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For Bitcoin, Investing and Hedging Go Side-by-SideBITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bitcoin (BTCUSD) fell below the psychologically important $30,000 level in the beginning of June, after it briefly reached $31,800 on May 30th. In early May, the leading cryptocurrency touched bottom around $25,000 amid the US stock market selloff. Extreme price volatility is the trademark of Bitcoin throughout its history. Crypto investors’ optimism is short-lived, as the worst is not yet behind us. At $29,850, current Bitcoin price is -57% off the all-time high of $69,215 on November 8th, 2021. A 1-year chart clearly shows an unstoppable downtrend. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is ongoing. China’s Zero-Covid policy and lockdowns slow down its economy and cloak up global supply chain. US inflation and gasoline price are at record-high, even after two rounds of Fed rate actions. On top of these, we never know when Elon Musk might send a tweet and spook the crypto market. Long-term investors may “Buy and Forget” about the daily volatility and hope to see $100K Bitcoin in a few years. For Crypto asset, you don’t want to forget about it completely, as you might not remember how to retrieve it later. I have the unfortunate experience of losing a few ETHs when my iPhone 7 suddenly died. The unique word-combination required to unlock my wallet sits quietly in a safe in Wuhan, where I have not been able to return to since COVID first broke out there in January 2020. For investors holding Bitcoin asset, hedging the downside risk is critical to successful investment. Usually, investors could lock in the price by shorting Bitcoin Futures. However, most of us do not want to give away the upside potential, so this strategy is not ideal. I suggest buying CME Bitcoin Put Options instead. A Long Put gives you the right to sell at strike price during the life of the Options (American) or at contract expiration (European). When Bitcoin Futures trades below the Strike, you could exercise the options and pocket the price difference. Profit from options trade helps offset the loss incurred by holding the Bitcoin asset. Let’s use the case below to illustrate: (1) On May 30, you buy an out-of-the-money Put with a Strike of 29000 on June 2022 CME Micro Bitcoin Futures. The option premium is $60 per contract. (2) At contract expiration, Bitcoin falls to 28000. You exercise the Put and receive a Short Futures position on CME Micro Bitcoin. (3) You immediately buy back a futures contract to close out your Short position. This trade earns you $1,000, which is the difference between market price and strike price. Minus the $60 premium, your options trading profit is $940. If you use the $60 as a cost base, your investment return will be 1567%. What if Bitcoin rises above the Strike? Your investment in Bitcoin asset will increase in value. The premium you paid upfront is the maximum loss from the options trade. I consider this a low-cost insurance contract for protecting my Bitcoin asset. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by JimHuangChicago
7
go Long JEPI for alt Strat & monthly incomeThis is exactly the strategy to employ at market tops. You want broad market exposure along with some different alternative strategy funds in your portfolio to complement your trades. This ETF has a very interesting strategy and it has just launched. I would not worry about the track record for the construction is solid, low expense ratio 0.35%, a dividend yield of 8.34%. It's composed of a wide variety of high-quality, low volatility stocks while also selling calls. I took a look at the holdings and they include some NDX and some SPX names. It gives you a wide variety of exposure from Chubb and Deere to Elly Lilly and Google, and it appears currently they are selling calls against the SPX. So this, combined with the monthly payout of a dividend and the hedge it provides gives you income and stability. The dividends can either be reinvested, spent, or use for new opportunities.
AMEX:JEPILong
by EBITDAtiger
XAUUSD - GOLD CURRENT SITUATION#XAUUSD According to the analysis given to XAUUSS earlier, GOLD went down very fast, BREAKING the TREND LINE because the US INFLATION DATA was UP. Due to this, US10Y went up a lot. And US RETAIL SALES DATA also rose rapidly. It also affected GOLD especially last week. So GOLD sold fast. And the FOMC also pushed GOLD to the lower MINOR SUPPORT LEVEL. We have some very important NEWS coming to USD this week. PCE DATA is key to that. So we have to wait a bit until we get them. Anyway, with US10Y UP, GOLD is going down a bit now. Anyway, we expect GOLD to go down to 1647 LEVEL. After that, GOLD can definitely go up to 1744 LEVEL. Be careful..
OANDA:XAUUSD
by benny_marshall
1
AAPL Ascending Intermediate Trend Break Bear Market PlayDescription AAPL has had a nice run up following the upside break of its intermediate bear trendline (descending 2pt red line) on 24 JUN, forming its new intermediate upside trend (ascending 2pt green line) all the way up to its Descending Major Bear Trend (descending 3pt line) cemented on 30MAR. This week and the next will certainly end with a clearer picture for direction moving forward, but given current market conditions it is more likely that it should be down. SPY and DIA have seen similar intermediate moves, but have not made it to their descending major trend lines yet meaning a reversal is still far from being signaled, and this week will show how the IXIC behaves after having breached it on 10 AUG. It is still early in the Bear Market - geopolitical and economic risks have not cooled substantially to merit a major reversal in trend. Real inversion of the Yield Curve has only just occurred on 13 JUL and the trends are in for further inversion moving forward. Technical Indicators to signal the entry: Daily close below the intermediate trend accompanied by significant volume spike Major Trend Line rejection Downside break of the 168 - 171 Supply/Demand Zone Bear cross on MACD Technical Risk Factors: Golden Cross on 50/200 EMA Although a golden cross is usually considered a strong reversal signal, I am discounting this technical risk factor due to the 200 EMA remaining relatively flat in the early bear market. VIX downside break of Major Ascending Trendline on 4 AUG IXIC established over Major Bear Descending Trendline There is no real price target here as this is basically a trend trade - hence a longer dated Put - but there are take profit targets @ 156.5 , 137 & 130 . If all targets were met, advise a runner and potentially a roll down and out prior to expiration. Using a Long ITM Put here in order to: achieve a higher delta, maintain a conservative position, get long volatility while the VIX is low, and leave the downside open in case of a long, swift fall. Long Put Levels on Chart SL: 177.5 PT: Down the trend TP: 156.5, 137 & 130 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 10/21 180P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BarnardR
XRT Bearish inclined naked calls 16 Sep expiryWhats The Plan/Trade/Thought I’ve been looking at the retail sector especially since the consumer willingness to spend has been shifting to services/ experiences and entertainment. Household cleaning, groceries, pets, alcohol, recreational vehicles all have seen drops in spend from Q1 2022 to Q2 2022 Walmart has also started laying off people and have also seen a shift in consumer purchase behaviours due to inflation and pandemic lifestyle changes. I believe retails companies have already started becoming defensive Risk Mitigation There is a key S&R line at 73.02 and the final one at 75.72. Once we see break throughs on these we will need to close Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side With the market becoming bullish since Mid May - June (NASDAQ & S&P). I think taking a bullish position is also possible in the short term. However besides market movement and a dropping oil price, I don’t see how the original bear situation has changed. Look For New Information What am I rejecting the current bull run, which is does make me uncomfortable Next week we have earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Bath & Body works. If I had remembered this I would not have entered How Do I Feel Now Uncomfortable Trade Specs Sold 110 Calls @ 0.42 Strike 80 % to Strike 11.94% BP Used: 83K Max Gain: 4620
AMEX:XRTShort
by Ronin_trader
JWN Bearish inclined naked calls 31 July expiryWhats The Plan/Trade/Thought JWN (Nordstrom) is a luxury departmental store chain. With the concerns of the recession and the cooling signs of the job market, layoffs in tech and the overall retail leadership cautiousness during the earnings. I think this is the right direction especially since it is following the larger market direction US retail sales also post the first drop in 5 months as auto purchases plunge and inflation bites Risk Mitigation I have two S&R lines at 26 and 29.46 if it breaches 29.46 it is an immediate close Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side I would not take a bull position on this. Especially since retail is one of the industries that will be hit first by inflation Look For New Information The slight decline in May, restrained by a plunge in vehicle purchases and other big-ticket items, suggesting moderating demand for goods amid decades-high inflation. I Feel I believe I am aligned with the larger market sentiment. While there might be a technical recovery. I think the drops are deeper than the climbs. Also the media keeps hammering into readers the “recession” word Trade Specs Sold 270 Calls @ 0.34 Strike 31 26% to Strike BP Used: 66460 Max Gain: 9004.5
NYSE:JWNShort
by Ronin_trader
SIG Bearish inclined naked calls 15 July expiryWhats The Plan/Trade/Thought Signet Jewelers is a retailer of diamond jewellery. With the concerns of the recession, the cooling signs of the job market, layoffs in tech and the overall retail leadership cautiousness during the earnings. I think this is the right direction especially since it is following the larger market direction US retail sales also post the first drop in 5 months as auto purchases plunge and inflation bites Risk Mitigation Have two S&R lines before my strike at 69.49 and 65.35. If price breaks 69.49 (7% from strike) will have to start closing this position Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side It just feels dangerous to be bullish especially since we have seen days where all sectors are red Look For New Information No new information How Do I Feel Now I feel confident about this trade Trade specs Sold 110 Calls @ 0.5 Strike 75 29.33% to Strike BP Used: 66K Max Gain: 5.5k
NYSE:SIGShort
by Ronin_trader