#MATIC/#BTC 60% Entry for Launch+60% TargetAccumulated around 197 to 206Simple and clean Targets.
BTC seems to be taking a sideways action which will provide room for the alts to grow. Breakout is done but the retest is due. If you haven't entered yet, buy within 208 to 213 range. Just place the buy bids (Not financial Advice).
I am saying it again, The retest is due so you might have a chance to enter before it hits the targets.
#Peace
Open Interest
BTC on the Precipice of a Face Melting Move!Open Interest and Historical Volatility Percentile (HPV) signatures suggest BTC is about to see a 20%, or larger, move within the next two weeks (potentially very soon). HPV is was at 1 yesterday at is at 6 today. This move could easily propel us to low-mid 8K level or to the 11K-12.5K area.
Check this chart to see what type of moves we saw in the past with similar Open Interest and HPV readings! Put on your big boy pants, we are about to go for a ride!
If BTC closes below $9550, then the probability of this incoming move is more bearish. If we close above $10,400, then the probability that this move is bullish is much higher. These are key pivot points.
Have fun and let's get this crypto!
Open Interest: 1.495m (up from 1.407b yesterday)
HPV: 6 (up from 1 yesterday)
Please give a thumbs up if you found this information informative and helpful!
WTI - 2020/02/10 - Open Interest by contract, 2018-2020compare WTI Open Interest for Mar-Apr-Jun-Sept-Dec contracts along 2018-2019-2020 years
Margin Trading: Longs, Shorts and Open Interest on BitfinexWhat can margin traders' behavior - arguably, ' smarter ' money-, tell us about current state of trends? Maybe some interesting things. Let's see:
First, Open Interest (bottom pane). It represents all longs and shorts open at any given time, in Bitfinex. Its all time high (ATH) happened during the very bottom of last bear market: December 14, 2018.
Shorts were in ecstasy, having piled up for an almost year-long period, starting January 19 (smaller dotted green line in Short's pane), and very close to their 5 times visited, previous ATH (thicker dotted red line, same pane).
Longs, also, were very close to their previous ATH (thicker dotted red line in Long's pane, starting March 25). After some disillusionment(?) (downtrend channel), margin bulls started accumulating a month before 6k level breakdown. It looks they never felt bothered with an almost 50% drop. It seems they liked it, in fact. Of course they did! Whales' plays.
Accumulation concluded February, 17 2019 (end of red dotted line in Long's pane), when prices started rising. Distribution instantly commenced as well. Something key, however, happened at the same time: the definitive breakdown from first overall open interest uptrend channel (see bottom pane again). More on this later on.
On the way to the new 13.8k lower high, old shorts helped fuel the rise initially. And new ones as well, once frustrated after 6k and 9k levels were breached. Between swings, longs also contributed again too. But, remember Open Interest? Kept falling all the way through, inside a new down channel which became clearly visible.
Open interest all time low (ATL) came 17 days after 13.8k high, on July 12, 2019.
It's worth noticing the huge short claim / settling transaction which took place on June 29, as well - presented, in this study, in a custom view of an enhanced vol. indicator . Probably not a coincidence, near last open Interest previous ATL, form December 30, 2017. Interesting, huh?
From then on, we've been witnessing a new bear market.
Noticeable aspects since then:
Shorts remain inside their downward channel, and have not piled up during this fall , as happened during the previous one. At most, they moved almost sideways some times. Still, they just renewed their ATL (as of the moment of this writing).
Longs, instead, behaved similarly to previous bear market - but less aggressively, until..
Bulls jumped onboard margin longs in a way never seen before , starting November 21, 2019, bringing the ticker to a new ATH , and, as of December 1st, out of Open Interest's downward channel . What is it that they know? Wish I knew.
But what we can see is that there was a clear breakout from a long-time rising triangle in margin longs . Shapes work here too, it seems.
Another "coincidence": last recent Open Interest top happened at the same price level as the previous Open Interest ATH (April 10, 2018).
To conclude, what suppositions can we make with somewhat decent level of reason here? Maybe these:
If Open Interest continues its path towards a new upward channel while price manages to break out from current downtrend as well, we can see a great new bull market take shape.
