SEC Allows Options Trading on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Market Update - September 27th, 2024
Takeaways
The SEC has approved Nasdaq's request to list and trade options on BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF: The decision introduces new hedging tools for investors but comes with a 25,000 contract limit which has been criticized by the exchange as “conservative.”
Crypto investment products saw a second consecutive week of inflows, totaling $321 million, after the Fed's decision to cut rates: Bitcoin investment products led the pack with $284 million in inflows last week.
More than 40 Republican lawmakers called on SEC chair Gary Gensler to withdraw the crypto custody rule (SAB 121): They argue the rule increases consumer risk and stifles innovation.
Caroline Ellison, ex-CEO of Alameda Research, was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX fraud case: Despite her cooperation with law enforcement in the case against Sam Bankman-Fried, the judge ruled that Ellison must still serve time.
On Monday, OpenAI’s official news account on X was compromised, with hackers using it to promote a fake "$OPENAI" token: The fraudulent post claimed the token would grant access to future beta programs and directed victims to a spoof website.
PayPal to accept crypto payments: Payments giant PayPal announced Wednesday it would allow business accounts to buy, hold, and sell cryptocurrencies.
SEC Allows Options Trading on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF on Nasdaq's ISE
The SEC has approved a rule change permitting the listing and trading of options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, on Nasdaq’s International Securities Exchange (ISE).
BlackRock had been pushing for this approval since March, following the launch of several bitcoin-linked ETFs in the US. Earlier proposals faced concerns around market manipulation. Regulators also expressed concerns around introducing more crypto derivatives products to the market, due to their nascency. To address these concerns, the SEC approved an amendment that limits positions on IBIT options to just 25,000 contracts. The limit has been described as "extremely conservative" by Nasdaq.
The regulator also concluded that the exchange’s surveillance systems would be an adequate deterrent for market manipulation. Currently, BlackRock’s IBIT spot bitcoin ETF is the largest in the world, with more than $17 billion in assets under management.
🏦 Topic of the Week: What Are Central Bank Digital Currencies?
➡️ Read more here
Openai
BitSensor - Ethical Decentralized AI PotentialOverall Sentiment: Extremely bullish.
Thesis: TAO's decentralized approach to AI development offers a compelling alternative to centralized AI models, especially in light of recent concerns about corporate control and AI safety. (OpenAI Becoming a for-Profit Entity and last of Original Board leaving)
Strengths:
Decentralized Governance: This model can mitigate risks associated with centralized control and potential biases.
Community-Driven Development: A decentralized approach can foster innovation and adaptability.
Potential for Ethical AI: Decentralization can promote transparency and accountability.
Market Opportunity: The growing demand for AI solutions and concerns about centralized control create a favorable environment for TAO.
Key Indicators:
Volume: Approaching all-time highs for the year.
Sentiment: Positive, especially following Mira Murati's departure.
Technical Indicators: Expanding Bollinger Bands and promising Ichimoku levels suggest potential upside.
Price Targets:
Strong Support: $478
Target 1: $684
Strong Resistance: $820
Breakout Zone: $1102-$1183
Mid-Term Target 1: $1461.8
Short-term Outlook:
Based on the current technical analysis and positive sentiment, TAO appears to be in a strong uptrend.
A potential short-term target is $684.
If the price breaks above the strong resistance level of $820, it could signal a significant bullish breakout.
Mid-term Outlook:
The mid-term target of $1461.8 is ambitious but achievable if the current positive momentum continues.
However, it's important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and prices can fluctuate rapidly.
Apple Partners With OpenAI for AI Integration Into iOS & MacOSApple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) has emerged as the talk of tech town ahead of WWDC24, with reports claiming the company is in partnership with OpenAI for AI integration into iOS and macOS models. Although no official statement by the firms has surfaced in the market, the news has taken the industry by storm. Apple remains poised to unveil AI features in the upcoming WWDC, reported Bloomberg correspondent Mark Gurman. Project Greymatter, a set of AI tools that the company will integrate into core apps like Safari, Photos, and Notes, lies at the core of the event. These features will be integrated into iOS18 models and macOS15 models, with operations handled via a two-structured process. A detailed structure will probably be ruled out at the upcoming WWDC event.
Also, the industry is abuzz with numerous reports of Apple's plans to leverage Google's AI services as well. Although an official statement is much-awaited, these talks have taken the AI industry by storm. A potential collaborative effort with Google may not come as a surprise, given OpenAI's recent scrutiny due to the misuse of its technology across various sectors. Nonetheless, numerous reports across the globe proclaim a partnership between OpenAI and Apple is in the pipeline.
