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SPY analysis-option and fundmental the big topic of this month and July has been RECESSION . I believe it depends all on the labour market now if we start to see increasing unemployment that could tip us into a recession. this is why I am short on the SPY because I believe this rally will fizzle out because there have been no real positive changes in the macroeconomics currently to fuel this rally, today we have initial jobless claims which will give us a good insight to which way the labour market is moving. which now is the main factor into the decision if we are going into a recession because the realized strength of the consumer is purely based on them receiving an income. Because of their credit card debt, the US consumer heavily relies on credit cards which could possibly mean with the labour market becoming weaker consumer spending could decrease even further as this has already started to happen. another sign that supports my view is that implied volatility has decreased and the lower the implied volatility the lower the premium paid for the option which means it will fall in value. as well as a put-to-call ratio of 1.265 which shows an increase of negativity around the SPY. currently, we have a volatility smirk for the SPY which is where the implied volatility for lower strike prices so this means investors are buying more puts(short position). this option analysis gives us a good insight into which way the SPY will move. on a micro company level, the cost of debt is increasing because of Hawkish rate hikes. if the cost of debt increases the weighted average cost of capital will increase(WACC) so for a company to be creating value its return on invested capital has to be higher than WACC. the reason I have included this is that i gives a good insight into what is actually causing these companies' value to decrease.
AMEX:SPYShort
by harrybergin
3
Safer way to Be long BABA DOTM 80 PutHi everyone, China this am came out with a better tone toward their tech industry and markets. Assuming that geo political events do not get worse between the USA vs China. I am making a Long term asset accumulation bet on Alibaba 1) I discuss straight stock asset ownership vs 2) Getting an income by selling the deep out of the money 80 strike September put for $9.15 resulting in a 11.43% ROI as of this writing, also providing us a safety of margin from current $97 price to 70.85 assignment cost 2 Outcomes a) stocks goes up and stay above the 80 strike by the September Expiration date we pocket the 11.43% or $9.15 b) Stocks tank below 80 get called and I own Alibaba stock the asset, at a price I already decided was a comfortable and good support around (assignment price $80-9.15)=70.85 Hope it helps this strategy is only valid with two things in mind 1)buy asset you love and want to keep for the long term 2)be prepared to hold if it goes below 70.85 and be confident enough of the long term 5-20 years for the underlying stock as an asset in this case Alibaba Hope it helps Marc
NYSE:BABALong
by PowerIndicators
6
NIO Long The Safer Way 15 strike Nov Earning day play: SELL DOTM PUT NIO 18 NOV22 FOR $2.13 Strike 15 ROI =15/2.13= 14.3 % Target support zones 13-16 target resistance 27-30 *** 2 outcomes a) Stocks close above 15 By EXP in November we make an income 14.3% b) Stock Tanks because of delisting fears or geo political USA china We get the asset stock at 15 strike - credit received $2.13= $12.87 Safety of margin current stock price 22-12.87= 9.13 trade structure safer Hope it helps Marc
NYSE:NIOLong
by PowerIndicators
18
Tommorow nifty level We see nifty bullish until it's touch the level of 17900-18200 our max target of nifty was that only after that we see some selling in it . For tomorrow our view was bullish bcz of positive view and chart we see in Friday nifty creat a fine breakout was W-pattern and close on them soo tomorrow there was gap up opening of more thn 40 point if there was no gap up opening then buy nifty above 17175 our target was 17200 17240 17300 and full and final target for tomorrow is 17350-380 SL 17140 buy call position according to that And for down side if nifty break 17140 level to down side thn our target was 17115 17075 17020 sl 17175
NSE:NIFTYShort
by devved19
TATA MOTORSHello and welcome to this analysis based on Harmonic Trading Patterns In the daily time frame it has made a Bearish Harmonic ABCD pattern with perfect balance symmetry. It could retrace down to 440 - 430 as long as it does not trade above 461 As per Option Data also July Series 460CE is seeing fresh shorts being added and 440PE is seeing short covering. While August Series 460CE has already formed a very strong OI resistance with more being added currently.
