Options-strategy
WMT Strategy I see WMT dropping tomorrow to point (D) but rising to point (E) after the stimulus deal, if there is one. I think there will be a deal and this will be a catalyst for WMT to moon shoot to an all time high. What is my strategy? I bought 30 puts today and plan on selling during tomorrows low, after I sell at the low point I am going to buy calls for $150 a month out. Stay tuned for trade activity and feel free to comment your thoughts.
A neutral strategy to squeeze AF - KLMHi all,
Today I entered a trade in AirFrance - KLM which has been struck quite significantly by the pandemic. My guess is that they will recover in the coming months but there could be some nasty surprises on the way to it. To summarize: I expect some movement in this ticker the next few months. Directional trading is not easy since you basically need to be on the right side of the trade.
My starting position is a 2.8 / 5 long strangle (10 contracts) with a position delta of 2 (-4 at the moment, which is ok, it wil fluctuate). I am long 375 gamma and short theta by 2. I will update regularly about the position but I already enabled some alerts to warn me when to hedge my delta's accordingly.
Key focus:
- Look for shorts when delta moves positive
- Look for longs when delta moves negative
Keep you posted.
Bull Put spread- happy to buy if exercised ; positive earnings Here is a global tech company / growth Gem in the shit times ( bargain?)....I 23% increased Revenue, and 197% profit > with more stellar growth pojected to the tune of +55%...With an all time high of $38 bucks, there's retest in the air over 12 months for a potential +55% mark up if get exercised on sold put at $24.50 by 15 OCT. If not stand to keep $500.00 premium paid after paying for long put below at $22.50.
Technically its a GAP UP on great report NEWS, with a slow slide this month back to 50 SMA. A pull back buy.
options spread:
sold 15 OCT PUT (A) strike 24.50 ...10 contracts ( 1000 shares) for -$1.07
buy Put 22.50......................................for +0.57 net -0.50 = $500 premium paid today.
BUll put (credit) spread OCT at the moneyTHis is a fairly aggressive set up with two weeks to run left on OCT options.
I see some recover from these over-sold levels, so I sold an at the money put at 2.71 strike with protection out of money below. It's aggressive because the possible loss if much greater than the win ( premium). But I figure this is compensated for by a lower probability of being on the wrong side.
SOld 100 contracts ( 10000 shares) European Put option strike 2.71 OCT 15th......0.10 c
bought American put 2.40 0.02 c net profit 0.80 ( $800)
GOOGLObservations
Although there big engulfing red candle today, the 50MA held.. barely. The body of the candle closed above the 50MA. Such strong bearish movement is likely going to continue tomorrow and it will likely test the 100MA.
There are some strong supports though. The candle closed above the trendline, in addition to the 50MA support.
The next support would be the 100MA and the "middle of the Bollinger band". They seem to be converging at the 1500 level.
The continued decline is likely consistent with the bearish momentum in the SPX & NDX
Proposed trade
I believe there's an opportunity for an iron condor here. I plan to set the short put leg between the 100 & 200 MA, while the short call leg can be set ~ the 1650 or 1700 level. This would be ~10 delta on each side.
NDX - Sell Credit Spread below 11,000The market can go either way next week, but likely down instead of up. It tested the resistance and failed. It's likely going to fall back and test the 50MA.
Although I wouldn't take a directional trade, I would sell a credit spread with DTW before Oct 30th, with the short let at 11,000 or below. By the time it expires, 11,000 would be below 50MA and 100 MA which are both very strong supports fort his index.
However, I urge you to close this trade prior to the elections lest something bad happens.
NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX
Technical 'buying ' on 5 waves correction completed, with 62 DBThis looks too good to be true - or is it? Technical perfect with :
1. 5 waves correction
2. 62 % retraced from low to high this year
3. a double bottom with May low
So I got aggressive and sold a bull put spread for premium two weeks expires.
Sold 45 ( 4500 shares) contracts of American PUT strike 15.50 ......for 0.24
bought 14.50...........-0.07 for profit premium paid 0.17 ($765)
JETS ETF bearish inclined naked calls - 13 Nov expiryOnce again I'm re-entering a JETS options trade given the low volatility . The industry is still weak and I don't think we will see much upwards movement in the next month especially with the US elections heating up and the focus still on CN, Tech and Healthcare.
For this trade, I sold calls close to a key price resistance point. I did not cover this options trade as I realised my covered options did not protect when volatility increased and the strike got closer.