It's worth noting that Apple Inc.'s stock price traded at $191.66 today, up 0.7% as of the time of writing. If plans to integrate AI go successfully, the firm could see a significant rise in value. OpenAI remains poised to benefit substantially from its partnership with Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), although more details are much-awaited.
OpenAI’s search engine: Implications beyond GOOG stockOpenAI has denied rumors claiming it's set to reveal an AI-powered search engine for its flagship chatbot, ChatGPT, on Monday.
Although there is speculation that OpenAI is being a bit of a wise guy, and the product it will demo is not a search engine, but what they might dub as the next generation of search engines.
It will be interesting to see if this product, whenever it is first demonstrated, is anything Google will have to worry about. According to Bloomberg, OpenAI’s search tool will be partly powered by Microsoft’s Bing search engine. Make of that what you will.
Either way, this could likely ratchet up competition with Google and the market might have already begun to price in this risk to GOOG stock. But what other stocks could face a negative or positive risk from this development?
Maybe we can ask ChatGPT:
“Online advertising companies: Companies that heavily rely on Google's advertising platform for revenue could face challenges if advertisers shift their budgets to the new search engine. This includes companies like The Trade Desk (TTD), Magnite Inc. (MGNI), and Criteo S.A. (CRTO).
E-commerce platforms: Google's search engine is a major source of traffic for many e-commerce platforms. If a rival search engine gains popularity, it could impact the flow of traffic and potentially affect revenue for companies like Amazon (AMZN), eBay Inc. (EBAY), and Shopify Inc. (SHOP).
Payment processing companies: Google's search engine facilitates e-commerce transactions, which benefits payment processing companies like PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) and Square Inc. (SQ). If a rival search engine affects e-commerce traffic patterns, it could indirectly impact payment processing companies.
Digital marketing agencies: Companies that specialize in search engine optimization (SEO) and search engine marketing (SEM) services may see a shift in demand if advertisers allocate resources away from Google towards the new search engine. Examples include companies like WPP plc (WPP) and Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC).
Data analytics companies: Google's search engine generates vast amounts of data, which is valuable for analytics purposes. If a new search engine captures market share, it could impact data analytics companies that rely on Google's data for insights. Companies like Nielsen Holdings plc (NLSN) and The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation (DNB) could be affected.
Online review platforms: Google's search engine plays a significant role in driving traffic to online review platforms like Yelp Inc. (YELP) and TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP). A new search engine could potentially change the dynamics of online reviews and impact these platforms' user base and revenue streams.”
Worldcoin: The Future of Digital Identity What happens when 90 plus percent of everything we interact with and see on the internet is created or enhanced by AI?
A new project has emerged with the potential to revolutionize the way we think about digital identity. Worldcoin, co-founded by Sam Altman of OpenAI, aims to create a global network of digital identities for a world where AI robots become harder to distinguish from humans.
At the heart of Worldcoin is the concept of "proof of personhood," which is becoming increasingly important as AI technology advances. The project utilizes an innovative approach to identity verification through the use of an "Orb" device that scans people's irises to ensure they are unique human beings.
"It is a way to verify humanness truly at population scale, independent of governments, able to scale to billions of people. And that is what we call World ID, which underlying is a biometric verification device that we call the orb, that you see here, that actually allows us to do that. So that is World ID, that's building block one. And two is a digital currency called Worldcoin that everyone that actually verifies for World ID receives ownership in it. That is the protocol level. And then also, to get all of this going, we built the first app that connects to the protocol that we call World App So that's a non-custodial wallet that lets you send money to your friends, lets you verify with your World ID and kind of brings together many of the technologies that came out of crypto in the last couple years and just makes them very easy to understand and use" - Alex Blania CEO, Tools For Humanity
But Worldcoin is not just about identity verification. The project also aims to provide a universal basic income through the distribution of its MIL:WLD token to every human. This bold vision could have a significant impact on financial inclusion and help to address some of the economic challenges that the world is currently facing.
The association with OpenAI and Sam Altman has generated significant interest in Worldcoin, with the project raising $115 million in a Series C round led by Blockchain Capital. The project's token, MIL:WLD , has seen a surge in price, reaching $9.35, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Now, let's look at the MIL:WLD token. With a total supply of 10 billion and a current circulating supply of 104 million, there's still a lot of room for growth. This is a potential proxy for the public to invest in OpenAI, the largest AI research company. And if the project continues to gain traction, the demand for the token could increase, potentially driving the price up.
