Can BTC Reversals Be Predicted Using BTC.D and LTC?!I recently stumbled upon an interesting correlation regarding BTC.D and LTC.
For those who are unfamiliar with these symbols, BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) is the ratio of the total market cap of BTC versus the market cap of the entire cryptocurrency market and LTC (Litecoin) is one of the first altcoins to gain in popularity (often it is mistaken as the first altcoin, but that distinction technically goes to Namecoin).
What is interesting is that when one maps out the inverse of the ratio of BTC.D to Litecoin, one gets an interesting horizontal parallel channel (represented by blue lines) that has predicted reversals fairly accurately for nearly the past 5 years.
Note how when the ratio gets near near the top of the channel, a top is in for bitcoin indicating a reversal downward. What is also interesting is when the ratio gets near the bottom of the channel, a bottom is near for bitcoin indicating a reversal upward.
Litecoin has commonly been considered to be in lockstep with Bitcoin since its creation, but the trend has actually been trending downward since Litecoin's inception causing this interesting relationship.
What is concerning is the price has just recently reached near the bottom of the channel once again during the recent price drops.
Will this trend continue is anyone's guess, but I figured it was interesting enough to point out and rather beautiful in its symmetry as well.
What I do know is you should NOT take this as trading advice in any way whatsoever. This is not financial advice and is solely my opinion.
But also, please like if you also find this idea interesting or comment with your thoughts as well.
Opinionnotadvice
BTC divergence/resistance at 54K FibonacciBTC looks to have reversed (at least temporarily) after demonstrating some reversal trends (see my previous posts). However, there is still a bit of resistance on the horizon in my opinion.
For the current price action, BTC looks to have come close to the downside channel's top (red lines) near some strong Fibonacci resistance from the original 43K bottom retracement (which it looks like this current dip has greatly respected those Fibonacci levels). However, as BTC approaches the channel top, it is now showing some hidden bearish continuation divergence (yellow dotted line). Hence it looks like it is more likely to be rejected in the short term at or slightly above the current price.
However, the daily trend is starting to turn positive for bitcoin, so it is quite possible that after a few dips, the price might continue out of the channel. However, if the reversal trend continues, there is still a bit of downward potential in the current descending channel down to near 40-44K. If the latter case occurs, there are some good potential patterns that can arise, such as a double bottom or a shark pattern, however, it is far too soon to tell if any of these might be the case. However, with weekly MACD crossing negatively, one shouldn't rule out these as possibilities.
As always, consider this as just my opinion and not advice, but please like or comment if you agree or a see anything to the contrary.
BTC Bullish Cypher w/ Bullish Divergence!!!There looks to be a nice bullish cypher pattern forming on the BTC daily chart indicating a potential reversal is in play. This looks further confirmed by hidden bullish divergence on both MACD and RSI indicating a continuation in the ascending channel (green dotted lines).
If this plays out, I will add on additional details as to the rules of the cypher pattern for anyone looking for it in the future, but the harmony of the current pattern looks very promising. Note that although I have often seen some rules of the cypher pattern vary, particularly for the AC and BD retracements, I tried to make an extra emphasis where there is strong consistency for the numbers I pointed out.
As always, no pattern is guaranteed, so a continuation in the current descending channel (red lines) is still possible with potential for the dip extending further as time progresses (from roughly 43-46K based on when a dip would occur if a dip does occur). However, currently price action has a potential to continue upward toward the Fibonacci retracement levels (as indicated on the right) if the cypher pattern holds.
Although note to please not take any of this as advice, as I am just indicating what I see, not recommending any setups, particularly with the recent volatility.
But please like or comment if you agree, see any mistakes, or have any counterarguments. Thanks!
BTC ascending triangle forming?BTC has continued to show its resistance from a further plummet for about a day now. From what I can tell in my opinion (as always, never advice), BTC price looks to potentially be forming a bullish ascending triangle in the short term (solid green lines) right around a Fibonacci resistance level from the last dip.
If the trend continues with a candlestick close above around 51.177K, that would also give a nice dragonfly doji on the daily chart, potentially indicating a reversal for at least a few days. There has also been some bullish reversal divergence (green line on MACD), so this too could continue indicating a reversal.
