Get started

Options

Trading the VIX - A Balanced Strategy for Smart InvestorsWarning: This strategy is presented as a trading idea and should not be considered guaranteed trading guidance. Traders are responsible for their own decisions and should carefully evaluate risks before executing any trades. Given that VIX is generally between 13 and 20, I designed this option strategy. Combination VIX Vertical Spreads Strategy Overview: Days to Expiry (DTE): 37 Option Positions: Buy VIX 13 Call Sell VIX 15 Put Sell VIX 20 Call × 2 Visualized Setup Strategy Summary: This strategy results in a combination resembling a modified short straddle centered at VIX 20. However, in structure, it is better understood as a short strangle (neutral) combined with a bull call spread (bullish). The bullish component of the spread suggests that the trader expects the VIX to rise above 13 but remain below 20. The inclusion of a short strangle component helps offset the premium of the debit call spread. This structured approach allows for a calculated risk-reward balance, aligning with the trader’s outlook on implied volatility while leveraging option spreads to optimize capital efficiency. Risk and Reward Assessment: The strategy is heavily weighted towards a long VIX bias, meaning the trader anticipates an increase in VIX, though at a measured pace within a month. There is a slight increase in risk to the short side of VIX due to the exposure created by the short options. The expected profit range suggests that VIX volatility will stay within a defined range of 14 to 24. While the trader acknowledges the possibility of VIX exceeding 20, it is not expected to surpass 24. The probability of profit at expiry is estimated at 65% if entered today. Despite the additional short-side risk, the overall risk remains comparable to a standard short strangle. Historical VIX data indicates that the index fluctuates between 12 and 40 on a monthly basis, with a 52-week high of 65.7 and a 52-week low of 10.6. This reinforces the strategy’s inherent higher risk to the long VIX side. Key Considerations for Execution: Event Risk: Confirm that no major events (e.g., geopolitical instability, Federal Reserve announcements) are expected that could push VIX above 30. Entry Timing: Optimal entry is when VIX is at a relatively low level, such as observed last Friday (2/7/2025) morning. Exit Strategy: The position should be closed in approximately two to three weeks or when profit exceeds 100%. Notes and Alternative Strategy: One challenge of this strategy is the uncertainty in determining a precise stop-loss strategy. However, given the nature of a strangle, there is no immediate need to exit within the first 20 days, making it a relatively "lazy" management strategy. The trader has ample time to adjust after the initial 20-day period. Management should be approached by treating the bull call spread and short strangle separately. Given the natural variance of VIX, this approach should not be overly difficult to execute. A suggested alternative strategy might provide more controlled risk exposure. For example, I would start the trade with a butterfly at 20 if I see the potential rise of VIX. Then, I would reassess it after 30 days (assuming DTE=37; a shorter DTE may also be considered). Alternatively, I could simply wait until expiration day to make a final decision. This strategy has a limited loss while maintaining a similar profit potential. The suggested strategy manages the cost-efficiency aspect while also limiting potential losses. The decision-making process can then be based on market direction after the expected conditions begin to form. In comparison to the original strategy in terms of profit and exit timing, the proposed strategy may offer a faster exit, whereas a butterfly setup may require waiting until expiration. However, traders may find early exits possible for condors or strangles. Here is a visualization of the alternative setup: Alternative Strategy Visualization Thank you for reading. Wish you a successful options trading!
TVC:VIXLong
by yungyeh
3
Nifty50 Trade Setup – February ExpiryAnalyzing the 7th Feb settlement prices using my proprietary OptionSigma model, a key level emerges: 23,698.80. 📌 Bullish Scenario: A clean breakout above 23,698.80 signals strength—potential long opportunities in Nifty February Futures or Monthly Call options. 📌 Bearish Scenario: Failure to breach this level? Shorting is the only play—either via futures or buying put options. ⚡ Stay sharp. Watch the price action around this level for confirmation! #Nifty50 #OptionsTrading #IndexTrading #OptionSigma #FNO #TradingStrategy
NSE:NIFTY1!
by IndexAce
WDC Western Digital Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought WDC before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of WDC Western Digital Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 65usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-3-21, for a premium of approximately $4.35. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:WDCLong
by TopgOptions
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MSFT when they reported 49% stake in OpenAI: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 430usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-2-21, for a premium of approximately $15.35. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TopgOptions
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week Critical Levels Se detailed image below: Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance. Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now. Gamma Conditions Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult. There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies. Summary Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher. Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800. IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum. There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic. Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
#Nifty50 Outlook for upcoming week 30-3rd Jan 2025The Nifty roared this week, gaining a solid 226 points, closing at a strong 23813! It reached a peak of 23938 before dipping to 23647. As predicted, the Nifty stayed within the 24100-23000 range, forming an interesting inside candle pattern. Excitingly, a bullish "W" pattern has emerged on the weekly chart! If the Nifty can hold above the crucial 23900 level next week, we could see it trading between 24300 and 23400 . However, while a bounce is expected, the bearish Monthly chart might tempt big players to unload their positions. Stay alert! Across the pond, the S&P500 took a 2.5% hit, closing at 5970 after reaching a high of 6049. The 5870-5850 support zone is critical. A breach could trigger a faster selloff, potentially testing the 5637/5551 support levels. For an upward move, the S&P500 needs to conquer 6050, paving the way for resistance levels at 6094/6142/6225. Bottom line: Use any bounce next week as an opportunity to lock in profits. Stay informed and trade wisely!" Wishing everyone a very happy & prosperous New Year.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11