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Eve & Adam Double Bottom confirmation on Costco ($COST)Earlier this month, Costco made confirmation of an Eve & Adam Double Bottom chart pattern as it began seeing daily closes above the mid range between lows. This pattern indicates a fairly high probability (about 88%) of a bullish reversal relative to the sell off which from the recent all-time high (571.49) achieved on December 29th, 2021. Today, the price is within 10 points of the all-time high. I'll be looking over the coming weeks to see what happens next, and for possible positions. From here, I see one of two likely outcomes over the near term: A) COST breaks out above the previous high and likely has a forcible move to the upside, or... B) COST gets rejected from the current levels in the near term and has a pullback to somewhere around $520 In the case of A , I'll be looking to short either with a PUT spread, or potentially straight up long PUTs - which have a greater risk/reward but are enticing considering the macro picture of the broader market/economy as a whole. In the case of B , I'd shop for a long position with some kind of CALL spread. The statistics indicate that track B has about a 2/3 chance of playing out. This could be even more advantageous because it could potentially offer both decent long and short opportunities over the next few months. We'll have to see where the chips fall.
NASDAQ:COSTLong
by InnerMotionTrading
1
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 11 Mar Expiry (Mar Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I entered this position as I believe that we are currently in a sideways bearish situation. The markets took huge dips since late Nov to Jan and while it has recovered some of that loss. The S&P and especially the NASDAQ show that at least for now, the constant bold bullish days are narrowing Even though I am taking a sideways bearish stance. I still sold calls as we have just gotten out from a terrible 3 months of nose bleed drops and I think there will be some respite where market participants will try to determine what is the next direction Writing calls also allow me to develop a hedge on the other trades which will be bearish I Feel I entered this trade on Monday and it feels almost clinical as it was already part of my plan and the indexes were aligned I would have liked to get a better price to weather some potential volatility but it is a decent price at 0.71 I would have also preferred to have this trade expire on the 4th March way before the mid March inflation implementations Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side I would be slightly worried as the market in the past 2 days have been bullish. Also I did try to initially take a sold PUT trade, but the prices for them and the % from strike were not optimal. I guess the market expects more bullishness? Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer VXX eats alot of margin fast as it is also a reflection of the tech stocks. And that could limit the fund’s movements. Regardless of direction I think with a good 63% of space between the entry and strike is prudent Look For New Information I am accepting that if the market does furiously dip too fast and too hard. I might be in a difficult position. The good news is that the major Tech earnings are over. How Do I Feel Now I neither feel happy or worried. Just somewhat clear but edgy given what we have just gone through in Nov - Jan Trade Specs Sold 125 Calls @ 0.71 - Strike 33 % to Strike 63% ATR 64% BP used is 91k Max Gain: 8875
AMEX:VXX
by Ronin_trader
4
JWN Bearish inclined Naked Calls 11 Mar Expiry (Mar Track 2)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought I identified this trade by looking at Finviz Groups and shortlisted the mid volatility Industry players (1 Month bull, 2 - 1 Week bearish). This was because I wanted to be trading in industries with less volatile price movements. Previously for the past 4 months I have been trading in industries at the forefront of any movement. Travel, Banks, VXX JWN is part of the department store industry and has seen a huge dip (20%) on the 24 Nov due to lacklustre results. While I don’t expect any huge dips in the near future, I also don’t expect huge bullish jumps especially with the current climate The other department store counters I explored were M and KSS. I liked KSS’s price movement also as it already spiked on the 24 Jan due acquisition news. M did not provide a good price for options contracts I Feel I felt good for this trade and tactic as I have adjusted by trade selection and strike prices towards a volatile market bearish ranging market. This means I will take extra far strikes, even through it means sacrificing some alpha Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side I would feel afraid given all the negative news on Ukraine and Inflation. I do not think I would take this trade on the opposite side at all. Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer While there is confidence in selling calls, there is also the earnings release on the 1 Mar. But given the entire market I think this is a safe bet. There is enough room for the price to rise (33% from strike) and it expires on the 11 March just before the release of the Interest rate increase (Week 14 Mar). Look For New Information I am clearly rejecting the risk of earnings and if I am wrong in this trade. This would probably be the reason. How Do I Feel Now I feel confident since was planning it and since I entered. This is a good trade and if it goes south it would either be because of me ignoring Earnings or just how the world turns. Trade Specs Sold 270 Calls @ 0.33 - Strike 27 % to Strike is 33% ATR is 55% BP used is 55k
NYSE:JWNShort
by Ronin_trader