Still, there are way less short positions open to fuel the uptrend now.
There are lots of longs open. If bull rally fails, these whales (or could it be only one?) may not want or be able to hold, and trigger a massive sell-off. So, yes, we're standing over a huge crate of dynamite. So...
...trade wisely. Lose little. Stay in the game.
PhinkTrande
Gold,2018-2020 compare Open Interest by contracts (Feb/Apr/Jun)compare Feb, April June contracts' Open Interest in Gold for years 2018 2019 2020
+ CFTC COT Open Interest
Open Interest Weiss Wave bars and Money Flow Index. (Naldo)archive #2
Amazing work by Naldo!
Open Interest vs. Volume: An Overview
Volume and open interest are two key measurements that describe the liquidity and activity of contracts In the options and futures markets. However, their meanings and applications are different. Volume refers to the number of contracts traded in a given period, while open interest denotes the number of active contracts.
Volume
Trading volume measures the number of options or futures contracts being exchanged between buyers and sellers, identifying the level of activity for that particular contract. For every buyer, there is a seller, and the transaction itself counts toward the daily volume .
Open Interest
Open interest indicates the number of options or futures contracts that are held by traders and investors in active positions. These positions have not been closed out, expired, or exercised. Open interest decreases when holders and writers of options (or buyers and sellers of futures ) close out their positions. To close out positions, they must take offsetting positions or exercise their options. Open interest increases once again when investors and traders open new long positions or writers/sellers take on new short positions. Open interest also increases when new options or futures contracts are created.
Options or futures contract trading volume can only increase while open interest can either increase or decrease. While trading volume indicates the number of contracts that have been bought or sold, open interest identifies the number of contracts that are currently held.
Reference : www.investopedia.com
*** Worked to define all futures . You can look them in codes (between line : 13 to line 94 )
** CAUTION 1 : Since each instrument in the list has its own unique contract data, you must first enter its name to display it. I recommend you to select OANDA from the markets. Finally, when the COT reports are issued, it may repaints. However, this repaint is usually close to closing or after close .(When COT reports are so sharp ) So use this script only 1W ( 1 week ) or 1 M ( 1 month ) timeframe.
** CAUTION 2 : This data is taken to Tradingview with the help of Quandl. This is a tremendous possibility, but the system will not work if there is a malfunction.
So, resistance is here. What can we expect now?Hi there, traders!
So, resistance came quite around anticipated level, producing downward swings to upcoming fractal structures (represented by colored averages on 305 mins chart).
First average (pink) couldn't manage to hold two succeeding attacks, letting price break past it, as well as nearby uptrend line. A clear weak attempt to test pushing price back above it resulted in a sharp rejection. Noticeable also ware margin traders' activities (Bitfinex): a considerable amount of longs closed (also shorts) -- resulting in a decreasing open interest.
As of this moment, it's reasonable to expect a visit to second moving average (light blue), around 7600 level, followed by some consolidation, and a potential pullback. Still, some good amount of doubt is reasonable as to wether BTCUSD will manage to break above trend line (TL) again, from this range -- let alone overcome dark blue average. If it does, frontier targets lie around 8500-600 and 8900.
Supporting this scenario is that it seems there is more steam arriving, implied by yellow average appearing below orange one, at around 7200 level. Another sign of a likely uptrend recovery and a top retest attempt is oscillator line (currently black) nearing up-trending magenta average.
Attention points:
Marked areas;
Touch to averages and horizontal lines;
Touch to uptrend line (dotted blue);
Any relevant margin activity, specially large claims (detected by margin enhanced volume indicator ).
Trade wisely. Stay in the game.
PhinkTrande
Price Trend & Margin Open Interest: Confluence, DivergenceHi there!
Here a brief, complementary view on the topic covered in previous study (based on Bitfinex margin trades). (Red spikes in volume area are claim transactions. See previous study.)
This time I'm not bringing any particular analysis up-front. Rather, I'd like to suggest a collaboration between us, interested traders.