For now I am leveraging S/R lines to determine strike price selection. I wonder if a potential hedge is a OTM VXX options position at a cheap low price point (When VXX is down, it means the market is up)
Sold 80 Calls @ 0.30, Strike 21
BP block: 15k
Max gain - est $2400
Options Idea: Buy The Jan. 21, 2022 INTC 40.0 Call @ $13.90Intel just gapped down after its last earnings release as margins tightened from almost 60% last year to 53.3%. Trouble lies ahead as well since Intel’s 7-nanometer manufacturing is delayed which will give AMD a 6 month head start to eat away at Intel’s market share. Intel has responded by initiating a huge $10 billion stock repurchase program. This is in addition to the Oct 2019 repurchase program already in place, bring total repurchases to around $20 billion.
Even though Intel is in trouble, we think there’s an opportunity for a longer-term play. Observe the historic Price/Sales ratio for Intel in the weekly view. We are buying today at 2.75. We’ve marked entries over the last few years at the 2.75 PS level. Every entry would have been successful over a 1 year holding period. The 50 week average on the PS ratio for Intel is 3.32.
Nevertheless, we like to reduce risk with options, so we are not going long in Intel. We are buying a deep in the money LEAP call on Intel today at $13.90, which gives us unlimited profit potential above $53.90 and limits our losses below $40.
Since this is such a long term LEAP call, we have 16 months (or 72 weeks) to sell monthly or weekly calls against this position. So while our current breakeven point is $53.90, we intend to lower our cost basis through the sale of out of the money shorter term calls.
This is strategy is called the poor man’s covered call. The important point is that with a $53.90 breakeven, the lowest priced call we can sell is $54. If we sell a lower priced call and INTC were to rise too quickly, the trade could lose money.
Selling next month or next week 15 delta out of the money calls should produce more than enough income to compensate us for the loss of dividends on this position and reduce our breakeven to $51, which is where Intel was trading today when we opened our long position.
Our objectives for short call income generation against this position are as follows:
Initial Objective: $2.90 (Extrinsic Option Premium), reduces breakeven point to $51
Secondary Objective: $4.55 (5 Quarters Dividends on 100 shares)
Stretch Objective: $13.90 (100% of capital recovered)
If we complete our initial objective we’ll have recovered our extrinsic option premium, giving us the benefit of going long in INTC at no additional cost. If we complete the secondary objective we’ll have not only recovered the option premium, but also generated 5 quarters of INTC’s $0.33 dividend, making our position equal to a long position in INTC, but at 20% of the capital outlay. And our final stretch objective is to recover $13.90 over the life of this call, recovering our capital early.
Standard Exit : We exit the trade for a profit when the PS ratio on INTC approaches 4.
Early Exit : We exit the trade for a profit as soon as INTC has recovered the 50-week moving average.
20-INTC-03
Opening Date: Sep 1, 2020
Expiration Date: January 21, 2022
DTE: 507
IV: 35.81%
IV Percentile: 69%
Odds of Winning: 32.60% (before selling short calls)
Odds of Losing: 67.40% (before selling short calls)
Win: > 53.90 @ Expiration (before selling short calls)
Loss: < 53.90 @ Expiration (before selling short calls)
Reg-T Margin: $0 (long position, uses $1390 cash)
Chart Legend
Green Area: 100% Win Zone. If we finish above or in the green area, we’ve made a profit on our call. This is a long call, so our potential gain is unlimited.
Red Area: If we finish in this area we have a loss. The size of the red area is the size of our maximum loss. Since we’ve bought a call instead of gone long, we have no additional losses below $40.
1 standard deviation, 2 standard deviation, 3 standard deviation projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
Follow us here on TradingView to get updates as we adjust this trade with the short calls we will be selling against this position.
Follow the momentum off the 20dma & Option Strategy in CommentsCurrently long using an option spread in /ES Futures.
Directionally biased trade - LONG
Sep 30th Exp, 2d exp
+3325 /ES Call
-3495 /ES Call
Probability of profit 39%
Max Win $6,450
Max Loss $2,037
Theta -3.2 (spread protects us from time decay)
Delta 0.67 - Long trade
ZM hits roofIn this chart we see a short term, broadening pattern called the megaphone. I have found that this pattern is usually accurate in predicting breakouts/ price movements. As shown in this hourly chart, ZM has been run along the top trend line , briefly crossed above, and is now headed back to support.
If I were looking for a short term trade I would wait to see if the price is going to break the black line (today’s low and also a price level that saw some price support recently), at the 457 area. If it breaks below, I would take out a short term call with my first target being the second-from-the-bottom black line, the 449 area, and the next is in the 442 area. If i believed I had a high tolerance for unrealized losses, I would set a stop loss far below my buying price (up to 40 percent of buying price for options.) on the other hand, if I had a very small tolerance or unrealized losses, I would set my stop loss at about 5 percent below my buying price, enough to maybe see a profit but not enough to where a short term sell off would force me to sell prematurely.
Feel free to leave comments and questions.