While there are still many unknowns about the future of Worldcoin, the project's ambitious goals and innovative approach to identity verification make it one to watch in the world of cryptocurrency and AI.
Most will wait till MIL:WLD is listed on major exchanges....by than what price will it be!? As always, early bird gets the worm.
Match Group (MTCH) About to Take OffI generally don't look at 3M charts, nor do I ever have this many indicators on my charts...
BUT they're all aligning - pair that up with an OpenAI partnership and there's no where but up from here.
Match Group is the company behind Tinder, Match, Hinge and a total of 40ish relationship apps - I'll breakdown my theory as simple as possible...
I can realistically see a 10x+ out of this.
AI = Job Cuts = More OF Girls = Bigger Female Egos = Desperate Guys = Pay-to-Date
Then, eventually, the lines between a female and AI will blur...but we have time on that.
Microsoft's Market Cap Skyrockets to $3.12 Trillion
Microsoft's Historic Market Cap Breaks Records
In a monumental shift in the tech industry's landscape, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) has surged past Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) to claim the title of the world's most valuable company by market capitalization. With its market cap reaching an unprecedented $3.12 trillion, Microsoft's ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) ascent marks a historic milestone, surpassing Apple's ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) previous record high of $3.090 trillion, achieved on July 31, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
This surge comes on the heels of Microsoft-backed OpenAI's remarkable achievement, as the AI startup reached a staggering $2 billion in revenue in December. As reported by the Financial Times, sources familiar with OpenAI's financials revealed this milestone, attributing it to the burgeoning demand for generative AI tools in corporate settings. OpenAI anticipates further exponential growth, aiming to double its revenue in 2025, fueled by robust interest from business clients seeking innovative AI solutions.
OpenAI's ChatGPT Propels Revenue Growth, Valuation Soars to $80 Billion
OpenAI's meteoric rise to a $2 billion revenue milestone in December underscores the increasing prominence of AI technologies in modern business landscapes. The company's ChatGPT product played a pivotal role in driving this growth, as its annualized revenue surged from $1.3 billion in mid-October to over $1.6 billion by December, as reported by The Information.
Investor confidence in OpenAI remains steadfast, with the San Francisco-based startup commanding a valuation exceeding $80 billion. The company's chief, Sam Altman, is actively engaged in discussions with potential investors, including the UAE, to secure funds for ambitious ventures. Notably, Altman seeks to spearhead initiatives aimed at bolstering global chip-building capacity, thereby enhancing OpenAI's ability to power advanced AI applications and drive technological innovation on a global scale.
Microsoft and OpenAI's Joint Endeavors
The convergence of Microsoft's unparalleled market dominance and OpenAI's groundbreaking achievements heralds a new era of innovation and technological advancement. As Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) solidifies its position at the forefront of the industry, its strategic partnership with OpenAI amplifies its capacity to pioneer transformative AI solutions.
Conclusion
As both entities continue to push the boundaries of what is possible, their collaborative vision extends beyond commercial success to encompass broader societal impacts. By leveraging OpenAI's expertise in AI research and development, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) aims to empower businesses worldwide with cutting-edge tools and technologies, driving productivity, efficiency, and innovation across diverse sectors.
In the quest to redefine the future of technology, Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and OpenAI stand as beacons of progress, poised to revolutionize industries, empower individuals, and shape the trajectory of global innovation for years to come.
Calling the $MSFT top here. See you sub $200The popular narrative is that NASDAQ:MSFT is going to benefit from AI and if there's a downturn, the stock will hold up.
I have a different view. I think we've topped here and will only see lower prices going forward.
Over the next year, I anticipate NASDAQ:MSFT 's price dropping sub $200 to the support levels on the chart.
Only thing that would change my bias is a push above the resistance line and flipping it as support.
Let's see how it plays out.
AI Integration Deepens in Cardano with Girolamo Chatbot LaunchCardano integrates AI with Girolamo launch, advances in blockchain with Mithril, and prepares for a pivotal governance vote.
Cardano (ADA), a prominent blockchain platform, has taken a significant leap in integrating artificial intelligence with its ecosystem. The recent beta launch of Girolamo, an internet-enabled generative chatbot, marks a pivotal moment in Cardano’s AI journey. This development aligns with Cardano’s ongoing efforts to intertwine blockchain technology and AI, showcasing a blend of innovation and practical application.
