Nifty Media Index - Operator Play1. On Jan 23, 2024 - Nifty Media Index Fell 11.25% 👆👆👆 and during my Analysis I mentioned that it's a FAKE Breakdown on Weekly or On Monthly
2. Now, Look at the latest Chart of Nifty Media - Comparison of Monthly (Left) Vs Daily (Right) timeframes
During Jan - Media Index fell below the Bullish Ascending Triangle's Trendline. Usually Monthly close is considered strong confirmation, but since the entire Bullish Triangle was being formed at Monthly level, then we need to test Breakout / Breakdown at Quarterly Levels ONLY
1. All Channels were expecting Media Index to Blast during Mar - Apr - either due to Election Campaigns or IPL viewership - But Operators had other idea. They crashed the Media index continually for 3 months (Jan - Mar) - resulting in Quarterly Chart level Breakdown below Trendline
2. In April - the index recovered a bit, but took resistance at Trendline
3. In May - the Index fell again - which confirms the famous Breakdown - Retest - Fall Pattern
4. Jun 4 started with another mega Crash, but if June as well closes below the Trendline then its a Quarterly Confirmation of Breakdown which means MAJOR Correction
But nothing was wrong in Media Sector to face a Correction of this Magnitude + Modi was back in Power - so Crash had to be Stopped - and Operators had less than 1 month to prevent the Crash
Result: Post the Election Results day - the Operators hurried and pumped in Millions into Media Sector to ensure the index came right inside the Trendline
Now look at the Daily Chart - After a Mega Blast from June 4 to Jun 12 - the Price came within the Trendline and then Operators gave up and price started slowly easing down back to the Trendline to take support from inside
This is the Reason - why I posted the Gif file this morning highlighting a Running Race where the Media index came within the Finish Line and started Gasping for breath
Since today marks the End of a Quarter - the Fake Breakdown created during previous Quarter had to be recovered by Hook-or-Crook - now that the recovery is done - there is no more money being pumped into and the stock was expected to fall back to support level and hence I said FLAT to Mild Negative
Its a Long Storyline - Its a Huge Operator Game, but if any of us is able to Decode this strategy - then we don't have to be afraid of Operators ever again
Please share your views - Does this analysis makes sense ? Do you get a sense of how game is played over a Long time ? We need to be expert at Connecting the Dots to become Millionaires in this Cheating World
Operators
Operator Game in HDFC Bank HDFC Bank in the Month of Jan had a Major Crash falling from 1712 levels to 1363 and it broke down below Long Term Parallel Channel
Around Jan last week - RBI directed LIC to take a big stake in HDFC bank, but there was absolutely no reaction in the price and it was still sustaining below the Parallel Channel
Price later took support at 1363 in the Month of Feb and triggered a retracement, but the increase in Mar and April was still not enough to bring the price inside the Parallel Channel
Time passed till June - now its 2nd Quarter close below Trendline if HDFC DOES NOT recover inside the channel
After Election - PSU Banks were expected to Rally, Defence and Railways were expected to Rally. Defence and Railways did rally for 2 weeks but stopped right after
PSU banks - never took off - but Operators played a beautiful game by Stopping the funding to Defence, Railways, and other Small & Mid Caps and PUMPED in all the Money into HDFC which triggered a massive Rally on Nifty Private Bank Index
Though there was NO Special NEWS on Private Bank sector - Why did it Rally suddenly ??? No New Investments, No messages from FM - then why ?
Just To bring up HDFC money was pumped in and when a high tide comes it moves even a Stalled ship - similarly other Private Banks caught fire along with HDFC (Collateral Benefit)
So - why did I say today morning that Private Banks & Particularly HDFC will be FLAT to Mild Negative ????
Because....
1. HDFC came safely with the Parallel Channel - no more push required
2. HDFC met its previous ATH resistance 1712 and after a massive rally - I knew for sure they won't pump more to Breakout of the resistance
Remember the Pump in was done to SAVE HDFC not to Breakout ATH
The entire Private Bank Index was brought up JUST TO SAVE HDFC - Understand the Game now ? Next Week HDFC will fall - which will pull down Bank Nifty, Private Bank index more - Its NOT a correction but rather "GASPING for AIR" after a Hussain Bolt Sprint
Now that no more money would be pumped into Private Banks, the focus would shift again towards Defence, Railways and Green Energy next week
Was I able to Connect the Dots 2 Quarters before to what is happening on the ground till date ?
I don't need to watch any News Channels / paper / Media / Fundamentals - Just by keeping Track of Charts and How Market Moves - I can decode such a long Operator Game
How does this sound ??? Like my analysis ? Please do share your opinion
