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Fundamental Updates – OPEC+ United Once Again (19 July 2021)A compromised deal. After a two-week stalemate in the discussion, the OPEC+ reconvened its meeting over the weekend. As part of a compromise, the oil-producing group has agreed for a raise in the production baseline for five members. Oil production baseline increment in barrels-per-day (bpd) Saudi Arabia: 500,000 bpd Russia: 500,000 bpd UAE: 332,000 bpd Iraq: 150,000 bpd Kuwait: 150,000 bpd Although the baseline for the UAE has been raised, it falls short from the UAE’s initial request by 300,000 bpd. It was also revealed that Algeria and Nigeria have requested for an increase in their individual baselines. With the issue of production baseline resolved, the OPEC+ had finalized a deal. Starting from August, there will be a hike in oil production by 400,000 bpd. Furthermore, the group has agreed to phase out the current 5.8 million bpd of oil production cut by September 2022. Impact on oil prices. Prior to this deal, the market believed that without a unanimous agreement, the OPEC+ will retain their current oil production quota. And since the OPEC+ is currently running on a supply deficit, the possibility of maintaining the current production quota led to the strengthening of oil prices. Now that the storm is over, a downward pressure has been placed on oil prices due to the increase in supply. This explains why oil prices started declining when the market kickstarted a new week earlier today. Impact on the Canadian dollar. As we know, there is a positive correlation between oil prices and the Canadian dollar (as oil prices rise, Canadian dollar tends to rise, vice-versa). In that sense, the Canadian dollar weakened as a result of the increase in oil supply by the OPEC+. This can be seen from the strengthening of USD/CAD and the weakening of CAD/JPY when the market opened earlier today.
FX:USOILSPOT
by GH_Lee
Brent oil buyers remain hopeful inside five-week-old channelAlthough the weekly falling trend line probes Brent oil buyers of late, the commodity prices remain inside an ascending trend channel from May 27, not to forget staying beyond 100-SMA. The same joins an upbeat RSI line to keep buyers directed towards an immediate resistance line of $76.00. However, any further upside will be questioned by the stated channel’s upper line, close to $77.50. In a case where the oil bulls remain dominant past $77.50, the late October peak surrounding $78.00 may test the rally targeting the $80.00 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, pullback moves become less concerned until staying beyond the 100-SMA level of $74.10, needless to mention the channel support of $74.50. Also acting as a downside filter is the $74.00 mark, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to decline towards the mid-June lows near $72.00. It’s worth noting that Thursday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s US NFP, not to forget Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, become the key events for energy traders.
TVC:UKOILLong
by MTradingGlobal
wti shortHey guys! Trading should be simple, when you over complicate things you are usually way to attached mentally/emotionally to a setup/trade. Here's WTI.... OPEC coming up again tomorrow with the first meeting being a solid "nothing", and that "nothing" helped us form a pullback, but that pullback resulted into a lower high... meaning this is now a solid bearish setup. We are short on WTI and you can see why, - bearish wedge - Lower high on RSI - Lower price action high - Double top rejection Good luck trading!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by PrimedGroup
15% Move for Brent Oil Brent Oil trading within the Apex we are soon to get a breakout or breakdown . As detailed on the chart we can see that the .75 Fib has been a Strong support for Brent since December 2020 and is still respected . With that said we have a measured move of around 15 percent for this to extend its uptrend into the 80 dollar zone or retreat back to the 56 Dollar level where we can expect support to hold . Like and Follow for Daily Analysis , signals and to see or hear my perspective . Know your Invalidation and Trade With a Plan . PLEASE NOTE THIS PERSPECTICE IS BASED UPON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ONLY I DO NOT FOLLOW ANY GEO POLITICS THAT OF COURSE CAN EFFECT THE OUTCOME SHOW ME THE CHART AND I WILL TELL YOU THE NEWS IS HOW I WORK
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by SJTRADESFUTURES
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 18 – Expecting a drop.In our previous forecast, we were expecting WTI to fall and reach the liquidity pool. Instead, the price increased, but our bias hasn’t changed. For next week, we expect the price to lose some steam and drop towards the support area that we highlighted. Keep an eye on Wednesday’s weekly EIA stocks report as it may have an impact on this asset. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
18
SCARY DAY ! IF IT'S WEDNESDAY IT'S MAD! Or THE BRIDGE OF SighS !!! The Fed, OPEC, BIDEN, COVID and the outside rain hit the same day. With the slogan roast the pastures, poison the fountains, scare the investors, the Bau Bau group above seems to have brought a total eclipse of daily optimism on the financial markets. From Crypto to metals, they all seem set for declines at today's opening, on the principle "head in the ground, the sword does not cut it", learned from the Service Ostrich. Google alone, the new owner of dream reports, seems to be successfully withstanding this fiery day. Of course, a lot can change during the day, and especially after each event. But it is important to decrypt Powell and Biden's messages today, faster and better than an SRI did with the Russian spy. And no matter how hard Powell tries to convince us that the rate is going up, and inflation is transient, the olfactory organ that grows more than Pinocchio is empty. We expect uncertainties until 9.30pm, when Powell's diction can impact indices, metals and of course EUR / USD. Then comes Biden somewhere late at night, who armed with Tony Robbins 'books, and Houdini's will, will try to fool Congress into cutting a healthy slice of the Americans' ready money cake. I don't think it will succeed, at least not at the level mentioned in the press, but Piata is already more cautious than the law stipulates, only according to rumors. After all, if you ask for a block of flats, to get at least a 10-room villa, it seems like a solid strategy. Let's see where the pot closes. Until another one, do you remember that suspension bridge through China, where, in addition to the infernal balance, the glass was breaking under your feet !? So is the sensation of the markets today. But just like at that bridge, in the end everything was just imagination, and you were safely at the opposite end. After today's storm, I predict a quiet morning tomorrow. Green because it's spring. And what could be more enjoyable on a spring morning if not a collectible coffee. And a cigar eventually ... And profit in portfolios. So I'm free today. I let others shake their heads ... We'll be talking tomorrow when I think we'll have ..... EVERYTHING GREEN !!!