Girolamo Launch Marks Cardano’s AI Evolution
Girolamo, named after the renowned Italian mathematician Girolamo Cardano, represents a groundbreaking step for Cardano in AI. This chatbot is designed to handle a broad spectrum of queries, from industry-specific to general everyday questions. Remarkably, Girolamo also boasts the capability to generate and interpret images, adding a visual dimension to its functionality.
ADA’s engagement with AI technology traces back to 2021, with the unveiling of Grace, an AI robot developed by Awakening Health. This venture was a collaboration between Hanson Robotics and SingularityNET, a blockchain partner of Cardano. The synergy between blockchain and AI has been a focal point for Cardano, particularly highlighted by the launch of the AGIX converter bridge in the past year.
Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, reached out to Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, proposing a collaboration. This gesture reflects ADA’s aspiration to expand its blockchain ecosystem, potentially exploring a partner chain with OpenAI. Such collaborations signify Cardano’s commitment to staying at the forefront of blockchain and AI integration.
In parallel, ADA’s lightweight wallet, Lace, updated version 1.7.1. This update addresses various issues, including enhancing dApps connectivity with the Lace wallet. These improvements are crucial for streamlining user interactions within the ADA network.
Cardano Advances with Mithril Relay Prototype
Cardano’s decentralization efforts took a step forward with the Mithril team’s completion of the prototype implementation of the Mithril relay. This development is key in enabling peer-to-peer signature broadcasting, a fundamental aspect of decentralized networks.
Moreover, ADA is gearing up for a significant governance milestone. The community is preparing for a special ballot vote under CIP-1694, focusing on assessing advancements in on-chain and off-chain governance. The snapshot for participating wallets was taken on November 21, with the voting process scheduled from December 1 to December 11.
The series of developments in the ADA ecosystem has been met with optimism in the cryptocurrency market. Following the announcements, ADA, Cardano’s native cryptocurrency, saw a positive price movement. In the last 24 hours, ADA experienced a price increase of 0.40%, trading at $0.3937.
Worldcoin (WLD) surges by over 6% as Sam Altman rejoins OpenAISam Altman has returned to OpenAI as CEO, causing a ripple effect that includes Worldcoin, a crypto he co-founded.
Altman’s return results in significant changes to OpenAI’s board, including strategic collaborations and renewed optimism for the future.
On November 22, OpenAI officially announced the rehiring of Sam Altman as CEO, marking a watershed moment for the organization.
Altman’s return is accompanied by changes to the board structure, including the appointment of Bret Taylor as Chairman and the inclusion of influential figures such as Larry Summers and Adam D’Angelo.
The board reshuffle is in response to the changing dynamics in the AI industry. Altman’s ambitious approach to AI development is said to have clashed with the board’s conservative stance, leading to his previous firing. The new board makeup reflects a strategic alignment with OpenAI’s future vision.
Altman expressed his enthusiasm for his return to OpenAI and emphasized the collaborative efforts with Microsoft. This collaboration is expected to bring new perspectives and synergies that will help to shape the future of AI innovation.
Altman’s reappearance has heightened interest in Worldcoin, the crypto he co-founded. Following the announcement, the price of Worldcoin increased from $2.199 to $2.85.
This price increase reflects investors’ confidence and optimism in the crypto’s potential, indicating that it will perform well in the future. The price of Worldcoin has changed dramatically in the last 24 hours. After reaching $2.85, there was a slight correction that brought the price down to $2.55.
Despite this minor dip, the overall mood remains upbeat, with high expectations for Worldcoin’s growth and stability.
Microsoft (MSFT) Hits All-time High After Hiring Sam AltmanMicrosoft stock reached a record high on Monday after the company said that Sam Altman, former chief executive of OpenAI, will join the company to head its artificial intelligence innovation leg.
Shares of the tech behemoth rose 2.1% to an all-time high close of $377.44 on Monday, beating the previous record of $376.17.
