Options-strategy
Boeing $200 in August, $300 by October IdeaJust some analysis that i've found showing some strong support for BA. Hopefully some more air travel and good news could help push this along with the technicals. Please make any critiques as I'm still learning.
August 13th - $195 strike call @ $0.43 ($43)
October 16th - $300 strike call @ $1.77 ($177)
JETS ETF Call Options With Bears ProtectionJETS invests in both U.S. and non-U.S. companies involved with the airline industry, including passenger airlines, aircraft manufacturers, airports and terminal services companies.
Due to COVID-19 it's one of the weakest sectors and from my observations it seems to fall first and raise last vs the S&P 500. As countries are slowly opening and getting a grip on the virus or at least are forced to push forward to avoid further economic impact, JETS ETF could potentially move up. I am around 70% inclined to this, especially since price seems to have breakthrough a range of 15.79 - 11.28
To protect myself from bearish moves. I loaded up on call contracts at a higher strike. This means that no matter how low price goes I will always get +$875. However my profits are capped at strike 20.99 with my risk being price moving upwards beyond strike 21.45. The plan of course would be to close the trade before.
Sell Calls 31 July - Strike 21, 0.3, Qty 45
Buy Calls 31 July - Strike 18, 0.95, Qty 5
ADT OPTIONS | How To Play The Gap UpSimple Technical Analysis On ADT, Plus This Weeks Options Plays.
With both of these plays, it will be up to you to secure profit. Do not trade this though, you will lose money :)
Long ($16 Breakout):
Premiums will be extremely expensive on the call side, important that we wait for confirmation or else we will get clapped quick from a rip down
The Call:
$12.5 Call 8/21 @ $330 avg
Short ($13.26 Level):
Premiums on the put side are extremely cheap for mainly one reason, the gap up. If played correctly, times like this can provide an amazing day trade opportunity.
The Short:
$7.5 Put 9/18 @ $12
Strictly educational purposes only
DotcomJack
Long on AYX, break out above $145 all the way up to $200 sold put credit spread at $165/$155, purchased the call butterfly from $165/$180/$200
What Is Options Assignment Risk?What is the options assignment risk?
Trading options is a very lucrative way to make money in the stock market. Using the same methods that I teach in my trading PowerX Trading Strategy, I was able to turn a 25k account into a 45k account in 2 months!
25K to 45K in 2 months? This sounds too good to be true… and I would like to tell you that it is NOT too good to be true, but there are some inherent risks associated with options trading.
ONE of the biggest risks, and possibly the MOST common risk associated with trading options are options assignment risks.
As you may know by now, options contracts expire. When you purchase an options contract you have the right to exercise the contract, and buy or sell the underlying asset for the agreed-upon price. If you allow the contract to expire in the money (ITM) you run the risk of being assigned the 100 shares of the underlying stock.
This is known as an options assignment risk.
Specific Examples of Options With Different Expiration Dates
In the example we’re going to discuss today, we’re going to look at how options expiration or the length of time to expiration can affect your options assignment risk.
To illustrate the relationship between options assignment risk and options expiration, we’re going to look at trading a 315 call options contract on Apple (AAPL) with 7 days left until expiration. The current strike price of AAPL is 318.
This options contract is currently trading for $6 , but only has $3 of intrinsic value. If you were to exercise the option, you would be able to purchase the AAPL stock for $315, and you would capture $3 of profit. If you sell the option, you’ll earn twice that, because the options contract is selling for $6.
The difference in the cost of the intrinsic value ($3) of the option and actual value ($6) of the option has to do with time decay. As the option contract gets closer to its expiration date, time decay erodes the value of the options contract.
In our next example, we’ll look at trading the same options contract with a $315 strike price, but with 0 days to expiration.
As you can see in this image, the same contract with zero days until expiration has only $3 of value. Time decay, otherwise known as theta, has slowly eaten away the value of the contract so that now there is only the intrinsic value of the option left.
On a side note: Selling Theta is a very powerful way to make money while trading. I have taught thousands of traders to use Theta, or the time decay of options, to produce income while trading options.
Options Expiration
As an options contract nears expiration, the risk of options assignment increases exponentially. When an options contract has been purchased, it can usually be sold before expiration to prevent an assignment.
However, options contracts that have been sold pose the opposite risk. If you have sold a put contract for example, and the options contract is in the money at expiration, you must either buy back the contract BEFORE expiration, or risk options assignment.
In this next example, we will look at selling a put contract on Herts (HTZ) .
The current price strike price of HTZ is $2.87.
If you were to SELL a $3 put option on HTZ , the option would have the intrinsic value of .13 cents! Meaning if you chose to exercise the option, you would only make .13 cents per share.
If we look at this option with 1 week out until expiration we can see that it has more value because time decay has not eroded the value.
To Exercise or to Sell, That Is The Question
As you can see, there’s WAY more profit when selling a contract vs exercising a contract when there is time to expiration.
In summary, it’s very unlikely that someone will exercise an options contract when there is time remaining before expiration. There is usually more profitability when there is less time decay or Theta decay in the contract.
When should you worry about options assignment risk?
Some traders are under the impression that IF the stock price moves below or above your strike price (depending on whether you sold a put or call) you risk assignment immediately. This is NOT true. You risk assignment the closer your contract gets to expiration.
Earnings Play for TGTI grabbed in the money options before the breakout. weekly close above 123 confirms move. Target $132. In the money options help against theta decay but cost more up front. This is an earnings play. options that expire August 21 or 28 have lowest theta. Risk/Reward is 3.00 stop loss is low 119's. So long as weekly close is above 123, the 119 stop loss is reasonable. if this falls back into the wedge you can add another call around 116 and set a different stop loss, but the safer play is playing the breakout with confirmation. there were 2 hourly candles that close above the resistance along with strong bull volume on the last 2 hour candle.
Bajaj Finserv from 17 July 2020The stock is showing bullish sign in 4h Timeframe ... positional long can be taken.
There is consolidation zone present right above the 6403 level ..which might result in some high wick candles
MFI is showing sign of increasing .. though RSI and MACD in -ve zone --> consolidation zone very problematical
Targets --> 6664 -> 6905 (tough)
Trade setup :
Safe Setup : ( Sell 5700 PE + Sell 5600 PE ) + ( BUY 4800 PE * 2 ) to decrease margin total profit : 10K margin 160K
Nerves of Steel Setup :
1. Sell 5700 PE + Sell 5600 PE
2. Buy 6300 CE
use appropriate hedging to decrease margin
:: assumption taking 4800 PE *2 and 7200 CE total profit : 90K margin: 180K very risky : 48% success probability
Axis Bank from 17 July 2020The stock is showing increase in MFI also seems to be coming out of Consolidation Zone.
price has shown a good retracement ( consolidation ) in 420-430 zone.
Setup:
1. Intraday setup :
buy at 440 -> tgt 450
2.Positional setup:
buy at 440 -> 450 -> 462 -> 470 -> 476
3. Option strategy:
Sell ( 390 PE + 400 PE + 410 PE ) + BUY 370 PE * 3
Bull Put spread on spike in volatility - The Anty strategy
I think with the slightly over-cooked sell-off into an area with high volume trading activity should be price
stabilize. This is a strong company with good projected income potential over the next few years. If I was forced to buy it via exercised then I could live with that.
In the meantime - I can pick up a credit at close to 'at-the money' and see what happens....it just has to expire in 3 weeks above 18.00 before I'd need to consider 'rolling down & out ' etc
The volatility spiked up about 7 % which means the options premiums will be slightly fatter,
and there is only 15 trading days left before expires for time-decay to work it away...
This is "the Anty" strategy - adopted a bit longer for options
bear call spread ( credit)
I think the financial sector has topped out for now and with a potential leg C in an ABC correction,
I could have 3 weeks of this price remaining under the sold portion @ 124 strike ( european)
10 ( 1000 shares) bear credit spread strikes -124 / +126 yields a tidy $780 before costs for 3 weeks time until 15 July.....
$GOOGL Options play of the month | New ATH!Technical look on $GOOGL with a huge potential options play through earnings
Throughout Covid, Netflix has performed rather well since the first wave down, pushing 46% from lows.
We are looking for Google to either retest previous ATH or straight rip, will probably play it safe and wait for the retest. If the setup doesn't look good enough for entry, we will simply sit on our hands and wait for the right time.
The Play:
GOOGL $1,600 Call 7/17
Estimated Time: 7-13 Days
- Bullish - Breakout on the upside to make even more ATHs, looking to retest the previous channel resistance.
This play will payout stupid but takes quite a bit of capital, congrats if you made a bag on this :)
This is not financial advice nor am I a financial advisor
DotcomJack
(View other option plays below)
$AAPL Weekly Option Play | Buy The BreakoutTechnical Analysis of Apple plus this weeks option play...
After we breakout then retest $385, we will look to get in.
