Options
Options Data forecasting turning points and key levelsOptions are major weapon (if properly used) in toolset of Trader. Billions of dollars each day are floating on market and speculation here is an art. Art performed by Big Guys (aka Smart Money), where funds are often significantly higher in comparison to Futures Market. With help of Machine Learning algorithms, I load Options Flow data, parse and analyse it and extract to Quandl Dataset. From there, I load it via API to Tradingview and display results in indicators. And I trade with edge instruments from Futures Market.
This data doesn't need to be always used on Intraday timeframes. We can't forget about Big Picture aka Context. From D1 timeframe alongside with properly parsed Options Data, we're able to identify real key levels (not by using Price Action but by using Balance Points, where Volume of CALL options is equal to Volume of PUT options) - marked on DAX chart with red horizontal lines. Those are close prices of candles, on which indicator identified Balance Points (blue background on indicator). Demand always is trying to reach balance with Supply - therefore that's why it's even more important to observe such levels. I personally love to play retests of those levels and breakouts - especially when they happen after at least few days since initial Balance Point.
We can't forget about Pressure. Who is dominating at the market? This is the question that traders are asking themselves each session. Based on multiple factors, like: Put/Call Ratio, Strike Prices and Expirations of Options, Volume put on Options, Type of Options (ATM, ITM or OTM) - Machine Learning is allocating weigh ratio to those factors and return result identified on indicator by green/red area. Bigger Area show stronger Imbalance on market (aka one side dominates the market).
We have so many data around us, sorry - tons of data! We are unable to parse it and get insights manually. Here Machine Learning comes handy. I encourage you to deep dive into Options Market and combine it with picture, that Market draws you via chart. Market is based on emotions, so play what you see from moves of Big Players - which in majority believe me - are present on Options market.
ES/SPX Weekly Plan | 12/12 - 12/17Big week ahead in terms of tapering updates. We are very bullish coming into the week for the following reasons:
1. The market has been made aware of Powell's true stance on inflation since he told everyone "we need to let go of the word transitory." We did sell off soon after to 4500 as the market received the news, but since then, everyone has had time to digest it, and we rallied sharply back to almost all time highs. to me, that says they're essentially "accepting" his plan and think that the market is strong enough to withstand the taper
2. Big big dark pool prints all last week even with the knowledge of tapering. This is very supportive for the market
Dec 15 will be very important. Powell can crush everyone's hopes and dreams if he comes out hawkish and speeds up his taper plan or increases the number of tapers. If this happens, our bias will change quickly.
$BABA highest IVR in this year = bullish Iron Condor #tradingAlibaba IVR is 170 without event?! No way.. I'm literally waiting these rocket IVR days in this year!
Chinese stocks are dumping hard. Alibaba Group is maybe the biggest and the best to play with some bullish IC.
Max profit: $230
Probability of 50%Profit: 81%
Profit Target relative to my Buying Power: 30%
Max loss with my risk management: ~$200
Req. Buy Power: $770 (max loss without management before expiry, no way to let this happen!)
Tasty IVR: 170 (high for )
Expiry: 49 days
SETUP: IC for 2.3cr, because IVR ultra high
* Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 80 Put
* Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 90 Put
* Sell 1 BABA Jan21' 150 Call
* Buy 1 BABA Jan21' 160 Call
Stop/my risk management : Closing immediately if daily candle is closing out of the the box, max loss in my calculations in this case could be ~$200.
Take profit strategy: 60% of max.profit in this case with auto buy order at 0.92db
Of course I'll not wait until expiry in any case!
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#AVGO - PUT Opportunity#AVGO is at all time highs recently gapping up however if you pulled the FLOW on Unusual Whales yesterday the 13th you quickly saw that the FLOW was 73% bearish with extremely large PUTS and Sold Calls being placed against AVGO for this friday's experation played the $600 PUT and already mid way through the day am up 170%
After Dividends GIS Raised Prices...Will They CRUSH Earnings?Is GIS part of the global Supply Crunch? After several months our GIS retail play is holding up nicely but will they crush earnings? It seems they're poised to knock this out the park on 12 21, but anything could happen. Please DYOR before jumping in to GIS, read their prospectus & recent SEC filings, so there are no surprises. Full disclosure considering cutting bags here. We're done at the grocery store this quarter, & may look to rotate back into sectors that are down.
$LOW | 12/13-12/17 | Watchlist #4 $LOW $260 bounce
(Bounce off 260 for calls)
Technical analysis: Bull flag breakout on the hourly chart
News catalyst: "Lowe's holds a Financial Outlook event. The home improvement retailer is expected to focus some of its commentary on operating margin opportunities. Expect some analysis following the event on whether or not Lowe's can close the margin gap with Home Depot (NYSE:HD). Shares of Lowe's jumped 6% last year after the event featured some strong guidance." - Seeking Alpha
$LCID | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 12/13$LCID 1D
Last week, we saw Lucid sell off on senior notes offering news. Bouncing off the GP, we may see potential bottom here. Wait for smaller degree wave 1-2 form first (green path) for some better confirmation. Also included a fractal path to note labelled in blue...