That comes after shares of Microsoft fell 1.7% on Friday, when Sam Altman was ousted from his position at OpenAI in a boardroom coup. Microsoft is the artificial intelligence firm’s biggest stakeholder, with a $13 billion investment in the company.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
MSFT is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
📉 Dow Jones Sees Downturn as Microsoft Tumble Shakes Markets 📉Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average took an unexpected hit as the market witnessed a significant drop, largely attributed to a substantial decline in Microsoft's value. 📉💥
Microsoft, a tech behemoth, has long been a cornerstone of the stock market, but recent fluctuations have sent ripples across various sectors. The company's declining value has triggered investor concerns, reflecting broader anxieties about the tech sector's stability. 💻📉
This dip in the Dow Jones emphasizes the interdependence of major corporations within the index. Microsoft's stumble has highlighted the fragility of market sentiments, sparking discussions about the impact on the overall economy and the tech industry's health. 🔍💼
While this sudden descent may stir uncertainty, seasoned traders see it as an opportunity to reassess portfolios, recalibrate strategies, and identify potential market shifts. Keeping a watchful eye on both tech sector developments and market sentiments will be crucial in navigating these turbulent waters. 🌊📈
Stay tuned for further insights and analysis as we continue to monitor this evolving situation. Remember, in the world of trading, adaptability and informed decisions are key. 🚀💡
#DowJones #MarketUpdate #Microsoft #TechSector #StockMarket #Investing"
Microsoft Hires Sam Altman And Greg Brockman For New AI TeamMicrosoft CEO Satya Nadella hires OpenAI's ex-CEO Sam Altman and ex-president Greg Brockman for its new advanced AI research team.
Microsoft officially hires OpenAI’s ex-CEO Sam Altman and ex-president Greg Brockman to lead a new advanced artificial intelligence (AI) research team. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella made the announcement after OpenAI confirmed hiring Twitch co-founder Emmett Shear as interim CEO. The company will continue to have investments in OpenAI, while getting to know Emmett Shear and OpenAI’s new leadership team.
Microsoft Hires Sam Altman and Greg Brockman
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella took to X on November 20 to officially announce hiring of former OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and president Greg Brockman. They will lead a new advanced AI research team.
Nadella said the company remains committed to partnership with OpenAI and has confidence in the product roadmap. He added “our ability to continue to innovate with everything we announced at Microsoft Ignite, and in continuing to support our customers and partners.” Microsoft will look forward to getting to know Emmett Shear and OpenAI’s new leadership team and working with them.
This is a very good move from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) because we can not overemphazised to the fact that AI is the gateway to web.3.0. Any company leveraging AI for its services and products is a good company to invest in, because in the long run it will succeed.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
MSFT is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Tanks 12% After OpenAI Ousts Sam AltmanOn Friday, November 17, OpenAI – the company behind the widely popular ChatGPT platform, announced the ouster of Sam Altman from the board of directors. This comes as a shock to the broader AI community as Open AI said that they have lost confidence in Altman, who is quite a popular figure in the generative AI space.
Worldcoin (WLD) Price Tanks 12%
Soon as the news came the Worldcoin (WLD) price tanked by a whopping 12% slipping under $2. WLD is the native cryptocurrency of Sam Altman’s WorldCoin project.
Worldcoin acquires users by scanning their irises using its device called Orb. This process generates an “iris code” or “World ID” for users, offering access to the project’s application and creating a “digital passport.” The verification system enables individuals to authenticate their identity, and the assigned iris code prevents the acquisition of multiple identities.
Earlier this year, Sam Altman announced the launch of Worldcoin’s native crypto WLD to incentivize users to sign up for the platform. With multiple signups to Worldcoin, the project has been gaining fast traction that also reflected in the WLD price shooting all the way to $2.5 soon after the launch of July. Also, the listing of Worldcoin (WLD) by some popular exchanges like Binance provided the much-required liquidity boost.
While Sam Altman has been pushing the Digital iris WorldCoin project hard in the market, it continues to face scrutiny. Furthermore, due to the SEC’s security rules, Worldcoin hasn’t launched the WLD crypto in the US.
Worldcoin encountered resistance from countries such as Kenya in August, leading to a suspension of its initiative to scan citizens’ eyes, despite initial directives. Critics argue that the project, which primarily focuses on developing economies, has faced backlash. Participants outside the U.S. and certain other nations receive 25 WLD tokens, approximately valued at $48, upon signing up, raising concerns about potential exploitation.
Tiago Sada, who serves as the head of product for Tools for Humanity and contributes significantly to Worldcoin, defended the distribution of free tokens and the project’s focus on developing countries. He argued that many projects in the crypto and tech industries target emerging markets because they are generally more accessible for operations.