Nothing is guaranteed however, and a breakdown from the current support (green line) could easily break downward toward 44-46K (as indicated by the red channel support trend line). And even if a breakout upward does occur, there are still quite a few layers of resisting trend lines around 52.5K (near the dotted yellow trend line) and strongly near 54K (near the red line representing upper descending channel's resistance).
It should be interesting how it turns out, but please like if you agree or leave me a comment if you see any mistakes or see anything to the contrary as your opinion is always welcome.
OMG bounce with bullish divergence?OMG looks to be approaching a good opportunity for a bounce off of a previous trend line right around the long term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement area. This looks like it might be confirmed by hidden bullish divergence on both RSI and MACD for a continuation of the bullish trend.
I recently published as well how there was a double bottom for OMGBTC that looks to still be possible for a breakout with strong potential resistance afterward. If indeed there is a bounce and potential breakout, it could be some fairly positive news for OMG over the next few weeks. However, if the support fails for that trend line, particularly if BTCUSD drastically drops, then OMGUSD could likely follow with a rather precipitous drop as well.
However, there are still lots of bearish thoughts going around right now for BTC, so please like if you agree or comment or see anything differently, as I would love to hear any counterthoughts as well.
BTC short-term bullish divergenceBitcoin took quite a wallop in the past 24 hours hitting near the expectations near 46-48K I had mentioned last time, but it now looks to be showing some signs of relief at least in the short term.
The downtrend channel looks to be solidifying itself more from what I can tell (red lines on price) and looks to be demonstrating a slight bounce based on bullish divergence showing on RSI (red line on RSI). If this continues, a slight retracement should be expected to above 50K. As to how far beyond still remains to be seen.
Daily RSI and MACD are telling a different story with a negative trend forming with a potential for further downtrends expected, but I don't think any conclusion can be determined just yet until the current retracement completes. It is unlikely the price will surpass the current channel tops beyond 55-57K in the next few days, but it seems more likely that the price enters sideways movement for a week to near 52K and also likely that a few more dips are possible in the short term (with the potential to dance around 45-48K or later to near 43-45K if the retracement only lasts a few hours/days).
It should be interesting if the current channel holds for the next week, but if the bearish trend continues, it looks like there are still some downward possibilities if the price heads sideways here in the next few days, potentially forming a double bottom or beyond if the downward trend extends beyond next week.
At least for now though, support looks to be strong around the 46-48K prices, so it should be interesting to see how long that might be the case.
Please like if you agree or comment with your thoughts as I'd love to hear them!
BCH descending triangle formingBitcoin cash had a great run last week but ultimately caved to the BTCUSD downward trend over the past few days. Although there have been a few recoveries here and there, BCHBTC instead looks to be forming a descending triangle rather than any positive trends over the next few days.
Confirmation is still needed, but if a triangle does form and breaks downward, it could take a recovery slightly longer before any positive trend occurs.
It looks like a trend to watch out for if you are one to keep an eye on BCH trends.
BTC bearish divergence, will wedge break downward?BTC has been forming a wedge after the dip occurred a few days ago. As the wedge has continued to form, hidden bearish continuation divergence has also appeared on RSI giving confirmation that further downward trends may continue as the wedge has begun to break downward.
There are still a few bullish patterns that are possible, for example, this could be the beginning of an inverse head and shoulders formation or the wedge could really look like an ascending triangle, but from what I can tell, most trends look bearish.
If a dip does occur, a new descending channel may be forming that looks to trend toward $50K in the short term toward longer term support, however, stronger support looks to be around 46-48K where there are stronger Fibonacci support levels.
Please like if you agree or leave a comment as to what you see, as I would love to hear your thoughts.
COIN bearish pennant breakoutI am usually not much of one to talk about stocks as much as cryptocurrencies (as my username indicates), although I feel like it would be an injustice not to mention the current breakout of a bearish pennant for coinbase. It started to form a wedge yesterday, but looks like it has broken downward today.
As with most IPOs it is often tricky to determine trends immediately, but it looks like COIN is perhaps starting off heading downward first. As to whether BTC's current downtrend will have any effect on COIN or vice-versa should be interesting to keep an eye on, as the correlation might begin to show itself over the next few weeks/months.
