Dec Hedge: VXX Puts - 18 Dec expiryDecember's Hedge Trade
This trade hedges OLLI my secondary trade which is riskier as it was strategically structured to be the opposite of the border market movement. Hence if OLLI surges this should mitigate the loss.
It is 15% ($827.42 with comms) of the premium from Dec's Primary and Secondary trade. If things go well I should not need to cash this at all.
Bought 95 Puts @ 0.08, Strike 14
It requires an est -26% drop to reach the strike
Options-strategy
JETS ETF Bullish inclined naked Puts - 18 Dec expiryDecember's Primary Trade
As the Primary Trade is this aligned to the larger market direction and is deemed less risky. I'm bullish inclined for JETS as it is considered one of the COVID19 recovery sectors. The 9 Nov vaccine and US election news cause a significant gap upwards.
Vaccine news as we near 2021 could start increasing it's frequency, resulting in traders trying to capitalize on it by entering sectors previously hit hard by COVID19
Sold 140 Puts @ 0.17, Strike 17
BP block: 25k
Max gain - est $2380
"DKNG Long" Bullish will this be able to push to $60+ $DKNGNASDAQ:DKNG $DKNG intersting levels would love to see this break that 54.66 are so we can push into that 55 resistance then I feel the fun will begin and room to 60+ on this one but that breakout anf hold is a must to get this next leg higher
$CGRO entry PT 11.50-11.75 PT 24 and higher$CGRO Innoviz backed by SoftBank and Samsung...
And Bill Gates is in LGVW (spac), portable ultrasound you set up with a mobile device...
$THBR entry PT 10.25-10.40 PT 30 and higher$THBR (fm @Marcoux Faraday)
$THBR $thbrw enters into a definitive agreement with indie Semiconductor, "a leading pure-play provider of next-generation semiconductor and software solutions for the rapidly growing Autotech market
this is major semiconductor sector has been un-phased this year
$THBR + Indie semiconductor are merging with a value of $1.4 bill.
Lower left crayon DD 1/3
✓ Same management took $RPAY public Stock ATM $24+
✓ Current customers: Apple CarKey, MAGNA, BYD, Sirius XM, Tesla, BMW, etc.
✓ $2B+ in backlog
They work with $TSLA and $AAPL
$982M EV (2x 2025 revenue)
$1.44B Equity Value
$SPAC Deal - $NPA DA with AST SpaceMobile (pre-revenue until 2023), who is building the first space-based cellular broadband network.
$1.392B EV / $230M PIPE
(Info from Twitter $THBR thread)
Options Delta ExplainedI’m Markus Heitkoetter and I’ve been an active trader for over 20 years.
I often see people who start trading and expect their accounts to explode, based on promises and hype they see in ads and e-mails.
They start trading and realize it doesn’t work this way.
The purpose of these articles is to show you the trading strategies and tools that I personally use to trade my own account so that you can grow your own account systematically. Real money…real trades.
What is Delta?
What is Delta? You see options prices are influenced by what they call the Greeks.
A few of the Greeks are Delta, Gamma, and Theta. These are just three of the Greeks there are more.
When you’re trading options, it is important that you know about the Greeks and what they do.
For this article, we will focus on Delta, what it is, and why you should know exactly what Delta is.
Then we’ll go through a specific example explaining it, and then I’ll share with you a few things that you need to know about Delta.
So let’s get started.
The Greeks
OK, so as I mentioned, there are the option Greeks. Here are a few of them and what they tell you:
1) Delta is actually measuring the sensitivity. It’s a mouthful, but I’ll show you exactly what it means, for the option’s premium relative to the underlying asset in this article.
In a nutshell, though, it basically says, how much does the option price change if the stock moves $1 to the upside or the downside?
2) Gamma is the rate of change of the Delta.
3) Theta , and Theta basically measures time decay.
What Is Delta?
So what is Delta? Delta is a number between 0 and 1 that measures how much the price of an option changes if the stock moves by $1.
I know all of this sounds super theoretical, so let me actually give you a specific example.
Now, the example that I want to use here is Microsoft MSFT when it was trading at $211.20.
I want to cover different strike prices of options, because, again, options have strike prices and expirations.
We are looking at the current price of this option and we will look at the new price of this option if MSFT moves by $1 from $211.20 to $212.20.
When you bring up the option chain in your trading platform, in my case I use Tastyworks, the option we are using as an example is expiring on November 27th.
Here, you would see there are different call options on this site with different strike prices.
You would also see that they have all sorts of different Deltas. So let’s get started with the 205 that is right now trading at $7.30, and the Delta is 0.8.
Remember, the Delta is 0.8 because again, the Delta is between 0 and 1.
I’ll tell you about negative Delta in just a moment. The current price of the option is what we are seeing right here.
We look at the last traded price, the last traded price is $6.92.