AGiX: $0.17 | Ben Goertzel on a Roadshow Feb 2023 DubaiThe Circus is On in tune with Micorsoft's OPEN ai ChatGPT $29bn valuation
like any coin stock or issue ... when the THEME is on
DEALS pile up to get a piece of the PIE before PUBLIC comes in at 50 100 1000x levels
DCA
and hope to get filled before the Dubai Happenings
Q1 and q3 or 4 is the usual window for Big funds to witness AMAZiNG TECH
Is world coin about to have a major breakout!?! WLDUSDTHello all of my tradingview friends! MAKE SURE YOU FOLLOW AND LIKE for more content!!!
Today i would like to share some technical analysis on worldcoin also known by the ticket WLD.
As we can see there is a pennant that has formed. This pennant has a measured move of +37%
bringing its price up to $3.17 which is where i will be closing my long position. At the bottom i have shared some ALPHA on likely areas to take profits!
KEY SUPPORT - $2.275
A Guide to Trading Bullish and Bearish Pennants
A bearish pennant is a technical trading pattern that indicates the impending continuation of a
downward price move. They're essentially the opposite to bullish pennants: instead of
consolidating after a move up, the market pauses on a significant move down.
BULLISH PENNANTS
Exercise great caution when trading bullish pennants. Research has shown that the success rate
is only 54%. Traders must be cautious when trading bull pennants. Published research reveals a
low success rate of 54% and a meager price increase of 7%.
How Reliable is a Bear Pennant?
Chart Pattern Success Rate Average Price Change
Bearish Pennant 54% +6%
Always trade using the 3 1 trading rule!
To increase your chances of profitability, you want to trade when you have the potential to
1make 3 times more than you are risking. If you give yourself a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, you
have a significantly greater chance of ending up profitable in the long run.
Resistance - $2.44
Resistance - $2.50
Resistance - $2.55
Resistance - $2.90
TOP - $3.17
THANKS LIQUIDMEX!
MSFT Microsoft's ChatGPT VS AMZN Amazon and GOOGL GoogleIf you haven`t bought MSFT here:
Then you should know that in a rapidly evolving digital landscape, Microsoft's strategic acquisition of a 49% stake in OpenAI, the developer of the powerful language model ChatGPT, has positioned the tech giant to potentially challenge market leaders Google (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN). With ChatGPT's advanced natural language processing capabilities, Microsoft is poised to capitalize on the growing demand for intelligent conversational interfaces and revolutionize the way users interact with search engines and online shopping platforms.
Revolutionizing Search and E-Commerce:
One significant advantage of ChatGPT is its potential to transform the search landscape. Users seeking specific information or products can engage in natural language conversations with the chatbot, refining their search queries and receiving highly relevant results. This conversational search experience, powered by ChatGPT's contextual understanding, could entice users to migrate from traditional search engines to Bing, fostering market share growth for Microsoft.
In the realm of e-commerce, the integration of ChatGPT holds tremendous potential. Users could leverage the chatbot to interactively explore product options, compare prices, and access personalized recommendations. By providing a seamless and intelligent shopping experience, Microsoft can challenge Amazon's dominance, especially if concerns over pricing and product origin come into play. Microsoft's commitment to transparency and user control over data privacy may also resonate with consumers who prioritize these factors in their online shopping decisions.
If I had to buy some options, that would be the following Calls:
2024-1-19 expiration date
$350 strike price
$21.85 premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMZN Amazon could lose market share because of ChatGPT If you haven`t sold AMZN here for a profit:
Then you should know that the implementation of a chatbot like ChatGPT, powered by OpenAI's advanced natural language processing capabilities, could indeed provide an opportunity for consumers to find the cheapest price online for the same product. In an era where price comparison and cost-saving measures are highly valued by customers, this feature could be a valuable asset for Bing.
Amazon's reputation for having expensive and overvalued prices has been a topic of discussion among consumers. While Amazon provides a wide range of products and convenient shopping experiences, some users have expressed concerns about the pricing competitiveness on the platform. This presents an opening for Bing to attract cost-conscious consumers who are actively seeking better deals.
Furthermore, the concern over the origin of products, particularly those manufactured in China, has gained attention in recent years. Some consumers prefer to avoid purchasing Chinese-made products due to quality, safety, or political reasons. If Bing can provide a search experience that allows users to filter or identify the origin of products more effectively, it could cater to a segment of consumers who prioritize alternative sourcing.
If I had to buy some options, that would be the following puts:
2024-1-19 expiration date
$105 strike price
$4.10 premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Google vs BingIf you haven`t sold GOOGL here:
Or bought it here:
Then you should know that the investment by Microsoft in OpenAI signifies a significant boost to their artificial intelligence capabilities. OpenAI's advanced technologies and expertise in AI research and development could potentially enhance the capabilities of Microsoft's Bing search engine. With access to powerful AI algorithms and resources, Bing may be able to offer more personalized and accurate search results, thereby attracting users who seek a more refined search experience.
Furthermore, Microsoft has been making strategic moves to expand its presence in various sectors, including cloud computing and enterprise services. By integrating Bing into its ecosystem of products and services, Microsoft can leverage its existing user base and partnerships to promote Bing as a viable alternative to Google.
In recent years, Google has faced scrutiny over data privacy concerns and antitrust issues, which could create an opportunity for Bing to gain traction among users seeking more privacy-focused alternatives. Additionally, Microsoft has been actively investing in marketing and advertising efforts to raise awareness about Bing and improve its market positioning.
While Google currently holds a dominant position in the search engine market, the landscape is dynamic and subject to change. If Microsoft successfully leverages its partnership with OpenAI to enhance Bing's capabilities, coupled with strategic marketing initiatives, it could potentially chip away at Google's market share over time.
If I had to buy some options, that would be the following puts:
2024-1-19 expiration date
$105 strike price
$3.25 premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Generative AI: are we witnessing an iPhone moment?Is ChatGPT the ‘iPhone moment’ for artificial intelligence (AI)? The iPhone catalysed many different things all in one device:
It is hard to remember a time ‘before smartphones’, but the iPhone was only introduced in 2007. Apple is one of the world’s largest companies by market capitalisation, and there are many companies that make smartphones that are also quite large.
It is hard to remember a time ‘before apps’, but there is now a so-called ‘app-economy.’ Spending in iOS and Android apps in 2022 is estimated to be almost HKEX:130 billion1.
Why did the iPhone so successfully change the world? It combined an aura of excitement with an incredibly flexible set of potential future capabilities and an ease of use that competitors in 2007 struggled to match. Today, the iPhone is not even really a device, but rather a key into an ecosystem where many different services can be consumed.
Will ChatGPT become something similar?
It is a bold prediction to say ChatGPT is the next iPhone. It would mean OpenAI has a chance at becoming the world’s most highly valued company by market capitalisation and to stay in that position for numerous years, similar to what Apple has done. Apple created both hardware and software. It is likely that if Apple focused solely on hardware or solely on software, it wouldn’t have been as successful.
Microsoft vs Alphabet
In 2023, ChatGPT is software, and it is also clear the world’s largest companies see the potential value and are acting to capitalise on their slices of the economic pie. Microsoft has been the most direct, investing around HKEX:10 billion directly into OpenAI and indicating the technologies underpinning GPT-4 will be incorporated into programs, like Office 365. If Microsoft charges a small amount more for the Office 365 subscription that includes access to GPT-4, this could equate to tens of billions in incremental annual revenue2.
Alphabet, through its Google platform, is seeking to create its own version of ChatGPT, but it does not seem to be moving as quickly as OpenAI, possibly due to the ‘innovator’s dilemma’, in that no other company has a greater than 90% market share of internet search, so it is tough to imagine Google desiring a new way of doing search3.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was masterful in creating the perception of a possible ‘search war’ before any behaviours actually shifted away from Google search.
Both companies will deploy generative AI into their cloud services, seeking to invigorate growth in this important part of their revenue stream after 2022 posted slower growth than had been seen in prior years. This too could add tens of billions of dollars in incremental annual revenue.
AI’s pie of economic value
On a recent episode of the Lunar Society podcast, posted on 27 March 2023, Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s Chief Scientist, noted AI is going to be increasingly more valuable year after year, and that this could continue exponentially4.
Who will capture all the value created by AI? Being involved with both software and hardware elements, as well as the app store, Apple captured lots of different slices of an ecosystem catalysed by the introduction of the iPhone, as well as maintained its staying power as the environment continued to evolve. In the case of generative AI, the technology that underlies such systems as ChatGPT, we see a catalyst for increased demand for cloud computing. It is not coincidental OpenAI has a significant relationship with the world’s second largest provider of cloud computing infrastructure with Microsoft’s Azure where AI models of this size can be efficiently trained, stored, and run.
All of the cloud infrastructure players, be it Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle, and others, are surely seeking to create an Apple-like ecosystem that is not ‘friction free’ for a user to shift from iOS to Android. The more value-added services provided, the less likely customers would be enticed to switch their provider or bring more of their workload back on premise. They want cloud customers to get used to the cloud computing equivalent of air pods, the i-Watch, Apple TV, etc.
