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Opinion

SPY looking a little orangeWe made it back into gap resistance and stalled just like last week. This looks like a potentially really good double-top opportunity and I am personally short with 380 puts for 7/15 and 370 puts for 7/22. The one thing to watch for is if bulls can keep the buying pressure up. If they can accumulate and keep in the resistance zone for a long period of time the "fear-factor" will start to fade and they can break out. So I have both of my predictions on here Blue is the bullish path and Orange is the Bearish path. Personally I think the orange is more tempting but that is just my opinion on my own tea leaves. Also some indicators are looking overbought and the CPI report looks like it may be above 8% Although less than May's 8.6% it may cause more bearish sentiment once the market understand we are in for another 75 pt rate hike.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
SPY looking to Retest LowI drew some lines on the chart. The yellow one is from our drop in January which I made into a channel, price seems to be constrained in it for now. The purple lines represented the gap fill and where there was some resistance, It looks like we couldn't quite clear above it confidently and so we ended up crashing down well below it today. I think we will probably aim to retest the low. Adjustments / new estimates to last quarters GDP come out tomorrow and I expect they may be slightly lower than what was originally reported. I drew blue lines where I see some support, I think that if we do stall at the blue bars we may end up painting a double bottom which would be a good sign to go bullish. Otherwise we will go down to the yellow line at the bottom of the channel. I think we bounce off of that, if not it would be a total collapse. This is just my art project.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
How far can the Bulls go?Let the bulls try it. Many are swing trading this stuff and will take profit once we are no longer oversold. in my opinion the chart looks ugly, it would be very beautiful if it had some more candles on its downside. We just came down Hard. We need some cushion for our bullish runway. We cracked the overhead resistance today, But then were immediately pushed back into gap-resistance. There was no capitulation by the bears. Good luck yall. Just my opinion
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
Big Tuesday: Flush potentialWe hit resistance in a big way around 396-397 this was right at gap from last week and we were rejected. This makes me feel like we are not yet ready to start climbing up. I plotted this resistance zone in the Yellow lines. We need to break up through there before we get moving. There is also that vertical resistance that is looming above which I have drawn in red. Tomorrow is a big day for the bulls. They need to break into the 400s and hold the day confidently. If they do that then 420s may be possible, This is depicted by the upper blue trendline. If we hit the red trendline and fail to crack 399 I do think we will be retesting the blue trendline towards 375. Personally I am short. Today did not inspire much confidence, we basically finished the gap up and stalled. This is just my opinion
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
3
SPY: Room for upside and then back downWell it looks like the result was as expected. A 50 pt basis increase which caused the market to relax and "price in" the rate hike just like last time. Now we go back up. The timing of it is a bit sharper than last month. Previously we got a rate hike and needed to wait and entire month before the CPI told us that rates needed to rise faster than expected. This time we will get CPI on May 11th (It will be around 8%). The fix is in on inflation. You see April of 2021 had very little inflation so the inflation rate of April won't be that different from march since prices have not really changed. In May & June we will start to see those inflation numbers head down (assuming prices don't rise from here) April will have high CPI. I really do think it all coincides nicely with the blue line I have drawn on the channel and that yellow line which shows Horizontal resistance. We also cracked got above 50 on the 4 hour RSI which usually signals some bullish behavior if temporary. This causes me to feel we are going to stay bullish until around 440 and then once the new CPI numbers come in and everyone realizes we have another 50 pt hike coming in June the downward price movement will come again. I personally have a 400-375-350 spread expiring on Jun 17th. I plan to add another short butterfly spread maybe 420-375-330 or something a little more conservative like 430-385-340 once we get near 435-440 (I might honestly add both depending on how the chart looks). TLDR: Some more upside ahead as bulls push this thing, and then back down we go probably aiming towards the 375 support if we crack 400. Just my art project. Good luck out there.
