Tesla Major Bubble?Tesla has absolutely exploded in value especially since March 2020, which we believe was the beginning of a massive equity bubble. Tesla began trading around $40-80 range for over 6-years.
The vehicles they produce now, they produced in 2017. The Tesla Battery and Tesla Solar Roof were all known back then as they are now. Tesla has not announced anything that should put their stock price at over $900. We know why the stock rallied to $1200, and that was solely the Fed.
Perhaps most shocking is Tesla's P/E ratio which is now over 100X their earnings. This is extreme, and it screams asset bubble. Not even Toyota which is the worlds largest car manufacturer which produces both electric and gasoline vehicles has a P/E of less than 10.
So where do we stand?
We see equities going into a bear market. The FOMC of 1-26-2022 confirmed this when the Fed announced they are continuing their plans for tapering, raising rates, and shrinking their balance sheet. This will adversely affect the stock market and bring equities below a 15% correction, into a bear market.
Key Factors
Buying Volume Weak
MACD Turning Bearish
P/E Ratio: Extremely Overvalued.
Fed Tapering, Raising Rates, and Shrinking Balance Sheet.
50MA is 1/3rd Current Value
100MA is $180 Range
With the biggest buying of equities calling it quits and essentially "selling" this is a stock that I would get out of the way, short but do not expect a continued rally.
Options
Long (STZ) Constellation BrandsLike many stocks over the last 2 weeks NYSE:STZ has pulled back to a key 50% Retracement Level. This level is also backed up by an Ichimoku cloud pattern. Now within this week's short term pullback to the rally there is an opportunity to play STZ back to the high.
I expressed the trade with April 2022 250 Calls. The goal is to hold right up til earnings for the swing timeframe move and ideally IV rise.
Trade idea on Walmart - WMTJust as an idea: Cash secured put on Walmart, with a strike price of $134 (delta 23) and an expiry of Feb. 18, 2022. Trade would to be closed on Feb. 16, 2022, 1 day before the quarterly results, which will be published on Feb. 17, 2022, before market opening. The $134-$135 area has successfully acted as support four times over 1 year. Whether it will do it another time is of course uncertain! The additional purchase of the cheaper put with strike price 115$ reduces the margin and creates a bull put spread. This trade idea is one of the 222 trade ideas from my book "The Stock Market Year 2022: Which stocks go up and when?"
Disclaimer:
This trade idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or financial instruments. Investment in securities and financial instruments (especially options) are generally associated with risks, up to total loss of the invested capital and above. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.
PYPL Oversold!Fairly bold post considering today was PYPL's worst ever trading day but... I see a reversal in PYPL's downtrend incoming. The RSI is indicating that shares are far oversold on the weekly chart. As shown above it is approaching pretty solid support which could serve as an entry.
Just speculation...