Is DOGE in a "bubble"?Despite what many may say negatively in the past few days as DOGE is one of the few alts to rise, DOGE at least has had quite a showing for bringing in some positive sentiment during a BTC drop as well as introducing many folks to cryptocurrency in the past few months.
That being said, for anyone curious about the "bubble" possibilities of DOGE, I just wanted to mention a few key points about the current price action as it relates to a typical bubble formation (as it looks very familiar, at least in my opinion, to many BTC chart setups from the "bubble" years):
1) DOGE was showing some expected bearish divergence before capitulating to a drop
2) The initial drop was almost precisely near the 61.8% Fibonacci level
3) Upon retracement back upward, it is nearing once again the 61.8% Fibonacci level if it is to reach near .365 USD then drop afterward
Although the above can be "bubble-like" conditions can be stated for many alts, I just wanted to mention that if DOGE is not able to continue upward, this indeed could become a bubble situation, after which there is a possibility of a retracement to near 85% for the longer term trend. These moments usually drag on with lots of hope and denial (googling "crypto bubble chart" brings up many of these examples). I suppose time will tell if this is the current case for DOGE to be finishing a bubble or if Elon's twitter will continue to propel the price to further levels. I for one am at least am hoping that .365 USD might be a year long end (see what I did there?) to how noisy the news and trolling in chat has been lately about DOGE, but I suppose we shall see. But as to all those who "raked it in" during the jump, good for you all! In the meantime, you stay classy dogecoin!
UMAUSD Bearish DivergenceIt looks like UMA has had a great run against BTC as the price has begun to head downward for the latter. I rarely put the "USD" in the title of my posts as rarely is it significant, but I just want to call out a few things about UMA.
1) UMA is trending well against BTC, with a potential to keep up this trend and fall less drastically if BTC continues to drop (I posted about this previously if you are interested about details)
2) UMAUSD did just have a (slight) breakout, so it is possible to still bounce on the trend line (green dashed line) if the persistence continues against BTC (NOTE: They arrows are more an indication and likely drawn too spread out; if BTC falls, it is very likely to drop sooner and more violently in a shorter amount of time)
Either way, UMA looks interestingly to be one of the few cryptocurrencies that seem to have held up against the latest BTC drop (other than DOGE of course, which is quite possibly in its own "bubble" right now). As to whether it continues is anyone's guess, but it looks like one of the potential "underdog" trends to watch for at the very least entertainment value in the short term if the Bitcoin downward trend continues.
BTC down, but not out!A rather drastic drop just occurred for BTC with potential (probable) drops to continue (after possible short-term retracement). The long-term linear trend just took a rather harsh hit as the price dipped below the support around 58K and subsequently plummeted to around 51.5K USD. However, this doesn't look like the bull market is done just yet.
Whenever I see a dip without a flash crash from the beginning uptrend, I tend to look to the logarithmic chart for what trends to observe (NOTE: the current crash was to the 61.8% Fibonacci for the dip since 43K and around 23.6% Fibonacci of the dip since 29K). Additionally, the current logarithmic trend looks to have started fairly earlier and more conclusively than the linear trend, so I feel it can be better trusted for longer-term trend expectations.
From the daily logarithmic chart, the uptrend definitely looks to be continuing (as indicated by the yellow trend line which I drew quite some time ago which some may have seen sneak into some of my previous charts), but one can definitely see there is a bit more possible dip to occur (to near around 47K, which is around the 38.2% Fibonacci level since the 29K dip). I anticipate this level is likely to occur with the current downtrend, but not necessarily after some retracement occurs (and potentially propelling a few alts back upward slightly in the short term).
Hence I am currently keeping an eye on the long-term daily upward support to see if it continues to hold. If it does, a retracement like that which is currently occurring definitely has the potential to be a healthy retreat before a longer uptrend within the next year. However, if support falters, it can definitely lead to a year(s) long reversal. Either way, the aforementioned levels seem to be some key points for which to watch out in the short-term to determine the rest of the long-term trend.
Please like if you agree or leave a comment if you see some different trends/concerns that I am missing as I would love to hear your thoughts!
BTC bounce soon at crucial support?BTC is currently holding at some rather crucial support from the long term trend (white line).
On the positive side, support has not definitively broken on price nor RSI, so very well might bounce (although it is right at the precipice, so there is understandable concern here). There is also still the possibility that this is still just retracement at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the latest uptrend. Additionally, if a bounce occurs here, there is a possibility it could head upward into an inverse head and shoulders (green triangles) and further head upward.
