Options-strategy
$BABA high P/L debit spread +170% TP with options #baba #alibabaAlibaba suffered the past one year.
My last trade was an $BABA Iron Condor, closed in profit:
Now it's time to play for some bullish bounce.
Reasons:
* Bullish volume, +10% in one day.
* Oversold smooth RSI
* Reasonable setup before event
* Bullish action candle
Max profit: $1100
Probability for 50% of Profit: 50%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 170%
Req. Buy Power: $396 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 45 (average implied volatility rank)
Expiry: 15 days
Buy 3 BABA Jan14' 130 Call
Sell 3 BABA Jan14' 135 Call
Summary, 3 debit call spreads for 1.32db each.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing BELOW the red line, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$250.
Take profit strategy: 65% of max.profit in this case with auto sell order at 3.75cr for each position OR reaching the profit target level ($135 price lvl) - whichever occurs first.
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
IWM Put Credit Spread (see related) into a ICIWM continued to fall today, so I decided to look on the call side to turn this into an Iron Condor.
Why?
1. Condors do not increase margin over a spread
2. IWM has been range bound
3. Large cushion past 2 resistance points
4. Additional Credit recieved
Opened Feb 2nd 236/238 IC for a 0.22 cent credit.
XRT Bullish inclined Naked Puts 17 Dec Expiry (Dec Track 2)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Feels like a safe position given that the market is seeming very bullish at the moment
XRT has also broken a key resistance line and that transforms it into a solid support line
XRT are retail discretionary companies and right now there seems to be alot of optimism. Consumers seem to be find paying for the current rising prices of products. I think will continue with the festive period
Feds are probably not going to increase interest rates in Dec so we can expect that to not be a concern
I Feel
Solid and Confident
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
As a fact the inflation rate is high and it has already impacted wages and prices.
Prices of durable goods are high vs last year
Supply chain issues that are resulting in retailers unable to cope with demand is still not solved and this will have an impact on business that do not have ample reserves to sell
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
While inflation is a concern the market is showing a lot of bullishness
This feels very straight forward
Look For New Information
Nothing new
How Do I Feel Now
I'm confident to pull the trigger
Trade Specs
Sold 0.65, 85 Put Contracts @ Strike 89
% to Strike 12%
ATR % is Around 21%
BP used 75k
Max Gain: est $5525
VXX Bearish inclined Naked Calls 26 Nov Expiry (Nov Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
Market Bullish Stance
The overall market seems to be back on it's bull run. This is reflected on the SPY and NDX who have both made new highs
Sep Consumer Spending has lost momentum but still grew at 1.4%
Sep Personal income was up 0.9%
These factors, including the upcoming festive year end period. With less COVID19 restrictions should result in an increase in consumer spending with an appitite to accept raising prices (At least for this quarter)
Est price to strike is around 54% which is a pretty good buffer and is around it's previous high. This is shielded by an S&R line at 28.5
I Feel
Confident and safe
I'm happy with the risk profile and it is also 50% hedging my RVLV trade
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
We could be at the bottom and a retracement is a possibility at least short term
We expected Nov's market to be bearish volatile so this bullishness might be short term
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
Strike to price distance seems safe
If we read the market for what it is now. It is bullish
While some volatility might come as we close Dec due to the US debt ceiling
Look For New Information
US debt ceiling implications and the upcoming review date on the 3 Dec will cause some market volatility. For now while the country has a short reprieve from the threat of default, Yellen said some investments in funds through December 3 will remain suspended
How Do I Feel Now
Ready to enter!
Trade Specs
Sold 70 Calls @ 0.40 - Strike 30
% to Strike 46%
ATR % is Around 12%
BP used 65k
Max Gain: est $2800
$MSFT iron condor for 33% profit, 83% PoP #tradingHigh IVR, I'm not leaving money on the table.
Max profit: $250
Probability of 50%Profit: 83%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 33%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $755 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 80 (ultra high for Microsoft)
Expiry: 50 days
SETUP: IC for $MSFT, because IVR ultra high, collecting 2.5cr
* Buy 1 MSFT Jan21' 290 Put
* Sell 1 MSFT Jan21' 300 Put
* Sell 1 MSFT Jan21' 360 Call
* Buy 1 MSFT Jan21' 370 Call
SAFETY ZONES: : Prev. resistance could act as support at ~$306, prev.ATH could act as resistance at $338.
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200.
Take profit strategy: 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 1.25db
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
$MU | Watchlist #1 | 12/27 - 12/31 MU 94 BOUNCE
or 92.7-93 BOUNCE
Strategy:
Post earnings report rally
Buy into weakness at the bounce levels
News Catalyst: "Micron Technology (MU) shares were up nearly 5% to trade at $94.84 on Thursday, as more than 25 million shares changed hands shortly before 2:30 p.m. EST. Over the past five trading sessions, Micron has risen more than 16%, compared to a 1.7% gain for the S&P 500." - seekingalpha.com
$EEM naked PUT, high PoP #option #trade #Trades #OptionsTrading The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF is a good choice for today high IVR credit trade. High PoP, very predictable profit.