2
XRT Bullish inclined Naked Puts 26 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought Bullish Stance XRT are retail discretionary companies and right now there seems to be alot of optimism. Consumers seem to be find paying for the current rising prices of products. I think will continue with the festive period Sep Consumer Spending has lost momentum but still grew at 1.4% Sep Personal income was up 0.9% Current price has broken a key S&R line at 98. My targetted Stike is 86.5 and is below another S&R line 89. Price to strike is around 14% seems decent especially since the current price movement is very bullish I Feel Feel ready to trade, slightly impatient cause I want to lock this in Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side Inflation related concerns might hit anything consumer fronting hard and with the 4 Dec review on the Debt ceiling there might be some concerns and media coverage as we get closer Bit concern as I was expending to trade in a sideways bearish volatile movement. But the past 2 weeks have made the market very clearly bullish. Trading my original plan seems almost contrarian Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer There is optimism in this trade, however the long cancel on the 3 Nov seems unnaturally long. This means it might gap back into the range But the bullish momentum matches the current market sentiment and if we are being pure in trading what is in front of us and not making predictions. This is the right decision Look For New Information Top 9 out of the top 10 holdings are all up with AEO the highest at 6.26% (American Eagle Outfitters) How Do I Feel Now I think this and my VXX trade is very aligned and while it opposes my early market reading - Sideway Bearish Volatile. Purely trading what is in front of me is a clearly Strong Bullish Trade Specs Sold 0.38, 70 Put Contracts @ Strike 86.5 % to Strike 14% ATR % is around 50% BP used 60k Max Gain: est $2660
AMEX:XRTLong
by Ronin_trader
2
OIH Monthly Candle Breakout11 month accumulation with a large range expansion away from the mode. My strategy to trade this was jan 2023 $285 calls for the lower premium. ATM calls are also a good strategy at a significantly higher premium so it depends on your portfolio size and the position size you're aiming for. For options I choose to never exceed 5% portfolio size per trade and I set my stop at a 50% loss (for actual stocks I don't use this rule, just options). You can trade a smaller position size but I wouldn't recommend going above 5% of your total portfolio. Even with far OTM calls, I'm already at about 13% profit since there's been some nice movement since I originally charted this 3 weeks ago. At around 20% profit I will likely adjust my stop to around 10% profit and then trail.
AMEX:OIHLong
by Trade_Integrity
Trade idea on Walmart - WMTJust as an idea: Cash secured put on Walmart, with a strike price of $134 (delta 23) and an expiry of Feb. 18, 2022. Trade would to be closed on Feb. 16, 2022, 1 day before the quarterly results, which will be published on Feb. 17, 2022, before market opening. The $134-$135 area has successfully acted as support four times over 1 year. Whether it will do it another time is of course uncertain! The additional purchase of the cheaper put with strike price 115$ reduces the margin and creates a bull put spread. This trade idea is one of the 222 trade ideas from my book "The Stock Market Year 2022: Which stocks go up and when?" Disclaimer: This trade idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or financial instruments. Investment in securities and financial instruments (especially options) are generally associated with risks, up to total loss of the invested capital and above. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.
NYSE:WMT
by Optionopedia
Will the FED be able to control inflation? Spy outlookSp500 ended the day continuing to form a bear flag. We are still in a bearish market. I am short term bearish, short term bullish and long term bearish First let me explain why I'm bearish next week then bullish. There are a few reasons why i think the market will drop to around 3829.75 - 4016.75 The moving averages are color coded Blue - Daily 200 MA Purple - weekly 50 MA Orange - Weekly 100 MA Green - Weekly 200 MA 1st - on April 5th 2021, where the red rectangle is, there is a small gap we are probably going to fill before heading up 2nd - the trendline starting from February 5th 2018 is well respected. I see a bounce off the top of the trendline next week 3rd - the Daily 200 MA was rejected and found support at the weekly 50 MA. Bulls fought hard but support looks relatively weak. 4th - global events are spooking the market. Inflation/fed and rate hikes starting in March, tension between Ukraine and Russia. Overall market doesn't look good. After the drop I expect a relief rally before the real drop comes. A drop from the highs down to the bottom trendline is around 60% 1 year from now. 2007 drop was around 54%. Previous corrections were around 30 to 50 % This correction I'm expecting a bigger drop because of how overvalued the market is. My trade plan: buy Feb 21st and 28th calls and start building a long position when price gets to 4010 and shows confirmation of a reversal or bounce off the main trendline. If we drop more to 3829.75 I would load up heavy on calls. HOLD CALLS SHORT TERM ... I would sell and slowly build my put position as price hits the .382 .5 and .618 retracement level of the high to low swing from ATH. Watch the .782 level as a close above this level on the daily chart will invalidate this idea.. I would put a stop loss above the .782 retracement If you like my ideas make sure to like and follow!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by moneysignSean
1