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Little bull call spread on StellantisI believe we are in the end of an accumulation. We had bad news lately about this company and his CEO. I don't want to own the stock, specially in this part of the economic cycle. This is purely a speculative trade. There is a divergence in the awesome oscillator marking a possible end of the bear trend and right after, a period of low volatility characteristic of accumulations as we can see in the multiple historical volatility oscillator below. A spring a few days ago confirmed there were strong buyers. Now we are against the trendline. So, I believe it's cheap (from ~€25 went down to ~€12,50) and it should make a bullish move shortly. Strategy: Bull call spread Expiration: 17 JAN 2025 (45 days to expiration) Legs = +2 calls 13 and -2 calls 14 Premium = 0.27 * 100 stocks * 2 q per leg = €54 Max gain= €146 Risk / Reward = 2.7 Commissions= €1.5 (only open) Break-even = From 13.27 (lower call + premium) Historical Volatility (45 days) = 35,85% Implicit Volatility = ~31% In English: If the underlying (the stock) arrives at 13.27 I start earning money. If it gets to 14 or if it surpasses this price, I get to the max reward. I can lose at the most €54 + commisions even if the stock goes to €1. The blue lines in the chart represent Breakeven, Max reward price and Expiration so I can follow the underlying. Now it's time to follow the DOM for each option. I hope this process of thought helps you in your trades, specially if you are now to options.
EURONEXT:STLAPLong
by NicolasRZ
388.HK Stock option Short Put idea for Dec 2024Hello Trades, The Hang Seng Index experienced a single-day rebound in the days before and after the settlement, with significant increases in most constituent stocks. We are deploying a Hong Kong stock options strategy for next month. We will use the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as the center for our options strategy. We see that the stock price of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is currently in a consolidation range on the weekly chart. The strike price is between $260 and $290.
HKEX:388Long
by ICT_Trader_SB
MIDCPNIFTY Hits 3 Targets in Short Trade – TP4 Awaiting!In this short trade on the MIDCPNIFTY, three targets have already been met, reaching up to TP3 at 12605.25. We are currently watching for TP4 at 12499.35 to be achieved. Key Levels Entry: 13053.70 – A strong bearish signal triggered this short entry. Stop-Loss (SL): 13139.35 – Positioned above the entry to protect from upward movements. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 12947.85 – Achieved as part of the initial downward momentum. Take Profit 2 (TP2): 12776.55 – Hit following sustained selling pressure. Take Profit 3 (TP3): 12605.25 – Reached as bearish momentum continues. Take Profit 4 (TP4): 12499.35 – The final target, currently awaited. Trend Analysis The price remains comfortably below the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming a strong downward trend. Three targets have already been hit, and further downward momentum could see TP4 being reached.
NSE:MIDCPNIFTY1!Short
by ProfitsNinja
1
IBM International Business Machines Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought IBM before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of IBM International Business Machines prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-3-21, for a premium of approximately $8.35. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NYSE:IBMLong
by TopgOptions
1
Weekly GEX of QQQ | Option Chain AnalysisI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the QQQ option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the QQQ option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🟨 Decline in Put Pricing Skew and Increase in IVx The decline in put pricing skew on Options Oscillator suggests that put options are becoming relatively cheaper , signaling a shift in market participants' expectations. This indicates increased call buying and put writing activity in the options chain . Along with the decrease in implied volatility (IV), this often points to a lower demand for downside protection strategies, which could be interpreted as a bullish sentiment. Currently, the QQQ’s IVRank stands at 31.5, reflecting a moderate volatility environment. However, with an average IVx of 19.2, trading volumes could increase, and interest in volatility-based strategies may rise further. 🔶 Backwardation in 4-7 DTE and Time Spreads Backwardation in the 4-7 DTE (days to expiration) period can be ideal for time spread (calendar, diagonal) option traders , as near-term options show higher volatility than longer-term ones. This creates a favorable environment for time spread strategies, especially if this backwardation persists. 🟨 Gamma Levels and Open Interest-Based Levels Call high OI gamma walls (or call resistance levels) typically act as resistance points. However, once these levels are broken, the bullish movement can accelerate due to positive gamma exposure. Put gamma walls (or put support levels), on the other hand, act as support. If broken, downward moves can intensify due to the high negative gamma exposure. While the current largest gamma wall was for today at 495, the upcoming expiration on 10/14 could shift this level to 500, where the greatest gamma exposure will likely be after the Monday expiration (due to the large amount of open interest expiring at 495). If the price breaks above this level, it could further bolster bullish prospects to 505 (last ATH). Additionally, the 500 strike plays a critical role as a major level in the Options Grid System, representing the 8/8 level. 🟨 OTM 16 delta probability cloud in Options Overlay The blue Delta Curves on the Options Overlay show the 16-delta levels, helping traders identify potential price ranges. According to current data, on the call side, the 505 strike is still within the 16-delta range, reinforcing its bullish potential. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. 