On the less positive side, since this is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, even an increase upward has the potential to hit a new all-time high but looks very close to a three-drive bearish pattern as well. Additionally, MACD is heading the negative direction as well so it well might continue. And of course, this support line is so crucial such that such a break could easily send the price into a longer term bearish trend that can last for some time now.
There are possibilities that this could be a result of the PI Indicator or ALT season causing FOMO at max pain (for example, thanks to DOGE), but I would be somewhat surprised that the fall here would come without as many heavy handed indicators into oversold territory as well as the fact that this is not a flash crash, but it is quite possible that such a crash could occur soon (particularly if stops soon trigger).
Although things looks fairly scary right now, I feel there are so many positive trends needing to continue on alts that this very well could possibly be a retracement and bounce soon (until the trend shows otherwise). However, I would still suggest to never take my opinion as advice (both now or ever) as I could easily be wrong. But if you strongly feel otherwise, I would love to hear your thoughts, so please like this article if you agree or leave a comment as to why if you don't. Either way, this looks like a very crucial point to watch if a downward trend continues from here, as it might take a while to recover if that is the case and might propel the price near crash levels.
DASHBTC falling wedge breakout! 🚀DASHBTC looks like it is breaking a falling wedge that has formed since 2020 (green lines).
Although DASHBTC originally formed and broke out of a smaller wedge during the explosion that happened in February (yellow line), it looks like volume still is not near the higher breakout levels for DASHBTC. Although this could mean a potential fake out, it also could mean there is still a bit of potential for growth if history is any indication of the potential for how far the breakout might extend.
Please leave a comment if you see anything different or like if you agree, but in my opinion, things look to still have potential (although no guarantee) for DASHBTC.
OMGBTC double-bottom, wedge challenge?OMGBTC recently had a near breakout from a double bottom w-pattern a few days ago (blue dotted lines).
It has since started to retrace (as is common with a double-bottom breakout), however, if it does in fact continue to break upward again, there is some interesting resistance right around the corner.
Since 2018, a descending falling wedge has been forming for OMGBTC that has forms a vertex right around the beginning of 2022. Hence there is a possibility for a rise up out from a double bottom breakout to reach up to this wedge in the short term. From there either another push back downward or a breakout can be expected, but it should be interesting which occurs with how soon is the date for the apex of the wedge.
It looks like OMGBTC might be a few weeks away from this point, but the direction change to challenge this wedge looks like it may occur in the next few days (if the trend does in fact head upward, as BTC Dominance has recently shown that BTC could also take over in this relationship soon, see my other post for details). Either way it looks to be another point to keep an eye on.
COMP Inverse H&S BreakoutCompound looks to be another alt that is experiencing a neckline breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
It looks like a slight retracement is now occurring which has the potential to break down below the neckline still, however, assuming the trend continues, it has a bit of potential upward as indicated by the head to neckline length extended after the breakout (dashed blue line).
There is a similar breakout occurring against COMPBTC, so it looks like there is some potential to outpace BTC over the next few days as well if the breakout continues. I suppose we shall see soon if the breakout becomes more definitive in the next day(s) or so.
ATOMBTC inverse H&S neckline breakAn inverse head and shoulders pattern looks to have been forming on the daily chart for ATOMBTC. It looks like the neckline has finally broken today.
If the rules of the head and shoulder pattern hold (as of course, no pattern is guaranteed), it looks like there are still some potential returns possible if bitcoin continues its upward trend (as indicated by the dotted blue lines).
BTC possible road to $67K, $70KBitcoin looks to have broken the ascending triangle (dashed blue lines) I mentioned yesterday. However, I missed an additional bullish sign with a short term inverse head and shoulders forming on the 4-hour chart (green triangles) that also had a neckline break earlier today (dashed green line).
When the length of this pattern is extended at the breakout (dotted green lines), it extends to $67K USD. This coincides with a Fibonacci extension from the $43K dip nicely so is a price for which to keep an eye out in my opinion, particularly if the upward channel continues (dashed blue lines). However, the larger head and shoulders neckline break (dotted yellow line) looks to extend to higher around $70K.
