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Options-strategy

If you like $75 STNE Coladas, and gettin caught in Buffett rain.Oh boy... So i will try my best not to expose my crypto bias. NASDAQ:STNE 1. Warren Buffett’s crypto payment app that IPO’d late 2018. 2. My crazy Brazilian ex gf (who was a sergeant police officer in Brazil) tells me more & more people are using StoneCo app because no one trusts the Brazilian Real currency anymore due to all the corruption and weakening. 3. Bitcoin is up almost 300% year to date, though the crazy ex said everyone’s using litecoin mostly w the app. 4. It’s Warren Buffett’s baby. Oddly, WB has been very outspoken about his position on Bitcoin. 5. FACTS: The current wall street average price target is $42. that alone should be enough said. 6 . WB, Jeff Bezos of AMZN, and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan have already announced a new “Uber-field” healthcare company (recently name “Halo”) that will redefine health care as we know it. It will allow people to go on their phone and request a doctor like they go on Uber to request a taxi, only the dollars they use will be meshed w their medical records... Game over for overcharging hospitals and greedy health insurance companies. 7. China trade war friendly. A GREAT way to bypass the tariffs is use crypto payment app. Target is $75, the end of wave 3, if my proposal that wave 2 has completed. Call Options are: July and October expirations. Strike of $30, $35, $40, and the high spec money maker, $60. STOP LOSS is fairly tight, nestled right below the 0.65 fib level at $26.25 So think, If STNE < $26.25 = BAD and sell all call options (or make sure you’re hedged below $26).
NASDAQ:STNELong
by jgeno
2
$S FANTASTIC Strangle Opportunity$S options are priced for a great short strangle opportunity. Black lines represent the break-even points for the JUL19 6/7 short strangle at 4.68 and 8.32, accounting for about a 27% move in stock price by July expiration. With the T-Mobile merger now in an expected wait period due to State lawsuits, its possible that the deal either 1) doesn't happen at all, or 2) happens later than July 2019. If the deal DOES happen before expiration, then the stock price jump's effect on the strangle would be negated by crushed implied volatility. Margin requirement is obscenely low due to a stock price under 10 - it would just not make sense to play this!
NYSE:S
by BpowersCLT
A Short-Side Maxar Options PlaySince TradingView made it so you can't remove posts, my first (test) post will unfortunately remain, but since it's actually getting a few views (in all its glorious mediocrity) I figured I would at least share the full trade. On May 23rd, NASA announced its selection of Maxar for the construction of the first part of their upcoming Lunar Gateway, slated to support future manned missions to the moon in 2024. Maxar has been struggling for a while for a number of reasons, including a slump in geostationary satellite sales affecting revenue among other factors including negative analyst ratings stemming from over-leveraging including debt rating of B1/B, ‘sub-investment grade’ from the ratings agencies. On another note, insiders only own 1.2% of outstanding shares. Doesn't show a lot of confidence, at least in terms of expectations for stock value. Share prices have reflected this ongoing difficulty (glance at a long term chart and it's extremely apparent what I'm talking about), and this news about the Lunar Gateway project, announced both through Maxar's investor relations page as well as being mentioned in a YouTube video announcement on NASA's channel, was seen as a much needed positive signal for the company, and became a catalyst for a move to the upside. Due to Maxar's being small-cap as well as their low share price I also suspect that retail intraday traders saw this catalyst as a potential to make a quick trade, further propelling the stock to the upside, reaching around 20% at its peak. Throughout the day I will often scan for the biggest movers throughout any given trading day to look for potential options plays, and I will often take the cynical side and enter put positions on companies that have risen sharply on minimal information despite an obvious bearish trend long term. Maxar met my criteria, and after analyzing MAXR's past movements and long term decline I came to the conclusion that this 20% was far from sustainable as the movement was based on little more than an announcement and success was far from guaranteed in this new venture (even though I as much as anyone would like to see this Lunar Gateway happen in the very near future). I entered into a Put position 2 minutes before EOD on the 23rd of May, starting with in-the-money contracts with a $10 strike price (for risk management reasons), and with a much longer timeframe than many of my trades (in this case, Expiry of July 19th) because I wanted to allocate some extra time to let this play out, knowing that MAXR wouldn't be dropping 20% the next day, that I would likely be waiting for negative PR relating to the Lunar Gateway venture for a more significant gain, and that the bagholders from trading would take a bit of time to come to the conclusion that ultimately they would have to sell, take the loss and move on. Since I entered my position the share price has, on average, continued to fall - and is still dropping as I write this. To conclude, let me share a paragraph from Rich Smith writing for The Motley Fool that I think sums up my sentiment on MAXR - "I personally would love to see the company succeed on its Lunar Gateway project -- and rethink the satellite servicing contract, too! But with $3.3 billion in net debt on its books, and no free cash flow coming in to service that debt, I don't see Maxar's problems as over just yet, and even this week's positive NASA news may be too little, too late to save the company." Thanks for reading, please like the post if you enjoyed it and give a follow if you'd like to see more of my options trades explained in the future.
MShort
by gweebo
4
NVDA $208 Don’t Slack, I’m Bringing Sexy Back1. Face it, Bitcoin is back and NASDAQ:NVDA got crushed end of 2018 specifically because of the rev losses from their flagship mining chips. (Which i was not aware are connected to the A.I. in self driving vehicles). Billions are going into that industry too. 2. They beat earnings on Thurs, 5/16 and shot up to $173 after hours, however what i’m about to show you is the algos needed to hit their 618 fib level target first... Which they did in the last 10 min of trading on Friday, 5/17. From a wall street perspective it’s, “Why would i go long and buy the crap out of NVDA when the algo division of my own firm is still shorting the crap out of it, until they hit their target.”. I propose they finally hit their target late Fri. 3. Possible headwinds lie in the China trade war, which ironically may give crypto a boost. The boost being, “If i have to pay a ridiculous tariff on this one thing my company uses everyday, then why not pay for it with Bitcoin/Litcoin/Stellar and save myself a shit ton of money”. Bypassing the tariffs. STOP LOSS IS VERY TIGHT. If NVDA drops & closes below $152 = BAD and sell all call options.. That would indicate that NVDA is possibly just still a gigantic year long correction. The yellow arrows are the 3 price & expirations staggered out for optimal risk/reward. Your welcome.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by jgeno
More Room For Markets To Drop Says S&P 500 Historical DataI have classified the current downturn as a Primary wave 2. This should be an ABC corrective wave. These waves last half the length of time that Primary wave 1 did. All my acquired data dates back to 1932 where I believe our current market Grand Supercycle run began. Based on primary wave 1 lasting 86 days, wave 2 could last around 43 trading days from May 1, 2019 which is somewhere around the July 4 holiday. Primary wave 2's retracement of wave 1 is also interesting. The minimum retracement a Primary wave 2 has occurred in nearly 85 years is 32.81% of wave 1. This means the bottom of the current pullback will likely see the index fall 199.34 points at a minimum from the May 1 high of 2954.13. These means the index should fall to at least 2754.79. The average and median retracements are 50.49% and 48.57% respectively. Based on these figures, the pullback could end between 2659.04 and 2647.38. What is the largest retracement for a wave 2? That would be 86.64% which would bring the market to 2427.75. Hopefully, this level remains well out of play for now. Another unique metric is that Primary Wave 1 typically moves 2.06 times more than Primary wave 2. Another potential level of interest would be 2659.20 (which is close to the aforementioned 2659.04). Intermediate wave A of this Primary wave 2 could last around 16 trading days from May 1. This is based on all 29 Intermediate A waves over the past 85 years for this index. Waves A and C roughly last 38% of the entire Primary wave they are located inside of. Based on the projection the Primary wave will last around 43 trading days, this means waves A and C could last 16 days each and the internal corrective wave B (which will move the index up) would last the remaining 11 days. These are all based on medians and averages, but they provide a timeframe in which to spot reversal activity. Intermediate wave A's movement averages 74% of the entire Primary wave's movement. I currently project the bottom of the primary wave to occur between 2659.04 and 2754.79. 74% of these total moves would have wave A end around 2806.62, 2735.76, or 2727.13 by May 22, 2019. Based on this data, the index is set to fall through the next two weeks at a minimum. Intermediate wave B tends to retrace wave A's movement by 60%. This means the index could bounce back up to a range of 2863.33 and 2895.13. After this rise, we shall fall to the bottom and end of Primary wave 2. A greater opportunity to sell call options could be for action above 2900 (or ~290 on the SPY ) near the end of Intermediate wave B. We will likely wait a few months before we move about 2900 again and take out the all time highs. So what does this all mean? Between the close on May 10, 2019 and around July 4, 2019, the index could drop between 4.39% and 7.72%. A caveat to this is the Intermediate wave B which will bring the index up before it settles at its next bottom between 2659 and 2755. All of this information is based on historical statistics and is not a guarantee to be an accurate barometer of future movement. Please share and feel free to respond with your ideas.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
Vomiting Camel pattern. This thing could really plummet. Albeit lazily drawn, I present the dreaded “vomiting camel” pattern. I’m not making this shit up. There’s actually a pattern you can look for that is a serious fucking bear when you do. It’s got this ridiculous name for obvious reasons, but here it is and I’ve decided on the 4/46 long put, 17 strike. It cost .66 and is at .69 as of 1053am 4/12. I’m not going to get chased away from this one too quickly as it has potential to really plummet. If it goes sideways I’ll look to roll this one.
NYSE:XShort
by Incogniteaux
3