will be a reversal to and price start to move high? Technically, bulls came into the market early last week; drove the price high but bears later joined the market and brought price a little down. Coming week(s), if more bulls came into the market, then oil price will likely go up. Otherwise, if bears are more prominent in the next 1 or 2 weeks, then we might witness more decline in oil price. N.B - Let emotions and sentiments work for you -ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
TVC:USOIL
by BullBearMkt
Supply risks point to higher oil pricesOil prices were whipsawed this week with swings of more than 6%1 after a report from the Wall Street Journal suggested that Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) is looking to possibly increase output by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). The rumour could have easily been justified by President Biden’s decision to offer sovereign immunity to the Saudi Crown Price Mohammed bin Salman in a civil lawsuit, as geopolitics could influence decisions. However, the Saudi’s shortly denied the report that OPEC+ was not considering an output increase, helping oil prices claw back losses on the day. This makes logical sense, given that OPEC+ reduced its oil production noticeably since the beginning of November, in accordance with its early October decision. The price action on 22nd November goes to show that it takes only a small amount of movement in trades to cause a large price effect in oil. The oil market remains susceptible to further volatility amidst a backdrop of low liquidity into year end. Looking ahead, the oil market remains vulnerable to a number of key events starting with the OPEC+ meeting on Dec 4 followed by the European Union (EU) embargo on Russian oil alongside G-7 plans to launch a price cap on Russian crude sales on Dec 5. Price cap on Russian oil is hardly bearish Expectations are that the G-7 will soon announce the level at which they intend to set the price cap on Russian oil. The latest reports suggest a cap of US Dollar 65-70 per barrel, which would be well above Russia’s cost of production. Russia is already selling its crude at a significant discount, so a cap at these levels would likely have minimal impact on trading and inflict minimal harm to Russia. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has once again made it clear that Russia will not supply crude oil or refined products to countries which follow the G-7 price cap. In fact, oil will either be redirected to those nations who choose to ignore the price cap or Russian output will be reduced. This appears to be more supportive for higher prices. So far, EU diplomats are locked in negotiations over how strict the Russian mechanism should be, after Poland and Greece rejected the proposal. They would prefer to see a cap closer to the cost of production at US$30. EU leaders are now expected to seek a deal at a 15-16 December summit, in follow up to the energy minister meeting this week on 24 November. EU embargo on the import of Russian oil is approaching fast. This comes into effect on 5 December for crude oil and 5 February 2023 for oil products. In the last three months, Russia has remained the largest external supplier of diesel to the EU, delivering 540kbd2. According to IEA estimates, the EU was still importing 1.5mbd of Russian crude oil in October, which corresponded to just under 15% of total EU crude oil imports. In the coming months, the EU will need to find alternative suppliers. Replacing these supplies is not going to be easy. Russia will need to find other buyers leading to further uncertainty on the oil markets. India, Turkey and China have increased their purchases of Russian oil, thereby enabling Russia to continue exporting large quantities of oil. Weak demand dominating sentiment on the oil market Oil prices are down nearly 35% from its peak as sentiment remains dominated by concerns over weaking demand as the global economy enters a recession alongside an unprecedented release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Net speculative positioning in WTI crude oil futures is more than 1-standard deviation below the 5-year average underscoring extreme bearishness on the oil market3. Its worth noting that speculative positioning in oil was on a downtrend prior to the peak in oil prices. That indicates for one investors were probably taking profits on earlier holdings and higher volatility in oil market kept buyers at bay. Although in a severe recession, oil demand can decline sharply, we are anticipating a much shallower recession for both the US and Eurozone economy. In the middle of the year, China’s oil demand was hit severely by lockdown restrictions, with demand falling below April 2020 and 2021 levels by 1-2mbd4. Although their remains uncertainty about China re-opening, we expect oil demand to recover from Q2 2023 onwards and accelerate towards year end. This should help oil demand from China grow in contrast to the prior two years. Conclusion: The oil market still seems structurally undersupplied over the next few years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) assumes by the end of Q1 2023 oil production will be 2mbd lower than prior to the invasion of Ukraine. We expect the Chinese re-opening, Russian supply risk, the end of SPR releases and lower levels of investment in the energy sector to contribute to a tighter oil market in 2023.
NYMEX:CL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
2
XLE to break bullish triangle + OPEC cutOPEC threatens to cut oil prices ten times more than in September in an attempt to plug the oil drain. - The New York Times' sources estimate that the agency is considering announcing a cut of between 500,000 and 1 million barrels per day, about 1% of global supply, because the market is oversupplied and demand is softening due to the weakening global economy. This plus the bullish triangle a good take profit could be around 90-93 usd.
AMEX:XLELong
by Fractal-Surfer
2
Oil Regains the $90'sAs we have been predicting for a while, oil has broken out into the $90's. There are only so many reserves that Biden can deplete in a frenetic attempt to improve his tarnished image before midterms. We have smashed through $90.06, which provided strong resistance and was a barrier for some time. We are currently testing $92.03 which was the exact target we predicted last week. Red triangles on the KRI are confirming resistance here. If we see a retracement we will find support at $90.06 again, or $88.74. Our next target is $95.24.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Brent could trade higher only if...Energy prices climbed on Friday as Brent reached the 92.60 price level and WTI climbed a high of 98.75. This move higher was due to the weakness of the DXY and the anticipation that China was ready to reopen borders, spurring demand for oil. However, as China reiterates its intention to maintain its current Covid policy, both Brent and WTI are retracing lower from last week’s climb higher. Look for the completion of the retracement before a continuation of the uptrend. The prices could test the key resistance level of 97.00 for WTI and 102.00 for Brent, if prices clear above the immediate resistance of 94.00 and 100 respectively.
TVC:USOILLong
by JinDao_Tai
NOG:Triangle to cap gains!NORTHERN OIL AND GAS Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 32.29 (stop at 34.86) Our outlook is bearish. Price action has posted a Doji candle and confirms a possible stall in the recent move. Price continues to trade within the triangle formation. A break of 32.50 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum. Our profit targets will be 25.40 and 22.00 Resistance: 34.00 / 39.00 / 45.00 Support: 25.40 / 18.00 / 12.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:NOGShort
by VantageMarkets
Another leg up for crude oil? To answer this question, we need to look at the following: 1) US Strategic Petroleum Reserve The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is currently at its lowest level since 1984, while the absolute level is worrisome, the speed of the drawdown on the reserve over the past year is more concerning. In an effort to combat rising prices and possibly secure the midterm elections, President Biden has continually announced release from the reserve, depleting close to a third of the reserve since the start of 2022. If and when this extra supply is cut off, oil prices will likely head higher. 2) OPEC Production Cuts With the OPEC announcement to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, the world is yet under more energy supply stress. While the cut is only about 2% of global supply, it does signify a shift in stance from OPEC, clashing with the West as the US condemns OPEC’s actions. With the next OPEC+ meeting taking place in December, we will closely monitor if further production tightening continues. 3) Crude Oil and DXY As Crude Oil is quoted in USD, the dollar’s performance has a great impact on oil prices. The chart above shows the dollar (inverted) against Crude Oil. The 2 generally move together, up until the start of 2022, when dollar strengthened significantly alongside oil. As this relationship stretches further away from the normal, we fear a ‘snap’ may occur should a pivot in the Fed’s policies occur. That would greatly weaken the USD, and push oil prices significantly higher. 4) China’s turn With China still essentially closed from the rest of the world, any shift towards opening the Chinese economy could awaken the world’s 2nd largest consumer of oil. Looking at the Crude Oil Chart, we see a continued uptrend since the negative oil prices fiasco in May 2022. With a stalled attempt to break lower in September, and prices now back in line with the uptrend, we could potentially see higher oil prices from here. We also note the 90$ handle as a significant level, where 2 previous attempts to break past were rejected. But with a clear and decisive break past the 90$ mark, are the bulls in control now? In our opinion, crude oil is like the stone on a slingshot, stretched further and further back by multiple macro factors. If any were to snap, oil could be slingshot higher… Entry at 92.25, stops at 85. Target at 100. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify any trading set-ups in real-time and react accordingly. To find out more, visit www.tradingview.com under the CME Group exchange to view the real-time data plans available. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
11