NYSE:DOW
by Viorex
Oil: OPEC+ sticking to raise output from MayThe originally scheduled 4/28 (3) OPEC+ ministerial meeting was held ahead of schedule on 4/27. The resolution was held on hold and was in line with market expectations. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained stood at the prices of $63 and $66 per barrel respectively. MM Analysis On Tuesday evening, the OPEC JMMC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (providing OPEC policy advice) recommended to maintain the agreement reached at the beginning of April (gradually increase in output by 350k, 350k, and 440k barrels per day from May to July). With the consent of 23 member states, the originally scheduled 4/28 OPEC+ ministerial meeting was also held ahead of schedule, and the resolution was held on hold and was in line with market expectations. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices stood at $63 and $66 per barrel respectively. Although the world’s important crude oil importing countries-India, Brazil, and Japan are facing a new Covid-19 wave, creating uncertainty for the recovery of crude oil demand, the OPEC JTC (Joint Technical Committee) remains optimistic about the trend of global economic recovery, maintaining the global crude oil demand forecast for 2021 at 96.5 million barrels/day, an increase of 5.95 million barrels/day from last year, and it is estimated that the OECD commercial crude oil inventory level will be digested in July this year to below the past 5-year average. The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled on June 1, 2021, production quotas for July and August of this year will be discussed.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MacroMicro_Global
HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY !! HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY! 10:30 p.m. Warm morning sun, some nature chirping from the birds around, a great time to enjoy a coffee. Start HOLY WEEK! Financially speaking, after a recovering Friday, it would be natural for the green to flood the Square today. And maybe it will be! But we can't help but glance over the cup of coffee at the situation of the week that seems hectic. First of all, thanks to reports, a number of world giants must be in the works. But this is not necessarily the problem, because they are expected to report well. The problem would be Wednesday, a really explosive day. Let's see why: 1. Biden's speech. Nothing can be more worrying than Biden's speech at Wednesday's joint congressional session, where he is expected to reveal the first details of his widely reported tax hike so far, planned for the wealthiest of Americans. The president of all wants an unlikely 43.4% for the richest Americans, bringing combined state and federal taxes to places like New York and California to over 50% !! No matter how difficult it will be for him to impose in the congress, in the short term the Market will react to rumors. 2. OPEC meeting Normally this meeting would sanctify the plans established a month ago if no other events happen in the last period. But ... didn't it happen ?! Well, India is the world's third largest consumer of oil, on infusions and fans literally, after a series of days with over 300k infections / 24 hours. Japan, the 4th largest consumer, also has problems with Covid ul. Iran lags behind with progress in talks with US, which may mean it will export oil again sometime in the not too distant future 3. EDF meeting Originally categorized as a NON Event, it could be an influence in various directions. Of all, I would mention the Precious Metals Market. In a long-awaited recovery, they have already stumbled at the first resistance, diverted by various external factors. One could be Powell, who enters an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, said the central bank will limit any exceeding of its inflation target. In any case, metal prices are expected to consolidate, or even decline, until Powell's post-Fed press conference. As a result, we have 3 events + quarterly reports, which can send almost any sector in almost any direction, affecting virtually the entire market. Normally, near such confluences, investors stand a little aside. Normally I said, but is it a period of normalcy !? Of course not !!! So we have 2 interesting days until Wednesday, when we hoped we would have: EVERYTHING ABNORMALLY GREEN !!!
