Tiffany Puts - Upcoming reflection of the global situationI bought puts on Tiffany as I felt like the stock was buoyed by the news of the LVMH acquisition bid last year. It did not seem to be hugely affected by the Covid virus and the potential upcoming economic slowdown implications.
With April's non-farm job numbers going to reflect rising unemployment numbers. Corporate and consumer debt also catching up. This perfect storm will be wrapped by the disappearance of China tourist spends on Luxury goods.
I believe Tiffany's stock price will be pushed to better reflect the current and future situation and have bought 130 ITM puts at 11.62 that will expire on 15 May 2020. Implied Volume of +32% (Seems like a good price)
Options-strategy
Selling VXX call - Expiring 27 Jun 2020 Decided to sell covered VXX Calls as i'm pretty unsure about making Industry specific trades as it's very detached from the economy. But what I've learnt so far is that it is not a fact that the market needs to correlate with the economy.
Trading volatility seems like a good idea, as an exercise I have tried to justify two market scenarios.
Market Rises/Range Scenario
- Cities start slowly reopen
- Earnings has companies forecasting the worst of 2020. However investors seem optimistic/lukewarm
- CN could report positive economic news that will encourage positive vibes
- Europe could show positive recovery
- US weekly unemployment numbers are slowing down
- US second stimulus package (May)
- Positive vaccination news
- Lower income consumers are the most impacted. However, that won’t dent investors that deem key stocks as “cheap”
Market Crash
- Europe sinks into a clear recession
- Breakdown of second stimulus package
- CN hits a repeat lockdown or resurgence in virus
- FED keeps pushes dire warnings of economy and this becomes an early warning
- Credit card and mortgage defaults spiral (After Aug)
Trade Risk: $4710
Trade Reward: $1290 (27%)
Win Probability: 73.78%
Trade Log NIFTY May 20My trades Today
1. I sold 8900 PUT today as market opened with positive bias. When It faced rejection at 9000, I squared off the position. I was profited because IV dropped.
2. Then there was a consolidation in tight range. Since there was no follow through on short side after rejection, I was confident of selling credit spread. I'll let it expire/ close tomorrow.
3. Then on breakout of the range, I bought CALL and squared it off near EOD.
In my Trade log post for May 19, I had said
1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish . On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone . This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached.
2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600.
3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once.
In this, point 2 is certainly confirmed. For point 3 I think there are chances that 8800 may be bottom for near term and pullback rally starts from here.
Observations about price action today
1.NIFTY gained in the first few hours. It maintained the gains and consolidated in tight range. And then gained even more in second session. Closed 2.11% up.
2.BANK NIFTY supported 2.11%
3.VIX down 9%+
4.Advance Decline ratio 42 to 8.
5. NIFTY formed higher low and higher high. BANK NIFTY did not form new low.
For next 2 days,
1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow.
2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD.
3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side.
4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level, means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally.
guns and butter, Do you remember ECON? $RGR has been doing pretty good the past few months just went over a monthly resistance. Looking to test $65 then $70.
ER is $70 I truthfully think this is an actionable trade.
redline is stoploss for bulls, and point of entry for bears IMO
MAKE THAT MONEY
$SPY $amd $NVDA $PENN $MVIS $QQQ $tqqq $AAPL $SHOP $TSLA $ROkU
MACD with RSI 5 & 14 Double ConfirmationI usually run three RSI's that have generated around 87% success rates. The three HAVE TO correlate together either in overbought or oversold territory. The variations have been changed to 75 and 25 to offer even more confirmation on the stock or crypto relative strength. Any questions, feel free to reach out! Investingwithchris.com
Bullish on daily, as long as $62.75 holds. Fib levels shownBullish on daily TF, as long as $62.75 holds. Fib levels shown below. Weekly - Possible cup forming and bull flag, but there is bearish RSI devergence. Options - On Friday, April 17, 2020 , 3,850 contracts were bought of the $72.50 call expiring on Friday, May 15, 2020, which are still in OI. 8.5% Move expected. May 8 P/C ratio .42, May 15 P/C ratio .25. Q1 Earnings – They have beat Q1 EPS and Revenue expectations since 2014. Good Luck this week!
TRADE PLAN for SPY over NEAR TERMUtilizing #SPY vertical call options on this setup over near term: SPY 310 C expiration 5/29/20
#SPXL is also a buy and hold until SPY reaches the 78.6 retracement zone near 313. Good luck and God bless!
next #UVXY target near 30 over upcoming 2-3 weeks, if desiring to short the #VIX
SPY TRADE PLAN for NEAR TERMUtilizing options on this trade: SPY 310 C expiration on 5/29/20.
the SPXL etf is also a buy and hold until we reach the 78.6% fib retracement level near 313.
#SPX #SPY #SPXL
UKOIL: Downtrend Bid + Retracement LongFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously, as always this is on opinion basis. That being said, let me get into a few key points I want to make. Oil is about to go back down on the demand curve and have increased resistance, especially in indexes and/or options trading. This is mostly due to price corrections and a result of the sentiment going on from people reacting to the Covid19 pandemic. The demand curve going down = oil going down = price corrections as a result of impacted news. It is that simple, and this is why I predict a small imminent bearish period for UKOIL, but a huge upswing investment opportunity.
