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Tomorrow close can invalidate the bullish thesisA lot of bulls have been calling a head and shoulder bottom which I have drawn in orange. We rejected twice on the weekly candle at the neckline of 415. The Ichimoku is starting to forecast a roll-over with the lagging span falling below the price. We are currently inside of the red cloud and it looks like we may drop out of it on the downside. Tomorrows close is critical for the bulls. If we close under 406 It will signal a bearish reversal and the downside can begin again. Interest rates are continuing to rise, metals and crypto are starting to weaken, the dollar is getting stronger and bond yields are going up, all of these signal more bearish price action on the horizon. Good luck out there traders
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
4
Amazon - Pop & Drop?Amazon had a gap up after the last earnings report which honestly took me by surprise since they had very little growth despite their inflated PE value. Overall I think that the general market rally and the stock split may have contributed more than anything. I guess investors were simply thankful that Amazons numbers weren't declining. Anyway we saw the gap up but that stalled at the former support level - now marking a resistance level. This combined with the overhead resistance and the bounce down from the 200 day moving average says to me that the gap up is over and there is a good chance it will come right back down in the coming weeks to months Personally I had some Jan 2023 puts at 115 and was happy to add more at 130 & 140. I think we should be coming down to the mid 90s once the bear market truly bottoms. Something I keep in the back of my mind is that Amazon is not really a true monopoly, they have a huge head start but nothing is stopping other companies from improving their delivery services and online ordering. Their Amazon web services is starting to garner competition and their streaming service is obviously paralleled by many different providers. Amazon had exponential growth in the past because the competition was not as focused or well funded in their domain, this is no longer the case. I expect some speculative investors to spread out their investments or pull back from the Bezos venture.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by MikeSpy
SPY: Head & Shoulders top & 2022 PredictionIt looks to me like we have firmly painted a head and shoulders top. This should be the end of the Covid Bubble. We are now going to unwind into a bumpy landing. I get the feeling May might actually be a decent month considering April has burned off almost all of the gains that we made from the last time Powell spoke. It seems almost too predictable but that might be exactly why it happens. I think we will continue our decline before Powell speaks and after the rate hike the market will breath another sigh of relief, we will start to climb a bit, but not nearly as high as the last time. Blind bullishness is starting to fade and talks of recession are starting to become more mainstream. We have danced around this 415-420 mark a couple times and it is seems like a nice support, I think we will bounce off of it once more, it coincides nicely with the rate hike announcement. Inevitably we will be coming back down again, the market cannot support these valuations. I think that once we do crack 415 we will start heading straight down to the most reasonable instance of support, the Pre-Covid peak. 335 represents a 30% decline from the All Time High and is right where we were at the peak pre-covid, it also is where we had quite a few challenges breaking out of during the recovery. I think it will act as a strong support and really one of the only supports once we break 415 Overall I think once 415 is cracked we will really start to move downward, but I do feel we will get some bullishness in May. Note: We may have some support around 380 which could result in a slight rally to 400-410. Once the 415 support acts as confirmed resistance we will drop like a rock down towards 335. This is just artwork.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MikeSpy
10
BTC UpdateHey Everyone , Many of you thought we`ve broken the triangle , and now its time for the bull run to begin. In my opinion that`s incorrect . For the Following reasons: If we look at the chart above , we can clearly see a strong trend line that doesn`t let us to go up. In my opinion that fast and strong break out of the resistance we had , was just a simple hand shake , Now once we got all our shorters out , we can see a fast reaction of selling. If you check the volume in the daily period and 13h we can clearly see the red volume ( short volume) Is bigger . Which shows me we that the bears might be planning something. Also on top of that , that fast run , was something small fishes made. Which means , the whales aren`t buying atm. They are selling. Simply selling :) . That tells me alot. We might get another pump to that very same trend line I marked. After that, I truly believe we`ll see 42k . Thanks , Alon
Short
by AlonJ
DOGE/BTC potential bounce soonI am generally not one who likes to talk much about DOGE as it already gets far too much attention, but the current trend looks a bit interesting in my opinion. From what I am seeing, there appears to have been a breakout of a forming wedge (orange dotted lines) at the end of May after an initial bounce off of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (based on the the all-time high to the initial low back in April). The ratio now looks like it has been riding the trend line from the breakout downward but has yet to break below it, but now it looks to be approaching the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Hence it looks like there is a possibility for a bounce to occur here, further validated by a bit of bullish reversal divergence as fairly clearly evident on MACD, but it is also on quite a few other oscillators as well, however I didn't want to clutter the chart. It should be interesting to see what happens here in the next day or so as it looks like there are not many options left for the ratio to go as it is now approaching the apex of a descending wedge based on the downward trend since the most recent breakout (thin green line), so it looks like it should be interesting to see which way the ratio will head, whether it breaks support and heads downward or potentially heads upward to form a potentially long term wedge (white lines) potentially forming a longer-term bullish pennant. And of course, this is not meant as financial advice and is only my opinion, but please like or comment if you agree or have any thoughts.