If the trend continues, I anticipate some resistance at $64K (due to longer-term inverse head and shoulder shoulder lengths), but it should be interesting if BTC is able to approach any of these higher resistance levels as well as what that might mean for ALTs if the trend continues over the next few weeks.
LUV before earningsSouthwest has continued to fly everday during this pandemic. On some flights carry less than 10 people at one time. Although the service has been limited the flights are starting to fill up slowly and surely and with the 737 max test flights starting again, that would bring a large portion of their fleet into service.
USDCHF Long at supportIn my opinion i can see small drop happening with USDCHF and then i will be looking to buy at or near support level 0.9720 - 0.9730ish
Bitcoin , and the man bringing it downWhat if Craig Wright didn't exist?? What if BCH forked normally, absent the eventual child like threats by Craig Wright , based on an what began as a disagreement with Roger Ver?
What if Craig Wright didn't threaten to take down the greatest techno-economic instrument and experiment in history?
Not content to "mine empty blocks" of BCHABC - conduct a 51 attack on ABC, DESTROY BCHABC and , after that , Bitcoin itself??
Why did such an esoteric, limited use case currency surge so high, and why did the market follow? Part of the market following can be explained by inter currency exchange and adjustments to prevent arbitrage, yet still, BCH climbed to $650.00. At one point people were paying 650.00 usd for BCH, not all that long ago.
Before long , Craig Wright began to unravel publicly , and twitter account in hand threatened to destroy BCHABC, then BCH , and then Bitcoin. Presumably the entire market, except perhaps for a "Wright" coin.
Is this really happening? An argument over a currency that most consider a liability when evaluating a companies holdings , etc. , has caused doubt as to the eventuality of Bitcoin itself.
He has had help.
We have a European bank executive on record today , taking pot shot's at Bitcoin calling it the "evil spawn of the financial crisis."
This is a surreal day in the history of CryptoCurrency , a sad day for most , a satisfying one for Craig Wright , who has his work ahead of him now, taking your money , your friends, parents , loved ones money - and destroying innovation.
Bitcoin is the child of necessity , not the evil spawn of anything . People have lost money trying to day trade it , it is still in need of protection from manipulation , fake news and bad psychology, and now apparently from Mr. Wright.
How underwhelmingly pathetic.
Mr. Wright , you aren't making any friends. You're public behavior calls into question your knowledge and intent; and if you destroy Bitcoin , I suspect that someone , somewhere will take exception to your existence , just as you have with Crypto. Not me.
No, someone among the many lives you are threatening to destroy. I wonder if you thought of THE PEOPLE? Are THEY to blame as well , on the off chance they preferred anothers vision???
You could not possibly be Satoshi , but I bet Satoshi wouldn't care very much for you.
Caveat Emptor.
[TRX Analysis] Where is the herd?
There are four levels that I am currently watching on TRX/BTC chart on the weekly.
In anticipation for the founder of Tron Justin Sun's "secret announcement" the market has seen a minute short squeeze. Justin Sun has switched his normal spam like tempo to one of more hush and lull leading up to this announcement. With its new found spot light on futures trading site Bitmex.com there is potential for short squeeze to occur from over leveraged short positions. If this plays out I am watching these levels as resistance to the trx bulls. Over 36 exchanges have integrated withdrawals and deposits of the Tronix coin from its ERC-20 token migration. Ledger nano has also begun accepting the coin for cold storage security. Does the herd value trx enough to place their coins under cold storage, time will tell. But scarcity and liquidity deems themselves important in positive price action.
The Daily Show: GANN FAN LTC (D)I decided to try out some GANN analysis and from what I see we are still in bear territory on the Monthly and Weekly charts, so don't go all moon crazy yet. We are griding this one out and as I said on my other charts I want sideways and up as long as we do not drop below 100 which is still very possible I think until May. May we reassess.
The two trend lines have to hold or I think we will test the lows that some of the more popular TA's have been predicting. We will not be mooning until we break through 2/1 with volume. I have noted that people keep saying new money has to be pumped in.... The new money has been in for months; at least since October 2017. Just more of them are coming out publicly, because of the regulations (just speaking for us Americans) and the government finally taking an interest.
I will be posting a couple more Gann charts on different time frames today for my future self.
Not advice, Just my opinion