Reasons:
- high reward for Jan21 monthly expiry (mangeable with rolling) -> collecting credit
- breakeven point is far
- RSI is oversold.
Max profit: $92
Probability of 50%Profit: 84%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 14%
Req. Buy Power: $633 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 104 (very high)
Expiry: 49 days
SETUP : NAKED PUT for $EEM, because IVR is high, for 0.92cr
* Sell 1 $EEM JAN21'46 PUT
Management : ROLLING if daily candle is closing below of BE.
Take profit strategy : 50% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.46db
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
$BABA highest IVR in this year = bullish Iron Condor #tradingAlibaba IVR is 170 without event?! No way.. I'm literally waiting these rocket IVR days in this year!
Chinese stocks are dumping hard. Alibaba Group is maybe the biggest and the best to play with some bullish IC.
Max profit: $230
Probability of 50%Profit: 81%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 30%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 170 (high for )
Expiry: 49 days
SETUP: IC for 2.3cr, because IVR ultra high
* Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 80 Put
* Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 90 Put
* Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 150 Call
* Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 160 Call
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200.
Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.92db
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
#AVGO - PUT Opportunity#AVGO is at all time highs recently gapping up however if you pulled the FLOW on Unusual Whales yesterday the 13th you quickly saw that the FLOW was 73% bearish with extremely large PUTS and Sold Calls being placed against AVGO for this friday's experation played the $600 PUT and already mid way through the day am up 170%
UAL Bullish inclined Naked Puts 10 Dec Expiry (Dec Track 1)Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought
This trade is slightly risky as it is not an ETF. But it's current price movement mirrors JETS etf and this will allow me to get a decent price based on my outlook on travel as a sector
Overall we are seeing Leisure and Hospitality with the largest job gains (Oct data). However in terms of Job postings, while all sectors are seeing increases. Hospitality & Tourism have the lowest postings
If you look at the high Job Gains and the low Job Postings. We can make the assumption that people are filling up Leisure and Hospitality jobs easily but the supply of jobs is just not enough for the number of candidates available.
This also means that the Leisure and Hospitality sector are being very very cautious and this is reflecting in the price movements despite the largely bullish S&P moves. However it is not contrarian, just dulled and pensive
UAL in Oct has also posted higher than expected revenue but is still below 2019 numbers (Before COVID19)
UAL has made higher lows in the past 2 months
I Feel
I feel I have a good assumption that is a reflection of the current market movement. I am also not predicting any direction in my analysis
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
This is an easy position to take the other side even if I was bullish. The price is currently ranging and while it has previously broken the resistance line at 51. It has whipped back below the line.
It is possible for it to continue to range down to 43.20 and still hold true to my thoughts on the sector
Imagine Yourself As A Neutral Observer
This trade is slightly worrying based on the position of the Strike within the range.
But if I follow the overall market bullishness I feel we are at least standing on the right side of the fence.
Look For New Information
No new information, but current price movement on the 15 Nov has not followed Friday's drop and feels like it is testing the S&R line
How Do I Feel Now
I'm going to look at it from an hour, breath and then enter if nothing comes up
Trade Specs
Sold 160 Puts @ 0.33 - Strike 44
% to Strike 12.23%
ATR % is around 1%
BP used 70k
Max Gain: est $5280
AAPLAAPL just continues to head Bullish, even with the market being Choppy. Volume indicator looks solid, Fib lines indicating this could be heading to 180 then 183. Currently holding some 3/18 180c and some 1/21 185c. Looking to hold these a little longer. What do you guys think? Let me know what your targets are.
#AAPL #options #Optionstrading #tradingview
Never time The Market, right?When it comes to your long term portfolio, please Dollar Cost Average into the S&P 500. Which I will explain how to in detail in my next post.
However today I just want to show a small swing trading strategy theory I will try for fun. The reason I prefer the idea of swing trading is because it requires you to set your candle sticks to 4h,1d, or sometimes even 1 week. This is good because the more time range each candle stick has the more significance a simple trading pattern will have. In other words trend lines (support/resistance) will be respected.
Its very difficult to trade with the market average unless you have a significant amount of capital, and even then your better off on other investments/trades. That's what got my head on option trading; this is a high risk and high reward form of trading. You either lose it all or you make a big return (rough explanation). All this being said that's why I think the S&P 500 is the perfect environment for option trading. I believe if you call/put when the candle hits the trend line you will almost always win; and for breakouts you can wait for the re-bounce.
Please let me know what you think!