Long
by crypto_trends
BTC trend & Inverse H&S breakout soon?BTC looks to be indicating a potential breakout from the trend from nearly a month ago. First off, a quick recap: A few days ago, I mentioned the bearish logarithmic descending channel (orange lines) that BTC had been trending since April BTC then looks to have bounced off the logarithmic trend line (dashed yellow lines) Then a few days ago, BTC began to break out of the channel to form a a new wedge Now it looks as though BTC has bounced off of the original descending channel and begun to break out of the aforementioned new channel to form what looks to be the beginning of an inverse head and shoulders breakout. If the breakout holds, there is potential to continue upward to near the 50% Fibonacci extension from the all-time high based on the shoulder-neckline length of the inverse head and shoulders pattern (or potentially beyond this if an ascending channel were to occur as I mentioned before). However, I should note that there has been a bit of continuation bearish hidden continuation divergence forming on RSI and MACD oscillators (to name a few) which may indicate a potential dip before a continuation upward if this turns out to not be a fake out (some more time is needed to be certain). Hence if a break down to below 37K occurs too soon, this indeed might indicate that this is a fake out instead of a break out. Either way, it looks like a few possible turning points are in order right around the corner. As to how far they continue in the longer term I think still remains to be seen. And of course, this is not meant as financial advice and is just my opinion. However, please like or comment if you agree or have any thoughts!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by crypto_trends
2
BTC new wedge or new channels?Bitcoin looks to have surprised a few today as it looks to have potentially bounced off of the trend support I mentioned recently. I have recently changed back to the linear chart and what I find interesting is we are back in a potential wedge again (solid red and green lines). I feel like this is the movie "Jurassic Park" where the boy yells "we're back in the car again" after seeing a potential wedge form after the previous one dragged out for weeks. I should also note: I am the one who grumbles after seeing the wedge, the boy in the movie saw dinosaurs for anyone who hasn't seen the movie; although it is debatable which is worse since dinosaurs did not have cryptocurrency (at least none that we know of) despite it easily being a possible reason for their extinction (possibly due to energy consumption and global warming?). Anyway, there are quite a few possibilities right now, but the ones I find interesting are the potential channels that could form with either a bullish channel (green lines) to potentially bounce near 47K (near some Fibonacci resistance) or a bearish channel (red lines) potentially leading to near 20K (also near some strong Fibonacci support). What is interesting is RSI seems to indicate support for either possibility with bullish reversal divergence (green line on RSI) but also bearish hidden divergence (red line on RSI). I for one typically think that "regular divergence trumps hidden divergence" similar to how "paper beats rock", but as my older siblings have taught me "that's silly, how can a piece of paper beat a rock? don't get your hopes up!", so this very well could be a coin flip still in my opinion until a breakout occurs. Either way, it looks like there are some more entertaining roads ahead over the next few weeks/months compared to the last few weeks (at least one would hope). And of course, this is not meant as financial advice but is only my opinion. But please like or comment if you agree of have any opinions as well!
