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IRON TARIHi guys, according to my strategy we have 4weeks 12% strikes, 90% probability of success. For this Iron condor with 5$ spread for each side there is a max profit of 40$ and a max loss 460$: if you are new in Iron condor you should find this R/R ratio very poor compared with forex, but we have very high odds at our side! 90% to get the maxim profit, plus 5$ extra on both sides (the long legs) before to get tha max loss. If the weekly candle closes over the short strike we close the trade, for a loss lower than max loss of 460$. If you are more experienced you'd love to jump in this trade as I do, Strangle, no long legs, for a max credit of 80$. Enjoy your wallet! Tari.
NYSE:WMT
by TARITRADE
Iron TariHi guys, according to my strategy we have 4weeks 20% strikes, 99% probability of success, this means that we never had a lost in the past. For this Iron condor with 5$ spread for each side there is a max profit of 90$ and a max loss 410$: if you are new in Iron condor you should find this R/R ratio very poor compared with forex, but we have very high odds at our side! 99% to get the maxim profit, plus 5$ extra on both sides (the long legs) before to get tha max loss. If the weekly candle closes over the short strike we close the trade, for a loss lower than max loss of 461$. If you are more experienced you'd love to jump in this trade as I do, Strangle, no long legs, for a max credit of 130$, IV is 75% Enjoy your wallet! Tari.
NASDAQ:UAL
by TARITRADE
IRON TARIHi guys, according to my strategy we have 4weeks 15% strikes, 91% probability of success. For this Iron condor with 5$ spread for each side there is a max profit of 55$ and a max loss 445$: if you are new in Iron condor you should find this R/R ratio very poor compared with forex, but we have very high odds at our side! 91% to get the maxim profit, plus 5$ extra on both sides (the long legs) before to get tha max loss. If the weekly candle closes over the short strike we close the trade, for a loss lower than max loss of 445$. IV is too low to trade a strangle, even the odds are so great! Enjoy your wallet! Tari.
NYSE:TGT
by TARITRADE
Iron TariHi guys, according to my strategy we have 4weeks 15% strikes, 93% probability of success. For this Iron condor with 5$ spread for each side there is a max profit of 100$ and a max loss 400$: if you are new in Iron condor you should find this R/R ratio very poor compared with forex, but we have very high odds at our side! 93% to get the maxim profit, plus 5$ extra on both sides (the long legs) before to get tha max loss. If the weekly candle closes over the short strike we close the trade, for a loss lower than max loss of 400$. I prefer a strangle this time, max profi is 250$, and if things go wrong I close the trade for a max loss of 800$, getting a better R/R ratio, always with a 90% of max profit! Enjoy your wallet! Tari.
AMEX:OIH
by TARITRADE
Rotation hedge with Energy ETFOk boyz, so you guys are strong believer in momentum, you've ran your backtests on US Sectors and fund out that with a roughly 55% probability the best performers of last year will be the best performers of the next year. So you are still long tech like crazy and believe the FAANG stocks will keep rising. However what does financial professionals like to do? They hedge part of their risk, they maximize their sharp ratio by minimizing volatility with diversification in uncorrelated assets. What is your biggest risk right now? With a new vaccine on the way? => A big rotation of smart money from leaders (tech, healthcare) to laggards (Energy, Financials, Transportation, REITS). It's already happening right now. XLE US is down 45% year to date, it is the ultimate laggard ! And you know what? Historical probability of worst laggard to move to the top five leaders of next year is 65%, odds are in our favor. The ETF showed strong momentum last week with a nice weekly hammer candlestick with strong volume, this is a bullish reversion pattern. Let's wait for confirmation on Monday's open, if it confirms, we are catching the first wave to a nice ride up ! up to recovery and post covid world. The vaccine wont be massively available and massively distributed before mid 2021 I believe, HOWEVER the stock market is merely the second order of the real economy, not the first order! It is the acceleration of the economy, so as soon as the vaccine is being shoot the first person, the widespread reopening will increase tremendously. Option 101 => acceleration = second order = GAMMA, we want to be long gamma right now => buy calls 3 months on XLE. To save some carry cost, i would suggest a strike at 110% of the current spot, this translate to a roughly 35% Delta. This is quite out of the money but i believe the volatility on this sector is going to up with the spot. my pick : call 31Mar2021 strike 37. Delta = 24%, Remember: this strategy makes sense if your portfolio is globally long tech, and please do not risk more than 5% of your portfolio value with the premium. This is not WSB :D
AMEX:XLELong
by MarketHitchhiker