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IRON TARIHi guys, this is a short iron condor, with 4 weeks until expiration ( next regular) and 5% strike, we have only the 40% of probability. So it means that there are 60% of probability that the price will be at expiration more than +-5% from actual price. Selling the 280 call and the 310 put, with 2.5$ spread, there is a max profit of 130$, and a max loss of 120$. I'm confident that we are going to have enough room to roll up or down in a few days to minimize the max loss and raise our probability of success, but so far we have 60% to earn more than what we risk. Check on my script more info about this. Enjoy your wallet! Tari.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by TARITRADE
88% PoP #ironcondor for $BABA in chinese crash #option #optionsChinese crash credit play, because of high IVRank. My Iron Condor Hunter script have signaled a safe entry here. REASONS: 1) Confirmed bear trend This is the safe playground of IC for credit. The backtested 3 years of bullish trend changed. 2) My automatic Iron Condor Hunter script My Iron Condor Hunter script gave a reliable signal to opening IC position. To subscibe for free trial of it: please follow and requeast access for free. Max profit: $188 Probability of 50%Profit: 88% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 23% Max loss with my risk management: ~$200 Req. Buy Power: $812 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 81 (very high) Expiry: 53 days Buy 1 BABA Sep17' 140 Put Sell 1 BABA Sep17' 150 Put Sell 1 BABA Sep17' 220 Call Buy 1 BABA Sep17' 230 Call Bearish IronCondor for 1.88cr, Tasty IVRank is extreme high (81 IVR). Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing OUTSIDE the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 100$. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto debit order for 0.66db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:BABAShort
by TanukiTrade
2
$SPY BULL short put spread 90% PoP, 20% profit #options #option After a beartrap switched back to bullish view with large ETF-s. First of all: SPY Max profit: $204 Probability for 50% of Profit: %90 Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 20% Req. Buy Power: $996 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Expiry: 22 days Buy 3 SPY Jul16' 420 Put Sell 3 SPY Jul16' 416 Put Credit Put spread for 0.68cr each. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 350$. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.24db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
AMEX:SPYLong
by TanukiTrade
Beyond FoMo... Speculation.Beyond Meat is breaking out of a Bull Flag and is at the bullish 50 & 200 day ema crossover point. If the price can break through and stay above the strong 170 resistance area for a couple weeks this could confirm a bullish long term trend. Although there needs to be a considerable increase in volume to make this happen. Watch out for a "Fakeout" above resistance which could have high volatility like on Jan 26th A covered straddle option strategy is useful in a scenario like this when the price could move up or down quickly. The RSI is looking weak, the price could move down after getting rejected at a resistance point and remain in the pennant shape for many more months until it makes its major move out. Make sure to be aware of the overall market conditions while trading and avoid over leveraging in risky setups.
NASDAQ:BYND
by tylerwitucki
4
Disney Short - Rejection of EMA's / Credit Spread TradeI am looking at entering a short position on Disney (DIS) via a call-credit spread because of a few criteria that are present within the chart. First and foremost, on the daily chart, there is a consistent downtrend present since March 8th of this year, characterized by constant rejections of the 10, 25, and 50 exponential moving averages. I will be selling to open a vertical credit spread on the call side which will put theta in my favor and gave me negative delta. As such, my breakeven will continuously rise, and by expiration, I will hit full profit as long as DIS is anywhere below $180.00 / share. The breakeven point throughout this trade is the blue ray that I've drawn from todays date up until my contract expiration, which is on July 16th. STO - July 16th, 180 C BTO - July 16th, 185 C Greeks: Delta: About -$14.00 as of 06/23/21 Theta: (Working for me) - $1.60 Stochastics are showing signs of life to the positive side, which is fine as I am scaling into my short position. Not particularly worried about a massive move upwards. I am looking for a price target of $167.00-ish, but will take profits earlier if the need arises. I will stop out above $180.00.