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by crypto_trends
BTC short-term big pictureI just wanted to show a quick zoomed out picture of where the current support trend line is (yellow dashed line) that I have been mentioning lately relative to Fibonacci support. Although I have generally been going off of the Fibonacci retracement levels based on the low from last March (which has the current retracement level nearer to 34K rather than 32K), I have been noticing that going back to nearer the beginning of BTC (where prices are much lower) looks to yield a pretty reliable match for the recent trend (I will probably go back to the previous levels for future posts). That being said, as I stated yesterday, it looks like the current price is at a turning point to either bounce up or to break downward for which the Fibonacci retracement levels can be between 24K (as displayed) to near 27K (not displayed but is the retracement level based on the recent low near 4K). There are lots of possibilities right now of course, as the price could buckle to the 0.78 retracement levels and beyond as well, particularly if staying in the current descending channel, but it looks like the next week to month will be critical to determine if indeed the short-term bull market is over or not based on if a continuation upward from the trend line occurs. And of course, this is not meant as financial advice and is solely my opinion, but please like or comment if you agree or have any opinions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by crypto_trends
BTC wedge break, will support hold?BTC looks to have just broken wedge support that many have been speaking of recently. I think the question for many now is "is it in fact a bearish pennant and is a crash imminent". If a crash were to occur and the price stays in the descending channel (orange lines on the logarithmic chart), there is indeed quite a bit of downward potential to near 16-20K, so there is understandable concern. However, if this indeed is a pennant, it is rather surprising that a) it didn't break downward until the apex of the triangle, and b) that it did not "flash crash" and that I have even been able to write this post hours after the breakout of the wedge. It is additionally interesting to see many altcoins still staying healthily in positions against BTC, but we shall see how long that may be the case I suppose. A key point of interest looks to be the key support for the logarithmic trend line (yellow dashed line) that looks like it may be key support shortly. If this breaks and stays broken below 32K, then I plan on keeping a close watch on the descending channel. However, if a support continues, it will be interesting if it can continue for the next week to break out of the channel (around June 13th or so). Either way, it looks like some of the boring action might coming to a halt as all eyes start to eye BTC once again. And of course, this is only my opinion and in no way is meant as financial advice. But please like or comment if you agree or see anything differently or in addition to these thoughts.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by crypto_trends
4
BTC wedge moment of truth coming up soon!A critical moment is approaching for BTC over the next few hours as the price approaches the top of a wedge (bearish pennant?) which I mentioned a few days ago (white lines). A slight peak out of the wedge has occurred over the past few hours indicating a potential to break upward which can be seen as supported by a daily MACD cross (not shown). There is still quite a bit more time needed for validation, but if such a breakout occurs, this could propel the price to near the recent Fibonacci targets from 47-52K. However, there is also likely a possibility of a continuation downward supported by MACD divergence (white line on MACD) as well as indicated by dwindling volume over the past few days. It looks like the next few hours will be the crucial to watch which way the trend heads and what we might expect over the next few days whether that be a break out upward or a bounce downward. And of course, this is not meant as financial advice and is only my opinion, but please like or comment if you agree or have any thoughts.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by crypto_trends
2
BTC wedge, potential bounce & dropIt looks like BTC has managed to solidify a short term head and shoulders pattern that has broken the neckline downward. Based on the extension of the neckline from the head distance (orange dotted lines), it looks like the dip might extend near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 32-33K (although 35K is a possibility as well at the 61.8% Fibonacci level). Regardless of the short-term dips, there does seem to be a wedge forming (long-term bearish pennant?) which may indicate a continuation down based on short-term continuation bearish divergence (red line on RSI if a bounce does occur). This is based on a bounce based on short-term bullish divergence (light green line on MACD), however an early break of the wedge could send the price to near 15-25K if a break occurs sooner (prices are based on Fibonacci extensions). Either way, the trend looks bearish with some potential bullish bounces over the next few days extending into June. However, a break upward out of the wedge in early June is possible with some bullish possibilities as well, so it should be interesting to see what transpires over the next few days. As always, this is not financial advice and is solely my opinion, but please like if you agree or comment with any opinions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by crypto_trends
ETH still trending upwardDespite a rather drastic drop a couple of days ago, it looks like ETH is still in an ascending channel for the long term logarithmic trend. As for the flash crash from the other day, it looks to have very positively correlated to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which can easily be seen as a healthy retracement. Hence it looks like there is a good possibility that any further retracements might go to near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 2.4K, but otherwise, so long as the price does not break near 1.7-1.8K in the short term, then the trend is still fairly positive for ETH. However, I must note that ETH is commonly known to follow BTC, so it is still quite possible that a BTC drop back to its former levels near 30K could still have a negative effect on ETH. However, if such a drop were to occur gradually rather than suddenly, there is a possibility that ETH will also gradually decline rather than the rather precipitous drop a few days ago. And of course, this is not meant as financial advice and is just my opinion, but please like or comment if you agree or see anything differently.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by crypto_trends
