Options
*SOLD $SECPUTS on CRWD *SOLD $SECPUTS on CRWD (1DTE)(1 day to expiry) 180 strike for .24c (1DTE) bought them back next day for .01c ( so + .23c profit)
180 Strike based off order flow and option positioning + weekly Resistance level. As well as Overall market in a positive gamma environment, so decided to PUNT some premium to take advantage of contracted Vol and theta
What is going on with SPYBefore i start posting my trade ideas and charts , wanted to post this quick as its pretty current. I trade Options and the underlying. Before I make any decisions on what to trade and how to trade it, first i need to understand what is going on in the Meta indicies and how Options are positioned. This well help me understand the type of Vol to expect and what type of strategies i should be using. Heres a quick birds eye view on how SPY has been playing out
Bitcoin situation based on Options flowBitcoin is trading recently in clearly visible Trading Range, keeping investors nervous and asking question - is it Distribution or Accumulation? From Daily Timeframe we see in general Positive/Bullish sentiment from Options Traders, but it's not fully confirmed by the market yet. Going into more detailed M30, we see recent signals of incoming demand to the market identified by VSA Scanner in form of Selling Climax and Climactic Shakeout. Also Volume Area (blue rectangle on the chart identified also by Scanner) is retested from the top (top edge on 45945) what adds fuel for Bulls.
From Daily Chart we could observe also equal ratio of Put and Call options what happened several times on level 46105. This is currently our major support which needs to be kept if Bullish tendence should continue be present on BTC. From Related Idea about BTC, you can remember that level 50000 is strong Put Wall. Billions of dollars are loaded into Options with Strike Price above 50k. Around area of 50k also we have present Supply Zone (red rectangle), therefore we can expect Bullish run up to that level, then correction most likely to happen. And here will come decisive moment for both camps - Bulls and Bears. We also have present Virgin VPOC on 54890 from beginning of December, what is another confluence factor for Long.
And what only worries me, is Virgin VPOC from 30th September on 43100, which is the level below the current price (for the moment of writing analysis). Let's make some popcorn and see what happens next ;) Here comes handly VSA Scanner script, which will at earliest possibility warn us before potential Supply signals and Bears entering the market.
Options Data forecasting turning points and key levelsOptions are major weapon (if properly used) in toolset of Trader. Billions of dollars each day are floating on market and speculation here is an art. Art performed by Big Guys (aka Smart Money), where funds are often significantly higher in comparison to Futures Market. With help of Machine Learning algorithms, I load Options Flow data, parse and analyse it and extract to Quandl Dataset. From there, I load it via API to Tradingview and display results in indicators. And I trade with edge instruments from Futures Market.
This data doesn't need to be always used on Intraday timeframes. We can't forget about Big Picture aka Context. From D1 timeframe alongside with properly parsed Options Data, we're able to identify real key levels (not by using Price Action but by using Balance Points, where Volume of CALL options is equal to Volume of PUT options) - marked on DAX chart with red horizontal lines. Those are close prices of candles, on which indicator identified Balance Points (blue background on indicator). Demand always is trying to reach balance with Supply - therefore that's why it's even more important to observe such levels. I personally love to play retests of those levels and breakouts - especially when they happen after at least few days since initial Balance Point.
We can't forget about Pressure. Who is dominating at the market? This is the question that traders are asking themselves each session. Based on multiple factors, like: Put/Call Ratio, Strike Prices and Expirations of Options, Volume put on Options, Type of Options (ATM, ITM or OTM) - Machine Learning is allocating weigh ratio to those factors and return result identified on indicator by green/red area. Bigger Area show stronger Imbalance on market (aka one side dominates the market).
We have so many data around us, sorry - tons of data! We are unable to parse it and get insights manually. Here Machine Learning comes handy. I encourage you to deep dive into Options Market and combine it with picture, that Market draws you via chart. Market is based on emotions, so play what you see from moves of Big Players - which in majority believe me - are present on Options market.
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 12/12 - 12/17Big week ahead in terms of tapering updates. We are very bullish coming into the week for the following reasons:
1. The market has been made aware of Powell's true stance on inflation since he told everyone "we need to let go of the word transitory." We did sell off soon after to 4500 as the market received the news, but since then, everyone has had time to digest it, and we rallied sharply back to almost all time highs. to me, that says they're essentially "accepting" his plan and think that the market is strong enough to withstand the taper
2. Big big dark pool prints all last week even with the knowledge of tapering. This is very supportive for the market
Dec 15 will be very important. Powell can crush everyone's hopes and dreams if he comes out hawkish and speeds up his taper plan or increases the number of tapers. If this happens, our bias will change quickly.
$BABA highest IVR in this year = bullish Iron Condor #tradingAlibaba IVR is 170 without event?! No way.. I'm literally waiting these rocket IVR days in this year!
Chinese stocks are dumping hard. Alibaba Group is maybe the biggest and the best to play with some bullish IC.
Max profit: $230
Probability of 50%Profit: 81%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 30%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 170 (high for )
Expiry: 49 days
SETUP: IC for 2.3cr, because IVR ultra high
* Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 80 Put
* Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 90 Put
* Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 150 Call
* Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 160 Call
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200.
Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.92db
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
If you liked this article, check my other ideas.
Anyway: HIT THE LIKE BUTTON BELOW , and for fresh option ideas FOLLOW ME( @mrAnonymCrypto ) on tradingview !
#AVGO - PUT Opportunity#AVGO is at all time highs recently gapping up however if you pulled the FLOW on Unusual Whales yesterday the 13th you quickly saw that the FLOW was 73% bearish with extremely large PUTS and Sold Calls being placed against AVGO for this friday's experation played the $600 PUT and already mid way through the day am up 170%
After Dividends GIS Raised Prices...Will They CRUSH Earnings?Is GIS part of the global Supply Crunch? After several months our GIS retail play is holding up nicely but will they crush earnings? It seems they're poised to knock this out the park on 12 21, but anything could happen. Please DYOR before jumping in to GIS, read their prospectus & recent SEC filings, so there are no surprises. Full disclosure considering cutting bags here. We're done at the grocery store this quarter, & may look to rotate back into sectors that are down.