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Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week Critical Levels Se detailed image below: Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance. Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now. Gamma Conditions Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult. There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies. Summary Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target. Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher. Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800. IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum. There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic. Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
2
#Nifty50 Outlook for upcoming week 30-3rd Jan 2025The Nifty roared this week, gaining a solid 226 points, closing at a strong 23813! It reached a peak of 23938 before dipping to 23647. As predicted, the Nifty stayed within the 24100-23000 range, forming an interesting inside candle pattern. Excitingly, a bullish "W" pattern has emerged on the weekly chart! If the Nifty can hold above the crucial 23900 level next week, we could see it trading between 24300 and 23400 . However, while a bounce is expected, the bearish Monthly chart might tempt big players to unload their positions. Stay alert! Across the pond, the S&P500 took a 2.5% hit, closing at 5970 after reaching a high of 6049. The 5870-5850 support zone is critical. A breach could trigger a faster selloff, potentially testing the 5637/5551 support levels. For an upward move, the S&P500 needs to conquer 6050, paving the way for resistance levels at 6094/6142/6225. Bottom line: Use any bounce next week as an opportunity to lock in profits. Stay informed and trade wisely!" Wishing everyone a very happy & prosperous New Year.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
Little bull call spread on StellantisI believe we are in the end of an accumulation. We had bad news lately about this company and his CEO. I don't want to own the stock, specially in this part of the economic cycle. This is purely a speculative trade. There is a divergence in the awesome oscillator marking a possible end of the bear trend and right after, a period of low volatility characteristic of accumulations as we can see in the multiple historical volatility oscillator below. A spring a few days ago confirmed there were strong buyers. Now we are against the trendline. So, I believe it's cheap (from ~€25 went down to ~€12,50) and it should make a bullish move shortly. Strategy: Bull call spread Expiration: 17 JAN 2025 (45 days to expiration) Legs = +2 calls 13 and -2 calls 14 Premium = 0.27 * 100 stocks * 2 q per leg = €54 Max gain= €146 Risk / Reward = 2.7 Commissions= €1.5 (only open) Break-even = From 13.27 (lower call + premium) Historical Volatility (45 days) = 35,85% Implicit Volatility = ~31% In English: If the underlying (the stock) arrives at 13.27 I start earning money. If it gets to 14 or if it surpasses this price, I get to the max reward. I can lose at the most €54 + commisions even if the stock goes to €1. The blue lines in the chart represent Breakeven, Max reward price and Expiration so I can follow the underlying. Now it's time to follow the DOM for each option. I hope this process of thought helps you in your trades, specially if you are now to options.
EURONEXT:STLAPLong
by NicolasRZ
12/09 Weekly SPX InsightsLast week’s assessment aligned well with the anticipated positive SPX range. The index moved sharply up toward the 6100 area, yet as Friday’s session progressed, the call resistance around 6100 capped further upward momentum. Looking ahead, I have doubts that the previously unbridled optimism will persist. Currently, we find ourselves in a “chop zone,” suggesting that the short-term direction is less clear. In aggregating GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels and examining the landscape a week out, it appears that 6100 remains a strong call resistance level. Meanwhile, the HVL (High Volatility Level) has crept closer to around 6080, placing the market uncomfortably close to a higher-volatility environment. Below 6080, the market may experience increased turbulence, potentially retesting 6035 and then 6000. On the other hand, if the index can break and hold above 6100, an upward gamma squeeze could emerge, pushing prices even higher. Currently, overall GEX sentiment is negative, but the approach toward the HVL zone suggests caution. From these conditions, I’m not expecting a strong, sustained rally in the immediate term. In terms of intraday and short-term dynamics, 0DTE (same-day expiry) sessions and Fridays continue to hold relatively higher positive gamma exposure compared to other days. Volatility indicators: VIX: remains low IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): also low Put Pricing Skew: currently low, although it has begun to show a very slight uptick Key Levels for This Week (for educational reference): Above 6100: Omni-bullish environment Between 6100–6065: Chop zone (directionally uncertain; not ideal for unhedged directional trades) Below 6080: Bearish tilt, with targets around T1: 6035 and T2: 6000 (near the 16-delta OTM put level) On Wednesday, inflation data is scheduled for release. Anticipation alone may drive volatility, so it’s something to keep on the radar for educational scenario planning.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
388.HK Stock option Short Put idea for Dec 2024Hello Trades, The Hang Seng Index experienced a single-day rebound in the days before and after the settlement, with significant increases in most constituent stocks. We are deploying a Hong Kong stock options strategy for next month. We will use the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as the center for our options strategy. We see that the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is currently in a consolidation range on the weekly chart. The strike price is between $260 and $290.
HKEX:388Long
by ICT_Trader_SB