BTC bounce before continuing downward?BTC has recently had one heck of a dip over the past few days, but looks like a descending channel has now begun to form (red lines) that looks like a bounce might be in order. A bounce from around the current price also looks to be nicely around the 38.2% long-term Fibonacci retracement from the most recent high. Additionally, the 4-hour chart looks to be giving so much divergence on oscillators as confirmation that I figure it not even worth a mention. If a bounce here does occur however, I should note that the trend definitely looks to be downward as confirmed by the descending channel as well as a head and shoulders pattern (as indicated by the red head and shoulders lines) that looks to have broken a couple of days ago that looks to nicely extend to near 27K near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (as indicated by the yellow dotted lines). It should be interesting to see how it all plays out for alts if a bounce does occur, as there is a potential for a few more bounces and breakouts before a potential further drop around early-June which is fairly reminiscent of 2017. This is not meant as any type of financial advice and is just my opinion. But please like or comment if you agree or see anything differently.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by crypto_trends
BTC Inverse H&S or Bearish Pennant?In the past few hours, Bitcoin looks to have started to break out of a bearish pennant (red dashed lines) towards the positive side out of what looks to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 1-hour chart. If the trend continues past 51-52K, there is potential for the price to head upward to 54-55K based on retracement back upward to near the 61.8% Fibonacci extension (from the recent high near 60K) as well as based on the neckline/head length of the inverse head and shoulders pattern (yellow dotted line). However, as I stated before, the trend looks to have formed what looks to be a bearish pennant, so there is still a good possibility of a fake out such that the price could retreat back downward and continue to plummet downward toward 42-43K. Hence it looks like the next day should give a few good indications as to whether the price will continue BTC's demise or if a slight reprieve might be in order at least for a few days before any further paths downward. Although there are some good divergence indicators to the positive side on the daily chart, from what I can tell it is likely too early to tell which direction the trend will head. As always however, this is not meant as financial advice and is solely my opinion which could easily be wrong particularly during the tumultuous trends from the past few days. But please like or leave a comment if you agree or see anything differently.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by crypto_trends
Will MIR bounce similarly to its fellow listings?On May 6th, 2021, Coinbase listed 4 new tokens (CTSI, RLC, MIR, and TRB) for which three have already seen quite a significant increase, namely CTSI, RLC, and TRB. However, the one that seems left behind so far has been the Mirror Protocol (MIRUSD). But first, let me provide a quick description of what the Mirror Protocol is for anyone who might be interested: The Mirror Protocol is branded as a governance token that "allows the creation of fungible assets, that track the price of real world assets" . But what does this mean? My summary in short is: If you want to buy a stock, but not buy it on the stock market, you can buy it using the Mirror Protocol instead. The appeal might not be obvious at first (as you can already buy stocks, why buy tokens instead?), but the significance comes to mind when one thinks of new possibilities such as: 1) stocks are now available via blockchain without brokerage registrations required or restrictions for only allowing citizens to purchase a stock, and 2) one doesn't have to save up to buy an expensive stock, but can finally buy only a portion of a stock similarly to how can be done with cryptocurrency (for example, one would not need roughly $250 to buy the Coinbase stock COIN, but can now buy only half for around $125, which becomes even more appealing for anyone who has ever wanted to buy BRK.A which requires a whopping $437K as of today). The interesting part that caught my eye is that MIRUSD seems to have been in an ascending channel for some time now on the logarithmic chart, and is currently dancing near the bottom of this chart signifying either a potential crash downward or possibly a potential bounce to shoot the price upward exponentially similarly to the other newly listed tokens. Although TRB and CTSI technically have smaller market caps (as of today), the differences are not necessarily significant (in terms of cryptocurrency at least), and RLC is the only one that is even greater than a $1B market cap today. Hence the potential seems interesting for what might be in store for MIR if it does indeed follow its sibling listings. As always, this is not financial advice and is solely my opinion. But please like or comment if you agree or have opinions otherwise.
MLong
by crypto_trends
7
Will ETH continue to ride the logarithmic channel top?ETH looks to be rather bullish when taking a step back and looking at the long-term logarithmic chart over the past year. As you can see, ETH has a tendency to get near the top of the ascending channel that has been forming since July 2020 and largely just stay at the top for some time. If history were to repeat itself, and if Ethereum continues to stay near this channel top, then there are is a good potential that ETH could hit 3.6-3.7K in the short term and even up to near 4.6K (based on Fibonacci extensions) over the next few weeks. ETH recently surprised me over the past week and a half as it continued to rise despite continued divergence. Even now, I dare not even show the 4-hour chart due to the divergence I just can't unsee. But that being said, things are looking fairly bullish from a long-term perspective. As to how long ETH will stay this way before a larger retracement is anyone's guess. As always, this is not financial advice and is solely my opinion, but please like or comment if you agree or have any thoughts/opinions.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by crypto_trends