So, what do you infer from this information?
Please leave your comments.
This can sure become an interesting conversation.
See you.. Tks!
PhinkTrade
GBPUSD Price levels from CME till December 13Hey friends,
On the chart you will see the boundaries where price will move untill December 13
What we can expect:
1- Price will stay in boundaries
2- If price will break any CME OI level, with 80% by the end of the expiration day it will pullback to them!
Also stay in touch to get Daily and Weekly Levels,
Soon i will add levels for 3 month and one month Levels from CME using data from daily bulletin!
This levels is really strong and hold the price
#Bitcoin mid-term / Where is the bottom? / Levels to watch!#Bitcoin mid-term prediction
Trend is still re-setting from $14k pump.
I'm using recent price action > old price action - therefore $6xxx levels are mostly ignored. CME price inefficiency in these levels adds confluence to this view.
$5100s is the definitive bottom for me.
Ton of confluence packed into one level:
- Double monthly VWAP
- Price inefficiency fill
- 200 wMA
Price dumped through $7350s trapping a lot of longs (liquidity). Now if price "were" to go back to this level I would 100% look to short. HARD.
Open interest (Bitmex) is still not showing anything bullish. Keeping stable and increasing.
What this means:
> Few shorts taking profit
> New blind longs opening
Funding is about to spike negative for the first time in a while - bulls should get some rest here shortly.
Keep updated by following me here and on Twitter: @MacNBTC
Fundamentally technical long on AUD/USD We can see accumulation of long positions in blue square ( sell stops being hunted for liquidity, price bouncing off a range and no new lows being made), than thrust of price upwards.
Than pull back in which we are at the moment.
OI : Falling interest rates of aud/cad in last day suggest that falling trend we are in is coming to an end.
COT : Steady rise in long positions of big investors (smart money)
I will try to take long on 0.67500 level and hold it for 100 pips, meaby reduce position after first 50 pips,
Sl 30 pips
wish me good luck ;)
Playing against the large 300 level Call WallFor expiration September 20th we have a very large call wall at 300 in $SPY and 3000 SPX. We're shorting here with a stop just above. Considering FOMC next week as well we think its a good place to sell some upside premium or scalp some shorts down to 297.5/295 support. Because the market is long a long of gamma we don't see a large selloff materializing before the FOMC.
Downside risk outweights upsideNo idea which direction comes after the Fed today but based on the options market it appears that any negative news will be met with strong selling by options dealers and could make a large move down possible. Good news could see a decent rally, but there is resistance forming at 2950 and larger resistance at 3000. In other words it appears that a chance of a move down of >1% outweighs the odds of a move up over >1%.
Markets Cant Move Above Volatility TriggerMarkets had to hold 2920 to break the volatility cycle from last week. Under that level market makers will amplify and selloff. The fact that the market buyers couldnt overcome just a bit of dealer selling isn't great. FOMC minutes Wednesday and Jackson Hold starting Friday.
XBT has more to goTTH has been waiting for a strong rise in a third of third fashion in the Elliott wave principles . Here came this rise, confirming our previous wave count. If correct, we are in the midst of a sustained rise with more up/down sequences to come before the wave is completed, i.e show an advance of 5 waves. As for a longer view, we need higher levels to claim a noteworthy bottom is in place. For now we can only suspect it is the case. Keep looking higher after short term sideways. As shown by the CME commitment of traders , large spec and levergaed funds are net short, thus allowing short covering and long positioning to drive prices higher.
The TTH team is pleased to announce the grand opening of its Slack team . You will share trading ideas with our community, improve your trading skills, benefit from live intraday technical analysis and strategies. Video sessions with TA teaching and concrete cases are on the agenda too.
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[XBTUSD] Battle is Coming...The shorts and big buyers both wish for a drop in the price of bitcoin.
Shorts want to win their battle in the futures market, all the futures in crypto market now are just gambling in the price which is easy to be manipulated. They have enough power and motivation to dump the price.
While big buyers want to buy more cheap bitcoins, the more the better.
Open interest in BitMex future contracts is high enough now. The market has gained enough momentum to make a big movement.
Realtime Open Interest charts see: www.dprating.com
Battle is Coming. Are you ready?
Is GE Open Interest tipping the hat?Noticed that Dec 21, $10 calls have an open interest of over 90k!
Last time I saw that much option at one price point was at the end of October for $10.50 puts, and look how that turned out.
Someone out there feels pretty confident, and at $0.02 it is cheap enough for me to follow the crowd again.
2018/10/12 E-mini S&P 500 Price/vol/OINext day after 200 MA breakdown
Price Down
Volume Up
Open Interest UP
= new shorts enetring mkt?
2018/09/18 Platinum Open interest and priceOI going up with price, since it touched its overall minimum, lower than Jan 2016
2018/09/11 Gold COT : Totals by category (Lon+Sho+Spr) vs MM2018/09/11 It seems that MM are getting into shorts heavily, while still at their maximum in terms of total contracts.
So they are not exactly exiting gold for better opportunities. But they are a fast reacting category, so I see this as an opportunistic position of them, that might change rapidly. To watch
2018/08/23 E-MINI &P500 Cftc OI & Asset Managers LO/SHE-MINI &P500, Cftc Open Interest & Asset Managers LO/SH (%)
The system is one, the results are different. Why?The system is one, the results are different. Why?
It is checked by practice - if several traders (approximately the same level) work on the same system, the results will be completely different. Why? Psychology with problems of a personal character comes to the fore. People have different psychotypes, different attitudes to risks, different measures of responsibility for results, different levels of perception of the current state of the market. The same "pain threshold" for drawdown is individual. Therefore, in the process of training, along with the description of the trading system, more attention is paid precisely to the analysis of each student of personal statistics. Only personal statistics suggest the strengths and weaknesses of each trader. For example, one is excellent at trading in the first half of the session, by the end of the day the results are falling. Another may be better able to trade on VSA patterns or technical analysis, but the levels and clusters are bad.
On a large amount of data (sufficient statistical sampling) and doing performance analysis with correction of the rules of trade for everyone. Knowing your strengths and weaknesses is simply bound to improve your trading. Even the introduction of the rule-just DO NOT TRADE what more often causes a loss of 100% will lead to an increase in the expectation. And to trade ONLY their statistically profitable situations))).
No countless "magic" systems and indicators, multiple viewing of video trades of other professionals (they know their advantages, and you do not own) will not give a positive result. Therefore, working on yourself is the cornerstone of profitable trade.
All good and right decisions!
Now the bitcoin is a bearish divergence on open interest.
The hidden divergence on CMO has worked successfully.
XVG They waited! All conditions of profitPreviously, we predicted the rollback of the price of XVG, we opened a short position and held on to our chairs, against the backdrop of news about XVG's cooperation with a large site, the price began to grow continuously, magically reached the line of the broken trend and rolled back just as quickly as it came. The reason for the rollback is the partner XVG is not Amazon, and the porn site. But everything so magically coincided that people who know the market easily traced the actions Smart.
Watching these events, I was in anticipation of a good rollback and the opportunity to enter the market.
Now the situation is in the decision zone, but yesterday I saw a spoof in the glass, and I saw that a long position was chosen, I ventured to go a quarter of the sum. Today, the price overcame the reference level by 30 m and I was added to the position, placing the stop order at 0.06 ....
Now the fast EMA broke through the middle, but they are still under EMA 50, so now there is a risky entry into the market.
Downgrades, smart dials the position and price, as the spring soon breaks
Just yesterday, there were divergences on the CMO, that I was just pissed off
Rsi twice came to the same level and rebounded, the story says that this is a strong level, you can consider this rebound as a double bottom
If it's very crooked to see, you can see the figure of the double bottom on the XVG, which together with the touch of the control point and the trend line on the low gives good signals and possibilities.
This is a rather risky deal, since the market leader is without price rollbacks and is currently stuck, but technically this is a tasty morsel. I decided to take a chance and not in any way dictate what to do to you, you decide, and while I'm sitting in position
I invite you to read our indicators of open interest, links are attached)