🟨 Time Spread Strategies The aforementioned backwardation and gamma wall situation may present an advantage for time spread traders. Backwardation between 4-7 DTE provides an optimal window for those favoring time spreads, as the higher short-term volatility offers better premiums. 🟨 TanukiTrade Options Oscillator values The TanukiTrade Options Oscillator indicates that the combination of declining put skew and decreasing IV suggests potential volatility growth on the bullish side of the market. This could be a valuable signal for both long and time spread strategies. ⅀ QQQ Summary The decline in put skew and increase in IVx imply that market participants are anticipating an increase in bullish volatility. Backwardation between 4-7DTE supports time spread strategies, while the call gamma wall at 500—and soon 505—is likely to serve as significant resistance/target. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TanukiTrade
4
Weekly GEX of SPX | Option Chain Analysis for Option TradersI’d like to share my thoughts below after analyzing the SPX option chain. In this analysis, I focus exclusively on the weekly time range, examining the SPX option chain and the changes in top-tier options metrics. 🔶 Breakout and Bullish Outlook Last Friday's price action saw the SPX break through the 5800 call gamma wall, generating strong bullish momentum . This breakout opens the door for further upward movement throughout the week, especially if buying pressure persists. Breaking through a call gamma wall often leads to a rapid price increase, as these levels act as resistance, but once broken, they support further upward moves. However, caution is advised, as additional call gamma levels (around 5850 and 5875) could act as resistance, where the price may stall. These levels can reverse roles and, if the price falters, could act as significant resistance, potentially leading to a pullback toward the 5800 level. 🔴 Put Skew and IVx Changes The put pricing skew on the Options Oscillator shows a declining trend, meaning that while put options are still more expensive than calls at equivalent strikes, this trend is softening when looking at the November expiration. This indicates a weakening of put options relative to calls, which could be another bullish signal as demand for puts may be declining. The five-day IVx average declining , indicating a decrease in market volatility = VIX is melting down. 🟨 Backwardation and Diagonal/Calendar Strategy Opportunities It's also worth noting the 10.5% backwardation based on the IV skew for the expirations between 10/18 and 10/21 (4/7DTE). This backwardation (downward sloping volatility curve) could benefit calendar and diagonal spread strategies, as options with different expirations have varying volatility conditions. 🔶 GEX Wall Levels: Where Is Support and Resistance? 🔹Gamma Exposure (GEX) levels continue to play a crucial role in the market’s movements: 🔹On the upside, the largest call gamma wall for the next 7 days is at 5850, while the 5875 level may also act as significant resistance. The 5875 is a more likely a realistic bullish target, supported by the Options Overlay’s blue OTM delta 16 probability curve. 🔹On the downside, the 5750 put support level currently offers strong support, with sellers forming a barrier here. The 5800 level is also interesting because it was the largest call gamma level last week, meaning there could be significant volatility as bulls and bears battle around this point. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available by the end of October.) 🟨 How Delta 16 Curves Define My Rational Price Range in Options Trading The blue OTM Delta 16 curves from the Options Overlay define the rational probability range for me based on a lognormal distribution. This is important because there’s a 68% chance the price will stay within this range by expiration. These values are also visible in the Overlay Expiry table. This represents the 68% probability range defined by OTM 16 delta PUTs and OTM 16 delta CALLs, showing a clear directional expected move value. It provides an insightful view of the expected price movement’s directional range, often used by delta-neutral strangle traders like those at TastyTrade. ⅀ SPX Summary The SPX options chain is showing a bullish direction with the breakout above 5800, but it will be key to watch the gamma levels where the market might stall this week. The rising IV and declining put skew trend could provide further signals that the bull market might continue, but the possibility of resistance or a pullback remains. For those considering diagonal strategies, the backwardation may offer interesting opportunities to capitalize on. (NOTE: GEX levels is not part of the TanukiTrade Options Overlay indicator yet. The automatic GEX levels will be available soon, by the end of October!)
SP:SPXLong
by TanukiTrade
TIGR UP Fintech Holding Limited Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought TIGR before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TIGR UP Fintech Holding Limited prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 4usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-1-17, for a premium of approximately $0.72. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NASDAQ:TIGRLong
by TopgOptions
Bear or Bull? We got bothAMEX:SPY 📊 AMEX:SPY Options Range: $572 to $574.73 📜 $574 CALL 10/18 Entry: 15-30 min CLOSE ABOVE $574.73 Target: $578 📜 $574 PUT 10/18 Entry: Rejection and 15-30 min CLOSE BELOW $574.73 Target: $572, Trend support (Currently at $571) A rare occurrence of a green September. We expect extremely high volatility over the next 4-6 weeks, especially considering the election and the polarizing nature of the candidates. We could see heavy volatility within the semiconductor space. A 10-15% pullback in semiconductors would also bring down the major indices as they are a heavy component. We have seen how fragile this market is (8/5/24). Last week, our call went for 60%+. This week, let's see.
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois