Will the FED be able to control inflation? Spy outlookSp500 ended the day continuing to form a bear flag. We are still in a bearish market.
I am short term bearish, short term bullish and long term bearish
First let me explain why I'm bearish next week then bullish.
There are a few reasons why i think the market will drop to around 3829.75 - 4016.75
The moving averages are color coded
Blue - Daily 200 MA
Purple - weekly 50 MA
Orange - Weekly 100 MA
Green - Weekly 200 MA
1st - on April 5th 2021, where the red rectangle is, there is a small gap we are probably going to fill before heading up
2nd - the trendline starting from February 5th 2018 is well respected. I see a bounce off the top of the trendline next week
3rd - the Daily 200 MA was rejected and found support at the weekly 50 MA. Bulls fought hard but support looks relatively weak.
4th - global events are spooking the market. Inflation/fed and rate hikes starting in March, tension between Ukraine and Russia.
Overall market doesn't look good. After the drop I expect a relief rally before the real drop comes.
A drop from the highs down to the bottom trendline is around 60% 1 year from now.
2007 drop was around 54%.
Previous corrections were around 30 to 50 %
This correction I'm expecting a bigger drop because of how overvalued the market is.
My trade plan:
buy Feb 21st and 28th calls and start building a long position when price gets to 4010 and shows confirmation of a reversal or bounce off the main trendline.
If we drop more to 3829.75 I would load up heavy on calls.
HOLD CALLS SHORT TERM ... I would sell and slowly build my put position as price hits the .382 .5 and .618 retracement level of the high to low swing from ATH.
Watch the .782 level as a close above this level on the daily chart will invalidate this idea..
I would put a stop loss above the .782 retracement
If you like my ideas make sure to like and follow!
Options
NIO ShortTechnical Analysis behind my short position on NIO. I have been watching this triangle channel for a while now and with this last week, it appears it has strongly broken out of that candle. Before entering a position I am waiting for it to retest the bottom support of the triangle.
Just speculation :)
$FB, trading it 1/28over 302 306-309 possible
under 294 287-290 possible
#intradayoptionstrading #stockmarket
NO bias, plan for red or green day. chop/ranging = hand sitting
AAPL shortWith the US stock market appearing to be in a pullback, there are plenty of reasons to be bearish right now.
Based solely on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, I remain bearish. AAPL is showing a clear head and shoulders bear pattern. Head and shoulders is, in my opinion, one of the most reliable price movement indicators.
Just speculation (:
Comcast long after earnings - Part 2NASDAQ:CMCSA tanked on earnings down to a clear Support level; the 2019/2020 highs and the 50% Retracement of the COVID to recent ATH.
I am being exceptionally patient with entry. I want IV to fall a little more post earnings and then get long via the June 55 Calls.
$FB, trading it 1/26over 310 314-317 possible
under 294 287-290 possible
#intradayoptionstrading #stockmarket
NO bias, plan for red or green day. chop/ranging = hand sitting
ERIC 5G METAVERSEERIC is gapped up this morning, got filled yesterday during the downturn at a ridiculously low bid, & was up well before market close. As you can see the daily chart is what's used, it was easy to see the turning point on volume looking for swing trade type positions. ERIC is expected to give earnings today & is expected be positive. ERIC has huge upside potential as a Metaverse 5G play. Its low price and huge infrastructure make it perfect to capture the developing metaverse market. Ericsson may not be a "leading" metaverse brand like Facebook, but it's going to grow in the background as it provides the actual bandwidth for the metaverse. This is called the picks & shovels method. Watch this space for MACRO & supply chain plays. Please like & share this post if you want more content like this. *NFA, DYOR Please check the ERIC prospectus before investing real funds*