The Play:
AAPL $395 Call 7/17 @ $238 per contract
We hit this 3 times in the last few months, this is Easy Loot
DotcomJack
Do not trade this
BSL Bull Put spread - Aug expires with strikes 10.76/ 10.51
technical reasons - there seems to be a recover in price by rallying past previous low, and after completing corrective legs
fundamental - Goldman Sachs have a BUY rating with target of $14.95 over 12 months ( +37%)
good probability of this credit spread- with 5 weeks until expiry there is 'time-decay' on side
- the implied volatility is high for the past 30 days in upper range 42-47%
- European style option cannot be exercised before expiry date
- plenty of time to manage on table risk eg. 27/02 payoff diagram shows only -$250 if price down to 10.81, with reward of $1000 this is a good Risk reward if exit in two weeks
- Price merely has to stay above the upper sold strike of 10.76 to win
- if price rallies a lot can exit the trade for a substantial profit early
- if price drops a lot, at a few weeks before expiry can roll down and out to recover loss next month
- if decide to own the stock, its better to wait until after dividend payment in September as no tax imputations allowable and best not to have an options trade on during this time.....
set up BUY if 3.00 good price rating 5.50 GS plus Sept dividend
OSH - seems to be well placed for accumulation; I'm just looking for a better entry price...the energy sector chart indicates some scope for further C leg downside correction. So waiting for OSH to test recent low. I figure the following entry technique:
1. in about 1-2 weeks if corrects lower to about 3.00 sell a bull credit/put spread Aug ( I'm looking at 3000 shares worth for about $1100 credit).
2. collect credit premium until Aug 20th expiry- this should get another +10c premium for a discount on buying stock
3. buy actual stock after expires then immediately sell a call above at target price of +50c ; if expires worthless, keep rolling out months until call exercised.
4. possible to collect Sept interim dividend if offered of about 7 c.
Goldman Sachs have a 12 month rating ( from March) of 5.50 target ( information from Commsec).
NFLX Pre-Move Analysis |Technical look on $NFLX NASDAQ:NFLX with potential options play
Netflix makes $100 million commitment to support Black communities in the U.S.
As we come toward the end of this massive 10 month wedge, we must be patient. Throughout Covid, Netflix has performed rather well since the first wave, achieving 20% above previous 2020 highs.
Will Netflix moon into earnings? Will earnings disappoint long investors?
Comment your thoughts below!
The Plays:
Estimated Time: 7-11 weeks
- Bullish - Breakout on the upside or other bullish activity: NFLX $540 Call expiring late september, this break will result in a massive rip in which we will aim to play the continuation. Take profits!
- Bearish - Break toward downside, lose of channel: NFLX $460 Put Expiring late September or October. Chart is giving off more bearish signals than bullish but that's not pricing in Covid.
We will cover this play when the time is right, be sure to keep your eye on it.
This is not financial advice nor am I a financial advisor
DotcomJack
Day trading and Scalping Example NIFTY July 8I use multi time frame analysis very heavily. I always establish context for trading before I start the day. For context and levels, please check the following posts prior to July 8 *** Links Below
I am always fascinated by day trading - not because of the lure of quick money. But I think it is extremely hard for me. At least it is hard for my personality. It is always said there are two kind of traders
1. Traders who can think very fast
2. Traders who can think very deep
I always see myself comfortable in category two - deep thinker. But to put myself out of my own opinion's prison - I day trade.
Though day trading is hard, it teaches many things to me as a trader.
1. Emotional Control and Money Management - I don't have time to adjust , reflect back and somehow prove to myself that I am on the right side. I better quickly exit of my positions with great emotional control.
2. Relentless Planning - Since I don't have lot of time, I have to plan insanely - thinking of all possibilities and my actions.
3. NO to laziness - I cant afford to relax during the day session. I need to have extreme clarity of thought throughout the trading session.
Now, one may think that all these learning can be from any time frame trading. That's true. But when you have a ticking clock next to you and market presenting you 1 of n possibilities every single candle, that changes you for good. It makes you fast. Then you can adjust to larger trading styles easily.
Below is my example live thought log for the day. I escaped the day with approx Rs 34 / lot profit. Not a bad hunt after crazy price movement!
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NIFTY chart is extremely positive. Market looks prime for 11000, but global clues soft. Typically, such setups if bullish do not give chance to enter, starts with gap up. If there is no gap up it may be contra indication for sideways movement for the day. Since it is Wednesday , 1 day prior to weekly expiry, it is better to sell options and scalp premium.
Risk : large volatile movement. Stop Loss, opening ranges of 1 st hr. Close positions starting from 1:30 PM.
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1. Expectation was rally. But flat opening. Global markets are soft. Hence I sold 9300 CALL. Idea is to cash in Theta loss for the day in case of sideways movement. It is a risky trade.
2. Candle at 9.30 starts confirming this movement. Let this movement complete.
3. Any close below Previous day High, position can be added to.
4. As yesterdays high shows support around 10800, 10700 PUT is sold as well. Again Idea is to get benefitted by sideways movement and theta decay.