The largest tech-oriented companies in the world are also ramping up their investments5:
In 2022, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft spent HKEX:223 billion on research and development (R&D), up from $109 billion in 2019. This was in addition to $161 billion in capital expenditures (CAPEX)—which represented a tripling in three years.
These five companies were spending roughly 16% of their annual combined revenues on R&D and CAPEX in 2015, which had risen to 26% in 2022.
Meta indicated AI is its biggest investment category and Alphabet is planning to reveal the size of its AI investment for the first time as part of its Q1 2023 earnings announcement.
We also see various partnerships and integrations with ChatGPT being announced, a subset of which we mention here:
Shopify is an interesting use case, where one can ‘Make AI-Powered Store.’ Think of customer service—ChatGPT-powered chatbots do not need to operate in terms of ‘hours’ so it would be possible that Shopify merchants could immediately garner 24/7 customer support6.
Salesforce has referenced technology it is calling ‘EinsteinGPT’, which would combine its proprietary AI with that of outside partners, like OpenAI, to help businesses generate email drafts, customer-account information, and computer code7.
The Coca-Cola company will leverage OpenAI’s generative AI technology for marketing and customer experiences. This includes personalised ad copy, images, and messaging8.
Smaller companies for specialised services & acquisitions
Smaller start-up companies may utilise different large language models as a base, but then allow their users to more easily incorporate a chatbot directly onto their website to help with customer service queries.
In regulated industries, such as financial services, companies can feed past requests and questions, so large language models can ‘read’ and then ‘learn from’ the questions and the responses, thereby readying themselves for the future.
Nuance Communications, for example, was acquired by Microsoft due to its specific expertise in natural language processing related to healthcare services. Medical transcription is a huge, but specific, market.
Bottom line: be ready for diversified value creation across many different industries
When generative AI ultimately is consumed through the cloud computing platforms, the impact will not be limited to any single area of the economy. On 27 March 2023, the Wall Street Journal cited US authorities responsible for antitrust enforcement felt it important enough to mention their intention to protect the AI market from actions that might yet be taken by large incumbents, fearing threats to their dominance in the space9. This is yet another indication this space is a technology with far reaching implications.
Sources
1 Source: Business of Apps
2 Source: McGee, Patrick & Madhumita Murgia. “Microsoft to add AI co-pilot to its Office software suite.” Financial Times. 16 March 2023.
3 Source: “Is Google’s 20-year dominance of search in peril?” Economist. 8 February 2023.
4 Source: Apple Podcast : ilya-sutskever-openai-chief-scientist-building-agi
5 Source: “Big tech and the pursuit of AI dominance.” Economist. 26 March 2023.
6 Source: community shopify ecommerce-marketing chatgpt-for-shopify-store-make-ai-powered-store
7 Source: “Salesforce to add ChatGPT to Slack as part of OpenAI partnership.” Reuters. 7 March 2023.
8 Source: Johnston, Lisa. “Coca-Cola Signs As Early Partner for OpenAI’s ChatGPT, DALL-E Generative AI.” Consumer Goods Technology. 21 February 2023.
9 Source: Wolfe, Jan & Dave Michaels. “FTC Chair Lina Khan Vows to Protect Competition in AI Market.” Wall Street Journal. 27 March 2023.
MSFT $350 AND BEYOND Microsoft has been a big player in the AI industry recently and has been making a lot of buzz lately. Their acquisition of ChatGPT was an strategic play against GOOGLE to position themselves better as a search engine. GOOGLE has been the leader as a search engine but things look like they are changing soon.
Other than that, MSFT has a couple good reasons why it is a good investment:
Established brand and resources: Microsoft is an established technology company with significant resources and a long history of innovation. Its vast network of developers and engineers, coupled with its access to cutting-edge technology and data, could give it a significant advantage in the AI market.
Diversification: By entering the AI market, Microsoft could diversify its revenue streams and reduce its reliance on traditional software products. As AI technology continues to develop and become more ubiquitous, Microsoft's investment in this field could position it for long-term growth and success.
Customer base: Microsoft has a large customer base that includes both consumers and businesses. Its AI technology could be integrated into existing products, such as Office 365 and Azure, providing a seamless experience for customers. This integration could create significant value for both Microsoft and its customers, making it an attractive investment opportunity.