NYSE:DOW
by Viorex
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 14 – Medium-term bearish.On Thursday, the OPEC+ alliance decided to gradually increase the production starting from May in order to keep crude oil prices in check. Last week, WTI corrected and almost reached the resistance target that we forecasted in our previous analysis. Next week, we expect the price to reach the resistance area highlighted on the chart, before falling towards to support area located in the mid-’50s. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
18
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 13 – Correction not over yet.WTI dropped the most since November as signs of powerful gasoline demand in the U.S. eased concerns around the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. In our previous analysis, we correctly forecasted that the price will drop and reach the support area that we highlighted. Next week, we expect the price to “correct” towards the resistance area highlighted on the chart, before breaking the low again. This move would only act as a consolidation in the bigger timeframe and in the medium-term could push the price towards the second support zone. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
16
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 12 – Bigger degree correction.WTI dropped nearly 10% as short-term demand concerns and a rising dollar clashed to cause the biggest intraday plunge since October. For this week we expect a corrective move towards the resistance area highlighted on our chart, before resuming the downtrend and breaking the trendline. The bigger degree correction that we were expecting for a few weeks has started and we expect the price to continue dropping into the mid 50’s. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
20
CRUDE OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 9 – Time for a pullback?Last week, Oil recovered its previous losses and hit the $64 level. We are now forming a parallel channel at the top and it looks like the price is making small higher-highs, as this may be a hint that we are losing some momentum. It remains to be seen if we will break the lower channel line and ultimately start a bearish move that would act as a much-needed pullback that can push the price back to the $60 level. We recommend focusing on other instruments for now, as the bullish momentum is still strong and it may continue to rise. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
12
Brent crude soars on OPEC surpriseThursday's OPEC+ meeting became a market-mover event, as members announced that production cuts would be extended in April. This caught the market completely off guard, as OPEC+ was widely expected to raise output by 500,000 barrels per month. Instead, OPEC+ has opted to hold back some 9.2 million barrels from the market each day, until at least the beginning of May. Crude responded to the OPEC+ announcement with sharp gains. Brent crude jumped 4.84% on Thursday, its highest one-day gain in two weeks. With an additional gain of close to 1 percent on Friday, Brent crude punched above the USD 68 line for the first time since January 2020. Oil prices have soared since November 2020, with Brent crude jumping a staggering 76% during that time. The key question now for investors and traders is whether the uptrend will continue, or will we see a levelling off in oil prices. The fact that the global economy is slowly recovering from Covid-19 should translate into higher demand for crude and maintain upward pressure on oil prices. At the same time, OPEC members are notorious for not abiding by production limits, which could put a curb on higher prices. In other news on the crude oil front, the EIA Crude Oil inventories report showed a record-high surplus of 21.6 million barrels. However, this figure was distorted by the recent Texas storm, which resulted in huge stockpiles due to refiners being unable to take on crude shipments. Prior to today's EIA release, nine of the past 11 readings have shown drawdowns, and with significant pent-up demand in the US economy, this trend could well continue. Brent crude has broken above resistance at the overnight high of 67.72 and double top, with the next resistance at 71.52, which has held since May 2019. Support is distant between USD62.03 and USD62.48.
FX_IDC:USDBRO
by OANDA
USD/CAD - Heading For a Correction?The dollar has been in a long term downtrend against the loonie but that may be about to change. The greenback came back into favour on Friday after a period of softness which saw it fall to its lowest level against its Canadian counterpart for around three years. Rising oil prices can often be supportive for the Canadian dollar and likely contributed to its success over the last four months. But with the oil rally running on fumes ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, that may be about to change. With that in mind, the pair could be headed for a little correction. The 55/89 day SMA band has been something of a ceiling for the pair during the descent and with it approaching the zone now, we should find out pretty soon if that's going to be the case once more. A break above here would be a bullish signal and could set the pair up for a run at 1.30, which would be a big test. A break of this and things are suddenly looking up for the pair after a prolonged period of weakness. Of course, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting next week could have a big impact on the pair. The group surprised us back in January and could do so again. That said, given current prices and progress towards the recovery in recent months, a repeat performance seems unlikely.
by OANDA
Brent Crude - Looking Overextended Ahead of OPEC+ MeetingOil prices have enjoyed a remarkable rally over the last four months as the world has gone from entering the most severe wave of Covid-19 to rolling out vaccines and planning its final exit from the restrictions. Efforts by OPEC+ have been key to this, including the surprise one million barrel cut from Saudi Arabia earlier in the year, which confirmed the group was committed to bringing the market back into balance even as the world starts to emerge from the pandemic. But the next phase is arguably the most challenging for the group so it's so surprise that the week before the next meeting, we're seeing momentum slipping on the daily chart, even as prices are hitting new highs. That kind of divergence is a red flag rather than a reversal signal but after such a powerful run and ahead of a meeting that could be challenging, a correction wouldn't be entirely surprising. We could still see some more gains in the near-term but the closer it gets to $70, the more interesting the momentum indicators will become, given the psychological barrier and the fact it has historically been a key level of resistance. The 4-hour chart shows that price is currently quite extended, with it being quite far from the moving averages compared to where it's traded the last few months. A move back towards the 55/89 SMA band would be very interesting, with it having been a key support zone all the way up. There have been small moves below at times but broadly speaking, it has been a key reversal point. A break below this could signal a larger correction, although that may well depend on the outcome of next week's meeting and how positive investors stay in the face of rising yields.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA