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TATA MOTORSHello and welcome to this analysis based on Harmonic Trading Patterns In the daily time frame it has made a Bearish Harmonic ABCD pattern with perfect balance symmetry. It could retrace down to 440 - 430 as long as it does not trade above 461 As per Option Data also July Series 460CE is seeing fresh shorts being added and 440PE is seeing short covering. While August Series 460CE has already formed a very strong OI resistance with more being added currently.
NSE:TATAMOTORSShort
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
Important Nifty LevelsLooking at the EU and US markets, expecting NIFTY to trade in a very range bound market... 16700 ~ 16770 look to be good resistance zone (CPR resistance levels 16703) 16500 - 16500 look to be good support zone (CPR support levels 16561) OI a. Call writing is quite high at 17K, even 16.7K has good OI b. Put writing at 16.5K has nearly 6 million contracts 20 delta iron condor for 28th July looks to be in good range, buying tighter hedges will improve the RR and is looking good to provide 3% returns
NSE:NIFTY
by radhakrishna108
Updates of Options Strategy on Wheat FuturesCBOT:ZW1! On June 15th, I issued an options trading strategy on CBOT Wheat Futures. At the time, I expected wheat price to experience a very large move but was unsure of its direction. Consequently, I recommended a Long Strangle options strategy : Purchase both an out-of-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on September Wheat Futures. The original trading idea may be found here: . Let’s review how this trade performed five weeks after its initiation: Initial market conditions on June 14th: • September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel. • An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. • An OTM put with a $9.00 strike is quoted at 4.625 cents. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you could lose if wheat price did not break out the upper ceiling or fall through the lower floor set by the strikes. At this writing on July 18th: a) ZWU2 futures is quoted at $7.81/bushel, down $2.73 or -26%. Our expectation of big price move is proven to be correct . b) Call options with $12.00 strike price is quoted at 10 cents, down 7 cents. Even though futures price declines, there is still time value in the OTC call options. c) Put options with $9.00 strike is quoted at 85.5 cents, up 1749%. Due to the nonlinear nature of options pricing, our put is hugely profitable as it is now $1.19 deep in-the-money. What can we do today? There are two options: 1) Sell both the call and put with offsetting trades. The call would realize a loss of $350, and the put has a profit of $4,043.75, making the combined total at $3,693.75. Taking the $1,081.25 premium we paid upfront as our cost base, gross profit will be $2,612.5 per contract, or +242% return in a five-week holding period. 2) Hold the positions . There are five more weeks left before the August 26th options expiration, and wheat price could make bigger move. For illustration purpose, let’s use today’s price as exercise price. The Call would expire worthless as it is out-of-the-money, and we lose the $850 initial investment. However, by exercising the put, we gain $1.19 (=9.00-7.81) per bushel, and $5,950 per contract. The combined gross profit will be $4,018.75, or +372% . Why does this trade work? The key lies with a properly set-up strategy. It’s time to revisit our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model: Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Crisis Premium In February through May, the Russia-Ukraine conflict put a huge Crisis Premium on wheat price, driving it from $8 to $12-$13, before moving lower to around $10. Since June, surging inflation, aggressive rate hikes, and recession fears overtake supply concerns as the main market driver. As fighting in Ukraine drags on, the impact from crisis diminishes, and Bearish Market Sentiment takes over. Commodities markets from energy, metals to agricultural products all suffered a huge loss. Looking forward, I expect that Intrinsic Value, or traditional supply and demand factors, would come back as key market mover. The recently released World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture set a bearish tone in the grain market, sending wheat price to fall further. For our CBOT Wheat Strangle options trade, I favor closing the positions now over holding it to expiration. Here is my reasoning: In a classic economic supply and demand chart, fundamental factors move market price along the supply line and demand line. Price movement tends to be moderate and within a narrow band. This is what the Wheat price chart shows before February 24th. On the contrary, crisis premium pushes either the supply line or the demand line to shift sideway, resulting in big price jumps. In the case of Wheat futures, investors are concerned that a loss of Russian wheat would reduce global supply by as much as 25%. Wheat price responded by a series of limit-up days and jumped 40% in two weeks. Note that daily price limit (up or down) on wheat futures is 70 cents per bushel. In the absence of conflict escalation in Ukraine, volatility in wheat price would likely stay muted going forward. Additionally, time value, which is part of the options premium, will decrease quickly as contract expiration nears. In the Black-Scholes Model, options price is positively correlated with volatility. Expected low volatility combined with diminishing time value will make it difficult for our Long Options to increase in value. This is my argument against holding on to the options. As the likelihood of global recession grows, food crisis will stay on as a major global issue in 2022 and 2023. Famine could hit weaker economies. Agricultural commodities will be a good risk management tool to hedge the rising food cost. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
21
AMZN Options Plays THIS WEEK 7/18 to 7/22Watching this week to see if price can get ABOVE 116.61 If it does with clear strong buying I am going to be open to playing CALLS into 120.57 and it is very possible we get the breakout to ~125 If price is showing weakness and cannot get above those levels I will also be open to playing CALLS below 111 and possibly 105 but I think a reversal to the upside is underway I am open to playing PUTS above 124.53 Very hard for me to be bearish unless price starts pushing into 105 and BUYERS are not showing up.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by TheFibonacciKing
First time CE PE VWAP line in Future ChartVery first time CE & PE VWAP line bring into future chart in indices( Banknifty & Nifty ) option trading. Many times options players missing some important piece of information who is in control and where is peak level Bull & Bear standing in dynamic structure. The decay also accordingly melt premium vice versa in CE/PE. In option trading, this indicator resolve overall volatility , equilibrium level, peak level of bull & bear & Breakout level in ONE CHART easy to take quick decision. If you plot see this indicator in future corresponding Call & put option (ATM strike) the red & blue line breakout candle same of your CE/PE VWAP line or one side VWAP of either CE or PE. When price touched any of these line the future price make explosive move. Its NON LAGGING & NON REPAINT INDICATOR You may check your option chart VWAP line the corresponding candle blue line and red crossing.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by manis12345
3
Amazon earnings Hey guys, I’m really looking forward to amazing earnings! Little biased here leaning towards the topside although my options spread does include bottom side cover. I noticed Amazon broke out of the diagonal trend last week which I took some profits on… And retested yesterday with a little bit of a pop. I’m expecting to see some excitement (next week) before earnings and planning on opening other straddle (earnings week) favouring the downside into early September. This options spread cost around 9.5 credits and I feel fresh having both ends covered until Aug 19.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by ImminentDanger
#SPX Market Update Update 7-10-22SPX presented some great opportunities last week off our double bottom at 3741. We had a 176 point run from there. If SPX can reclaim 3945.86 the Bulls will make a higher High on the Daily Chart. Still well within a “Bear Market Rally” and I would continue to treat it as such. If we lose 3870 early on it is possible to see a 50 – 70 point drop. We have CPI Data on Wednesday that will be the key catalyst this week. We can see some consolidation until then. Thursday we have Job Data followed by Retail Sales Numbers Friday. . In these types of market conditions it may be best for most traders to sit and watch or consider quick scalps. You can’t get aggressive when Index has already ran as much as it has. Be aware of this otherwise you can blow up an account if you get too aggressive on the wrong day. We should see the Market set up for a Nice move after Wednesday.
SP:SPX
by MoneyFlow_Options_Community
BANKNIFTY FUTURE INTRADAY VIEW:-EXPIRY DAYI told day before yesterday that banknifty will fall first and then in next day, it will again rise. Banknifty reacts exactly the same as I predicted. BNF buy above 34370 Target:-34800 As per open interest, 34000PE added huge OI and 34500CE, 35000CE seems equal OI which indicates a rally !! Once if breaks and manages above 34560 will try to move 34800 levels support:-34250, 34150 and 34000 (Strong support zone) Banknifty index may open gap up above 34500 to test break out point @34627. Here watch Bank nifty has to sustain above it to move up towards 34800. Be alert if Bank nifty unable to hold above break out point then may slip towards 34300 and 34113.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!Long
by biplab86
$DPZ September Bull Risk Reversal Today a trader opened a bull risk reversal on Domino's Pizza buying over 700 SEP $400 calls and selling the $300 put. This is a very bullish trade and not too far out , indicating a potential move up to $400 in the near term. Technically, DPZ has a bullish EMA cross and curl on the daily, with a weekly MACD bull cross forming as well. Trading at $377 now, I think $400 will be a magnet psych level. The stock in the past tends to "gravitate" towards this number and it also coincides nicely with the weekly 21ema A close below the 21day EMA will invalidate the trade.
NYSE:DPZLong
by FriscoTrades
In Search of an Edge for Non-Professional TradersCBOT:ZW1! What do Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat have in common? Their prices all go up in a global crisis. In other words, these strategically important commodities are positively correlated with the level of risk. “Risk Up, Price Up; and Risk Down, Price Down”. Everyday non-professional traders (NonProfs) usually have a disadvantage trading these futures contracts. Let’s see who we are up against: • Commercial Firms, including producers, processors, merchants, and major users of the underlying commodities. • Financial Institutions, such as investment banks, hedge funds, asset managers, proprietary trading firms, commodity trading advisors and futures commission merchants. These professional traders (Profs) have industry knowledge, market information, research capabilities, trading technologies, high-speed and seemingly unlimited amount of money. They contribute to about 80% of trading volume for a typical futures contract. So, what could you do in an uphill battle? Recall our Three-Factor Commodity Pricing Model( ): Commodities Futures Price = Intrinsic Value + Market Sentiment + Global Crisis Premium In peaceful times, the coefficient of Crisis Premium is zero. The Profs win out easily. When a global crisis breaks out, price pattern may be altered completely. The chart illustrates how CBOT Wheat Futures behaves before and after the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict. Based on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), a baseline futures price reflects all information regarding the Intrinsic Value and Market Sentiment factors. However, the Crisis Premium is unknown to all of us. The Profs could not use fundamental analysis or technical analysis to gain a better understanding of Mr. Putin’s mindset. Few had inside information of the inner working of the Kremlin or the Russian generals, either. Your guesses are just as good as the Profs when it comes to what’s happening next. An analogue: In a close-range hand combat, the Profs have no use for their arsenal of missiles, fighter jets and tanks. NonPros with limited resources are on an equal footing to trade against the Profs. It’s critical to pick a fight that you have a chance to win. Recall that we discussed how to define global crisis with binary outcomes, and select financial instruments based on their responses to those outcomes. ( ) For CBOT Wheat Futures, Ukraine conflict has become the dominant price driver since February 14th. But after four months, we still have no clue when or how the war could end. Let’s define it in two simple outcomes: War and Peace. The first one includes all scenarios that the war would continue or intensify, where the second one could be a peace deal or a victory in favor of either Russia of Ukraine. As a NonProf, you don’t want to dive deep into the impossible task of forecasting the different scenarios. Keep it simple: War = Risk Up, Peace = Risk Down. The probability of either outcome is real. It’s difficult to predict which one is more likely. Therefore, directional trades of Long or Short are both risky. Many event shocks exist to make the wheat price fluctuate. If a major wheat producing country announces an export ban, wheat price could fly because of global market shortage. However, a phone call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelenskyy could punch wheat price to the ground. Russia is the No. 1 wheat exporter. An end of the conflict could end the sanctions against Russia and increase global supply by 44 million tons of wheat. Looking back in 2018 and 2019, we know how strongly Gold Futures reacted to a call between the U.S. and China. A Long Strangle options strategy may be appropriate under these circumstances. Investor would purchase a Call and a Put option with a different strike price: an out-of-the-money (OTM) call option and an OTM put option simultaneously on the same wheat futures contract. This is based on my belief that wheat futures price could experience a very large movement, but I am unsure of which direction the move will take. The following is an illustration (not an actual trading strategy): September Wheat Futures (ZWU2) is quoted at $10.54/bushel on June 14th. An OTM call with a $12.00 strike price is quoted at 17 cents. An OTM put with a $9.00 strike price is quoted at 4.625 cents. Look at the chart again, you will see wheat price at $7.80 right before the war and up to $13.70 in early March. A Long Strangle will cost $1,081.25, as each call and put contract is based on 5,000 bushels of Chicago wheat. This is the maximum amount you would lose if wheat price stuck at current level in the next two months. A big move, either up or down, could make one of the two trades profitable, and hopefully with enough profit margins to cover the other losing trade. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT:ZW1!