5. Overall position entry is now 33+30.30 = 63.30 Rs.
6. Since breakout failed, now NIFTY likely to stay in the range. So 10800 CALL sold 68.05 Rs.
7. So far trade is going ok. definitely signs of consolidation. BANK NIFTY broken out, NIFTY lagging.
8. Position 10700/10900 Strangle : 66 Rs (3Rs loss)
Position 10800 Call : 74 Rs (6 Rs loss)
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9 Rs Loss
9. Position 10700/10900 Strangle : 65 Rs (2Rs loss)
Position 10800 Call : 56 Rs (12 Rs Profit)
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10 Rs Profit
Going as expected. On breakout of the opening range Another short added 10800 CALL 56
10. Opening range breakout failed. 10750 PUT sold, Now look for opportunity to reduce position on 10800 CALL as breakout failed.
11. Usually NIFTY may jump around after 1.30. VIX did not decrease so far. So NIFTY players sense uncertainity at these levels.
Closed 10800 1/2 position.
Position 10700/10900 Strangle : 56 Rs (10Rs Profit)
Position 10800 Call *: 62 (6 Rs Loss)
Position 10750 Put : 46 (3 Rs Profit)
* Position 10800 CALL : (68-61) (7 Rs Profit)
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7 Rs Profit / 7 Rs Booked Profit = 14 Rs
12. The price range is getting tighter. NIFTY advance decline is 25 to 24 Neutral.
13. As Expected move started. How strong the move to be seen. 10800 PUT sold as initial direction of the move crossing the range. VIX started cooling off
14. Break above range is not showing strong follow through so expansion attempt is not rapid. That is a good sign for my trades.
Position 10700/10900 Strangle : 50 Rs (13Rs Profit)
Position 10800 Call : 74 (18 Rs Loss)
Position 10750 Put : 31 (18 Rs Profit)
Position 10800 Put : 50 (4 Rs Profit)
* Position 10800 CALL : (68-61) (7 Rs Profit)
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17 Rs Profit / 7 Rs Booked Profit = 24 Rs
15. NIFTY is showing many indecisive moves. It is above previous day high. Essentially, the morning down move can be negated and fresh up move possible tomorrow.
It is 2.20 PM so 1 hr to go in trading. Priority will be to close short positions first. Then Long ones.
Closed 10800 Put : It was latest and more prone to loss.
* Position 10800 Put : 49 (5 Rs Profit)
16. NIFTY dipped below Previous day Low. Now NIFTY can again go to 10800
17. Actually large moevement at 2.30 PM. Closed the positions. Final tally is
Position 10700/10900 Strangle : (63 - 45)(18 Rs Profit)
Position 10800 CALL : (68-61) ( 7 Rs Profit)
Position 10800 CALL : (56-55) ( 1 Rs Profit)
Position 10750 PUT : (49-46) ( 3 Rs Profit)
Position 10800 PUT : (54-49) ( 5 Rs Profit)
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34 Rs Profit
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Retrospection :
-ve's
1. Position of 10800 PUT sell was not a good position to take, it was more like a balancing previous position.
Better option would be to just square off 10800 CALL position for loss.
2. Entry for 2nd position on 10800 CALL could have been better. Also it was not correct with original sideways assumption.
+ve's
1. Traded as per the plan.
2. I was able to close everything fast enough before the volatile move.
Reference
Monthly Analysis
Weekly Analysis
July 7 Log
Amara Raja Batteries from 4 July 2020April-May has shown considerable Upside movement
June - July month is showing consolidation period ...
prices has touched the red zone thrice ==> also showing breakout ( very high volume )
Daily chart is showing evening doji pattern ....
Future price movement can be expected in two ways ..
1. legitimate breakout ... new consolidation zone around 740
... at-max this month 20-25% growth can be their ... 1 July opening 650 --> max 780 - 812 very tough
2. cup and handle formation then after good investor build up takeoff to 740 zone
---> if prices come down ... then expecting the end of handle to be around 660-666 then shoot to 740 zone
trade strategy ...
1 safe one ---> sell 640 PE --> sell at 665 zone
2. somewhat risky --- > sell 640 PE ( at price level of 665) + sell 800 CE right now --> heart of steel require
Neutral to bullish - bull put spread ( net credit)
Options trade - Bull Put Spread
technical - seems like a two legged correction in a weak bullish trend of equal amounts has indicated a pause in price ;
The at the money put at 16.50 is sold for credit for Aug 20th expirey;
The out of money put at 15.50 is bought for debit
net credit $1000
scenarios -
1. If > 16.50 at expires keep money
2. if between 15.50 & 16.50 try to get out around breakeven...
3. If really goes down hard < 15.50 strike or breakeven point, may have to roll down for small loss...
Hindustan Unilever from 4 July 2020The stock was moving in sideways channel --> it broke with very much difficulty
It is now showing signs of spring entry ...
Multiple red candle touched the breakout level and now a jump in price is seen ... possibly showed retest of resitance zone ...
Main trade setup can be expected ...
1. Buying ITM CE --> why ITM because if price decrease we don't want to lose to time decay .
2. Selling OTM PE --> this OTM PE can be sell .. price on safe side can be should be below Support Zone (green)