WOW! CHECK OUT MY CUSTOM CODED ALERTS!CHECK OUT MY ALERT SYSTEM! THESE ALERTS ARE PRETTY SPOT ON. READ MY NOTES ON THE SCREEN.
I'VE BEEN TRADING OFF AND ON FOR ABOUT 12 YEARS. IT HAS ONLY BEEN IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS AFTER LOSING MY JOB THAT I DECIDED TO GO ALL IN ON STOCKS.
I'VE DEVELOPED THIS ALERT SYSTEM IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO AND IT HAS HELPED ME TREMENDOUSLY.
I'VE BEEN TRADING OPTIONS MOSTLY SINCE IT HAS BECOME MY FULL-TIME JOB AND THESE ALERTS HAVE BEEN CRUCIAL TO MY SUCCESS SINCE MID-FEBRUARY
Expiry Strategy: Sell 21200 Call @ 74 & Buy 21800 Call @ 20Trend continued to be bearish as 20 day EMA hovers below 50 day EMA. Recently price not able to hold its head above 20 day EMA and headed below 20 day EMA. Expecting bank nifty would expire below the recent high.
Option traders can sell 21200 call @74 and buy 21800 capp @ 20. Lot size. 20. Max profit of Rs.1080/-(in 3 holding period) if expires below 21200 level.
Expiry Strategy: Sell 3700 Call @15. Lot size 200Trend continued to be negative as 20 day EMA stays below 50 day EMA. Recently found a reversal below 38% retracement level. Expect it would expire below 3700 level in Apr series. Sell 3700 Call.
Trade Log NIFTY April 23Expiry Day today. NSE:NIFTY trended nicely for the day. But I could not make most of it.
1. I had a trade from yesterday, which I had to manage to minimise the loss.
2. I was not very sure about NIFTY having very strong move post 9265.
Trade Log NIFTY April 22Today NIFTY's move retraced 200 points after initial flat opening.
After move down tomorrow, I was expecting range bound action. NIFTY kept on moving up.
1. Overall Advance Decline ratio is near 1 to 1.
2. NIFTY gains largely due to Reliance and Zee Entertainment.
Tomorrow is expiry day. It is interesting to see how NIFTY reacts to level of 9250.
SDC - Smile Direct Club - LONG Open Above trend line - Look NowSmile Direct Club looks really good breaking this line lets see if it holds
MFA Launch Pad Coming UpSo I have an option on this for 4/17 strike price $1.30 aka passed it. Regardless this stock clearly is a result of the virus not of the company. I think you will continue to see big results from this stock over the next weeks/month if not longer.
Of course the virus news highly dictates real estate.
NYSE:MFA
NYSE:DOW
TVC:SPX
BTCMOVE0413: Bought Volatility (options trading)Expecting some volatility closer to the close of the day. Bought volatility via BTCMOVE0413 contract; i.e expiring today.
Will cut it if quickly volatility continue to dry down.
Hit the "LIKE" button or sign up with my ref links below to support, thank you.
Information is just for educational purposes, never financial advice. Always do your own research.
Apple Options - 15m / 1m Failling WedgeI think you may see another Apple burst today for options. 1m which I cannot publish has a small falling wedge. 15 min seems to only back that up. Of course we are in odd times so anything can happen. Given pretty positive news past few days with agreements with NASDAQ:AAPL and NASDAQ:AMZN along with the cool new Apple feature "accidentally released" I think we should have positive movement. Once again... news outlook has some positives for the industry today especially energy sector, but unemployment etc is downside on the news.
AAPL is hitting support at 228 than breaking it hopefully to 212I think Apple is finally going down to 212 by Friday or Monday, with short opportunities at 234 and 228 but only if it breaks support at 228...
Also, MA 9 shows is a downtrend and the stock closed with a Doji Candlestick, which means is continuing the trend, Well for me it does...
Everything seems to line up... this is just my personal opinion the stock market is still very risky. Safe trading everyone!
$ROKU streams it all!Roku is some peoples favorite. Currently has a ton of social sentiment which over 100 mentions providing positive feedback. All indicators are pointing to this for a positive move even in this market. ER is in may, this is perhaps a good time to grab some calls for the May Er ( maybe some puts ) for a IV run up.
#covid #stocks #stockmarket #options #optionsplayer #trump #covid-19 #stayhome #live #covidactnow #GOPslushfund #covididiots #afterhours #Quarantine #quarantineandchill #quarentinelife #staysafe $spy $roku $amd $nvda $tsla $nflx $ba $baba $wmt $djia $aapl
NZD USD 14 March 2020Here is another interesting Weekly chart. NZD/USD... What I see, the price has broken the Weekly Trendline.
Option 1: The price will reach at 62200-62400, and retrace down a little bit, and eventually break up the Weekly trendline and find 64000 price
Option 2: The price will retrace up to 62200-62400, get rejected, and would go down even further 59400-59250
Safe Trade Folks! as Market for these couple of weeks was quite wild.