AMEX:SPY
by MikeSpy
SPY head and shoulders on weekly closeWe ended up breaking into the 460s but It looks like the juice is starting to run out for the bulls. They may drag this on for a while still but the weekly is showing the pattern fairly clean when you look at where we closed. I feel April will continue its bearish trend down to 420s and that is where I have my PUTs targeting for 4/29. I am not adding much fluff to the chart because I feel like this looks clean enough just looking at the candles. The stems are longer towards the upside (which means a lot of buyers got burned) and the stems trend downward. We may push upward again but I don't see us breaking into 460, I see us maybe breaking into 453-454 (This would be the production of a stem similar to these last 2 weeks) But I do feel we will end the week around 440. If the pattern becomes obvious the market could always capitulate early and we could drop to low 430s. I wouldn't mind it but bulls have been stubborn so I wouldn't get my hopes up. This is just my artwork.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
Spy Looking to form Head and Shoulders.I kept the old line I drew from our last drop, I feel it will act as a strong support in any downward channel. The red line is drawn from todays rejections. We made 2 desperate jumps to the upside in order to breach the yellow line I drew previously. Both of these failed and were met with a bearish drag down in price. I see it as a nice head and shoulders pattern. I expect us to complete the rounding top that we are currently in next week and float around 445-452. If we stay under that red line it will confirm our downward path in my eyes. If we breach the rounding top and head into 454-456 then we may have to wait a while longer for the downtrend to resume. I have some puts expiring 4/18 and 4/29. April is usually a strong month for stocks. But the last 2 weeks have seen us pour on 8% of gains. I do not think this will be your standard April. I expect before we climb we will need to clear that red line I have drawn and move well above it to end the day. Hope you enjoyed the artwork.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
Could Netflix fall to 250?I see this being a dead cat bounce. Netflix is bleeding subscribers, raising prices and adding restrictions on users. The pandemic is ending and I see the price returning around where it was prior to the release of Disney Plus. Streaming is much more popular these days but there are a ton of competitors out there. Netflix is not the only big dog anymore. At this point a Netflix subscription costs almost as much as a gym membership and people have been cooped up for a long time. This is just my opinion from looking at the chart and some macro economics.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by MikeSpy
Wishful thinking: Mutant H&SI am honestly about 60% sure on this one, I personally have some 420 puts expiring this week (OUCH) decided against closing and looking at the futures I am seeing some potential for a downside. CPI is tomorrow which looks like it might be higher than expected. We hit resistance and didn't break through it, we actually closed the normal day of trading with a sell off but it was not devastating. Futures have not cleared us any higher. We will see in the coming days. They say to judge a Head and Shoulder as if your child had that for a profile... guess this baby is a mutant. Not financial advice obviously.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MikeSpy
SPY heading into Bear Market territoryI am inventing a new term for January-March I will call it a Bi-Polar 3 black crows. The usual black crows have a large body and small wicks. The bodies on these candles are mostly within bounds to be considered black crows and are fairly large, but the wicks are massive towards the downside. One would normally consider a large wick to be a slightly bullish indicator, but this is not at all the case in our scenario. That is why I call it a Bi-Polar 3 black crows. The market is split on its call, so much hope in media and "buy the dip" mentality as well as patriotism "Russia's economy is crashing, that means ours will thrive" Of course we are in a global economy, War is bad for business (And more importantly lives), sanctions impact us all. The Bears know this and have shoved hard to the downside. These giant wicks mean that bears pushed the price lower and bears bought it up, yet it looks like at the end of March we may end up lower after all. For this to happen it means a tremendous amount of effort was spent by bulls buying that dip. A lot of powder was used and it seems that the bulls were pushed down anyway. Bulls are losing steam while bears are driving. With Inflation continually rising, uncertainty with Russia (a major exporter of Oil & Fertilizer) expect to see rapid inflation of critical middle class goods. We are not a yacht economy, the everyday person will feel this squeeze and will need stop investment or even worse sell into a bear market to pay bills. Can we really expect the money printer to be turned back on? I am thinking it will be politically infeasible, especially after the last round of printing seemed to benefit the corporate lobby more than blue collar workers. I am not trying to be to political, but it appears to me that with rising prices the idea of turning on the printer will be met with much skepticism. It looks like austerity is going to be the method chosen to resolve this crisis. I expect we will stay in this blue channel for a while as we perform a retracement from our "Covid-Bull-Market" I Consider the white line to be the white flag for the bulls. If we hit that target SPY will have dropped 20% which is the official signal for a bear market. This is all tea leaves. Good luck to everyone.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
