Contracting IVR and Channel formation The start of September IVR picked up and we can see a series of red candles within that same time range. Now as IVR settles back down to its stable range then there should be less dramatic movement in the stock price.
Should price continue within the current range then being able to play with price between the two values would be a manageable trade with appropriate trade execution.
Options-strategy
BABA descending channel - Jan 1 thoughtslooking at Fib retracement along the channel trying to gauge a reasonable scenario.
A $130 target for Jan 1 is well within the existing data trend. Looking at options for early Feb in that range.
One caveat is that our last two months are typically big for online retailers, which may buoy BABA a bit.
$ABNB will be $181.00 by Dec 2nd -Fib flag formation So I did two fib growth pitchforks..
—one mod schiff Bearish and one original recipe bullish, and that’s an obvious flag formation, double major resistance at $180 to $182
If I was a betting man I would bet a debit call spread with the short call 60+ days out 12/15/21 on the top end w a $190 strike..
-and a slightly out of the money call January 2022 at $175 strike.. Cha Ching!
UPS Long: Option PlayBroke ATH, good entry on close over 217.5.
Using A call debit spread, because profits are always limited by time.
Call Debit Spread
Levels on Chart
SL < 217.5
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
11/12 220C
SELL
11/12 235C
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
The long call is placed ATM for higher chance of profit,
The short call is placed 3 standard deviations away.
Manage Risk
Only invest what you are willing to lose
EverlongI'm always bullish on SPY. It's an ETF designed to always gain value.
Knowing this information I like to play strategies that involve exploiting dips. Currently on the 1HR chart we're seeing that it might break the downward pattern.
It is visually represented by the green ascending cloud and then a red cloud on the dip. The VIX is a little higher this morning but ideally I like it over 23 to Sell Credit Spreads.
If the market is neutral I might do a Calendar Spread. If it dips I buy the Sold Call back for a profit and then keep the LEAP until profit target is reached.
Godspeed Traders!
Nasdaq, 28 SEP - Elliott waves | Gann | Planetary Aspects $QQQAs expected a wave C is currently unfolding which gave us a nice profit.
Price approaches the 14766 Gann level so that we may look for potential (temporary) support. Wave C is still short but since we have a lower low, it fulfils the criteria for completion, and we can look to reduce exposure to be on the safe side. It is also possible to count 5 waves down (green count), however this count can extend if wave C continues to progress.
Should Nasdaq drop further, the next levels of support might be:
- 14524 Gann level & wave A-C equality
- Gann level 14284
- Gann level 14046 & 1.618 Fib extension of wave A.
Implied Volatility is high after today’s sharp drop. Selling option premium with wide strikes can be profitable should the decline slow down from here.
Correlations: DXY stalled today in a potential resistance zone. If USD cools off it will help the yield-sensitive tech sector to find temporary support zones.
_______________________
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In my analyses I combine Elliott waves, Gann theory, and planetary aspects to identify turning points in the markets & derive high-probability trading ideas. The strategy is to build leveraged exposure when markets are likely to expand, and to use options premium decay for consistent income when markets may contract and range.
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These abbreviations in the chart are ideas provided as educational information and do not constitute financial advice:
STO = sell to open
BTC = buy to close
BTO = buy to open
STC = sell to close
Disclaimer:
The views and ideas expressed in this analysis are that of the maker. They are provided as educational information and do not constitute financial or trading advice.
$NKE Looking oversoldI like the idea of the 145/140P credit spread here. $1.45 credit for the 11/19 opex
30-45 days or more until expiration would capture the most premium vs. theta decay (sweet spot per Tasty Trades).
You could go long naked : ) higher risk idea . I don't have conviction on how high and quickly Nike will rebound so I like the spread trade idea here
ATVI Bearish inclined Naked Calls 24 Sep Expiry (Sep Track 1)This is Track 1, Trade 2 of the September trades. This trade follow the following theme that I have crafted.
Industries that performed too well in 2020 (Market wise/product/service) might be unraveling because of their inability to keep up to the new or returning behavior shifts of people getting out of homes and back outdoors.
After spiking early in the year (Feb), Industries such as eGaming and eSports seem to range or trend downwards. They have generally not hit that previous high despite good earning reports.
I would be more comfortable selling into an ETF. But all the eGaming and eSports ETFs have terrible prices now.
Sold 110 Puts @ 0.50 Strike 91
% to Strike is 10% from entry
ATR percentile is high so this is good
Rising RSI , so this could be an issue
Max Gain: est $5500
Total BP Block: 95K
XRT ETF Bullish inclined Naked Puts 24 Sep Expiry (Sep Track 1)This is Track 1, Trade 1 of the September trades. This trade generally follows the larger market bullish move as it seems like Retail is taking the Delta virus and inflation news on its stride.
There will be price drops if those concerns surface again, but from what I've noticed, its all very short term. We also see retail hiring more aggressively and in the short term this means that business owners are somewhat optimistic and ready to get their business rolling full swing.
Sold 25 Puts @ 0.50 Strike 85
% to Strike is 11% from entry
ATR percentile is a middle, so this could be improved.
Rising RSI , tied to an uptrend of lower highs
Max Gain: est $1250
Total BP Block: 28K
JETS ETF Bullish inclined Naked Puts 10 Sep Expiry (Sep Track 2)This is the first month I'm breaking up my trades into 2 tracks to spread risk and provide myself with more room to navigate depending on the market situation.
I'm back bullish in JETS as it seems like the US is taking the virus in it's stride, even with Delta cases rising fast. Any virus precautions and restrictions while limiting are not new to business owners or consumers. Leisure and hospitality as an industry is opening up fast, Increasing pay and benefits to lure people back.
As more people get vaccinated and business returns, I think we should experience a jolt of green in this sector.
Sold 250 Puts @ 0.21 Strike 20
% to Strike is 13% from entry
ATR percentile is a high so I think we are at a pretty decent price
Rising RSI, tied to an uptrend of lower highs
Total BP Block: 50K
TMC the metals company Option CallsTMC the metals company had extreme volatility in the past week.
But that`s not all! The stock is one of the most traded in the options market.
TMC had 26900K Calls and only 1600 Puts in the last 3 trading days with the highest strike price at 20usd.
Now take into consideration the PUBLIC FLOAT, which is only 19.87Mil shares,
the FLOAT SHORTED of 9.37%, the Average Volume of 16,190,133 and you have yourself a runner!
$TSM watch for break of channelTSM on the weekly has recently formed a triple bottom, trading the channel. MACD looks ready to cross and a close above AVWAP, watch for a breakout here.
10/15 $125c or 130/125 debit spreads as an idea to play the breakout.
Rejection of top of channels invalidates trade.
$V Weekly Technicals and FundamentalsTechnicals :
Respecting Anchored VWAP at $230 and also 21MA & volume shelf as support. Trading the bottom of upward channel with historic strong bounces (black arrows). Also uptick in RSI and bullish trend in OBV indicator.
The above indicates a move up, however a break below we could see 218.12 or the 50MA as next line of support
Fundamentals:
Visa’s earnings of $1.49 per share, outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 12%. The bottom line improved 41% year over year. Next quarter's EPS est $1.54
The company’s net revenues advanced 27% year over year to $6.1 billion in the quarter under review. The top line beat the consensus mark by 5.1%.
I'm bullish with 10/15 $240C
Ultrasound Ethereum: Buy ETH Calendar Risk Reversal September 10Following the release of the EIP 1559 update, Ethereum issuance has become more deflationary than Bitcoin. About 138 000 ETH have already been burned, with a current market value of more than $440 million. We expect price pressure to continue. More than that, we expect an acceleration in price growth after the first decade of September as part of the seasonal liquidity increase.
Flash Idea:
In order to reduce the amount of risk, we choose the nearest execution date of September 10. We then sell 2 PUT options with a 2 900 strike price (the estimated premium to be earned is about $6.5 for a minimum transaction size of 0.1ETH) and with the financing obtained we buy PUT with a later execution date - 24 September, and with 3 800 strike price (estimated premium is $9 for each). The later date for the CALL option is chosen so that there is enough time for the price to move in the expected direction. Conversely, the earlier date for PUT options is chosen to reduce risk.
Risks: Since the idea is to sell two PUT options at 2 900, once Ethereum crosses 2 835 there is a chance of loss.