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the chalk or the longshot - pick your poisonUVXY traded upward 20% on 3 January 2020. that was the day the Iranian General, Solemani, was - pick your characterization basd on your politics - murdered assassinated etc. In February 2018 UVXY rose 110% in one session. In March 2020 The Covid spike was $12 to $130 in two weeks. Absent these outliers, UVXY has dropped from over $30,000 in 5 years with the most recent reverse split to $28 today. Along the way there are always these short term interuption of the downward bias based on fear. Fear fuels the spikes. whether it is SPY fear, volatility in all world markets or the spectre of Iranian oil market retaliation. The portfolio of UVXY is completely available cash and the purchase and sale of short dated volatility instruments that are rolled every month. Time decay erodes the portfolio until the spikes occur. Yesterday UVXY Net asset value dropped 10%. Those who thing that some volatility should be in a portfolio for the downside protection,r for the gain on instability can today buy the risk on cost to hedge for 48 days at $2.50 with unlimited upside gain. It is possible to reduce that cost with a put vertical that has a lose $2.15 and gain $15 hedge that expires in mid September with a complete loss. A larger portfolio that has a dividend aristocrat leaning will likely sell the common or buy a September $29/$15 put veertical for $704 to earn $698. Why the discrepancy? The pricing tells the story. A trend that is inexhortably downward yielding less, or a guess as to the upward spike in volatility. the chalk is downward. the longshot is the volatility spike for any narratice the investor chooes to believe.
CBOE:UVXYEducation
by Spotshooter1983
1
XRT ETF Bullish inclined Naked Puts 20 Aug ExpiryI entered this XRT trade with a high BP of 59K because I wanted to reduce my exposure on VXX. I'm getting the feeling that the market is reaching a stage where the bullish steam is running out. Especially with rising Inflation concerns. VXX to me is dangerous because it is exposed to Tech stocks which are currently sky-high and a drop in tech could be pretty ugly. What irritated me was that one day later the market drops due to inflation worries and the prices of my XRT contracts increases... I think I need to look at planning my selling of contracts together with the economic calendar as high volatility gets me a good price also. Good new is that the retail sales numbers unexpectedly rises by 0.6% in June and this basically shielded XRT to an extend. Sold 70 Puts @ 0.50 Strike 85 BP Block: 59K Max Gain: Est $3500 % Distance to Strike: 10.61%
AMEX:XRTLong
by Ronin_trader
[Intraday] BankNifty Short Bet Bearish Flag Sell 35300 CE Next Expiry if this line breaks ! Note - One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all. ======= I use shorthands for my trades. "Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.) "Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day. "Theta" , Trade Setup based on option Decay ! ======= I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share. ======= Like - Always follow a stop loss. In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High". In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings. =======
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by ShivamMendhare
VXX Sold Calls - 16 Jul & 23 Jul ExpiryI'm weary of my exposure to VXX and will try to reduce my exposure to it. For now, the price action seems to be stabilizing below the S/R line of $38. This month's entries seem tight due to the price offerings and when I entered. I'm not totally happy but it is manageable just not as defensive (Previous VXX trade I could get a good price at +60% from the strike) I might exit these trades a week early and take a smaller profit so that I can get better Aug prices. My Concerns on the VXX: 1) Inflation worries seem to be quietened but this will come back 2) VXX has an exposure to the Tech sector and that sector is pretty volatile especially with it's crazy bullish moves Sold 45 Calls @ 1.02 Strike 51 - Expiry 16 July Sold 15 Calls @ 0.82 Strike 46 - Expiry 23 July BP Block: 53K Max Gain: Est $5285.76 % Distance to Strike 51: 37% % Distance to Strike 46: 29%
CBOE:VXXShort
by Ronin_trader
XRT ETF Bullish inclined Naked Puts 23 July ExpiryI originally planned for XRT to take up 45% of my BP but some how my week earlier VXX trade's required BP suddenly increased and so for July XRT is back to around 30% BP So far it seems like the inflation worries have been quietened at least for the time being. I do feel it is a matter of time. This is why I need to reduce my exposure to VXX as it is very vulnerable to the tech sector which is very volatile. XRT is retail and seems somewhat conservative at this point, but I need to find one which is more inclined towards consumer staples. Sold 45 Puts @ 0.85 Strike 85 BP Block: 48K Max Gain: Est $3825 % Distance to Strike: 9%
AMEX:XRTLong
by Ronin_trader
$REI Calls 5 Dec 17th, possible Return +494%Ring Energy Provides Encouraging Update on Northwest Shelf Phase II Development Program -- Successful 2021 Drilling Campaign Focused on Highest Rate-of-Return Inventory and Capitalizing on Higher Oil Price Environment -- THE WOODLANDS, Texas, June 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ring Energy, Inc. (NYSE American: REI) (“Ring” or the “Company”) today provided an update on its previously announced program to drill and complete three wells (“the “Phase II Program”) on the Company’s top tier Northwest Shelf (“NWS”) acreage, targeting Ring’s highest rate-of-return projects in Yoakum County, Texas. The Bevo 664 C #2H well came online May 1, the Bevo 664 A #4H came online May 27, and the Bevo 664 A #3H came online May 30. All three wells started producing oil within three to four days of coming online, which is very encouraging in comparison to earlier wells drilled in the Section. During the last seven days, the three wells combined have achieved an average of approximately 300 barrels of oil per day per well. The Company’s working interest in each of the three wells is approximately 74%. Mr. Paul D. McKinney, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “The continued successful results from our development program are very encouraging and re-enforce our confidence in the strong inventory of drilling locations on our NWS acreage. In addition to the strong production results, all seven wells in our Phase I and Phase II programs were drilled and completed on schedule and within budget. With the recent positive outcome of our spring 2021 bank redetermination, the increased flexibility afforded by our pivot to a more opportunistic hedging strategy, and a sustained higher oil price environment, we are actively developing plans for our Phase III drilling program that could commence as early as the third quarter 2021. We look forward to keeping shareholders apprised of our efforts as we remain squarely focused on maximizing free cash flow generation to best position Ring for long-term success.”
AMEX:REILong
by UnknownUnicorn19246015