SPY: Let the Bears RunWe finally touched down on that 450 mark and busted straight through to 446. In my humble opinion the most dreaded candle pattern has started forming on the monthly. November: Shooting-Star January: Bearish Engulfing What do these candles mean? In November buyers were very excited about the bull market, money was flowing and profits were being made. on the Monday leading up to Black Friday SPY got pushed up to 473 in all the excitement and expectation. Omicron hit, sales were lower than expected, rate hike fears kicked in. All those buyers experienced instant regret and the market plunged to 456 and closed at its lowest point signaling the decline leading into December. This is the Shooting Star pattern. In December after some jostling for position then came the Santa Rally. Bulls had their wallets at the ready, and they bought up that dip. They kept buying until the market hit even new highs of 479. January so far has taken out all of the gains made in December and has brought us to a new low. Bulls who doubled down in December are feeling defeated, not only could they not keep the rally afloat after December seemed to give them signs of life, but the market is even lower than it was at the November "bottom". Everyone who bought the dip, Everyone who contributed to the Santa Rally has been thoroughly punished by this market move. This is the Bearish Engulfing. The question is, If Black Friday and Christmas have been disappointing for the market where is the hope for the bulls? Valentines Day rally? These are all just my opinions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
SPY forming a head and shouldersIt looks like our recovery from the previous trip to 450 has painted a head and shoulders pattern. This is pretty bearish. I added some blue lines stemming from the peak rejections to indicate where we may be headed (450 retest). In the previous case we needed to clear the line and the end the day confidently above it for us to begin a recovery, I expect it will be similar this time. shoutout to piscitear who spotted this forming yesterday. This is all my opinion/art project.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
3
What the heck is SPY doing?On Monday Spy broke the trendline on the downside again, but it quickly recovered and ended the day above it. Today we smacked on that old resistance from November 22nd around 473 and began trickling down. No real new info, covid is still covid. Inflation is still a problem, rate hikes are still coming, global market disruptions continue. Innovation churns along. What is drawn: The Red Line If there is a market dump to end January and we hit the dreaded 449 it will have been a shooting-star into bearish engulfing for the months of Nov, Dec, Jan. This will be a strong signal that the bull market is likely over and a heavy correction is on the way. The White Rounding Top I feel the market is in a rounding top, I expect if SPY hits this line it will retrace (Pattern is broken once the day ends over the marking). Yellow Downside Trendline Spy seems to respect this trendline, If SPY ends a day below this trendline it may result in a retest of The Red Line. This is all my opinion
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
3
Zooming in on SPYZooming in a bit, I added some lines where I felt they belonged. I wonder if we will break out of the rounding top I have drawn or if we will break this channel. The market always surprises me. In My Opinion, I feel that there will be a lot of tepidly good news coming out to try and keep the market up, but once the rate hikes are in we start to drop. many companies are under their 200 EMA and mostly tech giants have propped up the index. actable good news on covid could always take us to the upside. These are just my opinions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
Is history going to repeat? BTC/USDTHi all, Bitcoin shows me a pattern that looks suspiciously like the pre-announcement of the dip in May. I don't like to predict the market myself, so I'm definitely not going long or short based on this information. However, these are indicators for me to be alert. What corresponds to May? 1 and 2 have already been implemented. Possible scenario 1 It may be that price drops even further. if that happens, then I shift the Fibonacci with it. If not then the 0.61 - .81 zone is interesting for me to keep an eye on. This zone corresponds to the decrease earlier in November. This is also an area where manipulation can arise for long contracts. Only when this happens I will look at an opportunity to go short. Price action on lower timeframes is important here Possible scenario 2 Scenario 1 is currently predicting the market. As I mentioned, I do not enter into trades based on this current data. We need a lot more data to explain future rises or falls. Another scenario is that we see a temporary consolidation and then rise further in the longer-term trend. What is your view on bitcoin?
by MerijnTrades
1
Long🟢Symmetric Triangle-Breakout, Descending Channel (Bullish)Neuro-Fuzzy AI identified positive breakout on Symmetric Triangle. Symmetric Triangle is a neutral pattern. Positive breakout signals bullish option until Triangle top. The triangle top would be ATH, in this case. Deep Learning Pattern Matching drew a descending channel around the current price. Descending channel is a bullish pattern. Potential positive breakout until the top of the channel. #1 TP: Channel Top, $64k. #2 TP: Triangle Top, ATH. God's luck copy trading!
Long
by Elysian_Mind
2