NYSE:DISShort
by PureDelta
$TAL is oversold, bullish spread with 72% PoP 33% profit #optionLong time waiting for a pullback at this territory.... Today RSI breaking up, volume arrived, but IVR is still very high. Optimal for some credit put spread. Max profit: $250 Probability for 50% of Profit: 72% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 33% Req. Buy Power: $750 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 80 Expiry: 22 days Sell 2 TAL Jul16' 22.5 Put Buy 2 TAL Jul16' 17.5 Put Credit Put spread for 1.25cr each Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 250$. Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.44db. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:TALLong
by TanukiTrade
1
$NKE 8% profit in one day with Iron Condor #nike #options$NKE 8% profit in one day with Iron Condor #nike #options 8% profit in one day at event? Let's see! Max profit: $45 Probability of Profit: %75 Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 8% Req. Buy Power: $554 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 24 Expiry: 1 days Buy 1 NKE Jun25' 120 Put Sell 1 NKE Jun25' 126 Put Sell 1 NKE Jun25' 145 Call Buy 1 NKE Jun25' 150 Call Iron Condor spread for 554cr, because IVR is relative high because event. If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:NKE
by TanukiTrade
Prepared for S&P500 correction with Buying PUT optionI've closed every other position, staying in cash and playing for SPX correction because: 1/ SP500 RSI falling down 2/ Strong trendline broken 3/ Selling Volume increased My strategy is simple: BUY SPY Jun30' 415 PUT for 3.85db, because VIX is realive low SIZING: only a little of my CAP is used for this binary play. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing ABOVE the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 50% of position. Take profit strategy: selling about ~38cr (x10). Of course I'll not wait until expiry...! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by TanukiTrade
2
$EDU short put vertical 73% PoP for credit at support$EDU short put vertical 73% PoP for credit at support New Oriental Education & Tech Group had a big move and a big correction. It's time to playing some bullish move. Weekly timeframe: Oversold on weeky and on daily too, sitting on the bullish trendline. Daily timeframe: Oversold too, bullish divergence. Playing short put vertical here, because IVR is relative high: 60. Max profit: $236 PoP50: 73% Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 30% Max loss with my risk management: ~$150 Req. Buy Power: $764 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!) Tasty IVR: 60 (relative high) Expiry: 24 days Buy 4 EDU Jul16' 5 PUT Sell 4 EDU Jul16' 7.5 PUT Short put spread for 0.6cr each, because IVR is relative high. COMMENT: Because of very low RSI and daily divergence it could be a good choice into my investment bag/portfolio too. Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be 150$. Probability of loss in this way: ~27% . Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 0.20db. Probability of profit this way: ~73%. Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case! If you liked this article, check my other ideas. Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
NYSE:EDULong
by TanukiTrade
Ride Lordstown Stock - My Worst Trade?You know, on YouTube, all these traders, they’re always showing you how much money they make with trading, but very few of them are actually talking about the bad trades. Well, you know what? I thought today I’m going to address this head-on because many of you had questions about a bad trade that I’m in. That trade being RIDE , Lordstown Motors. I want to discuss why I entered the trade in the first place, what went wrong with this trade, how it is hurting my account right now, and what I’m personally doing to get out of it. Why I Got Into RIDE So far my realized profits for the year to date are at $94,476. So that’s pretty good, right? I mean, for trading for only 6 months and this is on a $250,000 cash account, which I’m using as a margin account. So I have a stock buying power of 2:1. So $500,000 in buying power. Well you see, all of this would be handy, dandy, and good if there weren’t this one pesky, huge unrealized loss. This huge unrealized loss comes from one trade, RIDE. Now, I want to tell you first quickly why I got into this, and then I want to show you what happened, what I’ve been doing so far, and what I’m planning to do. Back in mid-February or 2021, I am with my kids at a sailing regatta in Florida, and we’re doing good. I have a few positions on, all is planned and then this massive snowstorm hits Austin, Texas. Snowmageddon! This meant that we are trapped in Florida. Yeah, boohoo, could be worse places to be. Anyhow, I’m there in my RV. So it’s a 44-foot motor home and we are stuck there, and you know what? I’m bored out of my mind, and this is when I start tinkering around with my trading plan, which I definitely shouldn’t have done. So I’m entering a trade and I’m taking it with my Mastermind group. And I say, “you know what? I am going to take an aggressive trade.” Trading while bored is never a good idea, and I don’t like to trade the usual trades. But there was nothing to do, so I wanted to take a more aggressive trade. At that point, I liked Lordstown Motors and its story. Again, this is mid-February, way before Hindenburg Report. So I’m selling puts at a strike price of 21.50, the premium was good, and the current price was somewhere around $26, so all was looking good. What Happened To RIDE? Pretty much the day before my options expire, the Hindenburg Report comes out and says that they have a bunch of orders that are fake, that are not real orders, they are just pre-commitments, and their trucks catch on fire. So it’s a scathing report. Well the markets reacted, and within a few days, RIDE fell from $24 to around $17, and I got assigned 7,000 shares at my strike price of $21.50. Now, first of all, getting assigned is not a problem at all. I’m trading The Wheel Strategy and getting assigned is part of it. I’ve been stuck in trades before that went against me. My plan when this happens is, as soon as the stock dips more than 30 percent, I am flying a rescue mission . A rescue mission means that now I am selling more puts hoping to get assigned, and therefore lowering my cost basis . My Plan To Get Out of RIDE So this all is still according to my plan, and that plan is, I will fly a rescue mission at some point when the stock is down more than 30 percent. So this means I needed the price to go down to around $14. At this point, I flew a rescue mission and sold more puts. I do believe it was for a 10 strike price. I didn’t want to use all of my buying power for a rescue mission. I like to fly rescue missions in thirds so instead of going in with 100 contracts, which I would usually do, I’m selling only 30 contracts. So now after I’m doing this and getting assigned, I’m lowering my cost basis to $15.79. This basically means that I bought 7,000 shares at $21.50, and I bought another 3,000 shares at around $10, I now own $10,000 shares at an average price, so this is the cost basis here, at an average price of $15.79, instead of $21.50. Usually, what do you see? It is very, very rare that a stock will go down in a straight line. Usually what you see that the stock is going down, bouncing a little bit back up, down, bouncing a little bit up. This is where often you can apply Fibonacci lines, right? And this is why the Fibonacci tools are so powerful where you these retracements. However, RIDE is one of the rare stocks that does not like to bounce back. RIDE Is one of these rare stocks that actually went down almost in a straight line without ever bouncing back. That, of course, causes a problem, because if I’m owning 10,000 shares at a cost basis of $15.79, and the prices are now at around $9-$10, I cannot sell calls anymore. Now, this is part of my strategy The Wheel Strategy that again, I’ve been very successfully trading for a long, long time, where I made in almost $95,000 in realized profits. How RIDE Has Affected My Account But again, this one here is a bugger. It just did not want to bounce back. Now it gets even worse and here’s why. Since I have been flying a rescue mission with one-third, where I actually bought another 3,000 shares, I am flying more rescue missions because I still have another two-thirds available for my rescue missions. So I’m selling puts, 30 puts at a time, at a level of $8 and $7, hoping to get assigned. What does RIDE do? Never goes low enough to actually get me in so that I can lower my cost basis anymore. Now, with my Mastermind members, we have been following this trade together, and many of them have actually been able to get assigned and lower their cost basis. I don’t know what happened here, this is just one of these trades where nothing goes according to plan. Well, a few things went according to plan, but here I didn’t get assigned. So this means that my cost basis is still sitting at $15.79 and RIDE at one point went all the way down to a low of $6.69. Now, when you have a cost basis of $15.79, you have a difference of $9.10. When you have a loss per share of $9.10, and you own 10,000 shares, that is an unrealized loss of $91,000. This is how bad it got. However, I was still following my plan because that’s what I like to do. I have a plan, and I’m following my plan, and I’m selling more and more premium. By doing so was able to collect $14,248 in premium. So yes, I am sitting on a big unrealized loss, but then I have realized $14,248 that I collected in premium. That money has been deposited in my account. So I can subtract this, which is around $14.28. So I’m deducting this from my cost basis to get at a new break-even of $14.37. What Is Happening With RIDE Now? OK, so this is where my cost basis is and now the magic happens. RIDE actually popped up to $15.80. Now the key question here is that you might ask, “Did you get out?” No, I did not, and there are actually two reasons for it and I want to show you exactly why. 1) When that happened I wasn’t in front of my computer. I’m not watching the stocks all day long. Usually, my trading routine is such that I’m only looking at the markets for thirty minutes in the morning. After this, I’m walking away, I’m doing other stuff, and I’m living my life. So I did not see when RIDE went all the way up to $15.80, and I did not see when shortly after this it crashed all the way down to $11. 2) The 2nd reason is super important. So let me explain this to you according to my plan. According to my plan, I am selling calls against my existing position. I sold 100 hundred calls, at 15.50. These are covered calls because I own these 10,000 shares, and I sold another 200 calls that expire tomorrow (at the time of this writing). Now, here is what happens when the stock jumps up to call options. I mean, if you know options, then you know that as the stock goes up, these call options become worth more money. This is why I’m making money on the stock. So on the stock, yay, I’m making money, and on these options, before expiration, I would lose money. Part of the game. How much were these options down when this happened? So we are talking about the 15.50 call, and they went as high as $1.07, so means that on the option, I would lose $10,700, even though right now with the stocks, I would be at break even. So even if I were in front of my computer at this time, I might not have