So what does it mean? It means if MSFT goes up by $1 to $212.20, that the new price is $6.92 plus the Delta ($0.80).
So, you see this where it’s really important that you understand Delta. Some people think that options move even more than the stock, and this is not true at all.
So option prices always move less than the stock price. So the new price here of the option would then be $7.72.
So this is for a strike price of 205, and this is a strike price that is so-called ITM “In The Money” because its value, its strike is less than the current price.
Now let’s take a look at a strike that is at the money.
Now assuming MSFT is trading at $211 we will use the 210 strike price.
The 210 strike price has a Delta of 0.57, and this would be a so-called ATM “At The Money” with a Delta of 0.57.
Again, it is between 0 and 1. The current price of the 210 strike here is $3.05. We are using the last traded price here.
So if MSFT moves by $1 upwards, this option only moves 0.57. So this means that this option moves to $3.62.
Lets cover one more example.
So if we are using a strike of 215, that would be OTM “Out Of The Money,” and the Delta is 0.27. So the current price of this option is $1.06.
So if the stock moves up by a dollar, this option only moves up by $0.27.
Even though the stock moves up by $1, this only moves to $1.33.
Things You Need To Know
So let’s talk about the things you need to know.
Options that are ITM have a higher Delta then options OTM. So this means that ITM options move more.
Now, if you were to look back at your options chain, you see that the Delta for deep in the money options is 0.98.
So this basically means that if the stock goes up by $1, the price of this option goes up by $0.98, so the deeper in the money, the closer to $1 the price will move.
So options that are ITM are more expensive. This is where it’s important that you see that there’s a relationship between the Delta and the price.
The higher the Delta, the higher the price, because the higher the Delta, the more it is in the money.
As a rule of thumb, options ATM “At The Money” which are right where the strike price is right at the level where the current price is, are usually around 0.5.
Now, all this applies to call options. Now put options have a negative Delta which is between -1 and 0.
Well, the price of a put decreases if the option goes up. So the Delta for put options is all negative.
Now, put options that are ATM, are usually closer to one. And options that are OTM, don’t move a whole lot.
This is very important because some people just think,
“Oh, my gosh, I’m buying out of the money options because they are cheap. It is so much cheaper to pay $1.6 than $6.92.”
But they don’t really move a whole lot.
Now here’s a really cool tip that you might not have known.
The Delta is a rough estimate of the probability of the stock price closing above the strike.
So here, you see with a delta of 0.8, it means that there’s an 80% probability right now that the stock will be above that strike price.
If the Delta is 0.27, then that means there’s a 27% probability that the stock will be above that strike price.
So I think it’s kind of cool as an options trader to know this.
So the Delta is giving you a rough approximation of how likely is it that the stock will be above or below the current strike price on exploration.
Now here’s the tricky part, Delta is not fixed. So the Delta changes as the price changes and here’s why.
Right now, if, for example, MSFT (trading at $211) goes up to 215, the current strike price of 210 is deeper in the money therefore, then the Delta will be higher.
So now you know what Delta is, how it influences the option price, and you see that this is important when you are trading options.
SLG bullish inclined naked puts - 20 Nov expirySLG is a REIT, I identified this company through Finviz, so far it seems like a pretty decent tool to identify opportunities. Real estate similar to travel is another sector that has been beaten so badly. As such I don't think there are many speculators monitoring this company to move the price wildly
Since the drop in Mar, unlike the broader market. SLG has not recovered and has been ranging for the entire Q3. The recent earnings has been pretty positive but it did not result in a spike or a huge price movement. This gave me the confidence to sell PUT options.
My PUT sells also aligns to the broader bullish market movement and RSI is at a low of 45
Sold 30 PUTs @ 0.87, Strike 40
BP block: 14k
Implied Volatility is contast around 0.62
Max gain est: $2610
Hyatt bullish inclined naked Puts - 16 Oct ExpiryHyatt is part of the hotel sector that has been battered by COVID-19 and since Mar it has slowly been gaining ground by following the overall market's bullishness. As it is one of the hugely weakened sectors, I don't expect much speculation/volatility in this sector (Near term).
At this point (24 Sep), the market has been bearish across sectors. H's price movement has not fallen significantly vs the other more speculative sectors like tech. Since 17 Sep, price has dropped -13%.
I placed a naked put at Strike price of 45 as it is near a key S/R line.
Despite the past few negative days the larger trend is still bullish (Yellow line)
RSI is also at 40 which seems to be the average low
I also like it that it is the opposite of my JETS trade as it acts like a hedge. This seems like a viable hedge strategy as I can win both or lose one where the other will mitigate that loss (To an extend). Another hedge thought would be to potentially buy a cheap OTM Vix put or call. But let's see.
Sold 40 Calls @ 0.45, Strike 45
BP block: 20k
Max gain - est $1800
OLLI Bearish inclined naked calls - 18 Dec expiryDecember's Secondary Trade
This trade is slightly more risky and is the opposite of the general market movement (bullish).
I shortlisted Ollies out from the category of Discount Outlets from Finviz screener. Unlike the rest of the market that gapped up, this category fell after the 9 Nov US election news. This was one of the reasons why I feel the company's stock direction in the shorter term will be somewhat opposite of the market especially if there are vaccine related news.
OLLI also had a good price for a strike above the current Support and Resistance line and is a good 19% from the entry price. I'm slightly worried about the Earning release on the 2 Dec, but i think with potential vaccine news traders will be optimistic and move their money to COVID19 recovering sectors like Travel etc.
I will be hedging this trade with a bullish VXX trade, paid by the Dec premiums
Sold 18 CALLs @ 1.85, Strike 105
BP block: 19k
RSI: 51
Max gain est: $3330
JETS ETF Bullish inclined naked Puts - 22 Jan expiryAs the Primary Trade is this aligned to the larger market direction and is deemed less risky. I'm bullish inclined for JETS as it is considered one of the COVID19 recovery sectors.
More vaccine news and it's potential positive speculation could start increasing it's frequency, resulting in traders trying to capitalize on it by entering sectors previously hit hard by COVID19
Sold 120 Puts @ 0.30, Strike 19.5
BP block: 28k
Max gain - est $3600
"CLR Long" Bullish will this see $20+ by 3/19/21 $CLRthis one looks like it has a little more downside and wants to test that lower channnel NYSE:CLR $CLR but looks they are starting to creep into those 3/19 calls but for this to be a go for me I would like to see some type of base around that 16.84 area but only time will telll.
$TLGT PT 3-5.75 and higher by Jan 5th to Jan 21stTeligent, Inc., a specialty generic pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells generic topical, branded generic, and generic injectable pharmaceutical products in the United States and Canada. The company offers generic pharmaceutical products in topical, injectable, complex, and ophthalmic dosage forms. It is also involved in contract manufacturing and development business, including the development, manufacturing, filling, and package of topical semi-solid and liquid products for branded and generic pharmaceutical customers, as well as for over-the-counter and cosmetic markets. The company's topical semi-solid and liquid products are used in various applications that range from cosmetics and cosmeceuticals; and the prescription treatment of conditions, such as dermatitis, psoriasis, and eczema. It sells its products through national chain drug stores, drug wholesalers, distributors, and group purchasing organizations. The company was formerly known as IGI Laboratories, Inc. and changed its name to Teligent, Inc. in October 2015. Teligent, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is based in Buena, New Jersey.
NEE Options Plays With this chart, I have identified two possible options plays (both long OTM buys) based on the current trend and moving average positions, there a couple of indicators I found proving both an upside and downside theory so it's fair to say at this point the market must decide.
The pink boxes are possible entry zones Id be comfortable with given the support and resistance shown, given the premiums and greeks add up
feel free to expand upon this idea or leave me some feedback, thanks and good luck
Draftkings breaking out!!Noticed on Draftkings NASDAQ:DKNG chart that its breaking out from its lower trend!
The stock has been muted lately but with refreshed demand for betting and the deal closed with a Native American org,
Draftkings on the move!
Just got in some weekly $50 calls here, i expect a run to $55 which would be my new exit point!
Good luck to all that enter calls!
Notice the spike on the RSI & MACD??
Love to see it!!
Clear skies ahead for Palantir Ahoy fellow investors! Todays chart analysis is on Palantir Technologies NYSE:PLTR .
As you can see, Palantir cleared its 3 resistance price points of 25.50, 27.00 and 29.00 respectively and its on a strong upward trend heading for ALL time highs.
What i like about this rally is that:
1. There has been more and more positive news since the last run up to $33.50
2. Palantir just announced it will extend its partnership with the Greek government and its COVID-19 response effort (huge news as it allows exposure into PLTR business application)
3. It announced a new government contract that will pay $44,000,000 over 3 years (i believe those are the figures)
All of the recent good news plus what i am seeing in the weekly chart on the RSI (over 80 = super strong) and MACD (between 1 & 2 = strong) makes me like this rally and
i am confident that Palantir will reach ATHs (All time highs) and even surpass them.
As of now, the stock is sitting just over $30, after posting a 21% intraday rally.
Clear skies ahead for Palantir and i think it will touch $40 this week should the broad market conditions don't hinder its rally.
I own both stock at IPO and hold several call positions for end of the year expirations on 25 to 40 strikes.
Let's see how this unfolds! #GIDDYUP !!
"PLTR Long" Bullish will this see $35 $PLTRNYSE:PLTR $PLTR nice pull back on this on and it is starting to form a nice curl but the one thing that caught my eye on this one the most is the 21May21 35calls which had a lot of buying going into that one. 30.45 is the spot I will like to see break and hold for continuation into 33.50 then 35 will be in the cards.