by JimHuangChicago
4
Bear Call SpreadAs i discussed in my last post if Nifty reaches to my Reasistance zone I will create an Option Strategy so i did created "Bear Call Strategy" by selling a Call of 15700 and against that Anchor unit bought an offset uinit of call 15950 for perfet spread i want to buy 16000 CE but it was not liquid at that time and was available only for Intraday you can't convert it to Holdings. Here i want to state that both calls are of next expiry as a day after tommorow is expiry day and i didn't want that my options epires worthless. "TRADE RIGHT, SIT TIGHT"
NSE:NIFTYShort
by r7888911518
VIXY Bearish inclined Naked Calls 17 June Expiry Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought For some reason the VXX options contracts seems to require a lot of Margin/BP to develop a decent premium. As such I decided to look at other VIX related ETFs and found VIXY well priced and from my research has a closer correlation with the VIX Over the past year of trading options i’ve come to realised that I’m really trading volatility in the different sectors. This trade is my hedge trade and while I believe we are in a bearish situation now, I believe we will be ranging at least for the time being. Hence I am somewhat not directional with VIXY Risk Mitigation I have two S&R points for this trade with the key S&R 1 at 26.64. This will be my guard rails and reaction points for risk mitigation I Feel I feel comfortable on this trade, I’m somewhat still feeling the effects of last month. But I cannot let that influence me Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side This is a possibility given that I am not directional but I could only mark one S&R point Look For New Information By selling Calls, I am accepting that there won’t be a steep reversal How Do I Feel Now Clear on why I have taken this trade Trade Specs Sold 255 Calls @ 0.27 - Strike 27 46.26% to Strike BP Used 85K Max Gain $6630
CBOE:VIXYLong
by Ronin_trader
CWH Bearish inclined naked calls 17 June expiry Whats The Plan/Trade/Thought CWH is part of the Recreational Vehicles sector, that came out of my shortlist of companies with medium level volatility in the past month Across the sector there is a bearish alignment which is important I do expect some volatility with an upwards movement as price across the markets might stabilise from the past 5 weeks of back to back drops Risk Mitigation Very clear S&R lines. If price breaks S&R 1, I will have to close the trade. I Feel I feel confident about this trade as I will be using my S&R lines as a risk mitigator. Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side With the bearish price action from the past 5 weeks, selling puts would be too risky and almost as if you are trying to guess the bottom Look For New Information Dividends is happening on the 13 June. But I have not seen this event result in volatility How Do I Feel Now Good, I’m clear Trade Specs Sold 236 Calls @ 0.25 - Strike 34 23.6% to Strike BP Used 66.9K Max Gain $5,900
NYSE:CWHShort
by Ronin_trader
Nifty EvolutionKeeping neutral to bullish view applied Bull put spread as volatility is very high but as the nifty contineously stucking below 15800. 15800 PE going in LOSS day by day squared off the positions and sold CE of two strike price 15900 & 16000 as in any case nifty not going to cross it and sold PE of 15500 because after falling 400 points either nifty shows recovery which didn't shown and remains in range so total of 1CE sold 15900(@46.40)+ 3CE sold 16000(@22.18) + 3PE sold 15500(@33.58). "Key element is view and knowledge what and how i am doing so toal range for me now becomes 15900 to 15500 if closes in between or today remains in between banks most of premium and HAPPY
NSE:NIFTY
by r7888911518
falling index wait don't get trapped because of news and views soon 14k we are arriving get set go for 12k also options trading for beginners option trading strategies option trading live put and call options explained put options trading for beginners call options trading for beginners call and put options explained live options trading share market for beginners share market stock market intraday trading future and options trading basics trading stocks for beginners angel broking zerodha / fyers demat account Nifty bank nifty banknifty banknifty trading
NSE:ICICIBANKShort
by amanra664
#OP/USDT 15M CHART UPDATE !!Welcome to this quick OP/USDT analysis. I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart. Reason for trade:- OP is trading in an uptrend channel and respecting the support and resistance level. The support is $1.27 area and the major resistance is $1.59-$1.66 area. Try to grab some OP near support level with tight stop loss.$1.24 Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade. Sorry for my English it is not my native language. Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you...
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
#OP/USDT 30M CHART UPDATE !!Welcome to this quick OP/USDT analysis. I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart. Reason for trade:- OP is trading in an uptrend channel and respecting the support and resistance level. The support is $1.35 area and the major resistance is $1.59-$1.66 area. Try to grab some OP near support level with tight stop loss. Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade. Sorry for my English it is not my native language. Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you...
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
2