liquidated it, because if I had, I would have still suffered a $10,700 loss. Now, obviously, everybody can say, “Well Markus you should have done this.” Yeah of course. Woulda, coulda, shoulda. You see, in hindsight, we are all the greatest traders. So what happened here? We had positive momentum, this was all before the report with the SEC was filed and it looked good, right? I mean, Lordstown Motors just announced that they will take their Lordstown week virtual, where they let the whole world see what is going on. I mean, I don’t know how good you are at chart reading, but even if you just know some simple chart reading, you would have been able to see a solid one, two, three formation, and we broke above number two. So this from a chart formation standpoint is a solid uptrend. Also, you know that I like to use my indicators and the three indicators that I like to use, according to the PowerX Strategy, are RSI, they are stochastics, they are MACD. So all of this looked really, really good, and this is where we saw that RIDE has been in an uptrend. Then the news hit and of course, you can never factor in the news, and it went all the way down. What Do I Do Now? Honestly, when I looked at the chart, at this point when everything was going on, it looked good. RIDE just recently had the highest volume ever. So what am I doing right now? I am aggressively selling calls at, or slightly below, my break even. So I have an order in there to basically roll this week’s, so this will expire worthless. By doing so, it will add another $1,000 to the existing $14,000. So this is good. It brings me up to more than $15,000. And now the next thing that I want to do here is, for next week, sell the 14 call. My idea here is that for this I would like to achieve a credit of 50 cents. Now, just to let you know, a credit of 50 cents means for the size that I’m trading, $5,000. Now for tomorrow (time of writing was on 6–10–2021), depending on what Lordstown does tomorrow, I’m willing to lower it to $3,000. You see, if I can make $3,000 per week on Lordstown Motors, that will be good. Obviously, I know that there is a good possibility that Lordstown can go further down. Yesterday that there was a massive move. We went from $10 to almost $13 on some rumors that they might have secured funding. Now, hope is not a strategy. I’m not hoping that they will secure funding, but here’s what I see. I see that if there is a small pump, and at this point the pump might only be, right now we are trading at $10.59, so if it is from $10.59 to $11.50, the 14 call option will double in value. This is when I can possibly, instead of $3,000, bring in $6,000 or $8,000 per week. Now, what does this do? It lowers my break-even to a point where I can get out with maybe a small loss. And you see, for the size that I’m trading, for me a small loss, I discussed it with my head coach Mark Hodge earlier, would be around $20,000 That’s a fairly small loss for me. That would be absolutely OK. See, based on $250,000 in cash, $20,000 is less than 10 percent, closer to an 8 percent hit. If I’m basing it on the margin of $500,000, it would be a 4 percent hit. It really depends on how you see it. You see, some of you might do it based on the cash, others might do it on the margin. So that’s what I’m looking for. Where Do I Stand With RIDE Now? So where do I stand right now? So as of now, RIDE is down. The stock is down $51,000, and I collected $14,284 in premium. So right now I’m down about $36,000. It’s not too bad. I mean, yes, let’s face it, that’s not nice. $36,000 based on my account size is around 15 percent. So it’s not nice, but it’s manageable. I mean, think about it. Have you ever done a trade that took down your account by half, or by even more? I mean, in the beginning of my trading career, I did super stupid trades. I was placing trades that really brought my account down by 50 to 60 percent. So what I’m looking for right now are these pops where we go from $10.50 to $11.50. Because the implied volatility that is governing options premium for RIDE is kind of off the chart. The implied volatility, right now, 242 percent. Two days ago it was 300 and 400 percent. So what I noticed earlier today and yesterday is, as soon as we see a one-dollar pop, which again happens all the time, this is when it’s not that nice. I have to watch it a little bit more throughout the day, which is really not my style. I really don’t like to obsess about stocks. I don’t know about you, I like to go on with my life. But here, since right now we are really in trouble and I have to get out of this trade. This is my goal here, again with hopefully a small loss, we shall see. This is why I’m looking right now for these pops, because honestly, this little pop for the size that I’m trading, this here is probably worth to be around $1,000. Currently, every $1,000 helps. So right now, the loss is around $35,000. Once I’m getting to a loss of $20,000, I’ll be fine. Tomorrow, another $1,000 is being added to the realized profits. So I’m going from $14,284 to $15,284. And then the idea is right now to sell the 14 call, and by selling the 14 call I would probably make $5,000. Now, why would I sell the 14 call, if my break-even right now is $14.39? Doesn’t that mean that I’m losing money? No, because for this I’m bringing in 50 cents so this lowers my break-even to $13.89. Anyhow, this is what is currently happening, and this by no means is ruining me or, I don’t know, changing my living style. Yeah, it would suck if I lost $20,000, but it’ll probably honestly take me four to six weeks to make back that money. So this is why I’ve shown you earlier thus far I’m sitting in $95,000 in realized profits, but let’s see how it goes.
R
by rockwelltrading
8