NSE:TATAMOTORSShort
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
Important Nifty LevelsLooking at the EU and US markets, expecting NIFTY to trade in a very range bound market... 16700 ~ 16770 look to be good resistance zone (CPR resistance levels 16703) 16500 - 16500 look to be good support zone (CPR support levels 16561) OI a. Call writing is quite high at 17K, even 16.7K has good OI b. Put writing at 16.5K has nearly 6 million contracts 20 delta iron condor for 28th July looks to be in good range, buying tighter hedges will improve the RR and is looking good to provide 3% returns
NSE:NIFTY
by radhakrishna108
Updates of Options Strategy on Wheat FuturesCBOT:ZW1! On June 15th, I issued an options trading strategy on CBOT Wheat Futures. At the time, I expected wheat price to experience a very large move but was unsure of its direction. Consequently, I recommended a Long Strangle options strategy : Purchase both an out-of-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on September Wheat Futures. The original trading idea may be found here: . Let’s review how this trade performed five weeks after its initiation: Initial market conditions on June 14th: • September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel. • An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. • An OTM put with a $9.00 strike is quoted at 4.625 cents. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you could lose if wheat price did not break out the upper ceiling or fall through the lower floor set by the strikes. At this writing on July 18th: a) ZWU2 futures is quoted at $7.81/bushel, down $2.73 or -26%. Our expectation of big price move is proven to be correct . b) Call options with $12.00 strike price is quoted at 10 cents, down 7 cents. Even though futures price declines, there is still time value in the OTC call options. c) Put options with $9.00 strike is quoted at 85.5 cents, up 1749%. Due to the nonlinear nature of options pricing, our put is hugely profitable as it is now $1.19 deep in-the-money. What can we do today? There are two options: 1) Sell both the call and put with offsetting trades. The call would realize a loss of $350, and the put has a profit of $4,043.75, making the combined total at $3,693.75. Taking the $1,081.25 premium we paid upfront as our cost base, gross profit will be $2,612.5 per contract, or +242% return in a five-week holding period. 2) Hold the positions . There are five more weeks left before the August 26th options expiration, and wheat price could make bigger move. For illustration purpose, let’s use today’s price as exercise price. The Call would expire worthless as it is out-of-the-money, and we lose the $850 initial investment. However, by exercising the put, we gain $1.19 (=9.00-7.81) per bushel, and $5,950 per contract. The combined gross profit will be $4,018.75, or +372% . Why does this trade work? The key lies with a properly set-up strategy. It’s time to revisit our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium In February through May, the Russia-Ukraine conflict put a huge Crisis Premium on wheat price, driving it from $8 to $12-$13, before moving lower to around $10. Since June, surging inflation, aggressive rate hikes, and recession fears overtake supply concerns as the main market driver. As fighting in Ukraine drags on, the impact from crisis diminishes, and Bearish Market Sentiment takes over. Commodities markets from energy, metals to agricultural products all suffered a huge loss. Looking forward, I expect that Intrinsic Value, or traditional supply and demand factors, would come back as key market mover. The recently released World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture set a bearish tone in the grain market, sending wheat price to fall further. For our CBOT Wheat Strangle options trade, I favor closing the positions now over holding it to expiration. Here is my reasoning: In a classic economic supply and demand chart, fundamental factors move market price along the supply line and demand line. Price movement tends to be moderate and within a narrow band. This is what the Wheat price chart shows before February 24th. On the contrary, crisis premium pushes either the supply line or the demand line to shift sideway, resulting in big price jumps. In the case of Wheat futures, investors are concerned that a loss of Russian wheat would reduce global supply by as much as 25%. Wheat price responded by a series of limit-up days and jumped 40% in two weeks. Note that daily price limit (up or down) on wheat futures is 70 cents per bushel. In the absence of conflict escalation in Ukraine, volatility in wheat price would likely stay muted going forward. Additionally, time value, which is part of the options premium, will decrease quickly as contract expiration nears. In the Black-Scholes Model, options price is positively correlated with volatility. Expected low volatility combined with diminishing time value will make it difficult for our Long Options to increase in value. This is my argument against holding on to the options. As the likelihood of global recession grows, food crisis will stay on as a major global issue in 2022 and 2023. Famine could hit weaker economies. Agricultural commodities will be a good risk management tool to hedge the rising food cost. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
21
AMZN Options Plays THIS WEEK 7/18 to 7/22Watching this week to see if price can get ABOVE 116.61 If it does with clear strong buying I am going to be open to playing CALLS into 120.57 and it is very possible we get the breakout to ~125 If price is showing weakness and cannot get above those levels I will also be open to playing CALLS below 111 and possibly 105 but I think a reversal to the upside is underway I am open to playing PUTS above 124.53 Very hard for me to be bearish unless price starts pushing into 105 and BUYERS are not showing up.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by TheFibonacciKing
First time CE PE VWAP line in Future ChartVery first time CE & PE VWAP line bring into future chart in indices( Banknifty & Nifty ) option trading. Many times options players missing some important piece of information who is in control and where is peak level Bull & Bear standing in dynamic structure. The decay also accordingly melt premium vice versa in CE/PE. In option trading, this indicator resolve overall volatility , equilibrium level, peak level of bull & bear & Breakout level in ONE CHART easy to take quick decision. If you plot see this indicator in future corresponding Call & put option (ATM strike) the red & blue line breakout candle same of your CE/PE VWAP line or one side VWAP of either CE or PE. When price touched any of these line the future price make explosive move. Its NON LAGGING & NON REPAINT INDICATOR You may check your option chart VWAP line the corresponding candle blue line and red crossing.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by manis12345
3
Amazon earnings Hey guys, I’m really looking forward to amazing earnings! Little biased here leaning towards the topside although my options spread does include bottom side cover. I noticed Amazon broke out of the diagonal trend last week which I took some profits on… And retested yesterday with a little bit of a pop. I’m expecting to see some excitement (next week) before earnings and planning on opening other straddle (earnings week) favouring the downside into early September. This options spread cost around 9.5 credits and I feel fresh having both ends covered until Aug 19.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by ImminentDanger
BANKNIFTY FUTURE INTRADAY VIEW:-EXPIRY DAYI told day before yesterday that banknifty will fall first and then in next day, it will again rise. Banknifty reacts exactly the same as I predicted. BNF buy above 34370 Target:-34800 As per open interest, 34000PE added huge OI and 34500CE, 35000CE seems equal OI which indicates a rally !! Once if breaks and manages above 34560 will try to move 34800 levels support:-34250, 34150 and 34000 (Strong support zone) Banknifty index may open gap up above 34500 to test break out point @34627. Here watch Bank nifty has to sustain above it to move up towards 34800. Be alert if Bank nifty unable to hold above break out point then may slip towards 34300 and 34113.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!Long
by biplab86
In Search of an Edge for Non-Professional TradersCBOT:ZW1! What do Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat have in common? Their prices all go up in a global crisis. In other words, these strategically important commodities are positively correlated with the level of risk. “Risk Up, Price Up; and Risk Down, Price Down”. Everyday non-professional traders (NonProfs) usually have a disadvantage trading these futures contracts. Let’s see who we are up against: • Commercial Firms, including producers, processors, merchants, and major users of the underlying commodities. • Financial Institutions, such as investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers, proprietary trading firms, commodity trading advisors and futures commission merchants. These professional traders (Profs) have industry knowledge, market information, research capabilities, trading technologies, high-speed and seemingly unlimited amount of money. They contribute to about 80% of trading volume for a typical futures contract. So, what could you do in an uphill battle? Recall our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model( ): Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Global Crisis Premium In peaceful times, the coefficient of Crisis Premium is zero. The Profs win out easily. When a global crisis breaks out, price pattern may be altered completely. The chart illustrates how CBOT Wheat Futures behaves before and after the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict. Based on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), a baseline futures price reflects all information regarding the Intrinsic Value and Market Sentiment factors. However, the Crisis Premium is unknown to all of us. The Profs could not use fundamental analysis or technical analysis to gain a better understanding of Mr. Putin’s mindset. Few had inside information of the inner working of the Kremlin or the Russian generals, either. Your guesses are just as good as the Profs when it comes to what’s happening next. An analogue: In a close-range hand combat, the Profs have no use for their arsenal of missiles, fighter jets and tanks. NonPros with limited resources are on an equal footing to trade against the Profs. It’s critical to pick a fight that you have a chance to win. Recall that we discussed how to define global crisis with binary outcomes, and select financial instruments based on their responses to those outcomes. ( ) For CBOT Wheat Futures, Ukraine conflict has become the dominant price driver since February 14th. But after four months, we still have no clue when or how the war could end. Let’s define it in two simple outcomes: War and Peace. The first one includes all scenarios that the war would continue or intensify, where the second one could be a peace deal or a victory in favor of either Russia of Ukraine. As a NonProf, you don’t want to dive deep into the impossible task of forecasting the different scenarios. Keep it simple: War = Risk Up, Peace = Risk Down. The probability of either outcome is real. It’s difficult to predict which one is more likely. Therefore, directional trades of Long or Short are both risky. Many event shocks exist to make the wheat price fluctuate. If a major wheat producing country announces an export ban, wheat price could fly because of global market shortage. However, a phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy could punch wheat price to the ground. Russia is the No. 1 wheat exporter. An end of the conflict could end the sanctions against Russia and increase global supply by 44 million tons of wheat. Looking back in 2018 and 2019, we know how strongly Gold Futures reacted to a call between the U.S. and China. A Long Strangle options strategy may be appropriate under these circumstances. Investor would purchase a Call and a Put option with a different strike price: an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option and an OTM put option simultaneously on the same wheat futures contract. This is based on my belief that wheat futures price could experience a very large movement, but I am unsure of which direction the move will take. The following is an illustration (not an actual trading strategy): September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel on June 14th. An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. An OTM put with a $9.00 strike price is quoted at 4.625 cents. Look at the chart again, you will see wheat price at $7.80 right before the war and up to $13.70 in early March. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you would lose if wheat price stuck at current level in the next two months. A big move, either up or down, could make one of the two trades profitable, and hopefully with enough profit margins to cover the other losing trade. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!
by JimHuangChicago
4
Bear Call SpreadAs i discussed in my last post if Nifty reaches to my Reasistance zone I will create an Option Strategy so i did created "Bear Call Strategy" by selling a Call of 15700 and against that Anchor unit bought an offset uinit of call 15950 for perfet spread i want to buy 16000 CE but it was not liquid at that time and was available only for Intraday you can't convert it to Holdings. Here i want to state that both calls are of next expiry as a day after tommorow is expiry day and i didn't want that my options epires worthless. "TRADE RIGHT, SIT TIGHT"
NSE:NIFTYShort
by r7888911518