Options-strategy
$XLY Bearish Credit SpreadXLY Bearish Credit Spread - Opened. XLY leaning very bearish this morning (Monday) with a possible movement to test the 115 area as expected.
Entry 116.11.
Break Even 116.68.
1.7:1 r/r
Even with the heightened volatility this week, we will let this spread expire as it has a defined risk and reward.
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FACEBOOK BUY OPPORTUNITYFB GAP DOWN IS A HUGE BUY OPPORTUNITY
Facebook's earnings report a week ago upset investors and the stock fell more than 15% forming a huge gap.
Now stock is trading with P/E ratio of ~20 which I believe is very low for tech stock such as FB. Twitter has a P/E of 3X that of fb. Solely P/E is definitely not a good way to analyse any stock, however my analysis tells me that facebook still has huge potential and it is not to be traded at such low levels. FB has potential to generate cash and Zuck is definitely not a man who wouldn't want to use that opportunity.
Anyway, I think this is one of these Jamie and Charlie opportunities, Here is my strategy:
SELL SEP 13 195 PUTS
I will be shorting puts because I believe that the recovery will be steady and may take time. Selling puts is risky because if the stock drops you can lose way more than you have invested. However, Because I believe that there will be a steady comeback, selling puts is better because options are cheaper every single day due to THETA, which means that calls will be cheaper every day, therefore selling puts with high theta will be profitable even if the stock stays at the same levels.
Netflix earnings play$NFLX
On 6-12-2018 NFLX initiated a pendant pattern as of today the lower support was tested resulting in a bounce from 393 to a high of 400 in intraday trading.
With earnings coming after market close this makes for a vital pivot point to enter the trade long or short. A beat on earnings and subscriber growth could start the move back up to resistance giving a price target of 418. Vise versa a disappointment on subscriber growth or weak guidance could send the stock plummeting breaking the pattern in a bearish manner initiating a quick but sharp decline in stock price levels to watch in a bearish breakdown would be 380 and 360.
-My position
-Long straddle into earnings
-Call and Put with identical deltas to manage risk after hours
-Loosing position will be cut next morning to ride upside downside momentum into tomorrow
ITB bearish trade in home builders'So with the FED hiking rates another .25 bps in June (96% odds as of right now) I am making a bearish trade in the home builder ETF. I have never traded through a rising rate environment so.......take it with a grain of salt. I am buying the 40 put in October and selling the 36 put in October for $1.12 This is a defined risk trade for a debit (not really the Tasty Trade way) With an Implied Volatility Rank of 14% I am going to allow this for my smaller account since the risk/reward ratio is more inline with growing a small account (risk 1.12 to make 3.80) I would have defaulted to a 3 wide spread but the 36 strike had considerable more open interest for 20 cents more. This trade may work because the overall market tanks or the market could continue rallying and make it price in even more hikes.....I am not really sure what will happen but I have come to really hate those long sideways horizontal channels that can tend to plunge. I have 130 days for this trade to play out and no way of adjusting without adding risk other than rolling out for time (which usually only works if it goes against you) I can not see home sales continuing at this pace if interest rates continue going up and something has to give.
SEDG - buy the dipSEDG (Solaredge) was sold off rapidly in the past 3 days, which was unsurprising, given the massive run-up after earnings. It is now near a support level: approximately the price it was hovering around pre-earnings, presenting a good opportunity to go long.
This play is risky. The stock is still a "falling knife".
Short term target: $54 - $58 monthly calls
Lending Club could see $5.50 by Mid next week.Investors are loving what they heard on the call with LC executives. I'm expecting healthy gains until the end of the month. Be mindful not to enter at a peak and chase gains, I'd say its a good time to enter a options trade on this. 3.50 strike in the money with a straddle for downward movement, track the gann fan lines for support and resistance. Look for confirmation in support of the fan lines for a movement to the upside should signal an enter.
Once this post positive on moving averages I expect institutional and computer generated buying. Saddle up. I'm already in @ 2.79 and I'm about to double down on an options play. I'll be in this long.
FACEBOOK! CAN WE GO LONG?I'm actually anticipating a break out of this trend line towards the upside target of 186.00/188.00/192.00.
Now I would only consider getting in on this trade possibly towards the 178.00/180.00 level depending on volume. However I think that a break out on this stock towards our TP's is probable!
Volume: 19.844M
EPS: 6.27
Market Cap: 513.081B
P/E: 28.67
TP: 186.00/188.00/192.00
Neutral trade on IYR,58% probability (Strangle)The Implied Volatility Rank of IYR is at 65 and with a down move of around 6% in the last 20 days, I expect we are going to start a correction soon around the value area. So I decided to sell a Strangle to collect some premium. With 37 days to expiration I Sold the 80/76 Strangle for 0.95 credit. That will give me a 58% probability to make money, but if I close it when the price of the strangle reach 0.48 my probabilities jump to 80%, so that's the plan.
The Trade:
Expiration = Feb 16
Sell 80 Call
Sell 76 Put
Credit Received = $0.95 ea
Probability of profit 58%